# Harley-Davidson (HOG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HOG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:05.292Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $27.59 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $66.99 per share, central $73.83 per share, high $82.93 per share. Buy at or below the central value $73.83 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:05.292Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 45.0% at the stated quote. About 45.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.46×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.00×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 5.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.0%

- FY2017: 7.2%

- FY2018: 6.8%

- FY2019: 5.0%

- FY2020: 0.1%

- FY2021: 8.7%

- FY2022: 8.6%

- FY2023: 7.1%

- FY2024: 4.2%

- FY2025: 9.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -8.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 38.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.07×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.95×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.2% vs 7.1%

- Per-share earnings: 3.69 to 3.44 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.7%

- Market cap gain: -$8.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -0.9%

- Per-share value change: -$0.25

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.44

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.77

- Average buyback yield: 6.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $16M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $5.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.83

- FY2017: $3.02

- FY2018: $3.19

- FY2019: $2.68

- FY2020: $0.01

- FY2021: $4.19

- FY2022: $4.96

- FY2023: $4.87

- FY2024: $3.44

- FY2025: $2.79

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.12×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.68×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.9%

- FY2017: -4.8%

- FY2018: -6.3%

- FY2019: -4.2%

- FY2020: -9.8%

- FY2021: -2.9%

- FY2022: 1.7%

- FY2023: -0.4%

- FY2024: -5.1%

- FY2025: -2.9%

## Holders

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 42% since Feb 2023 · "HOG Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Tariff-Pressured Margins" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales -8.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:53.430Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 21.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-08: Harley-Davidson Seeks New CEO, While Grappling With Sales Slump, Tariffs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/efd430f1-6dfa-3dc6-a95b-07dea25fcf05/harley-davidson-seeks-new.html))

- 2025-05-01: Harley-Davidson Sales Slowed by Tariffs, Economic Jitters ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f0295f22-55bd-3c30-8ec5-8b123e610e0d/harley-davidson-sales-slowed.html))

- 2025-07-31: Harley-Davidson (HOG) Surges 13% on $5-Billion Sale of Lending Arm ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/harley-davidson-hog-surges-13-095911999.html))

- 2025-11-04: Harley-Davidson Shares Fall Despite Earnings Beat; Sales Slump Persists ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a7a7269e-92ef-3643-8eec-310fc0d87f28/harley-davidson-shares-fall.html))

- 2026-02-10: Harley-Davidson Stock Plunges. Guidance Was a Disappointment. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9321cdd4-cf3f-34d4-b925-ad459858e99c/harley-davidson-stock.html))

- 2026-03-25: Harley-Davidson Slashing Jobs as Tariffs Erase Profits ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/harley-davidson-slashing-jobs-tariffs-151500928.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -8.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000079395226000011/hog-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2017: $5.6B 

- FY2018: $5.7B 

- FY2019: $5.4B 

- FY2020: $4.1B 

- FY2021: $5.3B 

- FY2022: $5.8B 

- FY2023: $5.8B 

- FY2024: $5.2B 

- FY2025: $4.5B 

- FY2026: $4.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 30.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000079395226000011/hog-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-26.

- FY2016: 35.5% 

- FY2017: 34.2% 

- FY2018: 38.0% 

- FY2019: 35.8% 

- FY2020: 33.8% 

- FY2021: 35.6% 

- FY2022: 37.1% 

- FY2023: 37.4% 

- FY2024: 34.9% 

- FY2025: 30.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in recreational vehicles; annual sales are USD 4.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000079395226000011/hog-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: revenue 4473175000; grossProfit 1352540000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HOG.US: Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for kids, electric bikes, parts and accessories, apparel, and related parts and services. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open-account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, such as installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale insurance and voluntary protection products. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.2% to 37.4% during 2023–25; it earns 7.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 37.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000079395226000011/hog-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08965685371305299],[2017,0.07161997587286548],[2018,0.0681440562479237],[2019,0.050183451993169766],[2020,0.0010286272907119372],[2021,0.08651464486911915],[2022,0.08630149498364094],[2023,0.07056377982583431],[2024,0.041990456752622245],[2025,0.09129634411716388]]; median 0.0710918778493499. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 37% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000079395226000011/hog-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.356065841776749],[2022,0.37075600377402423],[2023,0.3738199647115949]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 353.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2016: growth capex 158735.4947488606; upkeep 256104264.50525114; owner earnings 645614735.4947488. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0002458672115456257.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 206294000; owner earnings 537653000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 213516000; owner earnings 582798000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 181440000; owner earnings 474732000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 131050000; owner earnings 55963000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 120181000; owner earnings 695028000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 151669000; owner earnings 741681000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2023: growth capex 12469350.746428728; upkeep 194934649.25357127; owner earnings 669763350.7464287. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.018617547126954702.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 196563000; owner earnings 419467000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000079395226000011/hog-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 153679000; owner earnings 357430000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,252321000],[2017,251862000],[2018,245810000],[2019,237221000],[2020,68087000],[2021,92426000],[2022,93180000],[2023,96310000],[2024,91224000],[2025,86388000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000079395226000011/hog-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 353270000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HOG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.1820000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 21.7% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.30977552242745. Price 27.59; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.38907435955343 → FY2025 2.9477061118121015. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $57.02 per share

- 2016-11: $60.89 per share

- 2016-12: $58.34 per share

- 2017-01: $57.04 per share

- 2017-02: $56.38 per share

- 2017-03: $60.50 per share

- 2017-04: $56.81 per share

- 2017-05: $53.01 per share

- 2017-06: $54.02 per share

- 2017-07: $48.67 per share

- 2017-08: $47.01 per share

- 2017-09: $48.21 per share

- 2017-10: $47.34 per share

- 2017-11: $50.20 per share

- 2017-12: $50.88 per share

- 2018-01: $48.46 per share

- 2018-02: $45.38 per share

- 2018-03: $42.88 per share

- 2018-04: $41.13 per share

- 2018-05: $41.08 per share

- 2018-06: $42.08 per share

- 2018-07: $42.89 per share

- 2018-08: $42.62 per share

- 2018-09: $45.30 per share

- 2018-10: $38.22 per share

- 2018-11: $42.29 per share

- 2018-12: $34.12 per share

- 2019-01: $36.86 per share

- 2019-02: $37.12 per share

- 2019-03: $35.66 per share

- 2019-04: $37.23 per share

- 2019-05: $32.72 per share

- 2019-06: $35.83 per share

- 2019-07: $35.78 per share

- 2019-08: $31.90 per share

- 2019-09: $35.97 per share

- 2019-10: $38.91 per share

- 2019-11: $36.38 per share

- 2019-12: $37.19 per share

- 2020-01: $33.40 per share

- 2020-02: $30.47 per share

- 2020-03: $18.93 per share

- 2020-04: $21.83 per share

- 2020-05: $21.34 per share

- 2020-06: $23.77 per share

- 2020-07: $26.03 per share

- 2020-08: $27.71 per share

- 2020-09: $24.54 per share

- 2020-10: $32.88 per share

- 2020-11: $40.29 per share

- 2020-12: $36.70 per share

- 2021-01: $40.09 per share

- 2021-02: $35.67 per share

- 2021-03: $40.10 per share

- 2021-04: $48.37 per share

- 2021-05: $48.47 per share

- 2021-06: $45.82 per share

- 2021-07: $39.62 per share

- 2021-08: $39.53 per share

- 2021-09: $36.61 per share

- 2021-10: $36.49 per share

- 2021-11: $36.63 per share

- 2021-12: $37.69 per share

- 2022-01: $34.57 per share

- 2022-02: $41.30 per share

- 2022-03: $39.40 per share

- 2022-04: $36.45 per share

- 2022-05: $35.18 per share

- 2022-06: $31.66 per share

- 2022-07: $37.81 per share

- 2022-08: $38.57 per share

- 2022-09: $34.88 per share

- 2022-10: $43.00 per share

- 2022-11: $47.13 per share

- 2022-12: $41.60 per share

- 2023-01: $46.03 per share

- 2023-02: $47.55 per share

- 2023-03: $37.97 per share

- 2023-04: $37.10 per share

- 2023-05: $31.11 per share

- 2023-06: $35.21 per share

- 2023-07: $38.61 per share

- 2023-08: $33.75 per share

- 2023-09: $33.06 per share

- 2023-10: $26.85 per share

- 2023-11: $29.99 per share

- 2023-12: $36.84 per share

- 2024-01: $32.45 per share

- 2024-02: $36.27 per share

- 2024-03: $43.74 per share

- 2024-04: $34.39 per share

- 2024-05: $35.88 per share

- 2024-06: $33.54 per share

- 2024-07: $37.50 per share

- 2024-08: $37.44 per share

- 2024-09: $38.53 per share

- 2024-10: $31.95 per share

- 2024-11: $33.63 per share

- 2024-12: $30.13 per share

- 2025-01: $27.06 per share

- 2025-02: $25.76 per share

- 2025-03: $25.25 per share

- 2025-04: $22.42 per share

- 2025-05: $24.21 per share

- 2025-06: $23.60 per share

- 2025-07: $24.33 per share

- 2025-08: $29.12 per share

- 2025-09: $27.90 per share

- 2025-10: $26.98 per share

- 2025-11: $24.49 per share

- 2025-12: $20.49 per share

- 2026-01: $19.80 per share

- 2026-02: $18.00 per share

- 2026-03: $20.22 per share

- 2026-04: $23.89 per share

- 2026-05: $24.18 per share

- 2026-06: $24.46 per share

- 2026-07: $24.54 per share

- 2026-08: $27.60 per share

- 2026-09: $24.43 per share

- 2026-10: $27.59 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $45.38 per share, central $51.14 per share, high $58.81 per share

- FY2017: low $44.42 per share, central $50.09 per share, high $57.63 per share

- FY2018: low $47.01 per share, central $52.58 per share, high $60.00 per share

- FY2019: low $42.46 per share, central $47.68 per share, high $54.63 per share

- FY2020: low $48.05 per share, central $51.83 per share, high $56.86 per share

- FY2021: low $47.24 per share, central $52.18 per share, high $58.76 per share

- FY2022: low $53.19 per share, central $61.07 per share, high $69.61 per share

- FY2023: low $60.22 per share, central $67.17 per share, high $76.43 per share

- FY2024: low $60.41 per share, central $67.19 per share, high $76.22 per share

- FY2025: low $71.03 per share, central $77.41 per share, high $85.90 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000079395226000011/hog-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.