# GXO Logistics (GXO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/GXO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:55.992Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $46.55 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $31.87 per share, central $35.80 per share, high $41.03 per share. Buy at or below the central value $35.80 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:55.992Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.2% at the stated quote. About 8.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.40×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: 0.00×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 11.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 11.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 4.1%

- FY2020: 0.5%

- FY2021: 5.4%

- FY2022: 5.0%

- FY2023: 7.7%

- FY2024: 4.9%

- FY2025: 4.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.48×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $745M

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.56×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.38×

- FY2024: 1.42×

- FY2025: 5.16×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 0.52 to 1.12 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Per-share value growth: 16.4%

- Per-share value change: $0.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.12

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: $0.61

- FY2019: $0.52

- FY2020: -$0.27

- FY2021: $1.32

- FY2022: $1.67

- FY2023: $1.92

- FY2024: $1.12

- FY2025: $0.28

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -3.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 13.56×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.57×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: -5.6%

- FY2021: -4.2%

- FY2022: -3.7%

- FY2023: -3.5%

- FY2024: -3.7%

- FY2025: -3.3%

## Holders

- [Glenn Welling](https://gigainvestors.com/ENG): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 52% since Nov 2021 · "GXO Logistics (GXO) Tightened Guidance Puts Its Valuation Back In Focus" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +12.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:51.380Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-20: GXO Logistics Shares Rise After Lifting 2025 Outlook, UK Clearance for Wincanton Deal ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gxo-logistics-shares-rise-lifting-155230792.html))

- 2025-08-05: GXO Logistics Posts Higher Second-Quarter Revenue on New Contracts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8af514e0-7471-321f-bbfd-eb2f5310555d/gxo-logistics-posts-higher.html))

- 2026-02-20: GXO sees demand tailwinds across North America as automation drive intensifies ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gxo-sees-demand-tailwinds-across-120000448.html))

- 2026-08-12: GXO Logistics (GXO) Tightened Guidance Puts Its Valuation Back In Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/gxo-logistics-gxo-tightened-guidance-170847897.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +12.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852244/000185224426000007/gxo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2018: $6.1B 

- FY2019: $6.1B 

- FY2020: $6.2B 

- FY2021: $7.9B 

- FY2022: $9.0B 

- FY2023: $9.8B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $13B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 11.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852244/000185224426000007/gxo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2018: 11.3% 

- FY2019: 11.2% 

- FY2020: 11.3% 

- FY2021: 12.2% 

- FY2022: 13.6% 

- FY2023: 14.1% 

- FY2024: 12.3% 

- FY2025: 11.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are USD 13.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852244/000185224426000007/gxo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 13178000000; grossProfit 1531000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GXO.US: GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. It provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, reverse logistics, and other supply chain services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated in 1,043 facilities. The company serves a range of customers in the e-commerce, omnichannel retail, technology and consumer electronics, food and beverage, industrial and manufacturing, consumer packaged goods, and other industries. GXO Logistics, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 11.6% to 14.1% during 2023–25; it earns 4.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 14.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852244/000185224426000007/gxo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 11.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 8-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.04092452372611894],[2020,0.00498422712933754],[2021,0.05381325730577334],[2022,0.050352467270896276],[2023,0.07654544440243229],[2024,0.048862887009852495],[2025,0.04422830611591418]]; median 0.048862887009852495. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 14% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852244/000185224426000007/gxo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.12191435768261964],[2022,0.13577226731902592],[2023,0.14133769687052566]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 8 years; bought back USD 200 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 270000000; owner earnings 61000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 222000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 140000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 222000000; cash acquisitions 30000000; owner earnings 70000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.42857142857142855.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 250000000; cash acquisitions 32000000; owner earnings 238000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.13445378151260504.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 13000000; upkeep 329000000; cash acquisitions 876000000; owner earnings 197000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 4.5126903553299496.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 274000000; cash acquisitions 149000000; owner earnings 316000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.47151898734177217.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 359000000; cash acquisitions 863000000; owner earnings 190000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 4.542105263157895.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852244/000185224426000007/gxo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 324000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 165000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,16000000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852244/000185224426000007/gxo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 200000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); GXO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.0330000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.051242952743128886. Price 46.55; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-07: $58.00 per share

- 2021-08: $81.79 per share

- 2021-09: $78.44 per share

- 2021-10: $88.80 per share

- 2021-11: $96.05 per share

- 2021-12: $90.83 per share

- 2022-01: $81.21 per share

- 2022-02: $83.93 per share

- 2022-03: $71.34 per share

- 2022-04: $59.19 per share

- 2022-05: $54.27 per share

- 2022-06: $43.27 per share

- 2022-07: $48.00 per share

- 2022-08: $44.38 per share

- 2022-09: $35.06 per share

- 2022-10: $36.54 per share

- 2022-11: $46.86 per share

- 2022-12: $42.69 per share

- 2023-01: $52.33 per share

- 2023-02: $49.57 per share

- 2023-03: $50.46 per share

- 2023-04: $53.13 per share

- 2023-05: $55.92 per share

- 2023-06: $62.82 per share

- 2023-07: $67.07 per share

- 2023-08: $63.97 per share

- 2023-09: $58.65 per share

- 2023-10: $50.51 per share

- 2023-11: $56.26 per share

- 2023-12: $61.16 per share

- 2024-01: $54.38 per share

- 2024-02: $51.76 per share

- 2024-03: $53.76 per share

- 2024-04: $49.66 per share

- 2024-05: $50.23 per share

- 2024-06: $50.50 per share

- 2024-07: $55.98 per share

- 2024-08: $50.05 per share

- 2024-09: $52.07 per share

- 2024-10: $59.81 per share

- 2024-11: $60.83 per share

- 2024-12: $43.50 per share

- 2025-01: $45.45 per share

- 2025-02: $39.42 per share

- 2025-03: $39.08 per share

- 2025-04: $36.24 per share

- 2025-05: $41.14 per share

- 2025-06: $48.70 per share

- 2025-07: $49.71 per share

- 2025-08: $52.65 per share

- 2025-09: $52.89 per share

- 2025-10: $56.21 per share

- 2025-11: $50.74 per share

- 2025-12: $52.64 per share

- 2026-01: $56.59 per share

- 2026-02: $62.83 per share

- 2026-03: $51.85 per share

- 2026-04: $57.13 per share

- 2026-05: $50.11 per share

- 2026-06: $50.70 per share

- 2026-07: $50.16 per share

- 2026-08: $47.73 per share

- 2026-09: $44.45 per share

- 2026-10: $46.55 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2022: low $20.99 per share, central $23.51 per share, high $26.87 per share

- FY2023: low $22.83 per share, central $25.66 per share, high $29.43 per share

- FY2024: low $23.40 per share, central $26.63 per share, high $30.92 per share

- FY2025: low $30.06 per share, central $33.80 per share, high $38.78 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1852244/000185224426000007/gxo-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.