Margins varied 9.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 23.1%
- Worst year
- 18.0%
- Latest · LTM
- 24.1%
# GSK (GSK.LSE) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GSK.LSE Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:41.426Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026. Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP. ## Verdict A wonderful business at too high a price Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: GBX 1,868.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low GBX 1,460.52 per share, central GBX 1,653.50 per share, high GBX 1,910.38 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,653.50 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:41.426Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 9.1% at the stated quote. About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 1 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.10× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.26× - FY2018: 0.26× - FY2019: 0.23× - FY2020: 0.24× - FY2021: 0.22× - FY2022: 0.23× - FY2023: 0.23× - FY2024: 0.18× - FY2025: 0.22× - LTM to Jun 2026: 0.24× ### moat: pass - ROIC, median of available years: 30.7% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.1% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.3 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 67.8% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 70.1% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 7.5% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.0% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 49.5% - FY2017: 70.3% - FY2018: 33.5% - FY2019: 24.6% - FY2020: 30.0% - FY2021: 21.5% - FY2022: 34.6% - FY2023: 31.3% - FY2024: 24.1% - FY2025: 25.5% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 33B - Net income, five-year total: GBP 33B - Return on incremental invested capital: 164.5% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.2 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 26.9% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: 0.77× - FY2022: 0.99× - FY2023: 0.95× - FY2024: 0.89× - FY2025: 1.40× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 49.5% vs 25.5% - Per-share earnings: 0.39 to 1.20 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.3% - Market cap gain: GBP 13B - Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 16B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.3% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025 - Per-share value growth: 15.0% - Per-share value change: GBP 0.81 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.39 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 1.20 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.90 - Average buyback yield: 1.1% - Buyback history: 5 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Acquisition spending: GBP 24B - Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 49B - ROIC, first three-year median: 49.5% - ROIC, last three-year median: 25.5% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: GBP 0.23 - FY2017: GBP 0.39 - FY2018: GBP 0.91 - FY2019: GBP 1.16 - FY2020: GBP 1.43 - FY2021: GBP 1.35 - FY2022: GBP 3.66 - FY2023: GBP 1.20 - FY2024: GBP 0.62 - FY2025: GBP 1.40 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -2.6% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.1% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 1.28× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.45× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -9.5% - FY2017: -9.6% - FY2018: -8.3% - FY2019: -4.2% - FY2020: -3.3% - FY2021: -4.5% - FY2022: 12.6% - FY2023: -3.1% - FY2024: -6.7% - FY2025: -2.6% ## Holders - [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Price needs cash profits to grow 2.5% a year for ten years · "GSK Lifts Outlook As Specialty Medicines, Vaccines Fuel Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales +1.6% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.243Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 2.5% a year for ten years - 2025-07-30: GSK Lifts Outlook As Specialty Medicines, Vaccines Fuel Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gsk-lifts-outlook-specialty-medicines-132107860.html)) - 2025-08-11: GSK climbs after winning FDA priority review for oral gonorrhoea antibiotic ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gsk-climbs-winning-fda-priority-081959837.html)) - 2026-02-10: EU Nucala COPD Approval Gives GSK Another Respiratory Growth Test ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-nucala-copd-approval-gives-231157622.html)) - 2026-06-10: GSK Buys Nuvalent To Deepen Oncology Focus And Future Lung Cancer Revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/gsk-buys-nuvalent-deepen-oncology-051045524.html)) ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +1.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31/reports/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-10. - FY2017: GBP 30B - FY2018: GBP 31B - FY2019: GBP 34B - FY2020: GBP 34B - FY2021: GBP 25B - FY2022: GBP 29B - FY2023: GBP 30B - FY2024: GBP 31B - FY2025: GBP 33B - FY2026: GBP 33B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 72.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31/reports/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31-T01.html; observed 2026-03-10. - FY2016: 66.1% - FY2017: 66.5% - FY2018: 67.9% - FY2019: 67.8% - FY2020: 67.8% - FY2021: 66.2% - FY2022: 66.4% - FY2023: 70.1% - FY2024: 69.8% - FY2025: 72.5% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in drug manufacturers general; annual sales are GBP 32.7 billion. - Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31/reports/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: revenue 32667000000; grossProfit 23698000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GSK.LSE: GSK plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, and manufacture of vaccines, specialty medicines, and general medicines to prevent and treat disease in the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates through Commercial Operations and Total R&D segments. The company offers specialty medicines that include oncology, respiratory/immunology, inflammation, and inhaled medicines for HIV, respiratory eosinophildriven diseases, lupus and lupus nephritis, ovarian cancer, and endometrial cancer. It also provides vaccines for Shingles, Meningitis, RSV, Seasonal Influenza, Hepatitis, Diphtheria, Tetanus, Acellular Pertussis, Rotavirus, Pertussis, Polio, Haemophilus, Invasive Diseases, Pneumonia, Acute Otitis Media, Measles, Mumps, Rubella and Chickenpox, and Human Papilloma Virus. Additionally, the company offers general medicines for asthma, COPD, bacterial infection, benign prostatic hyperplasia, allergic rhinitis, and inflammatory skin conditions. It also focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of oral small molecule therapies for patients with unmet needs in oncology and inflammatory diseases. It has a collaboration agreement with CureVac to develop mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases; and strategic research collaboration with Engitix Ltd. to identify and validate novel therapeutic targets driving liver fibrosis regression. The company has a strategic alliance with AN2 Therapeutics, Inc. for the development of new therapies for TB. GSK plc was formerly known as GlaxoSmithKline plc and changed its name to GSK plc in May 2022. The company was founded in 1715 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 69.8% to 72.5% during 2023–25; it earns 30.7% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 70.1%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 69.8%. - Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31/reports/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 72.5%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.4953140689501283],[2017,0.7026979392624729],[2018,0.3354806655720304],[2019,0.24624382447464888],[2020,0.3004351720342252],[2021,0.2151644226905683],[2022,0.3464947531350483],[2023,0.31291183919930926],[2024,0.2407421247388692],[2025,0.2546763374650176]]; median 0.3066735056167672. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 1.4 billion of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2016: growth capex 578000000; upkeep 1774000000; owner earnings 912000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6337719298245614. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2017: growth capex 280000000; upkeep 1922000000; owner earnings 1532000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18276762402088773. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1796000000; owner earnings 3683000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 2163000000; owner earnings 4566000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2239000000; owner earnings 5637600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2931000000; owner earnings 3373000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2022: growth capex 111000000; upkeep 2147000000; owner earnings 14754400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.007523179526107466. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: growth capex 50000000; upkeep 2294000000; owner earnings 4686600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.010668715059958178. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: growth capex 363092549.638463; upkeep 2618907450.361537; owner earnings 2286692549.638463. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15878503198686228. - Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31/reports/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1348000000; owner earnings 7980000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,4850000000],[2017,3906000000],[2018,3927000000],[2019,3953000000],[2020,3977000000],[2021,3999000000],[2022,3467000000],[2023,2247000000],[2024,2444000000],[2025,2564000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31/reports/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 1377000000 GBP. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 1.7% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GSK.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.7469999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What could break it The 2025 information underlying the Responsible Business Performance Rating is subject to independent limited assurance by Deloitte. - Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31/reports/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31-T01.html (filed 2026-03-10); Long-term targets3 – 80% absolute reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from a 2020 baseline, across all scopes, and investment in nature-based solutions for the remaining 20% of our footprint by 2030 – Net zero greenhouse gas emissions across our full value chain by 2045: 90% absolute reduction in emissions from a 2020 baseline, across all scopes, and all residual emissions neutralised – 100% renewably imported and generated electricity by 2030 (Scope 2) Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) page 69 (1) These metrics are related to the Responsible Business Performance Rating 2025. The 2025 information underlying the Responsible Business Performance Rating is subject to independent limited assurance by Deloitte. See Responsible Business Report 2025 for more information. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 2.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.1%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.022580307261481407. Price 1868.5; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.1760024803637865 → FY2025 1.9530102790014685. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share) - 2016-11: GBX 1,506.50 per share - 2016-12: GBX 1,573.49 per share - 2017-01: GBX 1,539.24 per share - 2017-02: GBX 1,660.13 per share - 2017-03: GBX 1,671.71 per share - 2017-04: GBX 1,561.40 per share - 2017-05: GBX 1,716.03 per share - 2017-06: GBX 1,647.53 per share - 2017-07: GBX 1,525.64 per share - 2017-08: GBX 1,544.78 per share - 2017-09: GBX 1,499.45 per share - 2017-10: GBX 1,367.49 per share - 2017-11: GBX 1,288.91 per share - 2017-12: GBX 1,332.23 per share - 2018-01: GBX 1,330.12 per share - 2018-02: GBX 1,316.82 per share - 2018-03: GBX 1,404.26 per share - 2018-04: GBX 1,472.15 per share - 2018-05: GBX 1,535.21 per share - 2018-06: GBX 1,541.06 per share - 2018-07: GBX 1,593.24 per share - 2018-08: GBX 1,571.88 per share - 2018-09: GBX 1,548.11 per share - 2018-10: GBX 1,522.32 per share - 2018-11: GBX 1,633.53 per share - 2018-12: GBX 1,502.17 per share - 2019-01: GBX 1,488.07 per share - 2019-02: GBX 1,508.42 per share - 2019-03: GBX 1,608.55 per share - 2019-04: GBX 1,584.98 per share - 2019-05: GBX 1,538.24 per share - 2019-06: GBX 1,588.20 per share - 2019-07: GBX 1,715.13 per share - 2019-08: GBX 1,724.19 per share - 2019-09: GBX 1,757.44 per share - 2019-10: GBX 1,781.61 per share - 2019-11: GBX 1,766.91 per share - 2019-12: GBX 1,792.09 per share - 2020-01: GBX 1,797.13 per share - 2020-02: GBX 1,573.69 per share - 2020-03: GBX 1,525.74 per share - 2020-04: GBX 1,673.22 per share - 2020-05: GBX 1,684.10 per share - 2020-06: GBX 1,648.64 per share - 2020-07: GBX 1,541.06 per share - 2020-08: GBX 1,482.83 per share - 2020-09: GBX 1,462.68 per share - 2020-10: GBX 1,301.30 per share - 2020-11: GBX 1,380.08 per share - 2020-12: GBX 1,351.87 per share - 2021-01: GBX 1,366.98 per share - 2021-02: GBX 1,199.56 per share - 2021-03: GBX 1,297.48 per share - 2021-04: GBX 1,349.46 per share - 2021-05: GBX 1,354.09 per share - 2021-06: GBX 1,429.84 per share - 2021-07: GBX 1,428.23 per share - 2021-08: GBX 1,472.76 per share - 2021-09: GBX 1,413.93 per share - 2021-10: GBX 1,519.70 per share - 2021-11: GBX 1,536.22 per share - 2021-12: GBX 1,618.42 per share - 2022-01: GBX 1,655.09 per share - 2022-02: GBX 1,556.77 per share - 2022-03: GBX 1,659.32 per share - 2022-04: GBX 1,810.22 per share - 2022-05: GBX 1,745.35 per share - 2022-06: GBX 1,778.59 per share - 2022-07: GBX 1,727.60 per share - 2022-08: GBX 1,379.40 per share - 2022-09: GBX 1,305.80 per share - 2022-10: GBX 1,428.80 per share - 2022-11: GBX 1,406.80 per share - 2022-12: GBX 1,437.60 per share - 2023-01: GBX 1,423.40 per share - 2023-02: GBX 1,425.40 per share - 2023-03: GBX 1,429.00 per share - 2023-04: GBX 1,441.00 per share - 2023-05: GBX 1,346.40 per share - 2023-06: GBX 1,388.80 per share - 2023-07: GBX 1,384.60 per share - 2023-08: GBX 1,388.80 per share - 2023-09: GBX 1,492.00 per share - 2023-10: GBX 1,457.40 per share - 2023-11: GBX 1,419.40 per share - 2023-12: GBX 1,450.20 per share - 2024-01: GBX 1,568.00 per share - 2024-02: GBX 1,664.60 per share - 2024-03: GBX 1,708.60 per share - 2024-04: GBX 1,673.00 per share - 2024-05: GBX 1,766.50 per share - 2024-06: GBX 1,529.50 per share - 2024-07: GBX 1,512.00 per share - 2024-08: GBX 1,657.00 per share - 2024-09: GBX 1,516.50 per share - 2024-10: GBX 1,392.50 per share - 2024-11: GBX 1,335.00 per share - 2024-12: GBX 1,346.50 per share - 2025-01: GBX 1,405.00 per share - 2025-02: GBX 1,466.50 per share - 2025-03: GBX 1,462.00 per share - 2025-04: GBX 1,483.50 per share - 2025-05: GBX 1,507.00 per share - 2025-06: GBX 1,390.00 per share - 2025-07: GBX 1,418.00 per share - 2025-08: GBX 1,452.50 per share - 2025-09: GBX 1,574.50 per share - 2025-10: GBX 1,780.50 per share - 2025-11: GBX 1,791.00 per share - 2025-12: GBX 1,824.50 per share - 2026-01: GBX 1,876.50 per share - 2026-02: GBX 2,201.00 per share - 2026-03: GBX 2,064.00 per share - 2026-04: GBX 1,928.50 per share - 2026-05: GBX 1,881.50 per share - 2026-06: GBX 1,981.00 per share - 2026-07: GBX 1,931.50 per share - 2026-08: GBX 1,853.50 per share - 2026-09: GBX 1,832.00 per share - 2026-10: GBX 1,753.00 per share ## Annual estimated value (GBX per share) - FY2016: low GBX 1,410.25 per share, central GBX 1,589.17 per share, high GBX 1,827.34 per share - FY2017: low GBX 996.81 per share, central GBX 1,122.60 per share, high GBX 1,290.04 per share - FY2018: low GBX 999.11 per share, central GBX 1,125.29 per share, high GBX 1,293.27 per share - FY2019: low GBX 1,194.69 per share, central GBX 1,345.99 per share, high GBX 1,547.40 per share - FY2020: low GBX 1,252.80 per share, central GBX 1,422.04 per share, high GBX 1,630.46 per share - FY2021: low GBX 1,237.24 per share, central GBX 1,392.36 per share, high GBX 1,598.85 per share - FY2022: low GBX 1,243.39 per share, central GBX 1,390.93 per share, high GBX 1,587.34 per share - FY2023: low GBX 1,350.56 per share, central GBX 1,522.08 per share, high GBX 1,750.42 per share - FY2024: low GBX 1,353.01 per share, central GBX 1,529.30 per share, high GBX 1,763.97 per share - FY2025: low GBX 1,411.70 per share, central GBX 1,597.89 per share, high GBX 1,845.74 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:28.682Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31/reports/5493000HZTVUYLO1D793-2025-12-31-T01.html); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-10. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
← Companies
GSK
GSK · LSE
FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600
A wonderful business at too high a price
Passes the quality tests.
- Share price
- GBX 1,868.50
- Buy up to
- GBX 1,653.50
- Expected / yr
- 9.1% at today's price (10.0% at central value)
The business
- How it makes money
- Why customers stay
- Where the cash goes
- Are managers owners
- What could break it
- What the price says
1. Is this a good business?
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 30.7% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 24.1% (minimum 10%).
- 10y median
- 30.7%
- Worst year
- 21.5%
- Latest · 2025
- 25.5%
Each $1 of profit left $1.02 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
- Five-year totals
- 1.02×
- Annual median
- 0.95×
- Latest · 2025
- 1.40×
Per-share value rose from 0.39 to 1.2, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
- 10y median
- GBP 1.18
- Worst year
- GBP 0.23
- Latest · 2025
- GBP 1.40
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -2.6% of assets (limit 10%).
- 10y median
- -4.4%
- Worst year
- 12.6%
- Latest · 2025
- -2.6%
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 23.2%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.21 GBP.
2. Is the price low enough?
| Value range | GBX 1,460.52 – GBX 1,910.38 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value GBX 1,653.50 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 1868.50 / 1653.50 = -13.0% |
| Return / year | About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash GBX 128.05/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 60.94/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |
RevenueGBP 33B
FY2017 · Revenue: GBP 30B; FY2018 · Revenue: GBP 31B; FY2019 · Revenue: GBP 34B; FY2020 · Revenue: GBP 34B; FY2021 · Revenue: GBP 25B; FY2022 · Revenue: GBP 29B; FY2023 · Revenue: GBP 30B; FY2024 · Revenue: GBP 31B; FY2025 · Revenue: GBP 33B; FY2026 · Revenue: GBP 33B
Owner earningsGBP 8.0B
FY2016 · Owner earnings: GBP 912M; FY2017 · Owner earnings: GBP 1.5B; FY2018 · Owner earnings: GBP 3.7B; FY2019 · Owner earnings: GBP 4.6B; FY2020 · Owner earnings: GBP 5.6B; FY2021 · Owner earnings: GBP 3.4B; FY2022 · Owner earnings: GBP 15B; FY2023 · Owner earnings: GBP 4.7B; FY2024 · Owner earnings: GBP 2.3B; FY2025 · Owner earnings: GBP 8.0B
Operating margin24.1%
FY2017 · Operating margin: 26.4%; FY2018 · Operating margin: 26.0%; FY2019 · Operating margin: 23.1%; FY2020 · Operating margin: 24.0%; FY2021 · Operating margin: 21.9%; FY2022 · Operating margin: 22.8%; FY2023 · Operating margin: 23.1%; FY2024 · Operating margin: 18.0%; FY2025 · Operating margin: 21.9%; FY2026 · Operating margin: 24.1%
Net cash / debtGBP -15B
FY2016 · Net cash / debt: GBP -14B; FY2017 · Net cash / debt: GBP -13B; FY2018 · Net cash / debt: GBP -22B; FY2019 · Net cash / debt: GBP -26B; FY2020 · Net cash / debt: GBP -21B; FY2021 · Net cash / debt: GBP -20B; FY2022 · Net cash / debt: GBP -13B; FY2023 · Net cash / debt: GBP -13B; FY2024 · Net cash / debt: GBP -13B; FY2025 · Net cash / debt: GBP -15B
Diluted shares4.1B
FY2016 · Diluted shares: 3.9B; FY2017 · Diluted shares: 3.9B; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 4.0B; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 4.0B; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 4.0B; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 3.2B; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 4.1B; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 4.1B; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 4.1B; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 4.1B
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·