# Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HHH

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:01.554Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $69.91 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $125.23 per share, central $136.43 per share, high $151.34 per share. Buy at or below the central value $136.43 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:01.554Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 29.4% at the stated quote. About 29.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 2.48×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.32×

- FY2017: 0.20×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: -0.17×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.28×

- FY2023: -0.52×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 16.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -1.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 16.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.4%

- FY2017: 4.0%

- FY2018: 1.4%

- FY2019: 1.5%

- FY2020: -1.0%

- FY2021: 2.4%

- FY2022: 2.6%

- FY2023: -5.6%

- FY2024: 6.0%

- FY2025: 3.0%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 76.26×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $798M

- Net income, five-year total: $10M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 32.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 248.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 35.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 4.62×

- FY2022: 1.83×

- FY2023: 0.78×

- FY2024: 1.66×

- FY2025: 2.45×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.0% vs 3.0%

- Per-share earnings: 3.73 to 2.10 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- Market cap gain: -$46M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $216M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -6.9%

- Per-share value change: -$1.63

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.73

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.10

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.00

- Average buyback yield: 2.8%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $53M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $486M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.51

- FY2017: $3.73

- FY2018: $1.26

- FY2019: $1.63

- FY2020: -$0.47

- FY2021: $0.98

- FY2022: $3.48

- FY2023: -$11.13

- FY2024: $3.95

- FY2025: $2.10

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.18×

- Restructuring years, last five: 1

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.73×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.3%

- FY2017: -2.2%

- FY2018: -2.1%

- FY2019: -1.6%

- FY2020: 0.5%

- FY2021: 3.5%

- FY2022: -1.5%

- FY2023: -3.2%

- FY2024: -2.2%

- FY2025: -3.2%

## Holders

- [Bill Ackman](https://gigainvestors.com/psc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 33% since Mar 2022 · "Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) Is Up 13.7% After Record Pre-Sales and Raised 2025 Guidance" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales -15.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:52.589Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 15.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-04: Howard Hughes Holdings reports $1.2B of sales at Ward Village launch ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4492516-howard-hughes-holdings-reports-12b-of-sales-at-ward-village-launch?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-11-11: Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) Is Up 13.7% After Record Pre-Sales and Raised 2025 Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/howard-hughes-holdings-hhh-13-201307871.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -15.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498828/000162828026012239/hhc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: $1.0B 

- FY2017: $1.1B 

- FY2018: $1.1B 

- FY2019: $1.3B 

- FY2020: $699M 

- FY2021: $1.4B 

- FY2022: $1.5B 

- FY2023: $1.0B 

- FY2024: $1.8B 

- FY2025: $1.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 18.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498828/000162828026012239/hhc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 38.5% 

- FY2017: 35.3% 

- FY2018: 32.4% 

- FY2019: 33.3% 

- FY2020: 30.0% 

- FY2021: 35.8% 

- FY2022: 43.1% 

- FY2023: 42.4% 

- FY2024: 41.8% 

- FY2025: 18.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in real estate development; annual sales are USD 1.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498828/000162828026012239/hhc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 1474892000; grossProfit 276099000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HHH.US: Howard Hughes Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops master planned communities (MPCs) in the United States. It operates through three segments: Operating Assets, MPC, and Strategic Developments. The Operating Assets segment acquires or develops retail, office, and multifamily properties, as well as invests in other real estate properties. The MPC segment plans, develops, and sells land in large scale and long term community development projects to homebuilders and developers. The Strategic Developments segment develops residential condominium and commercial property projects, as well as various other properties. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.7% to 42.4% during 2023–25; it earns 2.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 42.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 41.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498828/000162828026012239/hhc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.044043484571997346],[2017,0.03991479320033517],[2018,0.013715701149832513],[2019,0.01518483089376289],[2020,-0.010491619963908612],[2021,0.023700113150986146],[2022,0.026148812542406984],[2023,-0.05552591659765083],[2024,0.05977500713735695],[2025,0.029785179395209783]]; median 0.024924462846696565. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 10 years; bought back USD 3.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 9662000; owner earnings 142206000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 6968000; owner earnings 307394000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 4485000; owner earnings 224766000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 6951000; owner earnings 222175000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1611000; owner earnings 149454000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1814000; owner earnings 259438000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 2004000; owner earnings 337352000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 50092000; owner earnings 327410000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498828/000162828026012239/hhc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 3499000; owner earnings 303873000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,12000],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498828/000162828026012239/hhc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 3641000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HHH.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.075 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 15.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.22676126014396053. Price 69.91; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.0217197523437895 → FY2025 5.139674915007696. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $109.83 per share

- 2016-11: $113.80 per share

- 2016-12: $114.10 per share

- 2017-01: $106.61 per share

- 2017-02: $116.37 per share

- 2017-03: $117.25 per share

- 2017-04: $123.11 per share

- 2017-05: $128.16 per share

- 2017-06: $122.84 per share

- 2017-07: $125.81 per share

- 2017-08: $117.35 per share

- 2017-09: $117.93 per share

- 2017-10: $127.63 per share

- 2017-11: $124.00 per share

- 2017-12: $131.27 per share

- 2018-01: $125.96 per share

- 2018-02: $128.19 per share

- 2018-03: $139.13 per share

- 2018-04: $135.30 per share

- 2018-05: $126.23 per share

- 2018-06: $132.50 per share

- 2018-07: $135.55 per share

- 2018-08: $130.37 per share

- 2018-09: $124.22 per share

- 2018-10: $111.52 per share

- 2018-11: $110.76 per share

- 2018-12: $97.62 per share

- 2019-01: $111.04 per share

- 2019-02: $111.38 per share

- 2019-03: $110.00 per share

- 2019-04: $111.00 per share

- 2019-05: $102.84 per share

- 2019-06: $123.84 per share

- 2019-07: $135.00 per share

- 2019-08: $126.27 per share

- 2019-09: $129.60 per share

- 2019-10: $111.82 per share

- 2019-11: $110.41 per share

- 2019-12: $126.80 per share

- 2020-01: $121.68 per share

- 2020-02: $107.88 per share

- 2020-03: $50.52 per share

- 2020-04: $54.16 per share

- 2020-05: $50.65 per share

- 2020-06: $51.95 per share

- 2020-07: $53.19 per share

- 2020-08: $59.11 per share

- 2020-09: $57.60 per share

- 2020-10: $62.19 per share

- 2020-11: $72.73 per share

- 2020-12: $78.93 per share

- 2021-01: $86.17 per share

- 2021-02: $94.87 per share

- 2021-03: $95.13 per share

- 2021-04: $107.94 per share

- 2021-05: $105.83 per share

- 2021-06: $97.46 per share

- 2021-07: $92.71 per share

- 2021-08: $90.53 per share

- 2021-09: $87.81 per share

- 2021-10: $87.13 per share

- 2021-11: $81.99 per share

- 2021-12: $101.78 per share

- 2022-01: $96.31 per share

- 2022-02: $95.58 per share

- 2022-03: $103.61 per share

- 2022-04: $100.29 per share

- 2022-05: $84.13 per share

- 2022-06: $68.05 per share

- 2022-07: $70.89 per share

- 2022-08: $63.63 per share

- 2022-09: $55.39 per share

- 2022-10: $61.35 per share

- 2022-11: $74.54 per share

- 2022-12: $76.42 per share

- 2023-01: $85.49 per share

- 2023-02: $83.12 per share

- 2023-03: $80.00 per share

- 2023-04: $77.37 per share

- 2023-05: $74.57 per share

- 2023-06: $78.92 per share

- 2023-07: $84.43 per share

- 2023-08: $78.65 per share

- 2023-09: $74.13 per share

- 2023-10: $66.33 per share

- 2023-11: $73.51 per share

- 2023-12: $85.55 per share

- 2024-01: $80.08 per share

- 2024-02: $76.40 per share

- 2024-03: $72.62 per share

- 2024-04: $65.16 per share

- 2024-05: $66.30 per share

- 2024-06: $64.82 per share

- 2024-07: $74.17 per share

- 2024-08: $75.22 per share

- 2024-09: $77.43 per share

- 2024-10: $76.04 per share

- 2024-11: $86.74 per share

- 2024-12: $76.92 per share

- 2025-01: $76.37 per share

- 2025-02: $79.20 per share

- 2025-03: $74.08 per share

- 2025-04: $66.53 per share

- 2025-05: $68.31 per share

- 2025-06: $67.50 per share

- 2025-07: $68.73 per share

- 2025-08: $76.27 per share

- 2025-09: $82.17 per share

- 2025-10: $79.28 per share

- 2025-11: $89.53 per share

- 2025-12: $79.77 per share

- 2026-01: $81.66 per share

- 2026-02: $72.37 per share

- 2026-03: $63.26 per share

- 2026-04: $62.27 per share

- 2026-05: $63.35 per share

- 2026-06: $71.49 per share

- 2026-07: $63.92 per share

- 2026-08: $64.13 per share

- 2026-09: $73.62 per share

- 2026-10: $69.91 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $48.82 per share, central $53.00 per share, high $58.55 per share

- FY2018: low $54.39 per share, central $73.18 per share, high $84.12 per share

- FY2019: low $62.19 per share, central $69.56 per share, high $79.37 per share

- FY2020: low $47.46 per share, central $51.50 per share, high $56.88 per share

- FY2021: low $71.69 per share, central $79.62 per share, high $90.17 per share

- FY2022: low $76.07 per share, central $85.01 per share, high $96.90 per share

- FY2023: low $53.32 per share, central $58.98 per share, high $66.51 per share

- FY2024: low $82.76 per share, central $92.62 per share, high $105.75 per share

- FY2025: low $75.33 per share, central $82.36 per share, high $91.72 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498828/000162828026012239/hhc-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.