# Herc Holdings (HRI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HRI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:08.307Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $124.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $196.89 per share, central $264.74 per share, high $310.10 per share. Buy at or below the central value $264.74 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:08.307Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 17.6% at the stated quote. About 17.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.44×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.22×

- FY2022: 0.24×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.15×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 33.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.5%

- FY2017: 3.2%

- FY2018: 7.7%

- FY2019: 6.3%

- FY2020: 7.9%

- FY2021: 10.8%

- FY2022: 11.7%

- FY2023: 11.6%

- FY2024: 11.0%

- FY2025: 5.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 13.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.91×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.2% vs 11.0%

- Per-share earnings: 3.69 to 7.40 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Market cap gain: $3.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.1%

- Per-share value change: $3.72

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.40

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.48

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.70

- FY2017: $5.60

- FY2018: $2.39

- FY2019: $1.63

- FY2020: $2.51

- FY2021: $7.37

- FY2022: $10.93

- FY2023: $12.09

- FY2024: $7.40

- FY2025: $0.03

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1,119.00×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 2.33×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -13.6%

- FY2017: -5.1%

- FY2018: -13.6%

- FY2019: -15.4%

- FY2020: -15.0%

- FY2021: -11.6%

- FY2022: -9.8%

- FY2023: -10.5%

- FY2024: -12.9%

- FY2025: -8.1%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 47% since Nov 2024 · "Herc (NYSE:HRI) Exceeds Q2 CY2026 Expectations But Full-Year Sales Guidance Misses Expectations Significantly" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +22.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:54.318Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-22: Herc’s (NYSE:HRI) Q1 Sales Beat Estimates But Full-Year Sales Guidance Misses Expectations Significantly ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/herc-nyse-hri-q1-sales-104318268.html))

- 2025-07-29: Herc (NYSE:HRI) Surprises With Q2 Sales But Full-Year Sales Guidance Misses Expectations Significantly ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/herc-nyse-hri-surprises-q2-104813501.html))

- 2026-07-28: Herc Holdings Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Increases 2026 Full Year Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/herc-holdings-reports-second-quarter-103000552.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +22.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364479/000136447926000050/hri-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: $1.6B 

- FY2017: $1.8B 

- FY2018: $2.0B 

- FY2019: $2.0B 

- FY2020: $1.8B 

- FY2021: $2.1B 

- FY2022: $2.7B 

- FY2023: $3.3B 

- FY2024: $3.6B 

- FY2025: $4.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 28.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364479/000136447926000050/hri-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17.

- FY2016: 22.6% 

- FY2017: 24.2% 

- FY2018: 26.4% 

- FY2019: 27.1% 

- FY2020: 29.6% 

- FY2021: 36.5% 

- FY2022: 38.9% 

- FY2023: 37.3% 

- FY2024: 37.8% 

- FY2025: 28.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in rental & leasing services; annual sales are USD 4.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364479/000136447926000050/hri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 4376000000; grossProfit 1234000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HRI.US: Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company offers ProSolutions, an industry specific solution-based services, which include power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pump, trench shoring, and studio and production equipment; and ProContractor professional grade tools. In addition, it provides various services, including repair, maintenance, equipment management, and safety training; and equipment re-rental and on-site support services, as well as ancillary services, such as equipment transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor. Further, the company sells used equipment and contractor supplies, such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies. It serves non-residential and residential construction, specialty trade, restoration, remediation and environment, and facility maintenance contractors; industrial manufacturing industries, including refineries and petrochemical, automotive and aerospace, power, metals and mining, agriculture, pulp, paper and wood, and food and beverage industries; infrastructure and government sectors; and commercial facilities, commercial warehousing, education, healthcare, data centers, hospitality, retail, special event management and non-account customers. The company sells its products through its sales team and industry catalogs, as well as through participation and sponsorship of industry events, trade shows, and Internet. Herc Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1965 and is based in Bonita Springs, Florida.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28.2% to 37.8% during 2023–25; it earns 7.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 37.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.8%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364479/000136447926000050/hri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.025214161201958993],[2017,0.031590472242113594],[2018,0.07717948717948718],[2019,0.0630897635117948],[2020,0.07936757293131179],[2021,0.10801092174819327],[2022,0.11698254628214812],[2023,0.1157410396185764],[2024,0.11038053233036592],[2025,0.05196858124693176]]; median 0.07827353005539948. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 13.7% on new investment; paid dividends in 9 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 145600000; upkeep 430400000; owner earnings 160300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9082969432314411.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 344708722.51890814; upkeep 504291277.48109186; owner earnings 9608722.518908143. Growth capex / owner earnings = 35.874563121225194.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 385500000; owner earnings 154600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 153800000; upkeep 488000000; owner earnings 224000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6866071428571429.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 641200000; upkeep 631000000; owner earnings 330000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.943030303030303.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 721000000; upkeep 755000000; owner earnings 347000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.077809798270893.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 385058981.59912086; upkeep 823941018.4008791; owner earnings 193058981.59912086. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.9945147250319606.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364479/000136447926000050/hri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 174000000; upkeep 1080000000; owner earnings 1000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 174.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Incremental return on capital 0.13726324857528432, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,2071900000],[2017,0],[2018,14800000],[2019,500000],[2020,4900000],[2021,14800000],[2022,68100000],[2023,73000000],[2024,77000000],[2025,87000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364479/000136447926000050/hri-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: cash repurchases 8000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HRI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.185 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07651398253117664. Price 124; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -4.791390728476821 → FY2025 0.03184713375796178. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $30.09 per share

- 2016-11: $39.74 per share

- 2016-12: $40.16 per share

- 2017-01: $49.67 per share

- 2017-02: $51.69 per share

- 2017-03: $48.89 per share

- 2017-04: $45.47 per share

- 2017-05: $37.83 per share

- 2017-06: $39.32 per share

- 2017-07: $45.38 per share

- 2017-08: $42.22 per share

- 2017-09: $49.13 per share

- 2017-10: $48.46 per share

- 2017-11: $59.18 per share

- 2017-12: $62.61 per share

- 2018-01: $65.72 per share

- 2018-02: $65.21 per share

- 2018-03: $64.95 per share

- 2018-04: $52.65 per share

- 2018-05: $54.65 per share

- 2018-06: $56.34 per share

- 2018-07: $56.82 per share

- 2018-08: $52.58 per share

- 2018-09: $51.20 per share

- 2018-10: $32.06 per share

- 2018-11: $35.67 per share

- 2018-12: $25.99 per share

- 2019-01: $37.05 per share

- 2019-02: $44.00 per share

- 2019-03: $38.98 per share

- 2019-04: $48.16 per share

- 2019-05: $34.03 per share

- 2019-06: $45.83 per share

- 2019-07: $45.14 per share

- 2019-08: $41.28 per share

- 2019-09: $46.51 per share

- 2019-10: $44.26 per share

- 2019-11: $46.76 per share

- 2019-12: $48.94 per share

- 2020-01: $40.12 per share

- 2020-02: $36.68 per share

- 2020-03: $20.46 per share

- 2020-04: $28.23 per share

- 2020-05: $28.50 per share

- 2020-06: $30.73 per share

- 2020-07: $33.54 per share

- 2020-08: $40.95 per share

- 2020-09: $39.61 per share

- 2020-10: $44.36 per share

- 2020-11: $57.28 per share

- 2020-12: $66.41 per share

- 2021-01: $63.98 per share

- 2021-02: $87.76 per share

- 2021-03: $101.33 per share

- 2021-04: $105.60 per share

- 2021-05: $115.02 per share

- 2021-06: $112.07 per share

- 2021-07: $124.04 per share

- 2021-08: $131.45 per share

- 2021-09: $163.46 per share

- 2021-10: $182.04 per share

- 2021-11: $170.45 per share

- 2021-12: $156.55 per share

- 2022-01: $160.45 per share

- 2022-02: $159.12 per share

- 2022-03: $167.09 per share

- 2022-04: $127.82 per share

- 2022-05: $117.22 per share

- 2022-06: $90.15 per share

- 2022-07: $124.02 per share

- 2022-08: $112.53 per share

- 2022-09: $103.88 per share

- 2022-10: $117.61 per share

- 2022-11: $128.17 per share

- 2022-12: $131.57 per share

- 2023-01: $155.32 per share

- 2023-02: $143.59 per share

- 2023-03: $113.90 per share

- 2023-04: $100.02 per share

- 2023-05: $101.42 per share

- 2023-06: $136.85 per share

- 2023-07: $133.83 per share

- 2023-08: $130.14 per share

- 2023-09: $118.94 per share

- 2023-10: $106.79 per share

- 2023-11: $123.66 per share

- 2023-12: $148.89 per share

- 2024-01: $147.49 per share

- 2024-02: $158.68 per share

- 2024-03: $168.30 per share

- 2024-04: $143.03 per share

- 2024-05: $145.07 per share

- 2024-06: $133.29 per share

- 2024-07: $155.84 per share

- 2024-08: $146.37 per share

- 2024-09: $159.43 per share

- 2024-10: $209.14 per share

- 2024-11: $232.00 per share

- 2024-12: $189.33 per share

- 2025-01: $203.96 per share

- 2025-02: $143.48 per share

- 2025-03: $134.27 per share

- 2025-04: $109.44 per share

- 2025-05: $124.00 per share

- 2025-06: $131.69 per share

- 2025-07: $116.81 per share

- 2025-08: $130.79 per share

- 2025-09: $116.66 per share

- 2025-10: $142.05 per share

- 2025-11: $134.27 per share

- 2025-12: $148.38 per share

- 2026-01: $143.34 per share

- 2026-02: $139.79 per share

- 2026-03: $99.55 per share

- 2026-04: $126.92 per share

- 2026-05: $133.00 per share

- 2026-06: $143.34 per share

- 2026-07: $150.14 per share

- 2026-08: $152.34 per share

- 2026-09: $124.80 per share

- 2026-10: $124.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $3.22 per share, central $3.66 per share, high $4.25 per share

- FY2021: low $64.69 per share, central $73.61 per share, high $85.48 per share

- FY2022: low $86.07 per share, central $97.94 per share, high $113.73 per share

- FY2023: low $132.34 per share, central $150.56 per share, high $174.82 per share

- FY2024: low $174.68 per share, central $241.28 per share, high $282.92 per share

- FY2025: low $188.91 per share, central $254.00 per share, high $297.53 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:51.005Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1364479/000136447926000050/hri-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.