# Halfords Group (HFD.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HFD.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 272.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 198.63 per share, central GBX 226.01 per share, high GBX 262.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 226.01 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.8% at the stated quote. About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.56×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: -0.01×

- FY2026: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 15.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 50.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 50.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 40.5%

- FY2018: 36.5%

- FY2019: 34.5%

- FY2020: 14.3%

- FY2021: 31.7%

- FY2022: 16.5%

- FY2023: 9.9%

- FY2024: 8.3%

- FY2025: -3.7%

- FY2026: 11.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.52×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 185M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 122M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.75×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 2.19×

- FY2025: 0.30×

- FY2026: 2.19×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 36.5% vs 8.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.28 to 0.08 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Market cap gain: GBP -413M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 40M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -15.0%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.21

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.28

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.08

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.26

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 529M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 346M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 36.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.28

- FY2018: GBP 0.27

- FY2019: GBP 0.21

- FY2020: GBP 0.09

- FY2021: GBP 0.26

- FY2022: GBP 0.34

- FY2023: GBP 0.12

- FY2024: GBP 0.08

- FY2025: GBP -0.15

- FY2026: GBP 0.15

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.63×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.83×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.0%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: -4.6%

- FY2020: -14.5%

- FY2021: -19.9%

- FY2022: -3.3%

- FY2023: -9.3%

- FY2024: -11.8%

- FY2025: -19.4%

- FY2026: -13.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Dec 2021 · sales +5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.263Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: GBP 1.1B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.1B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.1B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.2B 

- FY2021: GBP 1.3B 

- FY2022: GBP 1.4B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.6B 

- FY2024: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2025: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2026: GBP 1.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 51.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 51.0% 

- FY2018: 50.2% 

- FY2019: 50.9% 

- FY2020: 48.9% 

- FY2021: 49.2% 

- FY2022: 50.7% 

- FY2023: 47.5% 

- FY2024: 48.5% 

- FY2025: 50.7% 

- FY2026: 51.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty retail; annual sales are GBP 1.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2026: revenue 1801700000; grossProfit 927300000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HFD.LSE: Halfords Group plc, through its subsidiaries, provides motoring and cycling products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through two segments, Retail and Autocentres. The company offers batteries; car parts, cleaning solutions, seats, security, and accessories; engine oils and fluids; tyres; tools; baby and child car accessories; bulbs; wiper blades; roof bars and boxes; number plates; camping; trailer and towing, technology, paints and body repairs, and travel accessories; and motoring services. It also provides bikes; electric and kids bikes; bike accessories, parts, maintenance, BMX, racks, locks, bags and baskets, storage solutions, and helmets; cycling clothing; scooters; mudguards; child bike trailer and seat; and cycling technologies. In addition, the company offers vehicle servicing and maintenance and repair from garages and mobile vans; and Avayler, Software-as-a-Service platform; retailing of automotive, leisure and cycling products; mobile, and commercial fleet services; and Retail and Tredz businesses. It sells its products and services through retail stores and online platform. Halfords Group plc was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Redditch, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 48.5% to 51.5% during 2024–26; it earns 15.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 50.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 51.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.40493697478991597],[2018,0.3648110914329802],[2019,0.34504772874713696],[2020,0.14305425387899615],[2021,0.31701079475476346],[2022,0.16476867117653057],[2023,0.09868104295934628],[2024,0.08333241055510647],[2025,-0.0368030564456495],[2026,0.11759066336967305]]; median 0.15391146252776336. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 16000000; owner earnings 72000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 19000000; owner earnings 70600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 18400000; owner earnings 57680000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 33600000; owner earnings 10000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 27500000; owner earnings 60340000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 47300000; owner earnings 58200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 54400000; owner earnings 27820000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 45600000; owner earnings 37060000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 40100000; owner earnings 71939999. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,53500000],[2018,34800000],[2019,35900000],[2020,36600000],[2021,36600000],[2022,16500000],[2023,19500000],[2024,21700000],[2025,17400000],[2026,19100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 6000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HFD.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.057 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:59.392Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03338794112187082. Price 272.5; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.31852986217457885 → FY2026 0.31744910620909983. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 339.20 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 342.40 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 365.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 362.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 339.70 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 354.70 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 373.80 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 363.30 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 342.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 333.20 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 322.90 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 350.50 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 330.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 343.40 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 349.80 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 340.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 354.20 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 326.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 378.80 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 337.60 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 347.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 326.80 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 329.20 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 316.40 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 308.40 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 291.80 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 255.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 231.60 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 236.60 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 232.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 233.60 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 225.20 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 224.60 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 192.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 180.90 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 170.20 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 158.40 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 160.60 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 169.30 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 163.70 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 150.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 69.80 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 108.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 183.20 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 152.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 146.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 165.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 181.40 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 240.50 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 265.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 267.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 272.50 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 289.50 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 380.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 377.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 381.40 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 431.20 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 355.80 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 363.60 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 304.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 266.40 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 306.40 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 345.40 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 327.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 278.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 246.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 226.40 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 224.20 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 142.90 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 172.10 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 130.60 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 131.80 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 176.30 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 194.80 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 209.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 205.20 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 210.80 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 174.80 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 210.20 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 202.60 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 215.60 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 221.20 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 182.90 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 198.30 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 200.60 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 188.10 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 199.30 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 178.50 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 152.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 160.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 151.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 153.60 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 140.40 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 154.60 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 147.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 150.40 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 167.60 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 150.20 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 131.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 141.60 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 121.80 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 128.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 154.60 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 167.80 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 155.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 143.80 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 137.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 143.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 149.60 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 139.80 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 140.80 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 150.20 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 148.40 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 129.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 145.60 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 174.20 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 230.50 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 243.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 273.50 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 267.50 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 272.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 381.59 per share, central GBX 434.20 per share, high GBX 504.24 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 389.35 per share, central GBX 442.73 per share, high GBX 513.80 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 391.53 per share, central GBX 445.51 per share, high GBX 517.38 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 430.53 per share, central GBX 483.54 per share, high GBX 554.11 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 373.42 per share, central GBX 422.09 per share, high GBX 486.88 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 314.04 per share, central GBX 356.22 per share, high GBX 412.37 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 327.59 per share, central GBX 372.15 per share, high GBX 431.47 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 185.45 per share, central GBX 211.02 per share, high GBX 245.06 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 183.40 per share, central GBX 208.69 per share, high GBX 242.35 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 189.83 per share, central GBX 216.00 per share, high GBX 250.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:50:57.651Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.