# HighPeak Energy (HPK.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HPK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:06.673Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $9.95 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $15.18 per share, central $17.13 per share, high $19.73 per share. Buy at or below the central value $17.13 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:06.673Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.9% at the stated quote. About 15.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 7.53×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -1.43×

- FY2020: -1.19×

- FY2021: 0.46×

- FY2022: 0.56×

- FY2023: 0.38×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 14.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 14.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 20.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 132.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -1.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -2.1%

- FY2020: -5.1%

- FY2021: 12.7%

- FY2022: 17.4%

- FY2023: 13.0%

- FY2024: 10.0%

- FY2025: 4.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.65×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $403M

- Net income, five-year total: $622M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 3.3 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: -0.27×

- FY2025: -4.24×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -2.1% vs 10.0%

- Per-share earnings: -0.13 to 0.74 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 6.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.5%

- Per-share value change: $0.86

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.74

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: -2.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -$0.13

- FY2020: -$1.11

- FY2021: $0.59

- FY2022: $2.13

- FY2023: $1.75

- FY2024: $0.74

- FY2025: $0.15

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -14.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.81×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 26.98×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -2.2%

- FY2020: -19.1%

- FY2021: -11.2%

- FY2022: -11.7%

- FY2023: -17.5%

- FY2024: -19.4%

- FY2025: -14.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 69% since May 2022 · sales -19.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:53.909Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -19.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792849/000143774926007770/hpe20251231_10k.htm; observed 2026-03-11.

- FY2019: $8.1M 

- FY2020: $25M 

- FY2021: $220M 

- FY2022: $756M 

- FY2023: $1.1B 

- FY2024: $1.1B 

- FY2025: $863M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 20.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792849/000143774926007770/hpe20251231_10k.htm; observed 2026-03-11.

- FY2019: 0.3% 

- FY2021: 54.1% 

- FY2022: 62.2% 

- FY2023: 43.5% 

- FY2024: 35.2% 

- FY2025: 20.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 863.4 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792849/000143774926007770/hpe20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-03-11); FY2025: revenue 863359000; grossProfit 178706000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20.7% to 43.5% during 2023–25; it earns 10% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792849/000143774926007770/hpe20251231_10k.htm (filed 2026-03-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 20.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,-0.021247697514360776],[2020,-0.050636976672670565],[2021,0.12656568353883998],[2022,0.17385908892866775],[2023,0.1302152702874519],[2024,0.10018675079784473],[2025,0.042351360447451504]]; median 0.10018675079784473. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 7 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2021: growth capex 225628000; upkeep 65368000; owner earnings 55559000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.061052214762685.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2022: growth capex 1133604000; upkeep 177742000; owner earnings 236854000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.786087632043368.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); FY2023: growth capex 701511000; upkeep 424424000; owner earnings 215866000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.2497521610628817.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); Dividend observations: [[2019,10815250],[2020,2780000],[2021,12630000],[2022,11608000],[2023,13115000],[2024,22191000],[2025,23004000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 82.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); HPK.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 82.298 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 6.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.10448173741963682. Price 9.95; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2018-05: $9.63 per share

- 2018-06: $9.64 per share

- 2018-07: $9.64 per share

- 2018-08: $9.70 per share

- 2018-09: $9.71 per share

- 2018-10: $9.74 per share

- 2018-11: $9.80 per share

- 2018-12: $9.84 per share

- 2019-01: $9.98 per share

- 2019-02: $9.95 per share

- 2019-03: $10.05 per share

- 2019-04: $10.10 per share

- 2019-05: $10.08 per share

- 2019-06: $10.14 per share

- 2019-07: $10.17 per share

- 2019-08: $10.22 per share

- 2019-09: $10.25 per share

- 2019-10: $10.28 per share

- 2019-11: $10.33 per share

- 2019-12: $10.37 per share

- 2020-01: $10.42 per share

- 2020-02: $10.46 per share

- 2020-03: $10.39 per share

- 2020-04: $10.48 per share

- 2020-05: $10.90 per share

- 2020-06: $10.51 per share

- 2020-07: $10.65 per share

- 2020-08: $7.25 per share

- 2020-09: $7.05 per share

- 2020-10: $4.56 per share

- 2020-11: $5.37 per share

- 2020-12: $15.97 per share

- 2021-01: $14.91 per share

- 2021-02: $12.29 per share

- 2021-03: $6.05 per share

- 2021-04: $9.60 per share

- 2021-05: $10.20 per share

- 2021-06: $10.23 per share

- 2021-07: $10.90 per share

- 2021-08: $9.67 per share

- 2021-09: $9.00 per share

- 2021-10: $14.13 per share

- 2021-11: $13.59 per share

- 2021-12: $14.64 per share

- 2022-01: $17.77 per share

- 2022-02: $21.14 per share

- 2022-03: $22.20 per share

- 2022-04: $27.31 per share

- 2022-05: $31.87 per share

- 2022-06: $25.62 per share

- 2022-07: $24.58 per share

- 2022-08: $25.32 per share

- 2022-09: $21.66 per share

- 2022-10: $23.32 per share

- 2022-11: $23.98 per share

- 2022-12: $22.87 per share

- 2023-01: $27.96 per share

- 2023-02: $26.75 per share

- 2023-03: $23.00 per share

- 2023-04: $19.76 per share

- 2023-05: $12.34 per share

- 2023-06: $10.88 per share

- 2023-07: $15.15 per share

- 2023-08: $14.73 per share

- 2023-09: $16.88 per share

- 2023-10: $17.71 per share

- 2023-11: $15.38 per share

- 2023-12: $14.24 per share

- 2024-01: $13.65 per share

- 2024-02: $16.57 per share

- 2024-03: $15.77 per share

- 2024-04: $14.21 per share

- 2024-05: $15.78 per share

- 2024-06: $14.06 per share

- 2024-07: $16.81 per share

- 2024-08: $16.08 per share

- 2024-09: $13.88 per share

- 2024-10: $12.80 per share

- 2024-11: $15.07 per share

- 2024-12: $14.70 per share

- 2025-01: $13.63 per share

- 2025-02: $12.92 per share

- 2025-03: $12.66 per share

- 2025-04: $8.01 per share

- 2025-05: $9.89 per share

- 2025-06: $9.80 per share

- 2025-07: $9.97 per share

- 2025-08: $7.70 per share

- 2025-09: $7.07 per share

- 2025-10: $6.65 per share

- 2025-11: $6.71 per share

- 2025-12: $4.74 per share

- 2026-01: $4.55 per share

- 2026-02: $5.21 per share

- 2026-03: $6.90 per share

- 2026-04: $6.78 per share

- 2026-05: $7.10 per share

- 2026-06: $6.99 per share

- 2026-07: $7.15 per share

- 2026-08: $8.19 per share

- 2026-09: $8.16 per share

- 2026-10: $9.95 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $20.58 per share, central $23.22 per share, high $26.74 per share

- FY2024: low $18.08 per share, central $20.50 per share, high $23.73 per share

- FY2025: low $15.78 per share, central $17.80 per share, high $20.48 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792849/000143774926007770/hpe20251231_10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.