# Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GPK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:51.883Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $8.73 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.20 per share, central $10.45 per share, high $12.12 per share. Buy at or below the central value $10.45 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:51.883Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.5% at the stated quote. About 11.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 17.3%

- FY2018: 13.2%

- FY2019: 14.9%

- FY2020: 14.4%

- FY2021: 7.1%

- FY2022: 13.7%

- FY2023: 16.8%

- FY2024: 13.5%

- FY2025: 9.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 6.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.52×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 14.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 16.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 0.74×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.83×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.9% vs 13.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.71 to 2.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- Market cap gain: $532M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 14.9%

- Per-share value change: $1.45

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.71

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.16

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.01

- Average buyback yield: 2.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.71

- FY2017: $0.96

- FY2018: $0.71

- FY2019: $0.70

- FY2020: $0.60

- FY2021: $0.68

- FY2022: $1.69

- FY2023: $2.34

- FY2024: $2.16

- FY2025: $1.48

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.89×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.82×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.0%

- FY2017: -4.4%

- FY2018: 8.5%

- FY2019: -6.3%

- FY2020: -8.7%

- FY2021: -3.9%

- FY2022: -5.5%

- FY2023: -3.8%

- FY2024: -1.6%

- FY2025: -3.4%

## Holders

- [David Einhorn](https://gigainvestors.com/GLRE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 71% since Jul 2024 · "GPK Q1 Earnings Call: Consumer Weakness and Inflation Pressure Lead to Lower Guidance" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales +0.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:50.434Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-14: GPK Q1 Earnings Call: Consumer Weakness and Inflation Pressure Lead to Lower Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gpk-q1-earnings-call-consumer-220903571.html))

- 2025-07-29: Graphic Packaging expects $700M–$800M 2026 free cash flow as Waco investment nears completion ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4473663-graphic-packaging-expects-700m-800m-2026-free-cash-flow-as-waco-investment-nears-completion?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-09: Graphic Packaging downgraded by RBC on inflation, oversupply, cost overruns ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4503045-graphic-packaging-downgraded-by-rbc-on-inflation-oversupply-cost-overruns?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-05: Graphic Packaging (GPK) Soars 8.9% on Reaffirmed Growth Outlook Despite Dismal Q3 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/graphic-packaging-gpk-soars-8-113926687.html))

- 2025-12-09: Graphic Packaging slashes forecast as optimization plans unfold, shares fall ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4529545-graphic-packaging-slashes-forecast-as-optimization-plans-unfold-shares-fall?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-04: GPK Q4 Deep Dive: Margin Pressures and Cost Actions Define a Transitional Quarter ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gpk-q4-deep-dive-margin-053420562.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408075/000140807526000009/gpk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2017: $4.4B 

- FY2018: $6.0B 

- FY2019: $6.2B 

- FY2020: $6.6B 

- FY2021: $7.2B 

- FY2022: $9.4B 

- FY2023: $9.4B 

- FY2024: $8.8B 

- FY2025: $8.6B 

- FY2026: $8.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 15.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408075/000140807526000009/gpk-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-02.

- FY2017: 16.3% 

- FY2018: 15.8% 

- FY2019: 17.8% 

- FY2020: 17.3% 

- FY2021: 15.1% 

- FY2022: 19.3% 

- FY2023: 23.3% 

- FY2024: 22.7% 

- FY2025: 18.7% 

- FY2026: 15.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaging & containers; annual sales are USD 8.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408075/000140807526000009/gpk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: revenue 8617000000; grossProfit 1612000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.7% to 23.3% during 2023–25; it earns 13.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 23.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408075/000140807526000009/gpk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.17256433823529413],[2018,0.13168058158551404],[2019,0.14890602282028187],[2020,0.1436007510574734],[2021,0.0712005551700208],[2022,0.1370186836762872],[2023,0.16836201388816155],[2024,0.13537920502720702],[2025,0.0962494649148803],[2026,0.06800117750956726]]; median 0.13619894435174712. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 184 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 294600000; owner earnings 232700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 260100000; owner earnings 370400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 395200000; owner earnings 247831352.45901638. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 352900000; owner earnings 277024126.75549155. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2020: growth capex 170500000; upkeep 475800000; owner earnings 167300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.019127316198446.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2021: growth capex 313000000; upkeep 489000000; owner earnings 204000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5343137254901962.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 549000000; owner earnings 526000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 804000000; owner earnings 538000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1203000000; owner earnings 12000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408075/000140807526000009/gpk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 922000000; owner earnings 58000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,64400000],[2017,93400000],[2018,111000000],[2019,112700000],[2020,102800000],[2021,92000000],[2022,92000000],[2023,123000000],[2024,122000000],[2025,128000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408075/000140807526000009/gpk-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-02); FY2025: cash repurchases 184000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); GPK.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.547 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 13.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03232346623187185. Price 8.73; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8058663441185364 → FY2025 0.1934623082054703. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $12.50 per share

- 2016-11: $12.57 per share

- 2016-12: $12.48 per share

- 2017-01: $12.51 per share

- 2017-02: $13.35 per share

- 2017-03: $12.87 per share

- 2017-04: $13.58 per share

- 2017-05: $13.51 per share

- 2017-06: $13.78 per share

- 2017-07: $13.19 per share

- 2017-08: $13.05 per share

- 2017-09: $13.95 per share

- 2017-10: $15.49 per share

- 2017-11: $15.31 per share

- 2017-12: $15.45 per share

- 2018-01: $16.15 per share

- 2018-02: $15.31 per share

- 2018-03: $15.35 per share

- 2018-04: $14.30 per share

- 2018-05: $14.48 per share

- 2018-06: $14.51 per share

- 2018-07: $14.53 per share

- 2018-08: $14.22 per share

- 2018-09: $14.01 per share

- 2018-10: $11.01 per share

- 2018-11: $11.99 per share

- 2018-12: $10.64 per share

- 2019-01: $12.07 per share

- 2019-02: $12.18 per share

- 2019-03: $12.63 per share

- 2019-04: $13.88 per share

- 2019-05: $13.00 per share

- 2019-06: $13.98 per share

- 2019-07: $14.86 per share

- 2019-08: $13.81 per share

- 2019-09: $14.75 per share

- 2019-10: $15.66 per share

- 2019-11: $16.27 per share

- 2019-12: $16.65 per share

- 2020-01: $15.63 per share

- 2020-02: $13.52 per share

- 2020-03: $12.20 per share

- 2020-04: $13.35 per share

- 2020-05: $14.47 per share

- 2020-06: $13.99 per share

- 2020-07: $13.94 per share

- 2020-08: $13.98 per share

- 2020-09: $14.09 per share

- 2020-10: $13.29 per share

- 2020-11: $15.32 per share

- 2020-12: $16.94 per share

- 2021-01: $15.66 per share

- 2021-02: $15.87 per share

- 2021-03: $18.16 per share

- 2021-04: $18.55 per share

- 2021-05: $17.68 per share

- 2021-06: $18.14 per share

- 2021-07: $19.17 per share

- 2021-08: $20.52 per share

- 2021-09: $19.04 per share

- 2021-10: $19.93 per share

- 2021-11: $19.74 per share

- 2021-12: $19.50 per share

- 2022-01: $18.91 per share

- 2022-02: $20.58 per share

- 2022-03: $20.04 per share

- 2022-04: $21.80 per share

- 2022-05: $22.26 per share

- 2022-06: $20.50 per share

- 2022-07: $22.25 per share

- 2022-08: $22.27 per share

- 2022-09: $19.74 per share

- 2022-10: $22.96 per share

- 2022-11: $22.98 per share

- 2022-12: $22.25 per share

- 2023-01: $24.09 per share

- 2023-02: $23.80 per share

- 2023-03: $25.49 per share

- 2023-04: $24.66 per share

- 2023-05: $23.90 per share

- 2023-06: $24.03 per share

- 2023-07: $24.20 per share

- 2023-08: $22.24 per share

- 2023-09: $22.28 per share

- 2023-10: $21.51 per share

- 2023-11: $22.67 per share

- 2023-12: $24.65 per share

- 2024-01: $25.51 per share

- 2024-02: $25.95 per share

- 2024-03: $29.18 per share

- 2024-04: $25.85 per share

- 2024-05: $28.32 per share

- 2024-06: $26.21 per share

- 2024-07: $30.10 per share

- 2024-08: $29.93 per share

- 2024-09: $29.59 per share

- 2024-10: $28.26 per share

- 2024-11: $30.09 per share

- 2024-12: $27.16 per share

- 2025-01: $27.43 per share

- 2025-02: $26.68 per share

- 2025-03: $25.96 per share

- 2025-04: $25.31 per share

- 2025-05: $22.22 per share

- 2025-06: $21.07 per share

- 2025-07: $22.36 per share

- 2025-08: $22.27 per share

- 2025-09: $19.57 per share

- 2025-10: $15.99 per share

- 2025-11: $16.18 per share

- 2025-12: $15.06 per share

- 2026-01: $14.65 per share

- 2026-02: $12.23 per share

- 2026-03: $9.94 per share

- 2026-04: $9.53 per share

- 2026-05: $11.26 per share

- 2026-06: $10.57 per share

- 2026-07: $10.73 per share

- 2026-08: $11.20 per share

- 2026-09: $9.05 per share

- 2026-10: $8.73 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $7.01 per share, central $7.98 per share, high $9.26 per share

- FY2017: low $8.36 per share, central $9.51 per share, high $11.04 per share

- FY2018: low $11.51 per share, central $13.09 per share, high $15.20 per share

- FY2019: low $12.44 per share, central $14.15 per share, high $16.42 per share

- FY2020: low $12.20 per share, central $14.53 per share, high $16.90 per share

- FY2021: low $10.89 per share, central $12.38 per share, high $14.36 per share

- FY2022: low $17.04 per share, central $24.35 per share, high $28.60 per share

- FY2023: low $18.10 per share, central $25.08 per share, high $29.43 per share

- FY2024: low $8.99 per share, central $10.23 per share, high $11.89 per share

- FY2025: low $9.25 per share, central $10.49 per share, high $12.13 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:34.691Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1408075/000140807526000009/gpk-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.