# Hub Group (HUBG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HUBG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:10.852Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $27.49 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $34.67 per share, central $39.35 per share, high $45.57 per share. Buy at or below the central value $39.35 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:10.852Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.2% at the stated quote. About 13.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.41×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.03×

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.03×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- LTM to Sept 2025: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -4.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 23.3%

- FY2016: 19.5%

- FY2017: 13.3%

- FY2018: 12.1%

- FY2019: 15.0%

- FY2020: 9.5%

- FY2021: 18.9%

- FY2022: 31.9%

- FY2023: 13.2%

- FY2024: 8.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.22×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $874M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 26.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: 1.11×

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.26×

- FY2024: 2.36×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2024 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.5% vs 13.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.99 to 2.62 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: $1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2024

- Per-share value growth: 13.0%

- Per-share value change: $1.63

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.99

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.62

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.37

- Average buyback yield: 2.5%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $820M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: $0.99

- FY2016: $1.10

- FY2017: $2.03

- FY2018: $3.01

- FY2019: $1.60

- FY2020: $1.10

- FY2021: $2.53

- FY2022: $5.32

- FY2023: $2.62

- FY2024: $1.70

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 9.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.87×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.66×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: -7.7%

- FY2016: -2.0%

- FY2017: 0.6%

- FY2018: -0.5%

- FY2019: -7.4%

- FY2020: -4.8%

- FY2021: -3.3%

- FY2022: -3.5%

- FY2023: -8.7%

- FY2024: -3.2%

## Holders

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 47% since Nov 2024 · "Hub Group warns of Nasdaq delisting notice; flags H1 operating loss" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales -5.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:54.854Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-10: HUBG Q1 Earnings Call: Management Cites Cost Controls Amid Tariff and Volume Uncertainty ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hubg-q1-earnings-call-management-110133051.html))

- 2025-08-13: HUBG Q2 Deep Dive: Revenue Miss and Cautious Outlook as Tariffs and Demand Weigh ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hubg-q2-deep-dive-revenue-040117286.html))

- 2026-02-06: Shares of Hub Group tank on accounting error ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shares-hub-group-tank-accounting-184509291.html))

- 2026-09-14: Hub Group warns of Nasdaq delisting notice; flags H1 operating loss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hub-group-warns-nasdaq-delisting-142643603.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -5.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940942/000095017025026866/hubg-20241231.htm; observed 2025-02-25.

- FY2016: $3.6B 

- FY2017: $4.0B 

- FY2018: $3.7B 

- FY2019: $3.7B 

- FY2020: $3.5B 

- FY2021: $4.2B 

- FY2022: $5.3B 

- FY2023: $4.2B 

- FY2024: $3.9B 

- FY2025: $3.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 85.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940942/000095017025026866/hubg-20241231.htm; observed 2025-02-25.

- FY2015: 11.7% 

- FY2016: 12.7% 

- FY2017: 11.3% 

- FY2018: 12.1% 

- FY2019: 14.2% 

- FY2020: 12.2% 

- FY2021: 14.2% 

- FY2022: 16.7% 

- FY2023: 12.0% 

- FY2024: 85.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are USD 3.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940942/000095017025026866/hubg-20241231.htm (filed 2025-02-25); FY2024: revenue 3946390000; grossProfit 3368926000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); HUBG.US: Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. It operates in two segments, Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (ITS), and Logistics. The ITS segment offers intermodal and dedicated trucking services, including freight transportation, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking services. The Logistics segment provides transportation management, freight brokerage, shipment optimization, load consolidation, mode selection, carrier management, load planning and execution, warehousing, fulfillment, cross-docking, and consolidation and final mile delivery services. It also provides trucking transportation services, including dry van, expedited, less-than-truckload, and refrigerated and flatbed services. As of December 31, 2024, the company operated a fleet of approximately 2,300 tractors, 3,200 employee drivers, 500 independent owner-operators, and 4,700 trailers; and owned approximately 50,000 dry and 53-foot containers, as well as 900 refrigerated 53-foot containers. It serves a range of industries, including retail, consumer products, automotive, and durable goods. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 12% to 85.4% during 2022–24; it earns 14.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2022: grossProfit / revenue = 16.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 12%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940942/000095017025026866/hubg-20241231.htm (filed 2025-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 85.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2015,0.232836355399929],[2016,0.19519671940324568],[2017,0.13309393674140343],[2018,0.12117901175119153],[2019,0.14993057814755362],[2020,0.09470471748383184],[2021,0.18867936031708893],[2022,0.31895184421503997],[2023,0.13182798918140734],[2024,0.08874040731135008]]; median 0.14151225744447854. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 10 years; bought back USD 79.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2015: growth capex 0; upkeep 83042000; owner earnings 24949000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 4261168.332911432; upkeep 103147831.66708857; owner earnings 16369168.332911432. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2603167275361226.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 12368000; upkeep 62173000; owner earnings 135153000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0915111022322849.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 199791000; owner earnings 85859000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 94847000; owner earnings 129211000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 115306000; owner earnings 81932000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 2323000; upkeep 130629000; owner earnings 171474000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.013547243313855161.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 65414000; upkeep 153726000; owner earnings 356948000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18325918621199727.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 140068000; owner earnings 211909000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940942/000095017025026866/hubg-20241231.htm (filed 2025-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 50847000; owner earnings 245708000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2015,0],[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,30246000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940942/000095017025026866/hubg-20241231.htm (filed 2025-02-25); FY2024: cash repurchases 79055000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); HUBG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.869 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.06502039008972374. Price 27.49; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2014 owner earnings/share -0.362727239217897 → FY2024 4.0211442786069655. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $18.23 per share

- 2016-11: $21.43 per share

- 2016-12: $21.88 per share

- 2017-01: $22.18 per share

- 2017-02: $25.25 per share

- 2017-03: $23.20 per share

- 2017-04: $19.58 per share

- 2017-05: $17.93 per share

- 2017-06: $19.18 per share

- 2017-07: $17.03 per share

- 2017-08: $19.23 per share

- 2017-09: $21.48 per share

- 2017-10: $21.65 per share

- 2017-11: $23.90 per share

- 2017-12: $23.95 per share

- 2018-01: $24.03 per share

- 2018-02: $21.83 per share

- 2018-03: $20.93 per share

- 2018-04: $21.98 per share

- 2018-05: $24.98 per share

- 2018-06: $24.90 per share

- 2018-07: $23.20 per share

- 2018-08: $26.43 per share

- 2018-09: $22.80 per share

- 2018-10: $22.91 per share

- 2018-11: $22.22 per share

- 2018-12: $18.54 per share

- 2019-01: $22.26 per share

- 2019-02: $21.49 per share

- 2019-03: $20.43 per share

- 2019-04: $20.79 per share

- 2019-05: $19.48 per share

- 2019-06: $20.99 per share

- 2019-07: $22.68 per share

- 2019-08: $21.53 per share

- 2019-09: $23.25 per share

- 2019-10: $22.90 per share

- 2019-11: $25.54 per share

- 2019-12: $25.65 per share

- 2020-01: $26.44 per share

- 2020-02: $23.12 per share

- 2020-03: $22.74 per share

- 2020-04: $24.06 per share

- 2020-05: $23.39 per share

- 2020-06: $23.93 per share

- 2020-07: $26.45 per share

- 2020-08: $26.92 per share

- 2020-09: $25.10 per share

- 2020-10: $25.07 per share

- 2020-11: $27.31 per share

- 2020-12: $28.50 per share

- 2021-01: $26.32 per share

- 2021-02: $28.79 per share

- 2021-03: $33.64 per share

- 2021-04: $32.86 per share

- 2021-05: $34.91 per share

- 2021-06: $32.99 per share

- 2021-07: $33.14 per share

- 2021-08: $35.10 per share

- 2021-09: $34.38 per share

- 2021-10: $39.29 per share

- 2021-11: $38.84 per share

- 2021-12: $42.12 per share

- 2022-01: $37.86 per share

- 2022-02: $42.20 per share

- 2022-03: $38.61 per share

- 2022-04: $33.58 per share

- 2022-05: $36.49 per share

- 2022-06: $35.47 per share

- 2022-07: $38.20 per share

- 2022-08: $39.91 per share

- 2022-09: $34.49 per share

- 2022-10: $38.80 per share

- 2022-11: $42.08 per share

- 2022-12: $39.75 per share

- 2023-01: $42.64 per share

- 2023-02: $45.87 per share

- 2023-03: $41.97 per share

- 2023-04: $37.70 per share

- 2023-05: $36.78 per share

- 2023-06: $40.16 per share

- 2023-07: $45.07 per share

- 2023-08: $39.02 per share

- 2023-09: $39.27 per share

- 2023-10: $34.38 per share

- 2023-11: $37.78 per share

- 2023-12: $45.97 per share

- 2024-01: $45.28 per share

- 2024-02: $42.53 per share

- 2024-03: $43.22 per share

- 2024-04: $40.22 per share

- 2024-05: $43.15 per share

- 2024-06: $43.05 per share

- 2024-07: $46.77 per share

- 2024-08: $47.13 per share

- 2024-09: $45.45 per share

- 2024-10: $43.39 per share

- 2024-11: $51.64 per share

- 2024-12: $44.56 per share

- 2025-01: $44.61 per share

- 2025-02: $41.10 per share

- 2025-03: $37.17 per share

- 2025-04: $31.59 per share

- 2025-05: $33.71 per share

- 2025-06: $33.43 per share

- 2025-07: $35.02 per share

- 2025-08: $37.42 per share

- 2025-09: $34.44 per share

- 2025-10: $36.83 per share

- 2025-11: $38.57 per share

- 2025-12: $42.61 per share

- 2026-01: $47.58 per share

- 2026-02: $43.07 per share

- 2026-03: $36.04 per share

- 2026-04: $43.83 per share

- 2026-05: $41.54 per share

- 2026-06: $43.79 per share

- 2026-07: $46.53 per share

- 2026-08: $39.87 per share

- 2026-09: $29.58 per share

- 2026-10: $27.49 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2015: low $5.70 per share, central $6.22 per share, high $6.92 per share

- FY2016: low $3.46 per share, central $3.82 per share, high $4.31 per share

- FY2017: low $3.54 per share, central $4.74 per share, high $5.55 per share

- FY2018: low $4.81 per share, central $6.25 per share, high $7.30 per share

- FY2019: low $18.61 per share, central $25.72 per share, high $29.95 per share

- FY2020: low $14.16 per share, central $16.00 per share, high $18.45 per share

- FY2021: low $26.35 per share, central $32.97 per share, high $38.32 per share

- FY2022: low $37.52 per share, central $48.05 per share, high $55.74 per share

- FY2023: low $32.51 per share, central $39.05 per share, high $45.24 per share

- FY2024: low $35.91 per share, central $40.82 per share, high $47.35 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/940942/000095017025026866/hubg-20241231.htm); period 2024-12-31, filed 2025-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.