# Hormel Foods (HRL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HRL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:08.618Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $20.19 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $17.45 per share, central $19.70 per share, high $22.70 per share. Buy at or below the central value $19.70 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:08.618Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.8% at the stated quote. About 9.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.22×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.05×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 23.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 15.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 32.2%

- FY2018: 33.1%

- FY2019: 32.3%

- FY2020: 26.5%

- FY2021: 19.1%

- FY2022: 20.9%

- FY2023: 15.6%

- FY2024: 16.1%

- FY2025: 10.1%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 7.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -11.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.98×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.97×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.83×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 32.2% vs 15.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.57 to 1.45 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: -$9.0B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $2.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -1.0%

- Per-share value change: -$0.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.57

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.45

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.54

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $6.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $8.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 32.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.64

- FY2017: $1.57

- FY2018: $1.86

- FY2019: $1.80

- FY2020: $1.66

- FY2021: $1.66

- FY2022: $1.82

- FY2023: $1.45

- FY2024: $1.47

- FY2025: $0.87

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.77×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.83×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.6%

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -2.8%

- FY2019: 0.7%

- FY2020: -2.2%

- FY2021: -0.7%

- FY2022: -1.0%

- FY2023: -1.9%

- FY2024: -3.4%

- FY2025: -2.7%

## Holders

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 61% since Apr 2022 · "Hormel Foods Trims Full-Year Sales Guidance Amid Weak Consumer Demand" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +1.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:54.404Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-29: Hormel Foods tightens annual profit forecast amid weak retail demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hormel-foods-tightens-annual-profit-121132323.html))

- 2025-08-28: Hormel Foods Lowers Fiscal 2025 Bottom-Line Outlook as Third-Quarter Earnings Unexpectedly Decline ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hormel-foods-lowers-fiscal-2025-143105181.html))

- 2025-10-29: Hormel Cuts Forecast on Price Pressure, Consumer Backdrop; Parts Ways With CFO ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6914bd9a-369f-3934-a08b-a139ae17094a/hormel-cuts-forecast-on-price.html))

- 2026-02-17: HRL's Pricing and Cost Actions to Support Margins in FY26 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hrls-pricing-cost-actions-support-142000183.html))

- 2026-04-25: Hormel Refocuses On JENNIE O As Turkey Asset Sale Reshapes Value ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hormel-refocuses-jennie-o-turkey-160747434.html))

- 2026-08-27: Hormel Foods Trims Full-Year Sales Guidance Amid Weak Consumer Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hormel-foods-trims-full-sales-143656173.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48465/000004846525000059/hrl-20251026.htm; observed 2025-12-05.

- FY2016: $9.5B 

- FY2017: $9.2B 

- FY2018: $9.5B 

- FY2019: $9.5B 

- FY2020: $9.6B 

- FY2021: $11B 

- FY2022: $12B 

- FY2023: $12B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48465/000004846525000059/hrl-20251026.htm; observed 2025-12-05.

- FY2016: 22.7% 

- FY2017: 21.8% 

- FY2018: 20.7% 

- FY2019: 19.8% 

- FY2020: 19.0% 

- FY2021: 16.9% 

- FY2022: 17.4% 

- FY2023: 16.5% 

- FY2024: 17.0% 

- FY2025: 15.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are USD 12.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48465/000004846525000059/hrl-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-05); FY2025: revenue 12106160000; grossProfit 1891816000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HRL.US: Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nut, and other food products to foodservice, convenience stores, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International. The company provides perishable products, including fresh meats, frozen items, refrigerated meal solutions, bacon, sausages, hams, guacamole, and other items that require refrigeration, as well as shelf-stable products, such as canned luncheon meats, nut butters, snack nuts, chili, shelf-stable microwaveable meals, hash, stews, tortillas, salsas, tortilla chips, and other items that do not require refrigeration. It sells its products under the HORMEL, ALWAYS TENDER, APPLEGATE, AUSTIN BLUES, BACON 1, BLACK LABEL, BREAD READY, BURKE, CAFÉ H, CERATTI, CHI-CHI'S, COLUMBUS, COMPLEATS, CORN NUTS, CURE 81, DAN'S PRIZE, DI LUSSO, DINTY MOORE, DON MIGUEL, DOÑA MARIA, EMBASA, FAST "N EASY, FIRE BRAISED, FONTANINI, HERDEZ, HORMEL GATHERINGS, HOUSE OF TSANG, JENNIE-O, JUSTIN'S, LA VICTORIA, LAYOUT, LLOYD'S, MARY KITCHEN, MR. PEANUT, NATURAL CHOICE, NUT-RITION, OLD SMOKEHOUSE, OVEN READY, PILLOW PACK, PLANTERS, ROSA GRANDE, SADLER'S SMOKEHOUSE, SKIPPY, SPAM, SQUARE TABLE, SPECIAL RECIPE, VALLEY FRESH, and WHOLLY brands through sales personnel, independent brokers, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Geo. A. Hormel & Company and changed its name to Hormel Foods Corporation in January 1995. Hormel Foods Corporation was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Austin, Minnesota.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.6% to 17% during 2023–25; it earns 23.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48465/000004846525000059/hrl-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.25536170833812627],[2017,0.32213211306919587],[2018,0.3313616407297027],[2019,0.3225199048881128],[2020,0.2648653916972227],[2021,0.19147659360838212],[2022,0.20918830183672468],[2023,0.1564105056026993],[2024,0.16076603545814194],[2025,0.10085551722385669]]; median 0.2322750050874255. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 17% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48465/000004846525000059/hrl-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-05); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.16931969072355993],[2022,0.17374746825658896],[2023,0.16513950029768762]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 7.2% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2016: growth capex 28752934.33413917; upkeep 220544065.66586083; owner earnings 801475934.3341391. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.035874981521468785.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 217276000; owner earnings 760436000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2018: growth capex 47085958.025968194; upkeep 332772041.9740318; owner earnings 841225958.0259682. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05597302077608342.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 256436000; owner earnings 887579000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2020: growth capex 17224823.935202718; upkeep 350276176.0647973; owner earnings 763586823.9352027. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0225577804583286.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2021: growth capex 20891000; upkeep 209309000; owner earnings 908839000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.022986469550712502.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2022: growth capex 14941000; upkeep 262753000; owner earnings 999987000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.014941194235525063.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 270211000; owner earnings 776672000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 256441000; owner earnings 806353000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48465/000004846525000059/hrl-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-05); FY2025: growth capex 33549788.31394708; upkeep 277352211.6860529; owner earnings 464745788.3139471. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07218954782928207.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); Dividend observations: [[2016,296493000],[2017,346010000],[2018,388107000],[2019,437053000],[2020,487376000],[2021,523114000],[2022,557839000],[2023,592932000],[2024,614960000],[2025,633192000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HRL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.469 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"The Company is subject to the risk of disruption of operations" (SEC filing, Dec 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48465/000004846525000059/hrl-20251026.htm (filed 2025-12-05); The Company is subject to the risk of disruption of operations

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 4.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.004590997519550499. Price 20.19; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.2827309326028369 → FY2025 0.8442309995239694. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $38.50 per share

- 2016-11: $34.24 per share

- 2016-12: $34.81 per share

- 2017-01: $36.30 per share

- 2017-02: $35.25 per share

- 2017-03: $34.63 per share

- 2017-04: $35.08 per share

- 2017-05: $33.63 per share

- 2017-06: $34.11 per share

- 2017-07: $34.17 per share

- 2017-08: $30.74 per share

- 2017-09: $32.14 per share

- 2017-10: $31.16 per share

- 2017-11: $36.45 per share

- 2017-12: $36.39 per share

- 2018-01: $34.33 per share

- 2018-02: $32.46 per share

- 2018-03: $34.32 per share

- 2018-04: $36.25 per share

- 2018-05: $35.89 per share

- 2018-06: $37.21 per share

- 2018-07: $35.97 per share

- 2018-08: $39.15 per share

- 2018-09: $39.40 per share

- 2018-10: $43.64 per share

- 2018-11: $45.09 per share

- 2018-12: $42.68 per share

- 2019-01: $42.32 per share

- 2019-02: $43.36 per share

- 2019-03: $44.76 per share

- 2019-04: $39.94 per share

- 2019-05: $39.49 per share

- 2019-06: $40.54 per share

- 2019-07: $40.99 per share

- 2019-08: $42.61 per share

- 2019-09: $43.73 per share

- 2019-10: $40.89 per share

- 2019-11: $44.53 per share

- 2019-12: $45.11 per share

- 2020-01: $47.26 per share

- 2020-02: $41.60 per share

- 2020-03: $46.64 per share

- 2020-04: $46.85 per share

- 2020-05: $48.83 per share

- 2020-06: $48.27 per share

- 2020-07: $50.86 per share

- 2020-08: $50.98 per share

- 2020-09: $48.89 per share

- 2020-10: $48.69 per share

- 2020-11: $47.18 per share

- 2020-12: $46.61 per share

- 2021-01: $46.86 per share

- 2021-02: $46.37 per share

- 2021-03: $47.78 per share

- 2021-04: $46.20 per share

- 2021-05: $48.54 per share

- 2021-06: $47.75 per share

- 2021-07: $46.38 per share

- 2021-08: $45.54 per share

- 2021-09: $41.00 per share

- 2021-10: $42.32 per share

- 2021-11: $41.40 per share

- 2021-12: $48.81 per share

- 2022-01: $47.47 per share

- 2022-02: $47.64 per share

- 2022-03: $51.54 per share

- 2022-04: $52.39 per share

- 2022-05: $48.67 per share

- 2022-06: $47.36 per share

- 2022-07: $49.34 per share

- 2022-08: $50.28 per share

- 2022-09: $45.44 per share

- 2022-10: $46.45 per share

- 2022-11: $47.00 per share

- 2022-12: $45.55 per share

- 2023-01: $45.31 per share

- 2023-02: $44.38 per share

- 2023-03: $39.88 per share

- 2023-04: $40.44 per share

- 2023-05: $38.25 per share

- 2023-06: $40.22 per share

- 2023-07: $40.88 per share

- 2023-08: $38.59 per share

- 2023-09: $38.03 per share

- 2023-10: $32.55 per share

- 2023-11: $30.59 per share

- 2023-12: $32.11 per share

- 2024-01: $30.37 per share

- 2024-02: $35.32 per share

- 2024-03: $34.89 per share

- 2024-04: $35.56 per share

- 2024-05: $30.98 per share

- 2024-06: $30.49 per share

- 2024-07: $32.11 per share

- 2024-08: $32.55 per share

- 2024-09: $31.70 per share

- 2024-10: $30.55 per share

- 2024-11: $32.43 per share

- 2024-12: $31.37 per share

- 2025-01: $29.98 per share

- 2025-02: $28.63 per share

- 2025-03: $30.94 per share

- 2025-04: $29.90 per share

- 2025-05: $30.68 per share

- 2025-06: $30.25 per share

- 2025-07: $28.09 per share

- 2025-08: $25.44 per share

- 2025-09: $24.74 per share

- 2025-10: $21.59 per share

- 2025-11: $23.21 per share

- 2025-12: $23.70 per share

- 2026-01: $24.61 per share

- 2026-02: $25.60 per share

- 2026-03: $22.65 per share

- 2026-04: $21.47 per share

- 2026-05: $23.23 per share

- 2026-06: $24.82 per share

- 2026-07: $25.01 per share

- 2026-08: $21.85 per share

- 2026-09: $19.94 per share

- 2026-10: $20.19 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $16.29 per share, central $22.72 per share, high $26.60 per share

- FY2017: low $15.01 per share, central $17.04 per share, high $19.74 per share

- FY2018: low $20.96 per share, central $29.39 per share, high $34.42 per share

- FY2019: low $17.63 per share, central $19.97 per share, high $23.08 per share

- FY2020: low $22.16 per share, central $28.21 per share, high $32.54 per share

- FY2021: low $23.30 per share, central $30.35 per share, high $35.39 per share

- FY2022: low $21.39 per share, central $24.31 per share, high $28.03 per share

- FY2023: low $20.35 per share, central $23.24 per share, high $26.85 per share

- FY2024: low $20.14 per share, central $23.16 per share, high $26.77 per share

- FY2025: low $17.10 per share, central $19.34 per share, high $22.32 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:51.329Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/48465/000004846525000059/hrl-20251026.htm); period 2025-10-26, filed 2025-12-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.