# Greggs (GRG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GRG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:39:12.807Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 2,262.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 1,256.13 per share, central GBX 1,768.40 per share, high GBX 2,071.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,768.40 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:39:12.807Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.5% at the stated quote. About 8.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.09×

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 63.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 61.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 28.3%

- FY2017: 26.3%

- FY2018: 29.6%

- FY2019: 18.8%

- FY2020: 2.3%

- FY2021: 23.7%

- FY2022: 22.9%

- FY2023: 22.2%

- FY2024: 18.3%

- FY2025: 13.0%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.51×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 333M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 656M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 209.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -3.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: 0.60×

- FY2023: 0.55×

- FY2024: 0.46×

- FY2025: -0.02×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 28.3% vs 18.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.56 to 1.39 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Market cap gain: GBP 734M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 349M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.1%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.84

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.56

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 1.39

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 36M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 911M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 28.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.57

- FY2017: GBP 0.56

- FY2018: GBP 0.65

- FY2019: GBP 0.85

- FY2020: GBP -0.13

- FY2021: GBP 1.14

- FY2022: GBP 1.18

- FY2023: GBP 1.39

- FY2024: GBP 1.49

- FY2025: GBP 1.19

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -14.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.76×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -14.3%

- FY2017: -13.6%

- FY2018: -14.4%

- FY2019: -16.8%

- FY2020: -7.8%

- FY2021: -18.9%

- FY2022: -13.5%

- FY2023: -14.9%

- FY2024: -11.9%

- FY2025: -14.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 32% since Dec 2021 · "Greggs boss says there is ‘no doubt’ weight loss jabs are impacting business" (uk.finance.yahoo.com, Jan 2026) · sales +6.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.627Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-29: Greggs profits slide due to hot weather and cautious customers ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/greggs-profits-slide-due-hot-080832583.html))

- 2026-01-08: Greggs boss says there is ‘no doubt’ weight loss jabs are impacting business ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/greggs-boss-says-no-doubt-135430011.html))

- 2026-05-12: Greggs serves up stronger sales after rolling out new menu picks ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/greggs-serves-stronger-sales-rolling-065039739.html))

- 2026-09-30: Greggs shares jump 7% to 2-month high as profit outlook raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/greggs-raises-2026-outlook-summer-072955875.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +6.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800I71QMUFJ64IW20/2025-12-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800I71QMUFJ64IW20-2025-12-27/reports/213800I71QMUFJ64IW20-2025-12-27-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-15.

- FY2016: GBP 894M 

- FY2017: GBP 960M 

- FY2018: GBP 1.0B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2020: GBP 811M 

- FY2021: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2022: GBP 1.5B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2024: GBP 2.0B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 61.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800I71QMUFJ64IW20/2025-12-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800I71QMUFJ64IW20-2025-12-27/reports/213800I71QMUFJ64IW20-2025-12-27-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-15.

- FY2016: 63.7% 

- FY2017: 63.7% 

- FY2018: 63.7% 

- FY2019: 64.7% 

- FY2020: 63.1% 

- FY2021: 63.6% 

- FY2022: 61.7% 

- FY2023: 60.7% 

- FY2024: 61.7% 

- FY2025: 61.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are GBP 2.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2025: revenue 2151200000; grossProfit 1322100000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 60.7% to 61.7% during 2023–25; it earns 22.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 60.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 61.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 61.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.28300319205422825],[2017,0.2634548298137229],[2018,0.2958397534668721],[2019,0.1875696803729992],[2020,0.022747614917606244],[2021,0.23654150928868717],[2022,0.22859979534114117],[2023,0.22211093473706325],[2024,0.18311962414653193],[2025,0.1302942142021665]]; median 0.2253553650391022. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2016: growth capex 20113592.297109082; upkeep 53902407.70289092; owner earnings 49643592.29710908. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4051598880421948.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2017: growth capex 15167000; upkeep 53479000; owner earnings 56906000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.26652725547393946.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2018: growth capex 5500000; upkeep 55900000; owner earnings 65739000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08366418716439253.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 89100000; owner earnings 53260000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 54300000; owner earnings 113960000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 103300000; owner earnings 72240000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2023: growth capex 73100000; upkeep 125000000; owner earnings 78580000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9302621532196488.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2024: growth capex 100900000; upkeep 140000000; owner earnings 70380000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4336459221369708.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); Dividend observations: [[2016,30936000],[2017,32187000],[2018,33086000],[2019,72100000],[2020,38900000],[2021,15300000],[2022,98500000],[2023,60800000],[2024,106800000],[2025,70300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GRG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.093 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12262230530445853. Price 2262; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.4050350800017706 → FY2025 -0.024161751961790056. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 955.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 902.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 970.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 972.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 978.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 1,043.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 1,075.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,089.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 1,080.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,100.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,203.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,247.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 1,274.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,328.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,399.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,319.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,195.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,229.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,219.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,056.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 995.50 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,054.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 1,063.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,055.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 1,161.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,394.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,266.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,550.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 1,790.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 1,839.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 1,797.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 2,174.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 2,298.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 2,236.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 2,114.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 2,090.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 1,776.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 2,082.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,298.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 2,254.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 2,090.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,614.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 1,832.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 1,848.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 1,620.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,195.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,417.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 1,175.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 1,287.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 1,685.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 1,790.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,074.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,086.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,244.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,360.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 2,491.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,595.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 2,755.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 3,042.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 2,948.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 3,055.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 2,999.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 3,337.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 2,668.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 2,575.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 2,461.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 2,350.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,264.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,808.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 2,040.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 1,845.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 1,712.00 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 2,018.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 2,316.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 2,346.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 2,694.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 2,712.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 2,774.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 2,818.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 2,686.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 2,554.00 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 2,762.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 2,466.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 2,448.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 2,370.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 2,456.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 2,602.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 2,672.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 2,696.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 2,874.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 2,724.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 2,940.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 2,772.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 3,134.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 3,184.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 3,124.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 2,742.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 2,702.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 2,786.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 2,152.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 2,102.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 1,738.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 1,857.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 2,064.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 1,919.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 1,580.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 1,577.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 1,604.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 1,613.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 1,560.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 1,680.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 1,607.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 1,584.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 1,522.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 1,517.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 1,716.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 1,600.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 1,880.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 1,854.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 2,028.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 2,262.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 612.24 per share, central GBX 809.52 per share, high GBX 943.55 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 654.72 per share, central GBX 855.28 per share, high GBX 995.54 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 819.70 per share, central GBX 1,080.93 per share, high GBX 1,255.14 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 859.60 per share, central GBX 1,062.39 per share, high GBX 1,230.06 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 506.82 per share, central GBX 573.89 per share, high GBX 663.18 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 944.13 per share, central GBX 1,050.97 per share, high GBX 1,193.19 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 929.94 per share, central GBX 1,036.40 per share, high GBX 1,178.13 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 1,252.36 per share, central GBX 1,722.36 per share, high GBX 1,996.05 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 1,193.12 per share, central GBX 1,601.74 per share, high GBX 1,863.49 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 1,256.13 per share, central GBX 1,768.40 per share, high GBX 2,071.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800I71QMUFJ64IW20/2025-12-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800I71QMUFJ64IW20-2025-12-27/reports/213800I71QMUFJ64IW20-2025-12-27-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-27, filed 2026-04-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Greggs

GRG · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 2,262.00
Buy up to: GBX 1,768.40
Expected / yr: 8.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 28.7% around their average (limit 35%), and 1 loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 9.7%
Worst year: 2.0%
Latest · 2025: 8.5%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 22.5% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 13% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 22.5%
Worst year: 2.3%
Latest · 2025: 13.0%

Each $1 of profit left $0.51 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.51×
Annual median: 0.55×
Latest · 2025: -0.02×

Per-share value rose from 0.56 to 1.39, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 1.00
Worst year: GBP -0.13
Latest · 2025: GBP 1.19

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -14.5% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -14.4%
Worst year: -7.8%
Latest · 2025: -14.5%

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 9.1%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.48 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 955.50 · Value 809.52 · Buy at or below 809.52; 2016-11 · Price GBX 902.00 · Value 809.52 · Buy at or below 809.52; 2016-12 · Price GBX 970.00 · Value 809.52 · Buy at or below 809.52; 2017-01 · Price GBX 972.00 · Value 809.52 · Buy at or below 809.52; 2017-02 · Price GBX 978.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-03 · Price GBX 1043.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-04 · Price GBX 1075.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-05 · Price GBX 1089.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-06 · Price GBX 1080.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-07 · Price GBX 1100.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-08 · Price GBX 1203.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-09 · Price GBX 1247.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-10 · Price GBX 1274.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-11 · Price GBX 1328.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2017-12 · Price GBX 1399.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2018-01 · Price GBX 1319.00 · Value 855.28 · Buy at or below 855.28; 2018-02 · Price GBX 1195.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-03 · Price GBX 1229.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-04 · Price GBX 1219.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-05 · Price GBX 1056.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-06 · Price GBX 995.50 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-07 · Price GBX 1054.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-08 · Price GBX 1063.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-09 · Price GBX 1055.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-10 · Price GBX 1161.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-11 · Price GBX 1394.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2018-12 · Price GBX 1266.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2019-01 · Price GBX 1550.00 · Value 1080.93 · Buy at or below 1080.93; 2019-02 · Price GBX 1790.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-03 · Price GBX 1839.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-04 · Price GBX 1797.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-05 · Price GBX 2174.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-06 · Price GBX 2298.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-07 · Price GBX 2236.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-08 · Price GBX 2114.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-09 · Price GBX 2090.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-10 · Price GBX 1776.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-11 · Price GBX 2082.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2019-12 · Price GBX 2298.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2020-01 · Price GBX 2254.00 · Value 1062.39 · Buy at or below 1062.39; 2020-02 · Price GBX 2090.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-03 · Price GBX 1614.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-04 · Price GBX 1832.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-05 · Price GBX 1848.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-06 · Price GBX 1620.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-07 · Price GBX 1195.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-08 · Price GBX 1417.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-09 · Price GBX 1175.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-10 · Price GBX 1287.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-11 · Price GBX 1685.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2020-12 · Price GBX 1790.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2021-01 · Price GBX 2074.00 · Value 573.89 · Buy at or below 573.89; 2021-02 · Price GBX 2086.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-03 · Price GBX 2244.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-04 · Price GBX 2360.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-05 · Price GBX 2491.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-06 · Price GBX 2595.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-07 · Price GBX 2755.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-08 · Price GBX 3042.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-09 · Price GBX 2948.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-10 · Price GBX 3055.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-11 · Price GBX 2999.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2021-12 · Price GBX 3337.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2022-01 · Price GBX 2668.00 · Value 1050.97 · Buy at or below 1050.97; 2022-02 · Price GBX 2575.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-03 · Price GBX 2461.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-04 · Price GBX 2350.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-05 · Price GBX 2264.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-06 · Price GBX 1808.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-07 · Price GBX 2040.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-08 · Price GBX 1845.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-09 · Price GBX 1712.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-10 · Price GBX 2018.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-11 · Price GBX 2316.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2022-12 · Price GBX 2346.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2023-01 · Price GBX 2694.00 · Value 1036.40 · Buy at or below 1036.40; 2023-02 · Price GBX 2712.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-03 · Price GBX 2774.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-04 · Price GBX 2818.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-05 · Price GBX 2686.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-06 · Price GBX 2554.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-07 · Price GBX 2762.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-08 · Price GBX 2466.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-09 · Price GBX 2448.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-10 · Price GBX 2370.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-11 · Price GBX 2456.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2023-12 · Price GBX 2602.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2024-01 · Price GBX 2672.00 · Value 1722.36 · Buy at or below 1722.36; 2024-02 · Price GBX 2696.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-03 · Price GBX 2874.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-04 · Price GBX 2724.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-05 · Price GBX 2940.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-06 · Price GBX 2772.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-07 · Price GBX 3134.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-08 · Price GBX 3184.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-09 · Price GBX 3124.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-10 · Price GBX 2742.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-11 · Price GBX 2702.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2024-12 · Price GBX 2786.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2025-01 · Price GBX 2152.00 · Value 1601.74 · Buy at or below 1601.74; 2025-02 · Price GBX 2102.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-03 · Price GBX 1738.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-04 · Price GBX 1857.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-05 · Price GBX 2064.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-06 · Price GBX 1919.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-07 · Price GBX 1580.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-08 · Price GBX 1577.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-09 · Price GBX 1604.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-10 · Price GBX 1613.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-11 · Price GBX 1560.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2025-12 · Price GBX 1680.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-01 · Price GBX 1607.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-02 · Price GBX 1584.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-03 · Price GBX 1522.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-04 · Price GBX 1517.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-05 · Price GBX 1716.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-06 · Price GBX 1600.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-07 · Price GBX 1880.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-08 · Price GBX 1854.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-09 · Price GBX 2028.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-10 · Price GBX 2262.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40; 2026-10 · Price GBX 2262.00 · Value 1768.40 · Buy at or below 1768.40

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 1,256.13 – GBX 2,071.80
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 1,768.40
Discount to value	1 − 2262.00 / 1768.40 = -27.9%
Return / year	About 8.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 91.13/share; 7.7% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 27.10/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 2.2B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP -2.5M

Owner earnings

Operating margin8.5%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -404M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares103M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·