# Humana (HUM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HUM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:11.400Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $432.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $310.08 per share, central $352.83 per share, high $409.75 per share. Buy at or below the central value $352.83 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:11.400Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.7% at the stated quote. About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: 0.01×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 13.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 29.1%

- FY2018: 16.8%

- FY2019: 26.6%

- FY2020: 28.7%

- FY2021: 19.8%

- FY2022: 21.8%

- FY2023: 17.4%

- FY2024: 7.2%

- FY2025: 7.2%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 4.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $11B

- Net income, five-year total: $11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -8.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -16.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.87×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.33×

- FY2025: 1.23×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.8% vs 7.2%

- Per-share earnings: 8.44 to 9.99 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Market cap gain: $156M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $18B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 2.1%

- Per-share value change: $1.54

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $8.44

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.99

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.56

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $21B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $4.07

- FY2017: $16.81

- FY2018: $12.16

- FY2019: $20.09

- FY2020: $25.31

- FY2021: $22.67

- FY2022: $22.08

- FY2023: $20.00

- FY2024: $9.99

- FY2025: $9.83

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 0.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 26.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.78×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.61×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.1%

- FY2017: -6.0%

- FY2018: -1.9%

- FY2019: -8.9%

- FY2020: -6.5%

- FY2021: 1.5%

- FY2022: -4.1%

- FY2023: -3.2%

- FY2024: -3.8%

- FY2025: 0.5%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 23% since Oct 2022 · "Humana cuts 2026 profit outlook on lower Medicare star ratings" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +12.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:54.983Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-16: Humana (NYSE:HUM) Lowers Full-Year Earnings Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/humana-nyse-hum-lowers-full-173215640.html))

- 2025-11-05: Humana Cuts Earnings Outlook as Medical Costs Surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/4f2b572e-b6ba-3b5a-888b-707bfc64c976/humana-cuts-earnings-outlook.html))

- 2026-01-28: UnitedHealth, Humana, CVS Shares Get Crushed As Trump Administration Proposes Lower-Than-Expected Medicare Insurer Rates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-humana-cvs-shares-crushed-043108013.html))

- 2026-04-06: Humana shares surge 12% on 2027 Medicare rate boost; UNH, CVS rally ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/humana-shares-surge-12-2027-205831451.html))

- 2026-05-17: Humana Expands Barostim Coverage What It Could Mean For Valuation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/humana-expands-barostim-coverage-could-171134218.html))

- 2026-06-12: Humana Reshapes Care Exposure With Gentiva Exit And Illinois Medicaid Win ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/humana-reshapes-care-exposure-gentiva-051252146.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $54B 

- FY2018: $57B 

- FY2019: $65B 

- FY2020: $77B 

- FY2021: $84B 

- FY2022: $93B 

- FY2023: $106B 

- FY2024: $118B 

- FY2025: $130B 

- FY2026: $146B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 13.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: 13.2% 

- FY2018: 19.7% 

- FY2019: 17.2% 

- FY2020: 20.3% 

- FY2021: 17.3% 

- FY2022: 18.5% 

- FY2023: 17.0% 

- FY2024: 14.6% 

- FY2025: 14.5% 

- FY2026: 13.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in healthcare plans; annual sales are USD 129.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 129664000000; grossProfit 18852000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HUM.US: Humana Inc. provides medical and specialty insurance products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Insurance and CenterWell. The Insurance segment offers individual Medicare Advantage products, including health insurance benefits, including wellness programs, chronic care management, and care coordination; individual Medicare stand-alone prescription drug products (PDP); group Medicare advantage and Medicare stand-alone PDP; Medicare supplements; specialty and ancillary insurance comprising dental, vision, life and disability; and administrative services to arrange health care services for active-duty and retired military personnel and dependents, as well as pharmacy benefit managers. Its CenterWell segment operates full-service, value-based senior focused primary care centers under the Conviva Senior Primary Care and CenterWell Senior Primary Care brands; a management services organization; CenterWell Home Health, a home health provider; and OneHome, which manages post-acute patient needs, as well as provides pharmacy and hospice solutions. The company was formerly known as Extendicare Inc. and changed its name to Humana Inc. in April 1974. Humana Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.5% to 17% during 2023–25; it earns 18.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 14.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 14.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.2906170184164538],[2018,0.16846846846846847],[2019,0.26620119972465334],[2020,0.28650442477876104],[2021,0.19798906808826505],[2022,0.2178679729414509],[2023,0.17386435220830126],[2024,0.07233510099505454],[2025,0.07200143643763467],[2026,0.04927283756668896]]; median 0.18592671014828316. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 19% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.17273574980872228],[2022,0.18544585781623296],[2023,0.1695415257422022]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 151 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 3155689.6565178633; upkeep 523844310.34348214; owner earnings 555155689.6565179. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0056843327292031.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 526000000; owner earnings 2407000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 78000000; upkeep 534000000; owner earnings 1683000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04634581105169341.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 161000000; upkeep 575000000; owner earnings 2707000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.059475434059844845.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 348000000; upkeep 616000000; owner earnings 3367000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10335610335610336.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 229291995.63275814; upkeep 1086708004.3672419; owner earnings 2559291995.632758. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08959196372435342.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2022: growth capex 275000000; upkeep 845000000; owner earnings 2806000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09800427655024947.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 87000000; upkeep 917000000; owner earnings 2489000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03495379670550422.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 575000000; owner earnings 1600000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 546000000; owner earnings 1466000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,177000000],[2017,220000000],[2018,265000000],[2019,291000000],[2020,323000000],[2021,354000000],[2022,392000000],[2023,431000000],[2024,431000000],[2025,430000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 151000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HUM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.20600000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Changes in the prescription drug industry pricing benchmarks may adversely affect our financial performance." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); Changes in the prescription drug industry pricing benchmarks may adversely affect our financial performance.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 3.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03622880482529697. Price 432.2; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 8.44239192282754 → FY2025 12.133150149802194. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $171.53 per share

- 2016-11: $212.64 per share

- 2016-12: $204.03 per share

- 2017-01: $198.50 per share

- 2017-02: $211.25 per share

- 2017-03: $206.14 per share

- 2017-04: $221.98 per share

- 2017-05: $232.26 per share

- 2017-06: $240.62 per share

- 2017-07: $231.20 per share

- 2017-08: $257.62 per share

- 2017-09: $243.63 per share

- 2017-10: $255.35 per share

- 2017-11: $260.86 per share

- 2017-12: $248.07 per share

- 2018-01: $281.83 per share

- 2018-02: $271.82 per share

- 2018-03: $268.83 per share

- 2018-04: $294.18 per share

- 2018-05: $290.98 per share

- 2018-06: $297.63 per share

- 2018-07: $314.18 per share

- 2018-08: $333.26 per share

- 2018-09: $338.52 per share

- 2018-10: $320.41 per share

- 2018-11: $329.47 per share

- 2018-12: $286.48 per share

- 2019-01: $308.99 per share

- 2019-02: $285.04 per share

- 2019-03: $266.00 per share

- 2019-04: $255.41 per share

- 2019-05: $244.86 per share

- 2019-06: $265.30 per share

- 2019-07: $296.75 per share

- 2019-08: $283.21 per share

- 2019-09: $255.67 per share

- 2019-10: $294.20 per share

- 2019-11: $341.23 per share

- 2019-12: $366.52 per share

- 2020-01: $336.24 per share

- 2020-02: $319.68 per share

- 2020-03: $314.02 per share

- 2020-04: $381.82 per share

- 2020-05: $410.65 per share

- 2020-06: $387.75 per share

- 2020-07: $392.45 per share

- 2020-08: $415.17 per share

- 2020-09: $413.89 per share

- 2020-10: $399.28 per share

- 2020-11: $400.52 per share

- 2020-12: $410.27 per share

- 2021-01: $383.11 per share

- 2021-02: $379.65 per share

- 2021-03: $419.25 per share

- 2021-04: $445.24 per share

- 2021-05: $437.70 per share

- 2021-06: $442.72 per share

- 2021-07: $425.86 per share

- 2021-08: $405.42 per share

- 2021-09: $389.15 per share

- 2021-10: $463.16 per share

- 2021-11: $419.71 per share

- 2021-12: $463.86 per share

- 2022-01: $392.50 per share

- 2022-02: $434.32 per share

- 2022-03: $435.17 per share

- 2022-04: $444.56 per share

- 2022-05: $454.23 per share

- 2022-06: $468.07 per share

- 2022-07: $482.00 per share

- 2022-08: $481.78 per share

- 2022-09: $485.19 per share

- 2022-10: $558.08 per share

- 2022-11: $549.90 per share

- 2022-12: $512.19 per share

- 2023-01: $511.70 per share

- 2023-02: $495.02 per share

- 2023-03: $485.46 per share

- 2023-04: $530.49 per share

- 2023-05: $501.87 per share

- 2023-06: $447.13 per share

- 2023-07: $456.83 per share

- 2023-08: $461.63 per share

- 2023-09: $486.52 per share

- 2023-10: $523.69 per share

- 2023-11: $484.86 per share

- 2023-12: $457.81 per share

- 2024-01: $378.06 per share

- 2024-02: $350.32 per share

- 2024-03: $346.72 per share

- 2024-04: $302.09 per share

- 2024-05: $358.12 per share

- 2024-06: $373.65 per share

- 2024-07: $361.61 per share

- 2024-08: $354.47 per share

- 2024-09: $316.74 per share

- 2024-10: $257.83 per share

- 2024-11: $296.38 per share

- 2024-12: $253.71 per share

- 2025-01: $293.23 per share

- 2025-02: $270.42 per share

- 2025-03: $264.60 per share

- 2025-04: $262.24 per share

- 2025-05: $233.13 per share

- 2025-06: $244.48 per share

- 2025-07: $249.87 per share

- 2025-08: $303.66 per share

- 2025-09: $260.17 per share

- 2025-10: $278.19 per share

- 2025-11: $245.77 per share

- 2025-12: $256.13 per share

- 2026-01: $195.20 per share

- 2026-02: $190.54 per share

- 2026-03: $173.39 per share

- 2026-04: $236.44 per share

- 2026-05: $305.42 per share

- 2026-06: $397.22 per share

- 2026-07: $363.86 per share

- 2026-08: $383.23 per share

- 2026-09: $381.57 per share

- 2026-10: $420.38 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $93.19 per share, central $106.03 per share, high $123.14 per share

- FY2017: low $95.53 per share, central $108.70 per share, high $126.23 per share

- FY2018: low $106.35 per share, central $121.02 per share, high $140.54 per share

- FY2019: low $155.70 per share, central $177.16 per share, high $205.74 per share

- FY2020: low $264.44 per share, central $300.90 per share, high $349.44 per share

- FY2021: low $294.57 per share, central $335.18 per share, high $389.25 per share

- FY2022: low $244.51 per share, central $278.22 per share, high $323.09 per share

- FY2023: low $286.05 per share, central $325.49 per share, high $377.99 per share

- FY2024: low $321.71 per share, central $366.07 per share, high $425.12 per share

- FY2025: low $274.29 per share, central $312.11 per share, high $362.45 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:53.996Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49071/000004907126000009/hum-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.