# WW Grainger (GWW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GWW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:55.843Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $1,331.17 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $572.79 per share, central $825.62 per share, high $969.29 per share. Buy at or below the central value $825.62 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:55.843Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.15×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 28.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 22.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 21.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 22.4%

- FY2017: 22.1%

- FY2018: 27.7%

- FY2019: 28.5%

- FY2020: 23.4%

- FY2021: 28.9%

- FY2022: 37.4%

- FY2023: 40.4%

- FY2024: 39.4%

- FY2025: 33.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.92×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $8.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 41.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 0.89×

- FY2025: 0.81×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 22.4% vs 39.4%

- Per-share earnings: 10.10 to 36.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Market cap gain: $34B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $7.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 17.4%

- Per-share value change: $26.41

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $10.10

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $36.51

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.09

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $31M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $12B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 22.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 39.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $9.96

- FY2017: $10.10

- FY2018: $13.84

- FY2019: $15.46

- FY2020: $12.94

- FY2021: $19.98

- FY2022: $30.27

- FY2023: $36.51

- FY2024: $38.96

- FY2025: $35.54

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.18×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.17×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.0%

- FY2017: -8.1%

- FY2018: -4.7%

- FY2019: -3.2%

- FY2020: -6.8%

- FY2021: 1.6%

- FY2022: 2.8%

- FY2023: -2.5%

- FY2024: -2.3%

- FY2025: -3.4%

## Holders

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.2% a year for ten years · "Grainger Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates on Margin Gains, Raises Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +4.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:51.302Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: WW Grainger's first-quarter results beat on strong online sales ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ww-graingers-first-quarter-results-131143901.html))

- 2025-08-01: WW Grainger cuts annual profit forecast on tariff troubles ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ww-grainger-cuts-annual-profit-132731511.html))

- 2025-11-09: W.W. Grainger (GWW): Evaluating Valuation After Earnings Guidance Cut and Third Quarter Profit Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/w-w-grainger-gww-evaluating-190913996.html))

- 2026-05-07: Grainger Beats Q1 Earnings Estimates on Strong Sales, Raises 2026 View ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/grainger-beats-q1-earnings-estimates-150500269.html))

- 2026-06-18: W.W. Grainger (GWW) Is Turning Digital Expansion Into Strong First Quarter Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/w-w-grainger-gww-turning-140736162.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277135/000027713526000011/gww-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $10B 

- FY2017: $10B 

- FY2018: $11B 

- FY2019: $11B 

- FY2020: $12B 

- FY2021: $13B 

- FY2022: $15B 

- FY2023: $16B 

- FY2024: $17B 

- FY2025: $18B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 39.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277135/000027713526000011/gww-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 40.6% 

- FY2017: 39.3% 

- FY2018: 38.7% 

- FY2019: 38.3% 

- FY2020: 35.9% 

- FY2021: 36.2% 

- FY2022: 38.4% 

- FY2023: 39.4% 

- FY2024: 39.0% 

- FY2025: 39.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in industrial distribution; annual sales are USD 17.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277135/000027713526000011/gww-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 17942000000; grossProfit 7009000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GWW.US: W.W. Grainger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes maintenance, repair, and operating products and services primarily in North America, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through two segments, High-Touch Solutions North America and Endless Assortment. It provides safety, security, material handling and storage equipment, pumps and plumbing equipment, cleaning and maintenance, and metalworking and hand tools. The company also offers technical support and inventory management services. It serves smaller businesses to large corporations, government entities, and other institutions, as well as commercial, healthcare, and manufacturing industries through sales and service representatives, and electronic and ecommerce channels. W.W. Grainger, Inc. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 39% to 39.4% during 2023–25; it earns 28.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277135/000027713526000011/gww-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.22432451220636276],[2017,0.2207413529488169],[2018,0.2773270121713988],[2019,0.28474090365134597],[2020,0.23425672523807956],[2021,0.2893319465745295],[2022,0.37421050459625577],[2023,0.40365474467645235],[2024,0.394135155850792],[2025,0.33627688824195373]]; median 0.2870364251129377. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 7.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 41.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 22034217.761538804; upkeep 262214782.2384612; owner earnings 592570217.7615387. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03718414645402544.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 237283000; owner earnings 612447000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 239000000; owner earnings 800000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 221000000; owner earnings 857000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 15000000; upkeep 182000000; owner earnings 695000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02158273381294964.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 68000000; upkeep 187000000; owner earnings 1043000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06519654841802493.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 51000000; upkeep 205000000; owner earnings 1547000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03296703296703297.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 161041974.888057; upkeep 283958025.111943; owner earnings 1765041974.888057. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09123974227200497.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 90546501.05055928; upkeep 450453498.9494407; owner earnings 1695546501.0505593. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05340254660928305.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277135/000027713526000011/gww-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 103053218.39431214; upkeep 580946781.6056879; owner earnings 1379053218.3943121. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07472751378971525.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Incremental return on capital 0.41389895958388917, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,303000000],[2017,304000000],[2018,316000000],[2019,328000000],[2020,338000000],[2021,357000000],[2022,370000000],[2023,392000000],[2024,421000000],[2025,467000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277135/000027713526000011/gww-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 1045000000 USD.

### What could break it

"Volatility in commodity prices may adversely affect gross margins." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277135/000027713526000011/gww-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); Volatility in commodity prices may adversely affect gross margins.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.23835643239460186. Price 1331.17; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 9.491565663588457 → FY2025 28.730275383214835. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $208.12 per share

- 2016-11: $230.57 per share

- 2016-12: $232.25 per share

- 2017-01: $252.57 per share

- 2017-02: $247.96 per share

- 2017-03: $232.76 per share

- 2017-04: $192.70 per share

- 2017-05: $172.28 per share

- 2017-06: $180.53 per share

- 2017-07: $166.74 per share

- 2017-08: $162.57 per share

- 2017-09: $179.75 per share

- 2017-10: $197.70 per share

- 2017-11: $221.31 per share

- 2017-12: $236.25 per share

- 2018-01: $269.66 per share

- 2018-02: $261.55 per share

- 2018-03: $282.27 per share

- 2018-04: $281.35 per share

- 2018-05: $308.99 per share

- 2018-06: $308.40 per share

- 2018-07: $346.56 per share

- 2018-08: $354.07 per share

- 2018-09: $357.41 per share

- 2018-10: $283.97 per share

- 2018-11: $314.04 per share

- 2018-12: $282.36 per share

- 2019-01: $295.39 per share

- 2019-02: $304.77 per share

- 2019-03: $300.93 per share

- 2019-04: $282.00 per share

- 2019-05: $261.69 per share

- 2019-06: $268.23 per share

- 2019-07: $291.03 per share

- 2019-08: $273.65 per share

- 2019-09: $297.15 per share

- 2019-10: $308.84 per share

- 2019-11: $316.95 per share

- 2019-12: $338.52 per share

- 2020-01: $302.67 per share

- 2020-02: $277.54 per share

- 2020-03: $248.50 per share

- 2020-04: $275.58 per share

- 2020-05: $309.62 per share

- 2020-06: $314.16 per share

- 2020-07: $341.53 per share

- 2020-08: $365.43 per share

- 2020-09: $356.77 per share

- 2020-10: $350.02 per share

- 2020-11: $418.30 per share

- 2020-12: $408.34 per share

- 2021-01: $364.39 per share

- 2021-02: $372.71 per share

- 2021-03: $400.93 per share

- 2021-04: $433.54 per share

- 2021-05: $462.16 per share

- 2021-06: $438.00 per share

- 2021-07: $444.58 per share

- 2021-08: $433.70 per share

- 2021-09: $393.06 per share

- 2021-10: $463.11 per share

- 2021-11: $481.41 per share

- 2021-12: $518.24 per share

- 2022-01: $495.11 per share

- 2022-02: $477.06 per share

- 2022-03: $515.79 per share

- 2022-04: $500.03 per share

- 2022-05: $487.07 per share

- 2022-06: $454.43 per share

- 2022-07: $543.53 per share

- 2022-08: $554.94 per share

- 2022-09: $489.19 per share

- 2022-10: $584.35 per share

- 2022-11: $603.06 per share

- 2022-12: $556.25 per share

- 2023-01: $589.48 per share

- 2023-02: $668.43 per share

- 2023-03: $688.81 per share

- 2023-04: $695.57 per share

- 2023-05: $649.02 per share

- 2023-06: $788.59 per share

- 2023-07: $738.49 per share

- 2023-08: $714.14 per share

- 2023-09: $691.84 per share

- 2023-10: $729.83 per share

- 2023-11: $786.19 per share

- 2023-12: $828.69 per share

- 2024-01: $895.64 per share

- 2024-02: $973.46 per share

- 2024-03: $1,017.30 per share

- 2024-04: $921.35 per share

- 2024-05: $921.46 per share

- 2024-06: $902.24 per share

- 2024-07: $976.81 per share

- 2024-08: $984.92 per share

- 2024-09: $1,038.81 per share

- 2024-10: $1,109.23 per share

- 2024-11: $1,205.34 per share

- 2024-12: $1,054.05 per share

- 2025-01: $1,062.67 per share

- 2025-02: $1,021.21 per share

- 2025-03: $987.83 per share

- 2025-04: $1,024.31 per share

- 2025-05: $1,087.56 per share

- 2025-06: $1,040.24 per share

- 2025-07: $1,039.54 per share

- 2025-08: $1,013.50 per share

- 2025-09: $952.96 per share

- 2025-10: $979.00 per share

- 2025-11: $948.63 per share

- 2025-12: $1,009.05 per share

- 2026-01: $1,079.94 per share

- 2026-02: $1,144.73 per share

- 2026-03: $1,090.81 per share

- 2026-04: $1,161.35 per share

- 2026-05: $1,234.24 per share

- 2026-06: $1,360.40 per share

- 2026-07: $1,382.22 per share

- 2026-08: $1,309.49 per share

- 2026-09: $1,245.76 per share

- 2026-10: $1,325.10 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $155.83 per share, central $208.87 per share, high $244.51 per share

- FY2017: low $152.21 per share, central $203.34 per share, high $237.86 per share

- FY2018: low $174.52 per share, central $236.26 per share, high $276.03 per share

- FY2019: low $186.00 per share, central $261.07 per share, high $306.03 per share

- FY2020: low $160.16 per share, central $198.01 per share, high $230.07 per share

- FY2021: low $236.21 per share, central $315.02 per share, high $368.97 per share

- FY2022: low $323.25 per share, central $471.37 per share, high $553.98 per share

- FY2023: low $389.12 per share, central $564.61 per share, high $662.49 per share

- FY2024: low $516.59 per share, central $747.11 per share, high $875.67 per share

- FY2025: low $535.64 per share, central $771.84 per share, high $906.06 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277135/000027713526000011/gww-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.