# Holmen (HOLM-B.ST)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HOLM-B.ST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:35.431Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: SEK. Reporting currency: SEK.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: SEK 321.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low SEK 227.48 per share, central SEK 258.85 per share, high SEK 300.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value SEK 258.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:35.431Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.6% at the stated quote. About 8.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; SE 10-year bond 3.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.71×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.12×

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.66×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2022: 0.31×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 47.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 47.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 49.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 1.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.1%

- FY2017: 6.9%

- FY2018: 8.6%

- FY2019: 19.8%

- FY2020: 4.3%

- FY2021: 6.0%

- FY2022: 10.3%

- FY2023: 6.4%

- FY2024: 4.8%

- FY2025: 3.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.89×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: SEK 16B

- Net income, five-year total: SEK 18B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 48.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.89×

- FY2024: 0.73×

- FY2025: 0.75×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.9% vs 4.8%

- Per-share earnings: 8.47 to 18.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Market cap gain: SEK 27B

- Cumulative retained earnings: SEK 15B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 10.4%

- Per-share value change: SEK 10.17

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: SEK 8.47

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: SEK 18.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.30

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: SEK 575M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: SEK 34B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: SEK 8.47

- FY2017: SEK 9.88

- FY2018: SEK 13.37

- FY2019: SEK 53.37

- FY2020: SEK 12.26

- FY2021: SEK 18.50

- FY2022: SEK 36.26

- FY2023: SEK 23.22

- FY2024: SEK 17.95

- FY2025: SEK 18.64

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.34×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.5%

- FY2017: -2.4%

- FY2018: -0.0%

- FY2019: 9.9%

- FY2020: -0.8%

- FY2021: -0.3%

- FY2022: 0.5%

- FY2023: -2.6%

- FY2024: -0.6%

- FY2025: -1.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 44% since Apr 2022 · "Energy Division: Loss-making in the second quarter due to low electricity prices." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales -3.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.254Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/52990080SH3454F0QE68/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: SEK 16B 

- FY2017: SEK 16B 

- FY2018: SEK 16B 

- FY2019: SEK 17B 

- FY2020: SEK 16B 

- FY2021: SEK 19B 

- FY2022: SEK 24B 

- FY2023: SEK 23B 

- FY2024: SEK 23B 

- FY2025: SEK 22B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 1.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/52990080SH3454F0QE68/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml; observed 2025-05-08.

- FY2016: 46.6% 

- FY2017: 46.3% 

- FY2018: 49.2% 

- FY2019: 99.7% 

- FY2020: 49.2% 

- FY2021: 50.5% 

- FY2022: 57.4% 

- FY2023: 53.2% 

- FY2024: 45.0% 

- FY2025: 1.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in paper & paper products; annual sales are SEK 22.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: revenue 22056000000; grossProfit 366000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HOLM-B.ST: Holmen AB (publ) engages in the forest, paperboard, paper, wood products, and renewable energy businesses in Sweden and internationally. The company operates through Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper segments. Its Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills. The Renewable energy segment provides renewable energy from hydro and wind power to the Nordic electricity market. Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber; CLT and glulam; and plus wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants. The Board and Paper segment offers paperboards for consumer packaging and paper products for books, magazines, advertising, and transport packaging to brand owners, converters, wholesalers, publishers, printers, and retailers. The company was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 1.7% to 53.2% during 2023–25; it earns 6.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 53.2%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/52990080SH3454F0QE68/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 1.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06074372092343267],[2017,0.06856356343001822],[2018,0.08600442126923553],[2019,0.19760321315852272],[2020,0.043290754990140165],[2021,0.06013121560178304],[2022,0.10279018202601704],[2023,0.06382780107450682],[2024,0.04812762578980449],[2025,0.03606395036079147]]; median 0.06228576099896975. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back SEK 1.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 775000000; owner earnings 1667000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 703000000; owner earnings 1956000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1137000000; owner earnings 2143000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1047000000; owner earnings 8788200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1167000000; owner earnings 1926600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2021: growth capex 452000000; upkeep 1261000000; owner earnings 2955200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15295073091499728.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2022: growth capex 46000000; upkeep 1345000000; owner earnings 5824600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.007897538028362463.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1705000000; owner earnings 3301800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/52990080SH3454F0QE68/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml (filed 2025-05-08); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2115000000; owner earnings 2088600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2139000000; owner earnings 2158800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Dividend observations: [[2016,882000000],[2017,1008000000],[2018,1092000000],[2019,1134000000],[2020,567000000],[2021,1741000000],[2022,1862000000],[2023,2592000000],[2024,1831000000],[2025,1888000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); FY2025: cash repurchases 1649000000 SEK.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 22.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HOLM-B.ST SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 22.305 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-05-08); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03854813814568592. Price 321.2; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 5.5205555648393725 → FY2025 13.978741796684032. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (SEK per share)

- 2016-10: SEK 154.60 per share

- 2016-11: SEK 155.90 per share

- 2016-12: SEK 163.40 per share

- 2017-01: SEK 159.85 per share

- 2017-02: SEK 174.80 per share

- 2017-03: SEK 174.55 per share

- 2017-04: SEK 186.70 per share

- 2017-05: SEK 195.35 per share

- 2017-06: SEK 182.85 per share

- 2017-07: SEK 182.30 per share

- 2017-08: SEK 173.70 per share

- 2017-09: SEK 190.65 per share

- 2017-10: SEK 205.75 per share

- 2017-11: SEK 207.05 per share

- 2017-12: SEK 218.00 per share

- 2018-01: SEK 207.50 per share

- 2018-02: SEK 215.30 per share

- 2018-03: SEK 226.50 per share

- 2018-04: SEK 216.60 per share

- 2018-05: SEK 207.95 per share

- 2018-06: SEK 203.55 per share

- 2018-07: SEK 195.88 per share

- 2018-08: SEK 235.35 per share

- 2018-09: SEK 231.30 per share

- 2018-10: SEK 209.70 per share

- 2018-11: SEK 191.76 per share

- 2018-12: SEK 174.94 per share

- 2019-01: SEK 193.56 per share

- 2019-02: SEK 195.20 per share

- 2019-03: SEK 201.50 per share

- 2019-04: SEK 199.70 per share

- 2019-05: SEK 184.30 per share

- 2019-06: SEK 198.10 per share

- 2019-07: SEK 205.00 per share

- 2019-08: SEK 230.20 per share

- 2019-09: SEK 233.00 per share

- 2019-10: SEK 284.60 per share

- 2019-11: SEK 285.20 per share

- 2019-12: SEK 285.20 per share

- 2020-01: SEK 285.40 per share

- 2020-02: SEK 269.60 per share

- 2020-03: SEK 272.80 per share

- 2020-04: SEK 285.40 per share

- 2020-05: SEK 309.00 per share

- 2020-06: SEK 297.20 per share

- 2020-07: SEK 299.80 per share

- 2020-08: SEK 307.80 per share

- 2020-09: SEK 333.00 per share

- 2020-10: SEK 337.40 per share

- 2020-11: SEK 370.60 per share

- 2020-12: SEK 393.60 per share

- 2021-01: SEK 383.00 per share

- 2021-02: SEK 371.40 per share

- 2021-03: SEK 383.40 per share

- 2021-04: SEK 399.00 per share

- 2021-05: SEK 381.70 per share

- 2021-06: SEK 386.30 per share

- 2021-07: SEK 452.80 per share

- 2021-08: SEK 438.50 per share

- 2021-09: SEK 386.10 per share

- 2021-10: SEK 380.80 per share

- 2021-11: SEK 404.90 per share

- 2021-12: SEK 434.70 per share

- 2022-01: SEK 448.40 per share

- 2022-02: SEK 467.60 per share

- 2022-03: SEK 527.40 per share

- 2022-04: SEK 573.40 per share

- 2022-05: SEK 501.20 per share

- 2022-06: SEK 414.90 per share

- 2022-07: SEK 415.90 per share

- 2022-08: SEK 458.60 per share

- 2022-09: SEK 424.50 per share

- 2022-10: SEK 400.60 per share

- 2022-11: SEK 429.90 per share

- 2022-12: SEK 413.90 per share

- 2023-01: SEK 429.80 per share

- 2023-02: SEK 423.00 per share

- 2023-03: SEK 399.20 per share

- 2023-04: SEK 387.30 per share

- 2023-05: SEK 410.40 per share

- 2023-06: SEK 387.40 per share

- 2023-07: SEK 405.50 per share

- 2023-08: SEK 415.50 per share

- 2023-09: SEK 425.80 per share

- 2023-10: SEK 420.70 per share

- 2023-11: SEK 439.90 per share

- 2023-12: SEK 425.70 per share

- 2024-01: SEK 411.60 per share

- 2024-02: SEK 415.80 per share

- 2024-03: SEK 435.40 per share

- 2024-04: SEK 431.60 per share

- 2024-05: SEK 439.40 per share

- 2024-06: SEK 417.20 per share

- 2024-07: SEK 420.80 per share

- 2024-08: SEK 420.20 per share

- 2024-09: SEK 439.40 per share

- 2024-10: SEK 420.20 per share

- 2024-11: SEK 410.80 per share

- 2024-12: SEK 406.20 per share

- 2025-01: SEK 420.40 per share

- 2025-02: SEK 423.40 per share

- 2025-03: SEK 397.20 per share

- 2025-04: SEK 382.60 per share

- 2025-05: SEK 396.00 per share

- 2025-06: SEK 375.20 per share

- 2025-07: SEK 364.00 per share

- 2025-08: SEK 368.40 per share

- 2025-09: SEK 357.40 per share

- 2025-10: SEK 359.20 per share

- 2025-11: SEK 345.60 per share

- 2025-12: SEK 354.40 per share

- 2026-01: SEK 333.80 per share

- 2026-02: SEK 356.60 per share

- 2026-03: SEK 337.00 per share

- 2026-04: SEK 317.60 per share

- 2026-05: SEK 307.20 per share

- 2026-06: SEK 304.60 per share

- 2026-07: SEK 323.00 per share

- 2026-08: SEK 327.60 per share

- 2026-09: SEK 323.20 per share

- 2026-10: SEK 321.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (SEK per share)

- FY2016: low SEK 67.98 per share, central SEK 77.35 per share, high SEK 89.83 per share

- FY2017: low SEK 88.91 per share, central SEK 101.15 per share, high SEK 117.43 per share

- FY2018: low SEK 111.17 per share, central SEK 126.50 per share, high SEK 146.90 per share

- FY2019: low SEK 138.25 per share, central SEK 157.19 per share, high SEK 182.41 per share

- FY2020: low SEK 134.15 per share, central SEK 152.63 per share, high SEK 177.23 per share

- FY2021: low SEK 175.78 per share, central SEK 199.92 per share, high SEK 232.05 per share

- FY2022: low SEK 276.53 per share, central SEK 342.68 per share, high SEK 398.41 per share

- FY2023: low SEK 268.12 per share, central SEK 339.04 per share, high SEK 395.23 per share

- FY2024: low SEK 252.43 per share, central SEK 322.57 per share, high SEK 376.91 per share

- FY2025: low SEK 226.11 per share, central SEK 257.29 per share, high SEK 298.79 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:18.417Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/52990080SH3454F0QE68/2024-12-31/ESEF/SE/0/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv/reports/holm-2024-12-31-0-sv.xhtml); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-05-08.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.