# Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HLT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:04.227Z. Financial observations: FY2010–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $342.98 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $76.75 per share, central $86.87 per share, high $100.34 per share. Buy at or below the central value $86.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:04.227Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.7% at the stated quote. About 4.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.56×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.33×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: -0.10×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.24×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.22×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.23×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 44.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.0%

- FY2017: 44.7%

- FY2018: 45.0%

- FY2019: 39.5%

- FY2020: -18.1%

- FY2021: 29.9%

- FY2022: 64.6%

- FY2023: 79.3%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $5.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -7.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.27×

- FY2022: 1.05×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 44.7% vs 105.4%

- Per-share earnings: 3.31 to 6.12 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.0%

- Market cap gain: $48B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.0%

- Per-share value change: $2.81

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.31

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.12

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.45

- Average buyback yield: 3.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $5.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 44.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.03

- FY2017: $3.31

- FY2018: $2.50

- FY2019: $3.04

- FY2020: -$2.58

- FY2021: $1.46

- FY2022: $4.53

- FY2023: $4.32

- FY2024: $6.14

- FY2025: $6.12

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.46×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.9%

- FY2017: 1.1%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -3.4%

- FY2020: -8.5%

- FY2021: 1.9%

- FY2022: -2.7%

- FY2023: -5.2%

- FY2024: -2.9%

- FY2025: -4.0%

## Holders

- [Mark Massey](https://gigainvestors.com/AP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.8% a year for ten years · "Hilton raises full-year RevPAR forecast after Q1 2026 earnings beat" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +3.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:53.271Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-29: Hilton cuts 2025 revenue growth forecast as economic uncertainty weighs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hilton-cuts-2025-revenue-growth-101435930.html))

- 2025-07-24: HLT Q2 Deep Dive: Mixed U.S. Demand Offsets Global Growth, Development Pipeline Expands ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hlt-q2-deep-dive-mixed-053230009.html))

- 2025-10-23: HLT Q3 Deep Dive: Development Acceleration and Cost Controls Offset RevPAR Weakness ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hlt-q3-deep-dive-development-053129860.html))

- 2026-02-12: HLT Q4 Deep Dive: Strong International Growth, New Brands, and Cautious U.S. Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hlt-q4-deep-dive-strong-053211541.html))

- 2026-04-29: Hilton Beats Q1 Estimates, Raises 2026 Outlook As RevPAR Rises 3.6% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hilton-beats-q1-estimates-raises-170737947.html))

- 2026-07-28: Hilton slides on current-quarter profit outlook miss; Q2 results in line ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hilton-slides-current-quarter-profit-104624928.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000007/hlt-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: $3.4B 

- FY2018: $8.9B 

- FY2019: $9.5B 

- FY2020: $4.3B 

- FY2021: $5.8B 

- FY2022: $8.8B 

- FY2023: $10B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $12B 

- FY2026: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 41.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000007/hlt-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 25.7% 

- FY2017: 57.7% 

- FY2018: 25.3% 

- FY2019: 25.8% 

- FY2020: 13.5% 

- FY2021: 28.6% 

- FY2022: 30.8% 

- FY2023: 28.6% 

- FY2024: 27.4% 

- FY2025: 41.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in lodging; annual sales are USD 12 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000007/hlt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 12039000000; grossProfit 4954000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.4% to 41.1% during 2023–25; it earns 44.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000007/hlt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 41.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09048917401764234],[2017,0.4474308300395257],[2018,0.4500126682631403],[2019,0.3954913881537547],[2020,-0.18094246575342465],[2021,0.29876010233153094],[2022,0.6464944029520817],[2023,0.7932801914051077],[2024,1.054469184913646],[2025,1.1100106030498762]]; median 0.448721749151333. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 453000000; owner earnings 558000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 208000000; owner earnings 1212000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 159000000; owner earnings 930000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 205000000; owner earnings 1022000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 79000000; owner earnings 519000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 102000000; owner earnings 1315000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 100000000; upkeep 147000000; owner earnings 1141000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0876424189307625.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 52000000; upkeep 146000000; owner earnings 1535000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.033876221498371335.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000007/hlt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 8000000; upkeep 177000000; owner earnings 1457000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00549073438572409.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,277000000],[2017,195000000],[2018,181000000],[2019,172000000],[2020,42000000],[2021,123000000],[2022,123000000],[2023,158000000],[2024,150000000],[2025,143000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000007/hlt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 3254000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HLT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.193 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our business is subject to risks related to doing business with third-party property owners" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000007/hlt-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); Our business is subject to risks related to doing business with third-party property owners

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 18.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2594488549200832. Price 342.98; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 5.112121212121212 → FY2025 6.121848739495798. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $46.37 per share

- 2016-11: $51.44 per share

- 2016-12: $55.81 per share

- 2017-01: $57.58 per share

- 2017-02: $57.20 per share

- 2017-03: $58.46 per share

- 2017-04: $58.97 per share

- 2017-05: $66.47 per share

- 2017-06: $61.85 per share

- 2017-07: $62.53 per share

- 2017-08: $64.33 per share

- 2017-09: $69.45 per share

- 2017-10: $72.28 per share

- 2017-11: $77.56 per share

- 2017-12: $79.86 per share

- 2018-01: $85.65 per share

- 2018-02: $80.79 per share

- 2018-03: $78.76 per share

- 2018-04: $78.84 per share

- 2018-05: $80.71 per share

- 2018-06: $79.16 per share

- 2018-07: $78.66 per share

- 2018-08: $77.62 per share

- 2018-09: $80.78 per share

- 2018-10: $71.17 per share

- 2018-11: $75.54 per share

- 2018-12: $71.80 per share

- 2019-01: $74.48 per share

- 2019-02: $83.10 per share

- 2019-03: $83.11 per share

- 2019-04: $86.99 per share

- 2019-05: $89.44 per share

- 2019-06: $97.74 per share

- 2019-07: $96.55 per share

- 2019-08: $92.37 per share

- 2019-09: $93.11 per share

- 2019-10: $96.96 per share

- 2019-11: $105.00 per share

- 2019-12: $110.91 per share

- 2020-01: $107.80 per share

- 2020-02: $97.20 per share

- 2020-03: $68.24 per share

- 2020-04: $75.71 per share

- 2020-05: $79.31 per share

- 2020-06: $73.45 per share

- 2020-07: $75.05 per share

- 2020-08: $90.36 per share

- 2020-09: $85.32 per share

- 2020-10: $87.81 per share

- 2020-11: $103.63 per share

- 2020-12: $111.26 per share

- 2021-01: $101.39 per share

- 2021-02: $123.68 per share

- 2021-03: $120.92 per share

- 2021-04: $128.70 per share

- 2021-05: $125.27 per share

- 2021-06: $120.62 per share

- 2021-07: $131.45 per share

- 2021-08: $124.86 per share

- 2021-09: $132.11 per share

- 2021-10: $143.95 per share

- 2021-11: $135.07 per share

- 2021-12: $155.99 per share

- 2022-01: $145.11 per share

- 2022-02: $148.86 per share

- 2022-03: $151.74 per share

- 2022-04: $155.29 per share

- 2022-05: $140.86 per share

- 2022-06: $111.44 per share

- 2022-07: $128.07 per share

- 2022-08: $127.36 per share

- 2022-09: $120.62 per share

- 2022-10: $135.26 per share

- 2022-11: $142.62 per share

- 2022-12: $126.36 per share

- 2023-01: $145.09 per share

- 2023-02: $144.51 per share

- 2023-03: $140.87 per share

- 2023-04: $144.02 per share

- 2023-05: $136.12 per share

- 2023-06: $145.55 per share

- 2023-07: $155.49 per share

- 2023-08: $148.65 per share

- 2023-09: $150.18 per share

- 2023-10: $151.53 per share

- 2023-11: $167.52 per share

- 2023-12: $182.09 per share

- 2024-01: $190.96 per share

- 2024-02: $204.32 per share

- 2024-03: $213.31 per share

- 2024-04: $197.28 per share

- 2024-05: $200.60 per share

- 2024-06: $218.20 per share

- 2024-07: $214.67 per share

- 2024-08: $219.64 per share

- 2024-09: $230.50 per share

- 2024-10: $234.85 per share

- 2024-11: $253.44 per share

- 2024-12: $247.16 per share

- 2025-01: $256.07 per share

- 2025-02: $264.96 per share

- 2025-03: $227.55 per share

- 2025-04: $225.48 per share

- 2025-05: $248.44 per share

- 2025-06: $266.34 per share

- 2025-07: $268.08 per share

- 2025-08: $276.06 per share

- 2025-09: $259.44 per share

- 2025-10: $256.96 per share

- 2025-11: $285.03 per share

- 2025-12: $287.25 per share

- 2026-01: $298.51 per share

- 2026-02: $311.78 per share

- 2026-03: $304.08 per share

- 2026-04: $324.07 per share

- 2026-05: $327.66 per share

- 2026-06: $330.46 per share

- 2026-07: $320.49 per share

- 2026-08: $316.28 per share

- 2026-09: $318.12 per share

- 2026-10: $329.59 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $21.37 per share, central $23.92 per share, high $27.33 per share

- FY2017: low $11.27 per share, central $12.62 per share, high $14.41 per share

- FY2018: low $34.07 per share, central $38.66 per share, high $44.78 per share

- FY2019: low $39.72 per share, central $45.03 per share, high $52.10 per share

- FY2020: low $29.05 per share, central $31.50 per share, high $34.76 per share

- FY2021: low $28.18 per share, central $31.42 per share, high $35.73 per share

- FY2022: low $39.88 per share, central $44.86 per share, high $51.50 per share

- FY2023: low $48.07 per share, central $54.39 per share, high $62.80 per share

- FY2024: low $58.77 per share, central $66.28 per share, high $76.28 per share

- FY2025: low $69.76 per share, central $78.98 per share, high $91.27 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:46.904Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1585689/000158568926000007/hlt-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.