# Heartland Express (HTLD.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HTLD

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:10.402Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $11.13 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $4.82 per share, central $5.39 per share, high $6.16 per share. Buy at or below the central value $5.39 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:10.402Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.1% at the stated quote. About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.42×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.00×

- FY2024: -0.03×

- FY2025: -0.08×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 11.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -7.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 11.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 7.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 22.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 17.3%

- FY2018: 22.0%

- FY2019: 16.1%

- FY2020: 14.8%

- FY2021: 19.6%

- FY2022: 7.3%

- FY2023: 0.1%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: -8.5%

- LTM to Jun 2026: -7.5%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.32×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $192M

- Net income, five-year total: $145M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -54.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.64×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: -1.42×

- FY2025: 0.94×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.2% vs -3.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.84 to -0.38 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Market cap gain: -$996M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $340M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$1.22

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.84

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.38

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.26

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $319M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $493M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -3.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.68

- FY2017: $0.90

- FY2018: $0.88

- FY2019: $0.89

- FY2020: $0.87

- FY2021: $1.00

- FY2022: $1.69

- FY2023: $0.19

- FY2024: -$0.38

- FY2025: -$0.67

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.52×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -13.5%

- FY2017: -4.4%

- FY2018: -9.2%

- FY2019: -8.2%

- FY2020: -11.4%

- FY2021: -4.8%

- FY2022: -3.7%

- FY2023: -10.0%

- FY2024: -13.0%

- FY2025: -11.9%

## Holders

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 34% since Dec 2021 · sales -8.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:54.733Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -8.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799233/000079923326000006/htld-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-03.

- FY2017: $607M 

- FY2018: $611M 

- FY2019: $597M 

- FY2020: $645M 

- FY2021: $607M 

- FY2022: $968M 

- FY2023: $1.2B 

- FY2024: $1.0B 

- FY2025: $806M 

- FY2026: $736M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 7.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799233/000079923326000006/htld-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-03.

- FY2017: 16.9% 

- FY2018: 20.6% 

- FY2019: 20.5% 

- FY2020: 22.9% 

- FY2021: 21.1% 

- FY2022: 20.7% 

- FY2023: 12.0% 

- FY2024: 10.5% 

- FY2025: 8.4% 

- FY2026: 7.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in trucking; annual sales are USD 805.7 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799233/000079923326000006/htld-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: revenue 805709000; grossProfit 67544000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); HTLD.US: Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It primarily provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload services for shippers; cross-border freight and other transportation services; and temperature-controlled truckload services. The company offers its services under the Heartland Express, Millis Transfer, Smith Transport, and CFI brand names. It primarily serves retailers, manufacturers, and parcel carriers in the consumer goods, appliances, food products, and automotive industries. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.4% to 12% during 2023–25; it earns 11.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 12%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799233/000079923326000006/htld-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 8.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.17321190545634949],[2018,0.22039666099697797],[2019,0.1609972152545489],[2020,0.1482898615199667],[2021,0.19647328626089525],[2022,0.07344258979596419],[2023,0.0011610813014111933],[2024,-0.03149990514570195],[2025,-0.0849013926454009],[2026,-0.07492134410409157]]; median 0.11086622565796544. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 10.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 86088000; owner earnings 75878000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2018: growth capex 2253182.2846235633; upkeep 167022817.71537644; owner earnings 6983182.284623563. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3226583802036644.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 163780000; owner earnings 10119000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2020: growth capex 36546714.07317647; upkeep 167790285.92682353; owner earnings 13396714.073176473. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.7280356864786723.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 132640000; owner earnings 50869000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2022: growth capex 27521000; upkeep 133047000; owner earnings 133584000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20602018205773145.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2023: growth capex 9557000; upkeep 199039000; owner earnings 14775000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6468358714043994.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 109536000; owner earnings 42265000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); Dividend observations: [[2016,6666000],[2017,6667000],[2018,6589000],[2019,6563000],[2020,6502000],[2021,45872000],[2022,6318000],[2023,6322000],[2024,4721000],[2025,6243000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799233/000079923326000006/htld-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-03); FY2025: cash repurchases 10395000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 51.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); HTLD.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 51.38700000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-03); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.14288838987771063. Price 11.13; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.37136231617858084 → FY2025 -0.6341566690190543. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $18.40 per share

- 2016-11: $21.51 per share

- 2016-12: $20.36 per share

- 2017-01: $20.60 per share

- 2017-02: $20.74 per share

- 2017-03: $20.05 per share

- 2017-04: $20.12 per share

- 2017-05: $19.45 per share

- 2017-06: $20.82 per share

- 2017-07: $21.13 per share

- 2017-08: $22.17 per share

- 2017-09: $25.08 per share

- 2017-10: $21.33 per share

- 2017-11: $22.84 per share

- 2017-12: $23.34 per share

- 2018-01: $22.69 per share

- 2018-02: $19.52 per share

- 2018-03: $17.99 per share

- 2018-04: $17.83 per share

- 2018-05: $18.68 per share

- 2018-06: $18.55 per share

- 2018-07: $19.19 per share

- 2018-08: $20.45 per share

- 2018-09: $19.73 per share

- 2018-10: $19.47 per share

- 2018-11: $20.75 per share

- 2018-12: $18.30 per share

- 2019-01: $20.01 per share

- 2019-02: $20.09 per share

- 2019-03: $19.28 per share

- 2019-04: $19.68 per share

- 2019-05: $17.88 per share

- 2019-06: $18.07 per share

- 2019-07: $19.84 per share

- 2019-08: $20.57 per share

- 2019-09: $21.51 per share

- 2019-10: $20.90 per share

- 2019-11: $21.41 per share

- 2019-12: $21.05 per share

- 2020-01: $18.69 per share

- 2020-02: $17.91 per share

- 2020-03: $18.57 per share

- 2020-04: $19.59 per share

- 2020-05: $21.90 per share

- 2020-06: $20.82 per share

- 2020-07: $20.29 per share

- 2020-08: $20.69 per share

- 2020-09: $18.60 per share

- 2020-10: $18.31 per share

- 2020-11: $18.48 per share

- 2020-12: $18.10 per share

- 2021-01: $18.77 per share

- 2021-02: $18.20 per share

- 2021-03: $19.58 per share

- 2021-04: $18.59 per share

- 2021-05: $18.15 per share

- 2021-06: $17.13 per share

- 2021-07: $17.03 per share

- 2021-08: $16.78 per share

- 2021-09: $16.02 per share

- 2021-10: $16.33 per share

- 2021-11: $16.74 per share

- 2021-12: $16.82 per share

- 2022-01: $14.96 per share

- 2022-02: $14.36 per share

- 2022-03: $14.07 per share

- 2022-04: $13.80 per share

- 2022-05: $14.28 per share

- 2022-06: $13.91 per share

- 2022-07: $15.88 per share

- 2022-08: $15.15 per share

- 2022-09: $14.31 per share

- 2022-10: $14.88 per share

- 2022-11: $16.74 per share

- 2022-12: $15.34 per share

- 2023-01: $16.82 per share

- 2023-02: $16.13 per share

- 2023-03: $15.92 per share

- 2023-04: $14.48 per share

- 2023-05: $15.60 per share

- 2023-06: $16.41 per share

- 2023-07: $16.35 per share

- 2023-08: $15.09 per share

- 2023-09: $14.69 per share

- 2023-10: $11.66 per share

- 2023-11: $13.42 per share

- 2023-12: $14.26 per share

- 2024-01: $12.95 per share

- 2024-02: $12.78 per share

- 2024-03: $11.94 per share

- 2024-04: $9.94 per share

- 2024-05: $11.32 per share

- 2024-06: $12.33 per share

- 2024-07: $12.97 per share

- 2024-08: $12.38 per share

- 2024-09: $12.28 per share

- 2024-10: $10.81 per share

- 2024-11: $12.77 per share

- 2024-12: $11.22 per share

- 2025-01: $11.44 per share

- 2025-02: $10.32 per share

- 2025-03: $9.22 per share

- 2025-04: $7.60 per share

- 2025-05: $8.95 per share

- 2025-06: $8.64 per share

- 2025-07: $7.82 per share

- 2025-08: $8.59 per share

- 2025-09: $8.38 per share

- 2025-10: $7.80 per share

- 2025-11: $7.86 per share

- 2025-12: $9.03 per share

- 2026-01: $10.09 per share

- 2026-02: $11.03 per share

- 2026-03: $10.40 per share

- 2026-04: $13.38 per share

- 2026-05: $14.99 per share

- 2026-06: $15.22 per share

- 2026-07: $12.23 per share

- 2026-08: $12.36 per share

- 2026-09: $11.61 per share

- 2026-10: $11.13 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $9.50 per share, central $10.96 per share, high $12.53 per share

- FY2017: low $4.17 per share, central $4.64 per share, high $5.27 per share

- FY2018: low $2.74 per share, central $2.86 per share, high $3.03 per share

- FY2019: low $1.70 per share, central $1.82 per share, high $1.99 per share

- FY2020: low $2.71 per share, central $2.91 per share, high $3.18 per share

- FY2021: low $3.24 per share, central $3.44 per share, high $3.70 per share

- FY2022: low $3.23 per share, central $3.70 per share, high $4.24 per share

- FY2023: low $3.52 per share, central $3.99 per share, high $4.63 per share

- FY2024: low $5.86 per share, central $6.67 per share, high $7.75 per share

- FY2025: low $4.59 per share, central $5.22 per share, high $6.06 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799233/000079923326000006/htld-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-03.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.