# HP (HPQ.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HPQ

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:07.282Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $30.85 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $43.65 per share, central $49.21 per share, high $56.62 per share. Buy at or below the central value $49.21 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:07.282Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 14.9% at the stated quote. About 14.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.09×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.07×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.07×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: 58.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 33.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 20.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 10

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: >100%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 86.0%

- FY2017: 58.9%

- FY2018: 71.6%

- FY2019: 98.8%

- FY2020: 58.9%

- FY2021: 64.9%

- FY2022: 35.6%

- FY2023: 35.7%

- FY2024: 33.7%

- FY2025: 32.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.04×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $19B

- Net income, five-year total: $18B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -1.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.03×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.07×

- FY2024: 1.09×

- FY2025: 1.01×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 71.6% vs 33.7%

- Per-share earnings: 1.48 to 2.81 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -6.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -7.7%

- Market cap gain: $677M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -6.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -7.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.3%

- Per-share value change: $1.32

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.48

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.81

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.44

- Average buyback yield: 8.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $5.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $35B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 71.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 33.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.43

- FY2017: $1.48

- FY2018: $3.26

- FY2019: $2.07

- FY2020: $1.98

- FY2021: $5.36

- FY2022: $2.98

- FY2023: $3.26

- FY2024: $2.81

- FY2025: $2.65

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 14.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.46×

- Accounting red flags: 0

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.5%

- FY2017: -3.5%

- FY2018: 2.3%

- FY2019: -4.5%

- FY2020: -4.3%

- FY2021: 0.3%

- FY2022: -3.5%

- FY2023: -0.8%

- FY2024: -2.4%

- FY2025: -2.8%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 21% since May 2022 · "HP Inc. Withholds Outlook, Warning PC Sales Will Drop Through 2027" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +3.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:54.006Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 5.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-27: HP beats third-quarter revenue estimates on AI PC adoption, Windows 11 upgrade ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hp-beats-third-quarter-revenue-201049866.html))

- 2025-11-25: HP Inc shares slide after softer 2026 earnings forecast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hp-inc-shares-slide-softer-220308119.html))

- 2026-01-15: Soaring Memory Prices Lift Chipmakers, Pressure Apple and HP ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soaring-memory-prices-lift-chipmakers-152001445.html))

- 2026-05-27: HP beats revenue, profit estimates as AI PC and Windows 11 refresh boost demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hp-beats-revenue-profit-estimates-201653550.html))

- 2026-07-11: HP (HPQ) Looks Fully Valued On OpenAI Deal And Earnings Beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hp-hpq-looks-fully-valued-051525856.html))

- 2026-08-27: HP Q3 2026 earnings: record revenue but PC shipments drop 16% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hp-q3-2026-earnings-record-125155738.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721725000071/hpq-20251031.htm; observed 2025-12-10.

- FY2016: $48B 

- FY2017: $52B 

- FY2018: $58B 

- FY2019: $59B 

- FY2020: $57B 

- FY2021: $63B 

- FY2022: $63B 

- FY2023: $54B 

- FY2024: $54B 

- FY2025: $55B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 20%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721725000071/hpq-20251031.htm; observed 2025-12-10.

- FY2016: 18.7% 

- FY2017: 18.4% 

- FY2018: 18.2% 

- FY2019: 19.0% 

- FY2020: 18.4% 

- FY2021: 21.1% 

- FY2022: 19.5% 

- FY2023: 21.4% 

- FY2024: 22.1% 

- FY2025: 20.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in computer hardware; annual sales are USD 55.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721725000071/hpq-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-10); FY2025: revenue 55295000000; grossProfit 11047000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HPQ.US: HP Inc. provides personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, gaming, and other related technologies in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment offers commercial and consumer desktops and notebooks, workstations, thin clients, retail point-of-sale systems, displays, software, hybrid systems, and endpoint security and services, as well as lifecycle services, including support and deployment, configurations, and extended warranty services. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, and solutions, as well as office and home printing solutions; and focuses on graphics, 3D printing, and personalization solutions for the commercial and industrial markets. The Corporate Investments segment is involved in the business incubation and investment projects. It serves small- and medium-sized businesses, public sector, and enterprises. The company was formerly known as Hewlett-Packard Company and changed its name to HP Inc. in October 2015. HP Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20% to 22.1% during 2023–25; it earns 58.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 21.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721725000071/hpq-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 20%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.8603703645776312],[2017,0.5887412670455064],[2018,0.7163425579655947],[2019,0.9875191034131432],[2020,0.5892426632698293],[2021,0.6492525705447694],[2022,0.3562646878092942],[2023,0.35739400206825234],[2024,0.3374219706020159],[2025,0.3260434133730401]]; median 0.5889919651576678. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 19% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721725000071/hpq-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-10); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.21126693980460132],[2022,0.19492926402797647],[2023,0.2142298670836591]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 850 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 433000000; owner earnings 2395000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2017: growth capex 48000000; upkeep 354000000; owner earnings 2526000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.019002375296912115.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2018: growth capex 18000000; upkeep 528000000; owner earnings 5327000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.003379012577435705.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 671000000; owner earnings 3225000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 580000000; owner earnings 3024000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 582000000; owner earnings 6744000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 791000000; owner earnings 3121000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 609000000; owner earnings 3504000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 592000000; owner earnings 3013000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721725000071/hpq-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-10); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 897000000; owner earnings 2548000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,858000000],[2017,894000000],[2018,899000000],[2019,970000000],[2020,997000000],[2021,938000000],[2022,1037000000],[2023,1036000000],[2024,1075000000],[2025,1088000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721725000071/hpq-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 850000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HPQ.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.302 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We are heavily dependent on third-party suppliers and supply chain issues have adversely affected" (SEC filing, Dec 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721725000071/hpq-20251031.htm (filed 2025-12-10); We are heavily dependent on third-party suppliers and supply chain issues have adversely affected

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 5.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.09045608929616938. Price 30.85; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.729847494553377 → FY2025 2.6736621196222456. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $14.49 per share

- 2016-11: $15.40 per share

- 2016-12: $14.84 per share

- 2017-01: $15.05 per share

- 2017-02: $17.37 per share

- 2017-03: $17.88 per share

- 2017-04: $18.82 per share

- 2017-05: $18.76 per share

- 2017-06: $17.48 per share

- 2017-07: $19.10 per share

- 2017-08: $19.08 per share

- 2017-09: $19.96 per share

- 2017-10: $21.55 per share

- 2017-11: $21.45 per share

- 2017-12: $21.01 per share

- 2018-01: $23.32 per share

- 2018-02: $23.39 per share

- 2018-03: $21.92 per share

- 2018-04: $21.49 per share

- 2018-05: $22.03 per share

- 2018-06: $22.69 per share

- 2018-07: $23.08 per share

- 2018-08: $24.65 per share

- 2018-09: $25.77 per share

- 2018-10: $24.14 per share

- 2018-11: $23.00 per share

- 2018-12: $20.46 per share

- 2019-01: $22.03 per share

- 2019-02: $19.73 per share

- 2019-03: $19.43 per share

- 2019-04: $19.95 per share

- 2019-05: $18.68 per share

- 2019-06: $20.79 per share

- 2019-07: $21.04 per share

- 2019-08: $18.29 per share

- 2019-09: $18.92 per share

- 2019-10: $17.37 per share

- 2019-11: $20.08 per share

- 2019-12: $20.55 per share

- 2020-01: $21.32 per share

- 2020-02: $20.79 per share

- 2020-03: $17.36 per share

- 2020-04: $15.51 per share

- 2020-05: $15.14 per share

- 2020-06: $17.43 per share

- 2020-07: $17.58 per share

- 2020-08: $19.55 per share

- 2020-09: $18.99 per share

- 2020-10: $17.96 per share

- 2020-11: $21.93 per share

- 2020-12: $24.59 per share

- 2021-01: $24.34 per share

- 2021-02: $28.97 per share

- 2021-03: $31.75 per share

- 2021-04: $34.11 per share

- 2021-05: $29.23 per share

- 2021-06: $30.19 per share

- 2021-07: $28.87 per share

- 2021-08: $29.74 per share

- 2021-09: $27.36 per share

- 2021-10: $30.33 per share

- 2021-11: $35.28 per share

- 2021-12: $37.67 per share

- 2022-01: $36.73 per share

- 2022-02: $34.36 per share

- 2022-03: $36.30 per share

- 2022-04: $36.63 per share

- 2022-05: $38.84 per share

- 2022-06: $32.78 per share

- 2022-07: $33.39 per share

- 2022-08: $28.71 per share

- 2022-09: $24.92 per share

- 2022-10: $27.62 per share

- 2022-11: $30.04 per share

- 2022-12: $26.87 per share

- 2023-01: $29.14 per share

- 2023-02: $29.52 per share

- 2023-03: $29.35 per share

- 2023-04: $29.71 per share

- 2023-05: $29.06 per share

- 2023-06: $30.71 per share

- 2023-07: $32.83 per share

- 2023-08: $29.71 per share

- 2023-09: $25.70 per share

- 2023-10: $26.33 per share

- 2023-11: $29.34 per share

- 2023-12: $30.09 per share

- 2024-01: $28.71 per share

- 2024-02: $28.33 per share

- 2024-03: $30.22 per share

- 2024-04: $28.09 per share

- 2024-05: $36.50 per share

- 2024-06: $35.02 per share

- 2024-07: $36.09 per share

- 2024-08: $36.18 per share

- 2024-09: $35.87 per share

- 2024-10: $35.52 per share

- 2024-11: $35.43 per share

- 2024-12: $32.63 per share

- 2025-01: $32.50 per share

- 2025-02: $30.87 per share

- 2025-03: $27.69 per share

- 2025-04: $25.57 per share

- 2025-05: $24.90 per share

- 2025-06: $24.46 per share

- 2025-07: $24.80 per share

- 2025-08: $28.54 per share

- 2025-09: $27.23 per share

- 2025-10: $27.67 per share

- 2025-11: $24.42 per share

- 2025-12: $22.28 per share

- 2026-01: $19.44 per share

- 2026-02: $18.99 per share

- 2026-03: $19.21 per share

- 2026-04: $20.86 per share

- 2026-05: $27.04 per share

- 2026-06: $21.94 per share

- 2026-07: $27.27 per share

- 2026-08: $30.02 per share

- 2026-09: $31.28 per share

- 2026-10: $30.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $20.63 per share, central $23.05 per share, high $26.28 per share

- FY2017: low $23.60 per share, central $26.28 per share, high $29.84 per share

- FY2018: low $38.51 per share, central $43.43 per share, high $49.97 per share

- FY2019: low $25.34 per share, central $28.53 per share, high $32.77 per share

- FY2020: low $26.10 per share, central $29.31 per share, high $33.58 per share

- FY2021: low $33.69 per share, central $37.99 per share, high $43.72 per share

- FY2022: low $37.74 per share, central $42.70 per share, high $49.30 per share

- FY2023: low $34.26 per share, central $38.70 per share, high $44.62 per share

- FY2024: low $35.49 per share, central $40.08 per share, high $46.19 per share

- FY2025: low $38.39 per share, central $43.31 per share, high $49.86 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47217/000004721725000071/hpq-20251031.htm); period 2025-10-31, filed 2025-12-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.