# Group 1 Automotive (GPI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GPI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:51.551Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $239.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $850.32 per share, central $1,214.71 per share, high $1,426.89 per share. Buy at or below the central value $1,214.71 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:51.551Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 34.9% at the stated quote. About 34.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.7%

- FY2018: 8.3%

- FY2019: 7.6%

- FY2020: 12.7%

- FY2021: 21.3%

- FY2022: 21.6%

- FY2023: 15.0%

- FY2024: 11.2%

- FY2025: 10.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 9.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 28.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.3% vs 11.2%

- Per-share earnings: 6.95 to 37.60 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -6.5%

- Market cap gain: $3.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -6.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 23.5%

- Per-share value change: $30.65

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $6.95

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $37.60

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.27

- Average buyback yield: 7.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $6.95

- FY2017: $10.45

- FY2018: $8.11

- FY2019: $9.70

- FY2020: $16.09

- FY2021: $31.15

- FY2022: $48.50

- FY2023: $43.80

- FY2024: $37.60

- FY2025: $25.41

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.85×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.99×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.6%

- FY2017: 0.1%

- FY2018: -1.5%

- FY2019: -3.5%

- FY2020: -10.2%

- FY2021: -12.3%

- FY2022: 2.5%

- FY2023: 6.9%

- FY2024: 0.3%

- FY2025: -3.1%

## Holders

- [Greg Alexander](https://gigainvestors.com/CM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 48% since Aug 2025 · "Group 1 Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Vehicle Volumes" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -1.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:50.354Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 14.2% a year for ten years

- 2026-08-11: Group 1 Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Vehicle Volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/group-1-q2-earnings-miss-144300866.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -1.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031203/000103120326000064/gpi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: $11B 

- FY2018: $12B 

- FY2019: $12B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $16B 

- FY2023: $18B 

- FY2024: $20B 

- FY2025: $23B 

- FY2026: $22B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 15.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031203/000103120326000064/gpi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: 14.8% 

- FY2018: 14.9% 

- FY2019: 15.2% 

- FY2020: 16.4% 

- FY2021: 18.1% 

- FY2022: 18.3% 

- FY2023: 16.9% 

- FY2024: 16.3% 

- FY2025: 15.5% 

- FY2026: 15.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto & truck dealerships; annual sales are USD 22.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031203/000103120326000064/gpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 22571400000; grossProfit 3500800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GPI.US: Group 1 Automotive, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the automotive retail industry in the United States and the United Kingdom. The company sells new and used cars and light trucks through its dealerships and digital platform; and service and insurance contracts. It also engages in the wholesale of used vehicles at third-party auctions; wholesale and retail of vehicle and replacement parts; and arrangement of related vehicle financing. In addition, the company offers automotive maintenance and collision repair services. Group 1 Automotive, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.5% to 16.9% during 2023–25; it earns 11% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 16.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031203/000103120326000064/gpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.1072232578087717],[2018,0.08274554178004889],[2019,0.07620160290821178],[2020,0.127285156471846],[2021,0.21319506432921717],[2022,0.2155518932707424],[2023,0.149942246114672],[2024,0.11212891487197447],[2025,0.106288261988944],[2026,0.09725035047097098]]; median 0.1096760863403731. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 18% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031203/000103120326000064/gpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.18103531401360343],[2022,0.18278767853730404],[2023,0.16898012163122353]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 46% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 28.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 24230146.951269582; upkeep 132290853.04873042; owner earnings 66008146.95126958. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3670781270250997.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 23804906.42853698; upkeep 192027093.57146302; owner earnings 79272906.42853698. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.30029057216410565.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 50746097.82093777; upkeep 90286902.17906223; owner earnings 134613097.82093775. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3769774163316573.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 191800000; owner earnings 53800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 103200000; owner earnings 259100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 64700000; upkeep 78900000; owner earnings 552100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11718891505162109.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 66200000; upkeep 89300000; owner earnings 751500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08809048569527611.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 93400000; upkeep 92000000; owner earnings 601600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15525265957446807.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 132000000; upkeep 113100000; owner earnings 498200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2649538338016861.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031203/000103120326000064/gpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 148900000; upkeep 121100000; owner earnings 323700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.45999382143960454.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Incremental return on capital 0.28411304551066385, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,19987000],[2017,20466000],[2018,20872000],[2019,20300000],[2020,11000000],[2021,23900000],[2022,23700000],[2023,25200000],[2024,25200000],[2025,25600000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031203/000103120326000064/gpi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 554800000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GPI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.387 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 14.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 21.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.20935176181857623. Price 239.8; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.7135729403686146 → FY2025 25.413684857118092. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $60.27 per share

- 2016-11: $72.59 per share

- 2016-12: $77.94 per share

- 2017-01: $80.79 per share

- 2017-02: $77.69 per share

- 2017-03: $74.08 per share

- 2017-04: $68.95 per share

- 2017-05: $60.15 per share

- 2017-06: $63.32 per share

- 2017-07: $59.55 per share

- 2017-08: $60.02 per share

- 2017-09: $72.46 per share

- 2017-10: $78.57 per share

- 2017-11: $81.03 per share

- 2017-12: $70.97 per share

- 2018-01: $78.45 per share

- 2018-02: $68.84 per share

- 2018-03: $65.34 per share

- 2018-04: $65.35 per share

- 2018-05: $70.26 per share

- 2018-06: $63.00 per share

- 2018-07: $69.99 per share

- 2018-08: $77.09 per share

- 2018-09: $64.90 per share

- 2018-10: $57.74 per share

- 2018-11: $56.20 per share

- 2018-12: $52.72 per share

- 2019-01: $61.03 per share

- 2019-02: $62.18 per share

- 2019-03: $64.70 per share

- 2019-04: $78.31 per share

- 2019-05: $72.19 per share

- 2019-06: $81.89 per share

- 2019-07: $83.96 per share

- 2019-08: $74.72 per share

- 2019-09: $92.31 per share

- 2019-10: $99.44 per share

- 2019-11: $103.09 per share

- 2019-12: $100.00 per share

- 2020-01: $100.77 per share

- 2020-02: $85.23 per share

- 2020-03: $44.26 per share

- 2020-04: $56.59 per share

- 2020-05: $62.94 per share

- 2020-06: $65.97 per share

- 2020-07: $84.02 per share

- 2020-08: $86.44 per share

- 2020-09: $88.39 per share

- 2020-10: $106.08 per share

- 2020-11: $118.81 per share

- 2020-12: $131.14 per share

- 2021-01: $137.62 per share

- 2021-02: $152.44 per share

- 2021-03: $157.79 per share

- 2021-04: $164.16 per share

- 2021-05: $159.48 per share

- 2021-06: $154.43 per share

- 2021-07: $173.74 per share

- 2021-08: $165.44 per share

- 2021-09: $187.88 per share

- 2021-10: $179.80 per share

- 2021-11: $194.75 per share

- 2021-12: $195.22 per share

- 2022-01: $169.81 per share

- 2022-02: $181.93 per share

- 2022-03: $167.83 per share

- 2022-04: $174.14 per share

- 2022-05: $179.59 per share

- 2022-06: $169.80 per share

- 2022-07: $176.92 per share

- 2022-08: $178.59 per share

- 2022-09: $142.87 per share

- 2022-10: $173.00 per share

- 2022-11: $193.34 per share

- 2022-12: $180.37 per share

- 2023-01: $213.85 per share

- 2023-02: $221.07 per share

- 2023-03: $226.42 per share

- 2023-04: $224.48 per share

- 2023-05: $223.51 per share

- 2023-06: $258.10 per share

- 2023-07: $258.53 per share

- 2023-08: $264.42 per share

- 2023-09: $268.71 per share

- 2023-10: $252.33 per share

- 2023-11: $282.10 per share

- 2023-12: $304.74 per share

- 2024-01: $260.06 per share

- 2024-02: $270.65 per share

- 2024-03: $292.23 per share

- 2024-04: $294.02 per share

- 2024-05: $310.98 per share

- 2024-06: $297.28 per share

- 2024-07: $365.72 per share

- 2024-08: $376.76 per share

- 2024-09: $383.04 per share

- 2024-10: $364.32 per share

- 2024-11: $425.80 per share

- 2024-12: $421.48 per share

- 2025-01: $456.49 per share

- 2025-02: $459.58 per share

- 2025-03: $381.95 per share

- 2025-04: $403.63 per share

- 2025-05: $423.92 per share

- 2025-06: $436.71 per share

- 2025-07: $412.15 per share

- 2025-08: $464.78 per share

- 2025-09: $437.51 per share

- 2025-10: $397.54 per share

- 2025-11: $401.04 per share

- 2025-12: $393.30 per share

- 2026-01: $354.26 per share

- 2026-02: $325.74 per share

- 2026-03: $330.63 per share

- 2026-04: $356.87 per share

- 2026-05: $316.34 per share

- 2026-06: $291.17 per share

- 2026-07: $286.77 per share

- 2026-08: $269.54 per share

- 2026-09: $240.44 per share

- 2026-10: $239.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $53.42 per share, central $71.98 per share, high $84.32 per share

- FY2017: low $55.61 per share, central $74.70 per share, high $87.49 per share

- FY2018: low $64.11 per share, central $90.84 per share, high $106.66 per share

- FY2019: low $59.00 per share, central $79.22 per share, high $92.79 per share

- FY2020: low $46.37 per share, central $52.76 per share, high $61.27 per share

- FY2021: low $118.68 per share, central $167.62 per share, high $196.80 per share

- FY2022: low $347.93 per share, central $497.02 per share, high $583.84 per share

- FY2023: low $595.48 per share, central $850.65 per share, high $999.24 per share

- FY2024: low $688.44 per share, central $983.45 per share, high $1,155.24 per share

- FY2025: low $810.88 per share, central $1,158.36 per share, high $1,360.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1031203/000103120326000064/gpi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.