# Garrett Motion (GTX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GTX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:55.198Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $24.45 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $21.13 per share, central $23.99 per share, high $27.78 per share. Buy at or below the central value $23.99 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:55.198Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.9% at the stated quote. About 9.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.14×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.11×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: >100%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 71.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 4

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 42.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: 91.6%

- FY2022: 57.6%

- FY2023: 72.5%

- FY2024: 71.6%

- FY2025: >100%

- LTM to Mar 2026: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 0.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.09×

- LTM to Mar 2026: 1.08×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 100.0% vs 72.5%

- Per-share earnings: 2.69 to 1.52 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 10.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 21.8%

- Market cap gain: $2.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 10.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 21.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -6.9%

- Per-share value change: -$1.16

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.52

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.80

- Average buyback yield: 35.8%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 72.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.69

- FY2017: -$13.27

- FY2018: $15.86

- FY2019: $4.12

- FY2020: $1.05

- FY2021: $7.63

- FY2022: $5.99

- FY2023: $1.57

- FY2024: $1.26

- FY2025: $1.52

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.33×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.0%

- FY2017: -35.2%

- FY2018: 38.4%

- FY2019: 3.1%

- FY2020: 1.8%

- FY2021: 29.7%

- FY2022: 0.6%

- FY2023: -8.1%

- FY2024: -5.5%

- FY2025: -4.4%

## Holders

- [Prem Watsa](https://gigainvestors.com/FFH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 33% since Jun 2026 · "GTX Q4 Deep Dive: Margin Compression Overshadows New Industrial Cooling Growth Initiatives" (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales +4.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:51.188Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-24: Garrett Motion GAAP EPS of $0.42, revenue of $913M, raised FY outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4471294-garrett-motion-gaap-eps-of-042-revenue-of-913m-raised-fy-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-26: Why Garrett Motion (GTX) Is Up 33.3% After Dividend Hike and Raised Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-garrett-motion-gtx-33-071408940.html))

- 2026-04-30: Garrett Motion's Q1 Earnings, Net Sales Rise; 2026 Outlook Raised ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/garrett-motion-apos-q1-earnings-131316161.html))

- 2026-05-01: GTX Q1 Earnings Beat on Strong Sales, 2026 Outlook Lifted ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/gtx-q1-earnings-beat-strong-132200477.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1735707/000173570726000009/gtx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $3.1B 

- FY2018: $3.4B 

- FY2019: $3.2B 

- FY2020: $3.0B 

- FY2021: $3.6B 

- FY2022: $3.6B 

- FY2023: $3.9B 

- FY2024: $3.5B 

- FY2025: $3.6B 

- FY2026: $3.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 24.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1735707/000173570726000009/gtx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: 28.4% 

- FY2018: 26.7% 

- FY2019: 25.9% 

- FY2020: 22.3% 

- FY2021: 23.6% 

- FY2022: 23.3% 

- FY2023: 23.4% 

- FY2024: 25.6% 

- FY2025: 24.5% 

- FY2026: 24.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto parts; annual sales are USD 3.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1735707/000173570726000009/gtx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 3584000000; grossProfit 878000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GTX.US: Garrett Motion Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells turbocharging, air and fluid compression, and high-speed electric motor technologies to original equipment manufacturers and independent aftermarket distributors in the mobility and industrial fields. Its solutions include mechanical and electrical products for turbocharging and boosting internal combustion engines, as well as for compressing air and refrigerants for industrial and mobility use. The company operates in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Garrett Motion Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Plymouth, Michigan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23.4% to 25.6% during 2023–25; it earns over 100% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 23.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 25.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1735707/000173570726000009/gtx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,1.000001],[2018,1.000001],[2019,1.000001],[2020,1.000001],[2021,0.9164591260653955],[2022,0.5759607184066623],[2023,0.7252984767393988],[2024,0.7155242333238343],[2025,1.1707881350738494],[2026,1.1980136643892685]]; median 1.000001. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 23% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1735707/000173570726000009/gtx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.23644371043214973],[2022,0.2331390507910075],[2023,0.23365928975810601]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 10 years; bought back USD 211 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 11017350.684017345; upkeep 72982649.31598265; owner earnings 187017350.68401736. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0589108478102235.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 18000000; upkeep 77000000; owner earnings 1180000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.015254237288135594.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 102000000; owner earnings 284000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 80000000; owner earnings 87000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 72000000; owner earnings 515000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 91000000; owner earnings 383000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 83000000; owner earnings 268000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 91000000; owner earnings 281000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1735707/000173570726000009/gtx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 72000000; owner earnings 337000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,83000000],[2020,83000000],[2021,1301000000],[2022,83000000],[2023,42000000],[2024,13000000],[2025,52000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1735707/000173570726000009/gtx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 211000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GTX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.053 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.1% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 7.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.003442271842679756. Price 24.445; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.6704563363661245 → FY2025 1.6550112133639572. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-09: $18.50 per share

- 2018-10: $15.17 per share

- 2018-11: $11.50 per share

- 2018-12: $12.34 per share

- 2019-01: $15.97 per share

- 2019-02: $16.74 per share

- 2019-03: $14.73 per share

- 2019-04: $18.80 per share

- 2019-05: $15.38 per share

- 2019-06: $15.35 per share

- 2019-07: $14.17 per share

- 2019-08: $9.84 per share

- 2019-09: $9.96 per share

- 2019-10: $9.50 per share

- 2019-11: $11.57 per share

- 2019-12: $9.99 per share

- 2020-01: $8.42 per share

- 2020-02: $6.94 per share

- 2020-03: $2.86 per share

- 2020-04: $5.45 per share

- 2020-05: $5.17 per share

- 2020-06: $5.54 per share

- 2020-07: $5.88 per share

- 2020-08: $2.75 per share

- 2020-09: $3.45 per share

- 2020-10: $3.75 per share

- 2020-11: $4.85 per share

- 2020-12: $4.43 per share

- 2021-01: $6.25 per share

- 2021-02: $6.63 per share

- 2021-03: $5.19 per share

- 2021-04: $5.51 per share

- 2021-05: $8.63 per share

- 2021-06: $7.98 per share

- 2021-07: $6.46 per share

- 2021-08: $6.98 per share

- 2021-09: $7.37 per share

- 2021-10: $6.74 per share

- 2021-11: $7.06 per share

- 2021-12: $8.03 per share

- 2022-01: $7.00 per share

- 2022-02: $7.25 per share

- 2022-03: $7.19 per share

- 2022-04: $6.67 per share

- 2022-05: $6.04 per share

- 2022-06: $7.73 per share

- 2022-07: $6.61 per share

- 2022-08: $6.89 per share

- 2022-09: $5.65 per share

- 2022-10: $6.64 per share

- 2022-11: $7.08 per share

- 2022-12: $7.62 per share

- 2023-01: $8.00 per share

- 2023-02: $7.72 per share

- 2023-03: $7.66 per share

- 2023-04: $8.26 per share

- 2023-05: $8.28 per share

- 2023-06: $7.57 per share

- 2023-07: $7.78 per share

- 2023-08: $7.76 per share

- 2023-09: $7.88 per share

- 2023-10: $7.06 per share

- 2023-11: $7.40 per share

- 2023-12: $9.67 per share

- 2024-01: $8.59 per share

- 2024-02: $9.62 per share

- 2024-03: $9.94 per share

- 2024-04: $9.56 per share

- 2024-05: $9.08 per share

- 2024-06: $8.59 per share

- 2024-07: $8.76 per share

- 2024-08: $8.35 per share

- 2024-09: $8.18 per share

- 2024-10: $7.43 per share

- 2024-11: $8.48 per share

- 2024-12: $9.03 per share

- 2025-01: $9.58 per share

- 2025-02: $9.66 per share

- 2025-03: $8.37 per share

- 2025-04: $9.22 per share

- 2025-05: $10.60 per share

- 2025-06: $10.51 per share

- 2025-07: $13.04 per share

- 2025-08: $12.99 per share

- 2025-09: $13.62 per share

- 2025-10: $16.94 per share

- 2025-11: $16.53 per share

- 2025-12: $17.43 per share

- 2026-01: $18.04 per share

- 2026-02: $20.36 per share

- 2026-03: $18.17 per share

- 2026-04: $25.61 per share

- 2026-05: $32.76 per share

- 2026-06: $36.23 per share

- 2026-07: $31.15 per share

- 2026-08: $26.95 per share

- 2026-09: $26.03 per share

- 2026-10: $24.45 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $42.49 per share, central $48.12 per share, high $55.63 per share

- FY2020: low $35.50 per share, central $39.25 per share, high $44.24 per share

- FY2021: low $59.52 per share, central $66.89 per share, high $76.71 per share

- FY2022: low $67.03 per share, central $75.90 per share, high $87.71 per share

- FY2023: low $23.39 per share, central $26.46 per share, high $30.55 per share

- FY2024: low $13.96 per share, central $15.85 per share, high $18.36 per share

- FY2025: low $18.62 per share, central $21.11 per share, high $24.43 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1735707/000173570726000009/gtx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.