# Heineken (HEIA.AS)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HEIA.AS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:58.141Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 74.78 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 41.60 per share, central EUR 46.85 per share, high EUR 53.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 46.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:58.141Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.2% at the stated quote. About 7.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; NL 10-year bond 3.5% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.14×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.12×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 39.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 15.7%

- FY2017: 15.9%

- FY2018: 15.7%

- FY2019: 13.2%

- FY2020: 7.8%

- FY2021: 13.9%

- FY2022: 13.9%

- FY2023: 13.0%

- FY2024: 10.3%

- FY2025: 11.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 11B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 201.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 0.92×

- FY2023: 0.89×

- FY2024: 1.13×

- FY2025: 0.94×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.7% vs 11.0%

- Per-share earnings: 3.32 to 3.36 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: EUR -1.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 8.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 0.2%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 3.32

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 3.36

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.33

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 19B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 19B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 2.70

- FY2017: EUR 3.39

- FY2018: EUR 3.33

- FY2019: EUR 3.76

- FY2020: EUR -0.35

- FY2021: EUR 5.77

- FY2022: EUR 4.65

- FY2023: EUR 4.07

- FY2024: EUR 1.73

- FY2025: EUR 3.36

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.66×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.5%

- FY2017: -4.7%

- FY2018: -5.9%

- FY2019: -4.6%

- FY2020: -7.7%

- FY2021: -1.7%

- FY2022: -3.4%

- FY2023: -3.8%

- FY2024: -8.2%

- FY2025: -5.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 28% since Apr 2023 · "Heineken to sell less beer in 2025 as demand falters" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales -3.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.511Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-16: Heineken beats first quarter forecasts as tariff risks loom ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/heinekens-q1-sales-slightly-beat-061037386.html))

- 2025-07-28: Heineken sells less beer after fraught pricing talks with retailers ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/heineken-sells-less-beer-fraught-103211273.html))

- 2025-10-22: Heineken Cuts Beer Volume Guidance on Weak Consumer Sentiment ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/876b260c-38f5-3272-b3ad-ead747f925fb/heineken-cuts-beer-volume.html))

- 2026-02-11: Heineken to slash up to 6,000 jobs as beer demand flattens ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/heineken-slash-6-000-jobs-102214215.html))

- 2026-03-25: Heineken Confronts Indian Glass Shortages And Margin Pressures On Growth Story ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/heineken-confronts-indian-glass-shortages-020302563.html))

- 2026-06-23: Heineken’s New CEO Is an Outsider Who Will Battle Slower Beer Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/607bd68f-d804-30b8-9b39-4329b138bb83/heineken%E2%80%99s-new-ceo-is-an.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/724500K5PTPSST86UQ23/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/heia-2025-12-31-en/reports/heia-2025-12-31-en.xhtml; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: EUR 21B 

- FY2017: EUR 22B 

- FY2018: EUR 22B 

- FY2019: EUR 24B 

- FY2020: EUR 20B 

- FY2021: EUR 22B 

- FY2022: EUR 29B 

- FY2023: EUR 30B 

- FY2024: EUR 30B 

- FY2025: EUR 29B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 35.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/724500K5PTPSST86UQ23/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/heia-2025-12-31-en/reports/heia-2025-12-31-en.xhtml; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: 39.4% 

- FY2017: 40.2% 

- FY2018: 39.7% 

- FY2019: 41.0% 

- FY2020: 36.3% 

- FY2021: 38.7% 

- FY2022: 39.6% 

- FY2023: 35.3% 

- FY2024: 35.2% 

- FY2025: 35.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages brewers; annual sales are EUR 28.8 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/724500K5PTPSST86UQ23/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/heia-2025-12-31-en/reports/heia-2025-12-31-en.xhtml (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 28753000000; grossProfit 10288000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HEIA.AS: Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks. It sells its products under the Heineken, Heineken 0.0, Heineken Silver, Amstel, Moretti, Tiger, Desperados, Edelweiss, Lagunitas, Orchard Thieves, Windhoek, Dos Equis, Red Stripe, Kingfisher, Bintang, Gosser, Affligem, Mort Subite, Strongbow, Stassen, Bulmers, Old Mout, Savanna, Turbo King, Tecate, Lagunitas Hoppy Refresher, Bia Viet, Tiger Crystal, Birra Moretti, Harar, Cruzcampo, Bernini, Legend Stout, Beavertown, Stëlz, Texels, Ladrón, Bandida, Stibitzer, El Aguila, and Murphy's brands. In addition, the company engages in rental of pubs and bars; wholesale activities; and pub management and technical services. The company offers its products to retailers, wholesalers and distributors, bars, restaurants, clubs, cafes, and hotels. Heineken N.V. was incorporated in 1864 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken N.V. is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.2% to 35.8% during 2023–25; it earns 13.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 35.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.2%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/724500K5PTPSST86UQ23/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/heia-2025-12-31-en/reports/heia-2025-12-31-en.xhtml (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.15661841154704534],[2017,0.15887586947550192],[2018,0.1573894774543517],[2019,0.13161418838614639],[2020,0.07760792430514489],[2021,0.1386680272413989],[2022,0.13922453671187224],[2023,0.12982303723349228],[2024,0.10254564212981654],[2025,0.11018739199006411]]; median 0.13514110781377264. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 701 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 128189301.73486614; upkeep 1628810698.2651339; owner earnings 1442189301.7348661. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08888521193484253.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 174000000; upkeep 1522000000; owner earnings 1935000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08992248062015504.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 349000000; upkeep 1539000000; owner earnings 1903000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1833946400420389.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 214000000; upkeep 1887000000; owner earnings 1914400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11178437108232345.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1597000000; owner earnings 3345800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 6000000; upkeep 2005000000; owner earnings 2462956762.0927935. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0024360963587934663.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 475000000; upkeep 2202000000; owner earnings 2060837317.7842565. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23048883863899755.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2184000000; owner earnings 1106209819.121447. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/724500K5PTPSST86UQ23/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/heia-2025-12-31-en/reports/heia-2025-12-31-en.xhtml (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2402000000; owner earnings 1763153882.1328344. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,1031000000],[2017,1011000000],[2018,1090000000],[2019,951000000],[2020,583000000],[2021,796000000],[2022,1099000000],[2023,1335000000],[2024,1199000000],[2025,1276000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/724500K5PTPSST86UQ23/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/heia-2025-12-31-en/reports/heia-2025-12-31-en.xhtml (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 701000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 51% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HEIA.AS SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 51.019000000000005 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.1% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08946794379298761. Price 74.78; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.3181863621137477 → FY2025 3.145358881478904. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 75.05 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 70.72 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 71.26 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 69.23 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 77.90 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 79.80 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 81.85 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 87.67 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 85.13 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 88.17 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 88.13 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 83.65 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 83.66 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 85.59 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 86.93 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 90.56 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 85.54 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 87.30 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 87.30 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 85.64 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 86.02 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 86.54 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 85.14 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 80.76 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 79.60 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 80.82 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 77.20 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 78.38 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 88.60 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 94.08 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 96.24 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 94.02 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 98.14 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 97.12 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 96.76 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 99.16 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 91.46 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 94.04 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 94.92 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 98.32 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 90.22 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 76.16 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 77.62 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 82.48 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 82.06 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 82.24 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 77.56 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 75.88 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 76.20 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 88.52 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 91.22 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 85.94 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 81.70 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 87.62 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 96.44 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 97.62 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 102.20 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 98.20 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 92.70 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 90.20 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 95.82 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 87.94 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 98.86 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 95.02 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 90.38 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 86.58 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 93.40 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 93.82 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 87.00 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 96.10 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 89.74 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 89.86 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 84.60 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 88.28 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 87.88 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 91.54 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 96.50 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 99.06 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 104.05 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 94.48 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 94.18 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 89.14 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 89.82 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 83.46 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 84.74 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 83.90 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 91.94 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 93.30 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 85.42 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 89.34 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 91.30 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 91.88 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 90.30 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 82.02 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 81.46 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 79.64 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 75.50 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 70.06 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 68.70 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 67.10 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 81.20 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 75.38 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 78.70 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 78.42 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 74.02 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 69.06 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 69.00 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 66.42 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 67.04 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 70.18 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 69.74 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 69.34 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 78.56 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 66.30 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 66.14 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 67.06 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 73.60 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 78.54 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 72.70 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 69.82 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 72.56 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 34.03 per share, central EUR 38.30 per share, high EUR 43.75 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 35.41 per share, central EUR 41.69 per share, high EUR 47.97 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 42.21 per share, central EUR 49.29 per share, high EUR 56.67 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 41.50 per share, central EUR 47.71 per share, high EUR 55.09 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 36.18 per share, central EUR 40.31 per share, high EUR 45.80 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 40.41 per share, central EUR 45.31 per share, high EUR 51.84 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 49.45 per share, central EUR 55.80 per share, high EUR 64.26 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 51.33 per share, central EUR 59.79 per share, high EUR 69.07 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 41.76 per share, central EUR 47.16 per share, high EUR 54.35 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 44.66 per share, central EUR 49.90 per share, high EUR 56.89 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/724500K5PTPSST86UQ23/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/heia-2025-12-31-en/reports/heia-2025-12-31-en.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.