# The Home Depot (HD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:28:59.359Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $308.24 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $237.51 per share, central $335.92 per share, high $394.37 per share. Buy at or below the central value $335.92 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:28:59.359Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.6% at the stated quote. About 10.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- FY2026: 0.13×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.12×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 41.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 34.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 31.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 42.2%

- FY2019: 50.9%

- FY2020: 40.5%

- FY2021: 43.7%

- FY2022: 50.1%

- FY2023: 43.8%

- FY2024: 40.1%

- FY2025: 34.4%

- FY2026: 29.2%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 29.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $79B

- Net income, five-year total: $78B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 68.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.02×

- FY2026: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 42.2% vs 34.4%

- Per-share earnings: 6.45 to 14.91 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Market cap gain: $208B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $59B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 11.0%

- Per-share value change: $8.46

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $6.45

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $14.91

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.48

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $31B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $129B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 42.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 34.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $6.45

- FY2018: $7.29

- FY2019: $9.73

- FY2020: $10.25

- FY2021: $11.94

- FY2022: $15.53

- FY2023: $16.69

- FY2024: $15.11

- FY2025: $14.91

- FY2026: $14.23

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.11×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.15×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.55×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.2%

- FY2018: -7.6%

- FY2019: -4.6%

- FY2020: -4.8%

- FY2021: -8.5%

- FY2022: -0.2%

- FY2023: 3.3%

- FY2024: -7.9%

- FY2025: -5.2%

- FY2026: -2.1%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Stephen Mandel](https://gigainvestors.com/LPC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 28% since Nov 2024 · "Home Depot flags choppy demand for big remodels as uncertainty weighs" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +3.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:52.154Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-20: Home Depot Q1 Sales Beat Estimates, Stock Dips 2% on Earnings Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-depot-q1-sales-beat-175300814.html))

- 2025-11-18: Home Depot forecasts steeper drop in annual profit, shares fall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/home-depot-forecasts-steeper-drop-181507794.html))

- 2025-12-09: Home Depot cuts guidance at investor day, cites housing headwinds ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/home-depot-cuts-guidance-investor-211000284.html))

- 2026-03-03: Home Depot Weighs New Stores And AI Tool Against Modest Growth Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-depot-weighs-stores-ai-151021212.html))

- 2026-05-19: Home Depot flags choppy demand for big remodels as uncertainty weighs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/home-depot-flags-choppy-demand-183211941.html))

- 2026-09-24: Home Depot (HD) Stock Could Be 7% Overvalued Following Gig Delivery Cost Questions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/home-depot-hd-stock-could-201646568.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354950/000162828026019436/hd-20260201.htm; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2017: $95B 

- FY2018: $101B 

- FY2019: $108B 

- FY2020: $110B 

- FY2021: $132B 

- FY2022: $151B 

- FY2023: $157B 

- FY2024: $153B 

- FY2025: $160B 

- FY2026: $165B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 33.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354950/000162828026019436/hd-20260201.htm; observed 2026-03-18.

- FY2017: 34.2% 

- FY2018: 34.0% 

- FY2019: 34.3% 

- FY2020: 34.1% 

- FY2021: 34.0% 

- FY2022: 33.6% 

- FY2023: 33.5% 

- FY2024: 33.4% 

- FY2025: 33.4% 

- FY2026: 33.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in home improvement retail; annual sales are USD 164.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354950/000162828026019436/hd-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-18); FY2026: revenue 164683000000; grossProfit 54865000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.3% to 33.4% during 2024–26; it earns 41.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 33.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354950/000162828026019436/hd-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-18); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 33.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3745247393039523],[2018,0.42201707058199184],[2019,0.5093650920160243],[2020,0.4051607441024645],[2021,0.43694465244129255],[2022,0.5007923202223509],[2023,0.43843456461305647],[2024,0.4013553595110583],[2025,0.34361609774310753],[2026,0.2920660112860865]]; median 0.4135889073422282. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 34% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354950/000162828026019436/hd-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-18); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.33951252743925514],[2022,0.3362861131141793],[2023,0.3353049179494673]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1621000000; owner earnings 8309000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1897000000; owner earnings 8795000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2019: growth capex 290000000; upkeep 2152000000; owner earnings 11121000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02607679165542667.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2020: growth capex 382000000; upkeep 2296000000; owner earnings 11242000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03397971891122576.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 2463000000; owner earnings 12922000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2566000000; owner earnings 16729000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2023: growth capex 144000000; upkeep 2975000000; owner earnings 17105000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.008418591055247004.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3226000000; owner earnings 15164000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 3485000000; owner earnings 15082000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354950/000162828026019436/hd-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-18); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 3679000000; owner earnings 14598000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Dividend observations: [[2017,3404000000],[2018,4212000000],[2019,4704000000],[2020,5958000000],[2021,6451000000],[2022,6985000000],[2023,7789000000],[2024,8383000000],[2025,8929000000],[2026,9152000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.074 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Strong competition could adversely affect prices and demand for our products and services" (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354950/000162828026019436/hd-20260201.htm (filed 2026-03-18); Strong competition could adversely affect prices and demand for our products and services

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08310568363286996. Price 308.24; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 5.7435697583788 → FY2026 14.671356783919599. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $122.01 per share

- 2016-11: $129.40 per share

- 2016-12: $134.08 per share

- 2017-01: $137.58 per share

- 2017-02: $144.91 per share

- 2017-03: $146.83 per share

- 2017-04: $156.10 per share

- 2017-05: $153.51 per share

- 2017-06: $153.40 per share

- 2017-07: $149.60 per share

- 2017-08: $149.87 per share

- 2017-09: $163.56 per share

- 2017-10: $165.78 per share

- 2017-11: $179.82 per share

- 2017-12: $189.53 per share

- 2018-01: $200.90 per share

- 2018-02: $182.27 per share

- 2018-03: $178.24 per share

- 2018-04: $184.80 per share

- 2018-05: $186.55 per share

- 2018-06: $195.10 per share

- 2018-07: $197.52 per share

- 2018-08: $200.77 per share

- 2018-09: $207.15 per share

- 2018-10: $175.88 per share

- 2018-11: $180.32 per share

- 2018-12: $171.82 per share

- 2019-01: $183.53 per share

- 2019-02: $185.14 per share

- 2019-03: $191.89 per share

- 2019-04: $203.70 per share

- 2019-05: $189.85 per share

- 2019-06: $207.97 per share

- 2019-07: $213.69 per share

- 2019-08: $227.91 per share

- 2019-09: $232.02 per share

- 2019-10: $234.58 per share

- 2019-11: $220.51 per share

- 2019-12: $218.38 per share

- 2020-01: $228.10 per share

- 2020-02: $217.84 per share

- 2020-03: $186.71 per share

- 2020-04: $219.83 per share

- 2020-05: $248.48 per share

- 2020-06: $250.51 per share

- 2020-07: $265.49 per share

- 2020-08: $285.04 per share

- 2020-09: $277.71 per share

- 2020-10: $266.71 per share

- 2020-11: $277.41 per share

- 2020-12: $265.62 per share

- 2021-01: $270.82 per share

- 2021-02: $258.34 per share

- 2021-03: $305.25 per share

- 2021-04: $323.67 per share

- 2021-05: $318.91 per share

- 2021-06: $318.89 per share

- 2021-07: $328.19 per share

- 2021-08: $326.18 per share

- 2021-09: $328.26 per share

- 2021-10: $371.74 per share

- 2021-11: $400.61 per share

- 2021-12: $415.01 per share

- 2022-01: $366.98 per share

- 2022-02: $315.83 per share

- 2022-03: $299.33 per share

- 2022-04: $300.40 per share

- 2022-05: $302.75 per share

- 2022-06: $274.27 per share

- 2022-07: $300.94 per share

- 2022-08: $288.42 per share

- 2022-09: $275.94 per share

- 2022-10: $296.13 per share

- 2022-11: $323.99 per share

- 2022-12: $315.86 per share

- 2023-01: $324.17 per share

- 2023-02: $296.54 per share

- 2023-03: $295.12 per share

- 2023-04: $300.54 per share

- 2023-05: $283.45 per share

- 2023-06: $310.64 per share

- 2023-07: $333.84 per share

- 2023-08: $330.30 per share

- 2023-09: $302.16 per share

- 2023-10: $284.69 per share

- 2023-11: $313.49 per share

- 2023-12: $346.55 per share

- 2024-01: $352.96 per share

- 2024-02: $380.61 per share

- 2024-03: $383.60 per share

- 2024-04: $334.22 per share

- 2024-05: $334.87 per share

- 2024-06: $344.24 per share

- 2024-07: $368.16 per share

- 2024-08: $368.50 per share

- 2024-09: $405.20 per share

- 2024-10: $393.75 per share

- 2024-11: $429.13 per share

- 2024-12: $388.99 per share

- 2025-01: $411.98 per share

- 2025-02: $396.60 per share

- 2025-03: $366.49 per share

- 2025-04: $360.49 per share

- 2025-05: $368.29 per share

- 2025-06: $366.64 per share

- 2025-07: $367.51 per share

- 2025-08: $406.77 per share

- 2025-09: $405.19 per share

- 2025-10: $379.59 per share

- 2025-11: $356.92 per share

- 2025-12: $344.10 per share

- 2026-01: $374.59 per share

- 2026-02: $380.72 per share

- 2026-03: $328.89 per share

- 2026-04: $328.80 per share

- 2026-05: $317.14 per share

- 2026-06: $352.68 per share

- 2026-07: $331.96 per share

- 2026-08: $327.83 per share

- 2026-09: $284.49 per share

- 2026-10: $293.92 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $67.91 per share, central $77.20 per share, high $89.56 per share

- FY2018: low $104.35 per share, central $151.61 per share, high $177.97 per share

- FY2019: low $119.81 per share, central $174.78 per share, high $205.44 per share

- FY2020: low $128.16 per share, central $186.95 per share, high $219.74 per share

- FY2021: low $178.93 per share, central $258.79 per share, high $303.32 per share

- FY2022: low $211.59 per share, central $308.66 per share, high $362.80 per share

- FY2023: low $229.18 per share, central $334.32 per share, high $392.97 per share

- FY2024: low $226.35 per share, central $329.88 per share, high $387.61 per share

- FY2025: low $231.68 per share, central $337.98 per share, high $397.26 per share

- FY2026: low $231.43 per share, central $327.33 per share, high $384.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:42.093Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354950/000162828026019436/hd-20260201.htm); period 2026-02-01, filed 2026-03-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.