# Goosehead Insurance (GSHD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GSHD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:53.718Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $45.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.99 per share, central $11.37 per share, high $13.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value $11.37 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:53.718Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.7% at the stated quote. About 4.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 1.54×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.15×

- FY2017: 0.26×

- FY2018: -0.30×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 53.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 24.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 53.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 100.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 46.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: -62.6%

- FY2019: 28.7%

- FY2020: 20.2%

- FY2021: 4.6%

- FY2022: 2.3%

- FY2023: 18.6%

- FY2024: 43.9%

- FY2025: 29.3%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.17×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $91M

- Net income, five-year total: $78M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 151.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 12.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.52×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.33×

- FY2025: 1.20×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 291.1% vs 29.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.13 to 0.73 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 15.7%

- Market cap gain: $2.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$127M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 15.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 27.3%

- Per-share value change: $0.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.73

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 2.2%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $96M

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 29.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.13

- FY2017: $0.25

- FY2018: -$0.66

- FY2019: $0.22

- FY2020: $0.51

- FY2021: $0.26

- FY2022: $0.03

- FY2023: $0.37

- FY2024: $0.79

- FY2025: $0.73

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -15.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 25.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.30×

- Accounting red flags: 1

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.7%

- FY2017: -29.1%

- FY2018: -55.1%

- FY2019: -27.3%

- FY2020: -8.3%

- FY2021: -11.1%

- FY2022: -11.0%

- FY2023: -10.3%

- FY2024: -10.3%

- FY2025: -15.4%

## Holders

- [Chuck Akre](https://gigainvestors.com/AC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 68% since Oct 2021 · sales +16.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:50.954Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.6% a year for ten years

- 2026-07-23: Goosehead outlines 2026 total revenue growth of 12%-19% as CEO transition set for year-end ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4617165-goosehead-outlines-2026-total-revenue-growth-of-12-percentminus-19-percent-as-ceo-transition?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +16.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1726978/000172697826000010/gshd-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $31M 

- FY2017: $43M 

- FY2018: $60M 

- FY2019: $77M 

- FY2020: $117M 

- FY2021: $151M 

- FY2022: $209M 

- FY2023: $261M 

- FY2024: $315M 

- FY2025: $365M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 46.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1726978/000172697826000010/gshd-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: 42.5% 

- FY2024: 45.0% 

- FY2025: 46.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in insurance brokers; annual sales are USD 365.3 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1726978/000172697826000010/gshd-20251231.htm#000172697826000010 (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 365304000; grossProfit 168940000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); GSHD.US: Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that engages in the provision of personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company offers insurance service for homeowner's; automotive; dwelling property; flood, wind, and earthquake; excess liability or umbrella; general liability, and property and auto insurance for small businesses; life insurance; and motorcycle, recreational vehicle, and other insurance policies. It distributes its products and services through corporate and franchise locations. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 45% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 24.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1726978/000172697826000010/gshd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 46.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,2.911178377383864],[2017,3.359113139656996],[2018,-0.62558549943493],[2019,0.2869858469703671],[2020,0.20151935586589637],[2021,0.04602000536542368],[2022,0.022922038186781075],[2023,0.1863845518543281],[2024,0.4389056822198382],[2025,0.2926465863736765]]; median 0.24425260141813174. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back USD 81.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 675715; owner earnings 4535146. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 1156106.4333102405; upkeep 5295215.5666897595; owner earnings 4257732.4333102405. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.271531020659137.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 1952000; upkeep 2145000; owner earnings 3567000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5472385758340342.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 6243216.422791997; upkeep 4124783.577208003; owner earnings 8732216.422791997. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7149635465397479.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 7714541.622597221; upkeep 7692458.377402779; owner earnings 2827541.6225972213. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.7283565203581603.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 5505000; upkeep 7109000; owner earnings 565000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 9.743362831858407.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 2688000; upkeep 9469000; owner earnings 14140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1900990099009901.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 979000; owner earnings 40402000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1726978/000172697826000010/gshd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 5671000; owner earnings 33430000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,25520000],[2017,25520000],[2018,80059000],[2019,18739000],[2020,44697000],[2021,60000000],[2022,5206000],[2023,10939000],[2024,0],[2025,145786000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1726978/000172697826000010/gshd-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 81720000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); GSHD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.58 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 18.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.256682290217795. Price 45.6; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-04: $14.80 per share

- 2018-05: $16.15 per share

- 2018-06: $24.96 per share

- 2018-07: $27.17 per share

- 2018-08: $31.02 per share

- 2018-09: $33.87 per share

- 2018-10: $34.28 per share

- 2018-11: $25.42 per share

- 2018-12: $26.29 per share

- 2019-01: $28.74 per share

- 2019-02: $31.55 per share

- 2019-03: $27.88 per share

- 2019-04: $30.47 per share

- 2019-05: $36.63 per share

- 2019-06: $47.80 per share

- 2019-07: $45.01 per share

- 2019-08: $46.24 per share

- 2019-09: $49.35 per share

- 2019-10: $51.18 per share

- 2019-11: $40.52 per share

- 2019-12: $42.40 per share

- 2020-01: $52.18 per share

- 2020-02: $54.24 per share

- 2020-03: $44.63 per share

- 2020-04: $56.14 per share

- 2020-05: $59.95 per share

- 2020-06: $75.16 per share

- 2020-07: $103.33 per share

- 2020-08: $102.76 per share

- 2020-09: $86.59 per share

- 2020-10: $122.54 per share

- 2020-11: $123.11 per share

- 2020-12: $124.76 per share

- 2021-01: $133.60 per share

- 2021-02: $129.54 per share

- 2021-03: $107.18 per share

- 2021-04: $109.94 per share

- 2021-05: $89.87 per share

- 2021-06: $127.30 per share

- 2021-07: $120.19 per share

- 2021-08: $146.78 per share

- 2021-09: $152.29 per share

- 2021-10: $144.30 per share

- 2021-11: $131.32 per share

- 2021-12: $130.08 per share

- 2022-01: $98.58 per share

- 2022-02: $86.98 per share

- 2022-03: $78.57 per share

- 2022-04: $57.49 per share

- 2022-05: $51.78 per share

- 2022-06: $45.67 per share

- 2022-07: $56.21 per share

- 2022-08: $52.00 per share

- 2022-09: $35.64 per share

- 2022-10: $41.51 per share

- 2022-11: $40.61 per share

- 2022-12: $34.34 per share

- 2023-01: $39.05 per share

- 2023-02: $46.65 per share

- 2023-03: $52.20 per share

- 2023-04: $57.50 per share

- 2023-05: $55.18 per share

- 2023-06: $62.89 per share

- 2023-07: $66.87 per share

- 2023-08: $69.86 per share

- 2023-09: $74.53 per share

- 2023-10: $64.87 per share

- 2023-11: $73.28 per share

- 2023-12: $75.80 per share

- 2024-01: $77.20 per share

- 2024-02: $75.65 per share

- 2024-03: $66.62 per share

- 2024-04: $56.91 per share

- 2024-05: $64.50 per share

- 2024-06: $57.44 per share

- 2024-07: $90.29 per share

- 2024-08: $84.34 per share

- 2024-09: $89.30 per share

- 2024-10: $108.90 per share

- 2024-11: $126.12 per share

- 2024-12: $107.22 per share

- 2025-01: $107.17 per share

- 2025-02: $123.21 per share

- 2025-03: $118.06 per share

- 2025-04: $97.21 per share

- 2025-05: $108.26 per share

- 2025-06: $105.51 per share

- 2025-07: $90.91 per share

- 2025-08: $84.71 per share

- 2025-09: $74.42 per share

- 2025-10: $68.67 per share

- 2025-11: $71.55 per share

- 2025-12: $73.65 per share

- 2026-01: $61.84 per share

- 2026-02: $54.20 per share

- 2026-03: $42.66 per share

- 2026-04: $44.79 per share

- 2026-05: $34.39 per share

- 2026-06: $48.50 per share

- 2026-07: $62.00 per share

- 2026-08: $68.65 per share

- 2026-09: $45.36 per share

- 2026-10: $45.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $5.19 per share, central $5.91 per share, high $6.86 per share

- FY2021: low $3.66 per share, central $4.16 per share, high $4.83 per share

- FY2022: low $1.96 per share, central $2.24 per share, high $2.60 per share

- FY2023: low $3.43 per share, central $3.90 per share, high $4.53 per share

- FY2024: low $4.86 per share, central $5.53 per share, high $6.42 per share

- FY2025: low $5.67 per share, central $6.45 per share, high $7.49 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1726978/000172697826000010/gshd-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.