# Great Portland Estates (GPE.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GPE.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:36.873Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 323.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 343.14 per share, central GBX 389.76 per share, high GBX 451.81 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 389.76 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:41:36.873Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.5% at the stated quote. About 11.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 14.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.53×

- FY2018: 0.21×

- FY2019: 0.42×

- FY2020: 0.44×

- FY2021: 0.35×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: -3.09×

- FY2025: 1.32×

- FY2026: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 7.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 1.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 7.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 63.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 56.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 1.4%

- FY2018: 3.1%

- FY2019: 1.5%

- FY2020: 1.4%

- FY2021: 1.0%

- FY2022: 0.5%

- FY2023: 0.6%

- FY2024: -9.8%

- FY2025: 4.2%

- FY2026: 0.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP -110M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP -34M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -17.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -113.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -36.0%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: GBP -9.2M

- FY2023: GBP -17M

- FY2024: GBP -321M

- FY2025: GBP 100M

- FY2026: GBP 138M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1.5% vs 0.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.24 to 0.29 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 9.8%

- Market cap gain: GBP -263M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -951M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 9.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 2.5%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.24

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.29

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.80

- Average buyback yield: 10.4%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 22M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP -204M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 1.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 0.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP -0.46

- FY2018: GBP 0.24

- FY2019: GBP 0.19

- FY2020: GBP 0.20

- FY2021: GBP -0.80

- FY2022: GBP 0.66

- FY2023: GBP -0.65

- FY2024: GBP -0.84

- FY2025: GBP 0.29

- FY2026: GBP 0.38

### accounting: fail

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 6.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.77×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -0.20×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.3%

- FY2018: -5.4%

- FY2019: 0.8%

- FY2020: 0.5%

- FY2021: -8.5%

- FY2022: 5.8%

- FY2023: -6.5%

- FY2024: -12.1%

- FY2025: 4.0%

- FY2026: 6.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 49% since Jan 2022 · sales +25.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.009Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +25.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31/reports/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-06-02.

- FY2017: GBP 112M 

- FY2018: GBP 381M 

- FY2019: GBP 105M 

- FY2020: GBP 102M 

- FY2021: GBP 89M 

- FY2022: GBP 84M 

- FY2023: GBP 91M 

- FY2024: GBP 95M 

- FY2025: GBP 94M 

- FY2026: GBP 118M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 56.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31/reports/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-06-02.

- FY2017: 70.7% 

- FY2018: 27.4% 

- FY2019: 65.7% 

- FY2020: 71.3% 

- FY2021: 70.2% 

- FY2022: 61.9% 

- FY2023: 62.7% 

- FY2024: 65.1% 

- FY2025: 62.7% 

- FY2026: 56.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are GBP 117.9 million.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31/reports/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-06-02); FY2026: revenue 117900000; grossProfit 67000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 56.8% to 65.1% during 2024–26; it earns 1.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 65.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 62.7%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31/reports/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-06-02); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 56.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.014184418746195982],[2018,0.030699392722543538],[2019,0.015450855252352238],[2020,0.013835642802155504],[2021,0.009757388619320687],[2022,0.0054357943333705645],[2023,0.006479146060006594],[2024,-0.09793525846102037],[2025,0.0418864559192159],[2026,0.008283031525245819]]; median 0.011796515710738096. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 400000; owner earnings 70800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 100000; owner earnings 17460000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 100000; owner earnings 26800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 600000; owner earnings 99700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31/reports/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-06-02); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 200000; owner earnings 138180000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); Dividend observations: [[2017,31600000],[2018,143700000],[2019,32700000],[2020,33300000],[2021,31700000],[2022,32700000],[2023,31900000],[2024,32700000],[2025,31800000],[2026,31200000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GPE.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.117 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 15.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03348874715869582. Price 323.6; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.866339563195164 → FY2026 0.34255880369679903. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 424.08 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 433.72 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 477.27 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 442.29 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 462.64 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 465.14 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 494.05 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 453.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 426.23 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 429.79 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 432.29 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 436.22 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 443.72 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 442.29 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 491.55 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 474.77 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 448.36 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 552.93 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 579.09 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 572.95 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 593.21 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 594.45 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 599.10 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 555.59 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 579.34 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 576.60 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 547.29 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 607.57 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 632.57 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 619.86 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 626.59 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 597.03 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 567.96 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 549.53 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 578.09 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 622.77 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 653.99 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 689.86 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 714.11 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 773.23 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 699.66 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 565.64 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 561.99 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 540.56 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 524.79 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 489.58 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 501.20 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 497.38 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 479.12 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 533.59 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 554.68 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 541.72 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 563.31 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 564.48 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 575.44 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 598.69 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 589.14 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 633.56 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 648.09 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 619.86 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 607.82 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 594.95 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 604.50 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 632.32 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 565.06 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 591.21 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 568.38 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 544.71 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 475.79 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 514.41 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 413.52 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 365.36 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 426.80 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 413.68 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 411.03 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 472.89 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 471.64 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 420.99 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 443.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 401.39 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 344.60 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 355.06 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 348.92 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 346.92 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 323.84 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 317.53 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 348.75 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 346.26 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 299.43 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 322.01 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 325.50 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 345.50 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 335.50 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 350.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 336.50 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 356.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 313.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 302.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 288.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 288.50 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 273.50 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 297.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 310.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 338.50 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 358.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 339.50 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 305.50 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 318.50 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 333.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 319.50 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 318.50 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 374.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 347.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 283.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 309.20 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 312.40 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 332.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 349.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 337.60 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 311.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 323.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 1,883.11 per share, central GBX 2,141.67 per share, high GBX 2,485.86 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 7,931.52 per share, central GBX 10,955.95 per share, high GBX 12,832.25 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 225.22 per share, central GBX 249.12 per share, high GBX 280.93 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 213.43 per share, central GBX 237.80 per share, high GBX 270.23 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 74.67 per share, central GBX 84.45 per share, high GBX 97.48 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 66.33 per share, central GBX 74.66 per share, high GBX 85.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31/reports/213800JMEDD2Q4N1MC42-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.