# Warrior Met Coal (HCC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HCC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:58.505Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $89.46 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $29.19 per share, central $32.46 per share, high $36.81 per share. Buy at or below the central value $32.46 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:58.505Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.2% at the stated quote. About 5.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.64×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.36×

- FY2018: 0.37×

- FY2019: 0.30×

- FY2020: -0.03×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.46×

- FY2023: 0.32×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 26.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 27.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 26.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 34.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 17.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -11.2%

- FY2017: 60.0%

- FY2018: 53.0%

- FY2019: 33.8%

- FY2020: -2.3%

- FY2021: 21.4%

- FY2022: 69.4%

- FY2023: 36.1%

- FY2024: 12.8%

- FY2025: 2.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.55×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $868M

- Net income, five-year total: $1.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 29.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.55×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: -0.19×

- FY2025: -1.31×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 53.0% vs 12.8%

- Per-share earnings: -2.12 to 4.79 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Market cap gain: $3.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $6.90

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$2.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.79

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 53.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.12

- FY2017: $8.62

- FY2018: $13.17

- FY2019: $5.86

- FY2020: -$0.70

- FY2021: $2.93

- FY2022: $12.40

- FY2023: $9.20

- FY2024: $4.79

- FY2025: $1.08

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -6.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.50×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.02×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.5%

- FY2017: 2.1%

- FY2018: 9.8%

- FY2019: -17.2%

- FY2020: -10.6%

- FY2021: -13.7%

- FY2022: -9.9%

- FY2023: -9.4%

- FY2024: -4.5%

- FY2025: -6.2%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mohnish Pabrai](https://gigainvestors.com/PI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.3% a year for ten years · "This milestone led to an immediate upward revision in production guidance." (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +28.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:51.976Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-11-10: Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Stock ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surging-earnings-estimates-signal-upside-172003521.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +28.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691303/000119312526048914/hcc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $1.2B 

- FY2018: $1.4B 

- FY2019: $1.3B 

- FY2020: $783M 

- FY2021: $1.1B 

- FY2022: $1.7B 

- FY2023: $1.7B 

- FY2024: $1.5B 

- FY2025: $1.3B 

- FY2026: $1.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 8.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691303/000119312526048914/hcc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: 46.9% 

- FY2018: 47.3% 

- FY2019: 33.1% 

- FY2020: 0.7% 

- FY2021: 31.6% 

- FY2022: 50.9% 

- FY2023: 35.9% 

- FY2024: 97.0% 

- FY2025: 8.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in coking coal; annual sales are USD 1.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691303/000119312526048914/hcc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 1309868000; grossProfit 111234000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HCC.US: Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.5% to 97% during 2023–25; it earns 27.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 35.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 97%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691303/000119312526048914/hcc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 8.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.11224767101073489],[2017,0.5997478628543907],[2018,0.5302803787068673],[2019,0.3379227219608564],[2020,-0.02322323860897634],[2021,0.21397256265278441],[2022,0.694420074215302],[2023,0.3613624436895575],[2024,0.12811227157511],[2025,0.022122707621657165]]; median 0.2759476423068204. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 9.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 17212000; upkeep 75413000; owner earnings 455046000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03782474738817614.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 1483000; upkeep 97209000; owner earnings 696787000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.002128340511519302.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 107278000; owner earnings 291751000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 57893000; owner earnings 234406000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 93463000; upkeep 115279000; owner earnings 641298000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1457403578367623.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 491674000; owner earnings 114311000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,6902000],[2017,796902000],[2018,360635000],[2019,240394000],[2020,10395000],[2021,10455000],[2022,79665000],[2023,61077000],[2024,43823000],[2025,17824000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691303/000119312526048914/hcc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 9384000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HCC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.81 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.20798694132438944. Price 89.46; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -4.781970729485014 → FY2025 -1.420033077961333. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2017-04: $18.08 per share

- 2017-05: $17.09 per share

- 2017-06: $17.13 per share

- 2017-07: $21.86 per share

- 2017-08: $27.29 per share

- 2017-09: $23.57 per share

- 2017-10: $26.02 per share

- 2017-11: $22.22 per share

- 2017-12: $25.15 per share

- 2018-01: $27.97 per share

- 2018-02: $31.21 per share

- 2018-03: $28.01 per share

- 2018-04: $23.25 per share

- 2018-05: $27.17 per share

- 2018-06: $27.57 per share

- 2018-07: $25.87 per share

- 2018-08: $24.05 per share

- 2018-09: $27.04 per share

- 2018-10: $28.00 per share

- 2018-11: $23.70 per share

- 2018-12: $24.11 per share

- 2019-01: $28.73 per share

- 2019-02: $29.28 per share

- 2019-03: $30.40 per share

- 2019-04: $31.00 per share

- 2019-05: $25.81 per share

- 2019-06: $26.12 per share

- 2019-07: $24.74 per share

- 2019-08: $20.90 per share

- 2019-09: $19.52 per share

- 2019-10: $19.48 per share

- 2019-11: $20.53 per share

- 2019-12: $21.13 per share

- 2020-01: $18.86 per share

- 2020-02: $17.72 per share

- 2020-03: $10.62 per share

- 2020-04: $12.55 per share

- 2020-05: $14.08 per share

- 2020-06: $15.39 per share

- 2020-07: $15.92 per share

- 2020-08: $15.47 per share

- 2020-09: $17.08 per share

- 2020-10: $15.00 per share

- 2020-11: $17.42 per share

- 2020-12: $21.32 per share

- 2021-01: $23.02 per share

- 2021-02: $19.17 per share

- 2021-03: $17.13 per share

- 2021-04: $15.85 per share

- 2021-05: $18.30 per share

- 2021-06: $17.20 per share

- 2021-07: $18.67 per share

- 2021-08: $22.39 per share

- 2021-09: $23.27 per share

- 2021-10: $23.97 per share

- 2021-11: $21.49 per share

- 2021-12: $25.71 per share

- 2022-01: $26.20 per share

- 2022-02: $31.50 per share

- 2022-03: $37.11 per share

- 2022-04: $34.07 per share

- 2022-05: $33.62 per share

- 2022-06: $30.61 per share

- 2022-07: $31.93 per share

- 2022-08: $32.55 per share

- 2022-09: $28.44 per share

- 2022-10: $37.14 per share

- 2022-11: $36.82 per share

- 2022-12: $34.64 per share

- 2023-01: $37.88 per share

- 2023-02: $38.27 per share

- 2023-03: $36.71 per share

- 2023-04: $34.57 per share

- 2023-05: $32.78 per share

- 2023-06: $38.95 per share

- 2023-07: $44.25 per share

- 2023-08: $39.56 per share

- 2023-09: $51.08 per share

- 2023-10: $48.73 per share

- 2023-11: $55.97 per share

- 2023-12: $60.97 per share

- 2024-01: $64.17 per share

- 2024-02: $56.97 per share

- 2024-03: $60.70 per share

- 2024-04: $68.35 per share

- 2024-05: $68.43 per share

- 2024-06: $62.77 per share

- 2024-07: $69.11 per share

- 2024-08: $61.31 per share

- 2024-09: $63.90 per share

- 2024-10: $63.13 per share

- 2024-11: $70.32 per share

- 2024-12: $54.24 per share

- 2025-01: $52.77 per share

- 2025-02: $48.14 per share

- 2025-03: $47.72 per share

- 2025-04: $47.82 per share

- 2025-05: $45.45 per share

- 2025-06: $45.83 per share

- 2025-07: $51.38 per share

- 2025-08: $61.14 per share

- 2025-09: $63.64 per share

- 2025-10: $67.84 per share

- 2025-11: $78.29 per share

- 2025-12: $88.17 per share

- 2026-01: $89.30 per share

- 2026-02: $83.24 per share

- 2026-03: $93.15 per share

- 2026-04: $89.85 per share

- 2026-05: $94.54 per share

- 2026-06: $81.16 per share

- 2026-07: $79.41 per share

- 2026-08: $108.24 per share

- 2026-09: $88.07 per share

- 2026-10: $89.46 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2019: low $65.48 per share, central $74.02 per share, high $85.38 per share

- FY2020: low $42.46 per share, central $47.77 per share, high $54.83 per share

- FY2021: low $59.22 per share, central $66.35 per share, high $75.85 per share

- FY2022: low $100.07 per share, central $111.72 per share, high $127.24 per share

- FY2023: low $91.64 per share, central $102.38 per share, high $116.68 per share

- FY2024: low $30.80 per share, central $33.79 per share, high $37.78 per share

- FY2025: low $24.77 per share, central $27.33 per share, high $30.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1691303/000119312526048914/hcc-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.