# Heineken NV (HEINY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HEINY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $41.81 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $29.93 per share, central $33.53 per share, high $38.34 per share. Buy at or below the central value $33.53 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.4% at the stated quote. About 8.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.26×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.13×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.12×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 37.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 55.1%

- FY2017: 73.1%

- FY2018: 52.1%

- FY2019: 43.7%

- FY2020: 6.4%

- FY2021: 11.3%

- FY2022: 12.9%

- FY2023: 10.3%

- FY2024: 11.1%

- FY2025: 11.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 12B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -9.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -1.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.19×

- FY2022: 1.04×

- FY2023: 1.08×

- FY2024: 1.07×

- FY2025: 1.08×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 55.1% vs 11.1%

- Per-share earnings: 3.39 to 3.39 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: EUR -6.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 7.0B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 0.0%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.00

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 3.39

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 3.39

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 1.5%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 6.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 19B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 55.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: EUR 3.39

- FY2018: EUR 3.34

- FY2019: EUR 3.76

- FY2020: EUR -0.35

- FY2021: EUR 5.77

- FY2022: EUR 4.66

- FY2023: EUR 4.07

- FY2024: EUR 1.73

- FY2025: EUR 3.39

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.66×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.97×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.5%

- FY2017: -4.7%

- FY2018: -5.9%

- FY2019: -4.7%

- FY2020: -11.6%

- FY2021: -1.8%

- FY2022: -3.5%

- FY2023: -3.9%

- FY2024: -8.4%

- FY2025: -5.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 27% since Apr 2023 · "Heineken warns of impact of Iran war after first-quarter beat" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales -3.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:52.460Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-16: Heineken beats first quarter forecasts as tariff risks loom ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/heinekens-q1-sales-slightly-beat-061037386.html))

- 2025-07-28: Heineken sells less beer after fraught pricing talks with retailers ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/heineken-sells-less-beer-fraught-103211273.html))

- 2025-11-12: Heineken cuts strength of Foster’s lager as duty rises and sales slump ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/heineken-cuts-strength-foster-lager-155811903.html))

- 2026-02-11: Heineken rises 6% on plans to cut 6,000 jobs as beer demand falls ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heineken-rises-6-plans-cut-163735331.html))

- 2026-03-25: Heineken Confronts Indian Glass Shortages And Margin Pressures On Growth Story ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/heineken-confronts-indian-glass-shortages-020302563.html))

- 2026-06-23: Heineken’s New CEO Is an Outsider Who Will Battle Slower Beer Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/607bd68f-d804-30b8-9b39-4329b138bb83/heineken%E2%80%99s-new-ceo-is-an.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3.6%; source https://www.theheinekencompany.com/sites/heineken-corp/files/2026-02/2025_Heineken_NV_Annual_Report_Interactive_100226_FINAL.pdf; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 21B 

- FY2017: EUR 22B 

- FY2018: EUR 22B 

- FY2019: EUR 24B 

- FY2020: EUR 20B 

- FY2021: EUR 22B 

- FY2022: EUR 29B 

- FY2023: EUR 30B 

- FY2024: EUR 30B 

- FY2025: EUR 29B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 35.8%; source https://www.theheinekencompany.com/sites/heineken-corp/files/2026-02/2025_Heineken_NV_Annual_Report_Interactive_100226_FINAL.pdf; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 37.5% 

- FY2017: 38.1% 

- FY2018: 37.8% 

- FY2019: 39.1% 

- FY2020: 36.9% 

- FY2021: 38.3% 

- FY2022: 35.2% 

- FY2023: 33.9% 

- FY2024: 35.2% 

- FY2025: 35.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages brewers; annual sales are EUR 28.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.theheinekencompany.com/sites/heineken-corp/files/2026-02/2025_Heineken_NV_Annual_Report_Interactive_100226_FINAL.pdf#reviewed-original-annual-table (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2025: revenue 28753000000; grossProfit 10288000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HEINY.US: Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks. It sells its products under the Heineken, Heineken 0.0, Heineken Silver, Amstel, Moretti, Tiger, Desperados, Edelweiss, Lagunitas, Orchard Thieves, Windhoek, Dos Equis, Red Stripe, Kingfisher, Bintang, Gosser, Affligem, Mort Subite, Strongbow, Stassen, Bulmers, Old Mout, Savanna, Turbo King, Tecate, Lagunitas Hoppy Refresher, Bia Viet, Tiger Crystal, Birra Moretti, Harar, Cruzcampo, Bernini, Legend Stout, Beavertown, Stëlz, Texels, Ladrón, Bandida, Stibitzer, El Aguila, and Murphy's brands. In addition, the company engages in rental of pubs and bars; wholesale activities; and pub management and technical services. The company offers its products to retailers, wholesalers and distributors, bars, restaurants, clubs, cafes, and hotels. Heineken N.V. was incorporated in 1864 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken N.V. is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.9% to 35.8% during 2023–25; it earns 12.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 33.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.2%.

- Source: https://www.theheinekencompany.com/sites/heineken-corp/files/2026-02/2025_Heineken_NV_Annual_Report_Interactive_100226_FINAL.pdf (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5511090849364914],[2017,0.7314404919335704],[2018,0.5214998363828938],[2019,0.4374985154907756],[2020,0.06361664633319777],[2021,0.11270782524635639],[2022,0.12946574962347793],[2023,0.1033248870307023],[2024,0.11107782258064516],[2025,0.11185959544450111]]; median 0.12108678743491716. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 701 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1866000000; owner earnings 1491000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1696000000; owner earnings 2186000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1888000000; owner earnings 2500000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1915000000; owner earnings 2210000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1501000000; owner earnings 1169000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1324000000; owner earnings 3959000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1791000000; owner earnings 2777000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2677000000; owner earnings 2494960433.152853. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2465000000; owner earnings 1048759689.9224806. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.theheinekencompany.com/sites/heineken-corp/files/2026-02/2025_Heineken_NV_Annual_Report_Interactive_100226_FINAL.pdf (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2402000000; owner earnings 2030474742.750234. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,1031000000],[2017,1011000000],[2018,1090000000],[2019,1223000000],[2020,811000000],[2021,796000000],[2022,1099000000],[2023,1335000000],[2024,1199000000],[2025,1276000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.theheinekencompany.com/sites/heineken-corp/files/2026-02/2025_Heineken_NV_Annual_Report_Interactive_100226_FINAL.pdf (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 701000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HEINY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:29:00.702Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.043818801193087675. Price 41.81; FX 1.12128; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $41.28 per share

- 2016-11: $37.34 per share

- 2016-12: $37.41 per share

- 2017-01: $37.56 per share

- 2017-02: $41.31 per share

- 2017-03: $42.45 per share

- 2017-04: $44.61 per share

- 2017-05: $49.27 per share

- 2017-06: $48.73 per share

- 2017-07: $52.23 per share

- 2017-08: $52.59 per share

- 2017-09: $49.63 per share

- 2017-10: $48.78 per share

- 2017-11: $50.96 per share

- 2017-12: $52.12 per share

- 2018-01: $56.20 per share

- 2018-02: $51.94 per share

- 2018-03: $53.86 per share

- 2018-04: $52.44 per share

- 2018-05: $50.18 per share

- 2018-06: $50.20 per share

- 2018-07: $50.85 per share

- 2018-08: $49.50 per share

- 2018-09: $46.87 per share

- 2018-10: $45.10 per share

- 2018-11: $45.83 per share

- 2018-12: $43.97 per share

- 2019-01: $45.05 per share

- 2019-02: $50.32 per share

- 2019-03: $52.82 per share

- 2019-04: $54.10 per share

- 2019-05: $52.38 per share

- 2019-06: $55.73 per share

- 2019-07: $54.08 per share

- 2019-08: $53.25 per share

- 2019-09: $54.11 per share

- 2019-10: $51.03 per share

- 2019-11: $51.83 per share

- 2019-12: $53.43 per share

- 2020-01: $54.31 per share

- 2020-02: $49.82 per share

- 2020-03: $41.17 per share

- 2020-04: $42.64 per share

- 2020-05: $46.05 per share

- 2020-06: $46.11 per share

- 2020-07: $48.31 per share

- 2020-08: $46.28 per share

- 2020-09: $44.51 per share

- 2020-10: $44.56 per share

- 2020-11: $52.69 per share

- 2020-12: $55.84 per share

- 2021-01: $51.91 per share

- 2021-02: $49.65 per share

- 2021-03: $51.60 per share

- 2021-04: $58.15 per share

- 2021-05: $59.83 per share

- 2021-06: $60.75 per share

- 2021-07: $58.16 per share

- 2021-08: $54.69 per share

- 2021-09: $52.11 per share

- 2021-10: $55.73 per share

- 2021-11: $49.69 per share

- 2021-12: $56.55 per share

- 2022-01: $53.77 per share

- 2022-02: $50.36 per share

- 2022-03: $47.83 per share

- 2022-04: $48.80 per share

- 2022-05: $50.44 per share

- 2022-06: $45.68 per share

- 2022-07: $49.11 per share

- 2022-08: $44.92 per share

- 2022-09: $43.74 per share

- 2022-10: $41.74 per share

- 2022-11: $45.98 per share

- 2022-12: $47.02 per share

- 2023-01: $49.95 per share

- 2023-02: $51.11 per share

- 2023-03: $53.75 per share

- 2023-04: $57.47 per share

- 2023-05: $50.54 per share

- 2023-06: $51.48 per share

- 2023-07: $49.04 per share

- 2023-08: $48.71 per share

- 2023-09: $44.18 per share

- 2023-10: $45.00 per share

- 2023-11: $45.72 per share

- 2023-12: $50.98 per share

- 2024-01: $50.30 per share

- 2024-02: $46.17 per share

- 2024-03: $48.33 per share

- 2024-04: $48.74 per share

- 2024-05: $49.99 per share

- 2024-06: $48.32 per share

- 2024-07: $44.76 per share

- 2024-08: $45.03 per share

- 2024-09: $44.52 per share

- 2024-10: $40.92 per share

- 2024-11: $37.15 per share

- 2024-12: $35.38 per share

- 2025-01: $34.71 per share

- 2025-02: $42.22 per share

- 2025-03: $40.76 per share

- 2025-04: $44.72 per share

- 2025-05: $44.63 per share

- 2025-06: $43.70 per share

- 2025-07: $39.81 per share

- 2025-08: $40.37 per share

- 2025-09: $39.07 per share

- 2025-10: $38.81 per share

- 2025-11: $40.69 per share

- 2025-12: $40.80 per share

- 2026-01: $41.17 per share

- 2026-02: $46.22 per share

- 2026-03: $38.48 per share

- 2026-04: $38.84 per share

- 2026-05: $38.95 per share

- 2026-06: $41.97 per share

- 2026-07: $45.68 per share

- 2026-08: $42.08 per share

- 2026-09: $39.38 per share

- 2026-10: $39.92 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $38.71 per share, central $44.05 per share, high $51.15 per share

- FY2021: low $52.13 per share, central $58.56 per share, high $67.13 per share

- FY2022: low $63.40 per share, central $71.55 per share, high $82.40 per share

- FY2023: low $64.05 per share, central $72.41 per share, high $83.55 per share

- FY2024: low $56.05 per share, central $63.37 per share, high $73.12 per share

- FY2025: low $59.63 per share, central $66.82 per share, high $76.39 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original annual-report filing](https://www.theheinekencompany.com/sites/heineken-corp/files/2026-02/2025_Heineken_NV_Annual_Report_Interactive_100226_FINAL.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed see filing.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.