Margins varied 17.8% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 21.3%
- Worst year
- 12.1%
- Latest · LTM
- 17.6%
# Hershey (HSY.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HSY Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:09.833Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $168.68 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $114.03 per share, central $138.13 per share, high $160.54 per share. Buy at or below the central value $138.13 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:09.833Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 8.7% at the stated quote. About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 0 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.18× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.17× - FY2018: 0.21× - FY2019: 0.20× - FY2020: 0.22× - FY2021: 0.23× - FY2022: 0.22× - FY2023: 0.23× - FY2024: 0.26× - FY2025: 0.12× - LTM to Jun 2026: 0.18× ### moat: fail - Recent gross margin fell 12.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp) - ROIC, median of available years: 35.6% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 29.7% - Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.0 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.2% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.3% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 4.8% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 19.8% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 29.7% - FY2017: 34.0% - FY2018: 38.9% - FY2019: 35.4% - FY2020: 38.8% - FY2021: 32.6% - FY2022: 36.3% - FY2023: 35.8% - FY2024: 38.7% - FY2025: 16.8% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: $7.8B - Net income, five-year total: $8.1B - Return on incremental invested capital: 34.1% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.1 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.9% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: 1.00× - FY2022: 1.00× - FY2023: 0.93× - FY2024: 0.94× - FY2025: 1.00× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years) - potential debt-funded buybacks (informational) - buybacks unrelated to price (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 34.0% vs 35.8% - Per-share earnings: 3.37 to 9.07 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.7% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6% - Market cap gain: $15B - Cumulative retained earnings: -$621M - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.7% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025 - Per-share value growth: 13.2% - Per-share value change: $5.70 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.37 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.07 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.28 - Average buyback yield: 1.3% - Buyback history: 9 years - Debt-funded buybacks: Yes - Acquisition spending: $4.7B - Cumulative net income, 10 years: $13B - ROIC, first three-year median: 34.0% - ROIC, last three-year median: 35.8% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: $3.37 - FY2017: $3.68 - FY2018: $5.58 - FY2019: $5.46 - FY2020: $6.11 - FY2021: $7.12 - FY2022: $7.97 - FY2023: $9.07 - FY2024: $10.92 - FY2025: $4.35 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -10.1% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.87× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.9% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 2.58× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.18× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -4.8% - FY2017: -8.4% - FY2018: -5.5% - FY2019: -7.5% - FY2020: -4.6% - FY2021: -5.8% - FY2022: -6.2% - FY2023: -3.9% - FY2024: -2.4% - FY2025: -10.1% ## Holders - [Steven Check](https://gigainvestors.com/CHE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Down 38% since Apr 2023 · "Hershey Faces Mars-Led Market Shares Losses, With Tougher Comparison Seen Ahead, RBC Says" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +4% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:54.613Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 5.1% a year for ten years - 2025-07-30: Hershey beats quarterly estimates on strong Easter demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/hershey-beats-quarterly-estimates-strong-175538945.html)) - 2025-10-30: Hershey Warns of Weak Halloween Sales, Nudges Up Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-warns-weak-halloween-sales-142034131.html)) - 2025-11-17: Hershey (HSY) Is Up 6.1% After Securing Key Cocoa Tariff Exemption - What's Changed ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-hsy-6-1-securing-042811583.html)) - 2026-01-10: Why The Narrative Around Hershey (HSY) Is Shifting As Cocoa Relief Meets Demand Questions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-narrative-around-hershey-hsy-190943164.html)) - 2026-02-05: Hershey Expects Higher Prices to Boost 2026 Profit ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/90e6d96b-3ad1-3449-ba95-5802aba5a5d4/hershey-expects-higher-prices.html)) - 2026-04-30: Hershey beats Q1 expectations but dips on softer guidance outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hershey-beats-q1-expectations-dips-141529383.html)) ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026008586/hsy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17. - FY2017: $7.5B - FY2018: $7.8B - FY2019: $8.0B - FY2020: $8.1B - FY2021: $9.0B - FY2022: $10B - FY2023: $11B - FY2024: $11B - FY2025: $12B - FY2026: $12B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 33.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026008586/hsy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-17. - FY2016: 42.6% - FY2017: 46.0% - FY2018: 45.9% - FY2019: 45.4% - FY2020: 45.4% - FY2021: 45.1% - FY2022: 43.2% - FY2023: 44.8% - FY2024: 47.3% - FY2025: 33.3% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in confectioners; annual sales are USD 11.7 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026008586/hsy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: revenue 11692576000; grossProfit 3889946000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HSY.US: The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International. The company offers chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products, including mints, chewing gums, and bubble gums; protein bars; pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings, beverages, and sundae syrups; and snack items comprising spreads, bars, snack bites, mixes, popcorn, and pretzels. It provides its products primarily under the Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Almond Joy, Brookside, barkTHINS, Cadbury, Good & Plenty, Heath, Kit Kat, Payday, Rolo, Twizzlers, Sour Strips, Whoppers, York, Ice Breakers, Breath Savers, Bubble Yum, Lily's, SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar brands, as well as under the Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit brands. The company markets and sells its products to wholesale distributors, chain grocery stores, mass merchandisers, chain drug stores, vending companies, wholesale clubs, convenience stores, dollar stores, concessionaires, and department stores. It exports its products in approximately 65 countries worldwide. The Hershey Company was founded in 1894 and is based in Hershey, Pennsylvania. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 33.3% to 47.3% during 2023–25; it earns 35.6% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 44.8%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 47.3%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026008586/hsy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.3%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.29723206538667984],[2017,0.3395743206773559],[2018,0.38891363719608374],[2019,0.3544116656391132],[2020,0.3876548217053545],[2021,0.3260947428443124],[2022,0.3627896122330199],[2023,0.35830635803405025],[2024,0.38690282803673154],[2025,0.1684786613592573]]; median 0.3563590118365817. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Can it raise prices Price realization increased approximately 1% as a result of lower trade promotional activities. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026008586/hsy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); The increase reflected a volume increase of approximately 8%, primarily related to Dot’s Homestyle Pretzels and SkinnyPop, partially offset by a reduction of net sales to private label customers. Price realization increased approximately 1% as a result of lower trade promotional activities. Additionally, the 2025 acquisition of LesserEvil contributed a benefit of approximately 2%. ### Where the cash goes Spends 2.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 34.1% on new investment. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 269476000; owner earnings 752405000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 257675000; owner earnings 787159000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2018: growth capex 33457000; upkeep 295144000; owner earnings 1177562000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.028412092102156828. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2019: growth capex 26648000; upkeep 291544000; owner earnings 1149692000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.023178381688313043. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2020: growth capex 45652820.413422704; upkeep 395973179.5865773; owner earnings 1177641820.4134226. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03876630366047619. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2021: growth capex 180875000; upkeep 315002000; owner earnings 1477512000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1224186334865639. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2022: growth capex 140522000; upkeep 378959000; owner earnings 1644817000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08543321232696403. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2023: growth capex 212990571.93697882; upkeep 558118428.0630212; owner earnings 1723483571.9369788. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12358143437224887. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); FY2024: growth capex 11162188.558254361; upkeep 594779811.4417456; owner earnings 2081714188.5582542. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.005362017811861593. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026008586/hsy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); FY2025: growth capex 24518000; upkeep 503701000; owner earnings 883259000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.027758562324301253. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Incremental return on capital 0.3406980572994959, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Dividend observations: [[2016,499475000],[2017,526272000],[2018,562521000],[2019,610312000],[2020,640732000],[2021,685987000],[2022,775030000],[2023,889071000],[2024,1084802000],[2025,1085296000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 0.3% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HSY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.312 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What could break it "Market demand for new and existing products could decline." (SEC filing, Feb 2026) - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026008586/hsy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-17); Market demand for new and existing products could decline. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 5.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05975715977284801. Price 168.68; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.8352033018824756 → FY2025 4.345335668532859. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2016-10: $102.46 per share - 2016-11: $96.64 per share - 2016-12: $103.43 per share - 2017-01: $105.47 per share - 2017-02: $108.35 per share - 2017-03: $109.25 per share - 2017-04: $108.20 per share - 2017-05: $115.27 per share - 2017-06: $107.37 per share - 2017-07: $105.31 per share - 2017-08: $104.92 per share - 2017-09: $109.17 per share - 2017-10: $106.18 per share - 2017-11: $110.93 per share - 2017-12: $113.51 per share - 2018-01: $110.33 per share - 2018-02: $98.26 per share - 2018-03: $98.96 per share - 2018-04: $91.94 per share - 2018-05: $90.04 per share - 2018-06: $93.06 per share - 2018-07: $98.21 per share - 2018-08: $100.52 per share - 2018-09: $102.00 per share - 2018-10: $107.15 per share - 2018-11: $108.30 per share - 2018-12: $107.18 per share - 2019-01: $106.10 per share - 2019-02: $110.68 per share - 2019-03: $114.83 per share - 2019-04: $124.85 per share - 2019-05: $131.96 per share - 2019-06: $134.03 per share - 2019-07: $151.74 per share - 2019-08: $158.48 per share - 2019-09: $154.99 per share - 2019-10: $146.87 per share - 2019-11: $148.16 per share - 2019-12: $146.98 per share - 2020-01: $155.17 per share - 2020-02: $143.99 per share - 2020-03: $132.50 per share - 2020-04: $132.43 per share - 2020-05: $135.68 per share - 2020-06: $129.62 per share - 2020-07: $145.41 per share - 2020-08: $148.64 per share - 2020-09: $143.34 per share - 2020-10: $137.46 per share - 2020-11: $147.89 per share - 2020-12: $152.33 per share - 2021-01: $145.44 per share - 2021-02: $145.65 per share - 2021-03: $158.16 per share - 2021-04: $164.30 per share - 2021-05: $173.05 per share - 2021-06: $174.18 per share - 2021-07: $178.88 per share - 2021-08: $177.70 per share - 2021-09: $169.25 per share - 2021-10: $175.35 per share - 2021-11: $177.49 per share - 2021-12: $193.47 per share - 2022-01: $197.07 per share - 2022-02: $202.26 per share - 2022-03: $216.63 per share - 2022-04: $225.77 per share - 2022-05: $211.71 per share - 2022-06: $215.16 per share - 2022-07: $227.96 per share - 2022-08: $224.67 per share - 2022-09: $220.47 per share - 2022-10: $238.77 per share - 2022-11: $235.17 per share - 2022-12: $231.57 per share - 2023-01: $224.60 per share - 2023-02: $238.32 per share - 2023-03: $254.41 per share - 2023-04: $273.06 per share - 2023-05: $259.70 per share - 2023-06: $249.70 per share - 2023-07: $231.31 per share - 2023-08: $214.86 per share - 2023-09: $200.08 per share - 2023-10: $187.35 per share - 2023-11: $187.92 per share - 2023-12: $186.44 per share - 2024-01: $193.54 per share - 2024-02: $187.92 per share - 2024-03: $194.50 per share - 2024-04: $193.92 per share - 2024-05: $197.83 per share - 2024-06: $183.83 per share - 2024-07: $197.48 per share - 2024-08: $193.06 per share - 2024-09: $191.78 per share - 2024-10: $177.58 per share - 2024-11: $176.13 per share - 2024-12: $169.35 per share - 2025-01: $149.25 per share - 2025-02: $172.71 per share - 2025-03: $171.03 per share - 2025-04: $167.19 per share - 2025-05: $160.69 per share - 2025-06: $165.95 per share - 2025-07: $186.13 per share - 2025-08: $183.75 per share - 2025-09: $187.05 per share - 2025-10: $169.63 per share - 2025-11: $188.08 per share - 2025-12: $181.98 per share - 2026-01: $194.75 per share - 2026-02: $236.28 per share - 2026-03: $207.89 per share - 2026-04: $185.74 per share - 2026-05: $194.03 per share - 2026-06: $175.45 per share - 2026-07: $175.05 per share - 2026-08: $176.21 per share - 2026-09: $157.61 per share - 2026-10: $163.05 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2016: low $42.97 per share, central $51.61 per share, high $60.07 per share - FY2017: low $53.62 per share, central $77.72 per share, high $91.16 per share - FY2018: low $56.91 per share, central $82.07 per share, high $96.11 per share - FY2019: low $59.29 per share, central $85.76 per share, high $100.53 per share - FY2020: low $86.05 per share, central $123.37 per share, high $144.19 per share - FY2021: low $91.46 per share, central $133.09 per share, high $156.31 per share - FY2022: low $112.09 per share, central $162.94 per share, high $191.31 per share - FY2023: low $122.74 per share, central $178.64 per share, high $209.83 per share - FY2024: low $128.68 per share, central $186.58 per share, high $218.87 per share - FY2025: low $109.17 per share, central $132.06 per share, high $153.35 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:52.460Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/47111/000162828026008586/hsy-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-17. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
HSY · US
S&P 500
Not a wonderful business
1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 17.8% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
Gross margin fell 12 percentage points (limit 4).
Each $1 of profit left $0.97 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Per-share value rose from 3.37 to 9.07, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -10.1% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 20.2%, three-year average owner earnings per share 7.66 USD.
| Value range | $114.03 – $160.54 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $138.13 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 168.68 / 138.13 = -22.1% |
| Return / year | About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash USD 9.56/share; 2.3% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash USD 2.73/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |