# Hafnia (HAFN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HAFN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:56.624Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $10.11 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $17.27 per share, central $19.58 per share, high $22.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value $19.58 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:56.624Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 17.3% at the stated quote. About 17.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 2.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.55×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.22×

- FY2021: -0.01×

- FY2022: 0.43×

- FY2023: 0.32×

- FY2024: 0.28×

- FY2025: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 4.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -15.7%

- FY2017: 2.6%

- FY2018: 0.8%

- FY2019: 5.8%

- FY2020: 8.1%

- FY2021: -0.2%

- FY2022: 23.2%

- FY2023: 25.9%

- FY2024: 25.9%

- FY2025: 10.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.14×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 313.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -1.25×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.21×

- FY2025: 1.16×

### management: pass

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 0.8% vs 25.9%

- Per-share earnings: -0.16 to 1.50 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 6.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.7%

- Per-share value change: $1.66

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.16

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.50

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 0.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.70

- FY2017: $0.03

- FY2018: -$0.16

- FY2019: $0.21

- FY2020: $0.41

- FY2021: -$0.15

- FY2022: $1.54

- FY2023: $1.56

- FY2024: $1.50

- FY2025: $0.69

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.31×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.61×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -24.7%

- FY2017: -6.4%

- FY2018: -6.0%

- FY2019: -6.4%

- FY2020: -9.8%

- FY2021: -6.5%

- FY2022: -0.5%

- FY2023: -6.9%

- FY2024: -6.9%

- FY2025: -5.6%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 7.8% a year for ten years · "Hafnia Q2 Net Profit Plunges As Scheduled Drydocking Hurts" (nasdaq.com, Aug 2025) · sales -18.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:51.555Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 7.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-27: Hafnia Q2 Net Profit Plunges As Scheduled Drydocking Hurts ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/hafnia-q2-net-profit-plunges-scheduled-drydocking-hurts))

- 2026-09-05: Hafnia (HAFN) Payouts Surge as Q2 Profit Hits Multi-Year High ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hafnia-hafn-payouts-surge-q2-111110885.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -18.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1815779/000114036126015278/ef20060668.htm; observed 2026-04-17.

- FY2016: $302M 

- FY2017: $346M 

- FY2018: $368M 

- FY2019: $828M 

- FY2020: $874M 

- FY2021: $811M 

- FY2022: $1.9B 

- FY2023: $2.7B 

- FY2024: $2.9B 

- FY2025: $2.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 18%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1815779/000114036126015278/ef20060668.htm; observed 2026-04-17.

- FY2016: 9.1% 

- FY2017: 8.2% 

- FY2018: 11.5% 

- FY2019: 21.9% 

- FY2020: 27.4% 

- FY2021: 23.1% 

- FY2022: 43.6% 

- FY2023: 31.9% 

- FY2024: 29.6% 

- FY2025: 18.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in marine shipping; annual sales are USD 2.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1815779/000114036126015278/ef20060668.htm (filed 2026-04-17); FY2025: revenue 2348932815; grossProfit 423200488; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18% to 31.9% during 2023–25; it earns 6.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 31.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 29.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1815779/000114036126015278/ef20060668.htm (filed 2026-04-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.15690740890013535],[2017,0.02631043633362749],[2018,0.007969286791277987],[2019,0.05800593551071718],[2020,0.08076596225208267],[2021,-0.00163961996935073],[2022,0.231869191146164],[2023,0.2589103747058257],[2024,0.2590107099103327],[2025,0.10178109636020824]]; median 0.06938594888139993. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 6 of 10 years; bought back USD 28.5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2017: growth capex 63740000; upkeep 54184000; owner earnings 2963000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 21.511981100236248.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 17249000; owner earnings 19835000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2019: growth capex 147508000; upkeep 131505000; owner earnings 71734000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.0563191791897846.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 48597000; owner earnings 256623000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 27030000; owner earnings 69156000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2022: growth capex 238157000; upkeep 209219000; owner earnings 751589000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3168713219592091.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 184392000; owner earnings 819910000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 49623000; owner earnings 939523000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1815779/000114036126015278/ef20060668.htm (filed 2026-04-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 150493131; owner earnings 407231842. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,30195039],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,98318000],[2021,0],[2022,243748000],[2023,544136000],[2024,699883000],[2025,204473388]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1815779/000114036126015278/ef20060668.htm (filed 2026-04-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 28468306 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 42.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HAFN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 42.732 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 7.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.12191255339826362. Price 10.11; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2020-06: $1.60 per share

- 2022-06: $3.45 per share

- 2022-07: $3.40 per share

- 2022-08: $3.75 per share

- 2022-10: $4.78 per share

- 2022-11: $5.90 per share

- 2022-12: $5.28 per share

- 2023-01: $5.16 per share

- 2023-02: $6.25 per share

- 2023-03: $5.90 per share

- 2023-04: $5.40 per share

- 2023-05: $4.69 per share

- 2023-06: $4.74 per share

- 2023-07: $5.50 per share

- 2023-08: $5.93 per share

- 2023-09: $6.28 per share

- 2023-10: $6.50 per share

- 2023-11: $6.31 per share

- 2023-12: $6.91 per share

- 2024-01: $7.38 per share

- 2024-02: $7.37 per share

- 2024-03: $7.05 per share

- 2024-04: $7.72 per share

- 2024-05: $8.95 per share

- 2024-06: $8.39 per share

- 2024-07: $7.96 per share

- 2024-08: $8.15 per share

- 2024-09: $7.16 per share

- 2024-10: $5.81 per share

- 2024-11: $5.69 per share

- 2024-12: $5.57 per share

- 2025-01: $5.29 per share

- 2025-02: $4.06 per share

- 2025-03: $4.16 per share

- 2025-04: $4.64 per share

- 2025-05: $5.06 per share

- 2025-06: $4.99 per share

- 2025-07: $5.50 per share

- 2025-08: $6.13 per share

- 2025-09: $5.99 per share

- 2025-10: $6.36 per share

- 2025-11: $5.99 per share

- 2025-12: $5.33 per share

- 2026-01: $6.14 per share

- 2026-02: $7.69 per share

- 2026-03: $7.60 per share

- 2026-04: $8.91 per share

- 2026-05: $7.65 per share

- 2026-06: $6.64 per share

- 2026-07: $7.69 per share

- 2026-08: $8.44 per share

- 2026-09: $9.94 per share

- 2026-10: $10.11 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $1.64 per share, central $1.83 per share, high $2.09 per share

- FY2021: low $2.31 per share, central $2.60 per share, high $2.98 per share

- FY2022: low $4.23 per share, central $4.74 per share, high $5.43 per share

- FY2023: low $17.19 per share, central $19.51 per share, high $22.60 per share

- FY2024: low $19.12 per share, central $21.69 per share, high $25.12 per share

- FY2025: low $15.92 per share, central $18.07 per share, high $20.94 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1815779/000114036126015278/ef20060668.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.