# Howmet Aerospace (HWM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HWM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:12.916Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $219.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $31.74 per share, central $35.98 per share, high $41.63 per share. Buy at or below the central value $35.98 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:12.916Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.1% at the stated quote. About 4.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.23×

- FY2025: 0.26×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.28×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 27.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 17.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -7.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 17.5%

- FY2018: 18.3%

- FY2019: 15.0%

- FY2020: 27.6%

- FY2021: 22.5%

- FY2022: 26.8%

- FY2023: 30.3%

- FY2024: 40.5%

- FY2025: 48.0%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 46.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.05×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 148.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.28×

- FY2022: 1.15×

- FY2023: 1.07×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.5% vs 40.5%

- Per-share earnings: -0.77 to 2.82 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Market cap gain: $76B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $3.58

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.82

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.68

- Average buyback yield: 3.0%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $13M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $4.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 40.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$2.15

- FY2017: -$0.16

- FY2018: $1.28

- FY2019: $1.02

- FY2020: $0.48

- FY2021: $0.59

- FY2022: $1.11

- FY2023: $1.84

- FY2024: $2.82

- FY2025: $3.71

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.25×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.84×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.1%

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: 2.3%

- FY2019: 0.4%

- FY2020: 1.8%

- FY2021: -1.9%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: -1.3%

- FY2024: -1.4%

- FY2025: -3.4%

## Holders

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 22% since Jul 2026 · "Solid Demand in Commercial Aerospace Drives Howmet: Can It Sustain?" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +10.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:55.394Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 24.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: Howmet Aerospace lifts 2025 profit forecast on strong demand, shares rise ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/howmet-aerospace-lifts-2025-profit-112812655.html))

- 2025-06-11: Howmet Raises EPS Outlook for 2025: Is This Expectation Valid? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/howmet-raises-eps-outlook-2025-134700190.html))

- 2025-09-18: Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Benefited From Demand And Extended Backlogs For New Aircraft ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/howmet-aerospace-hwm-benefited-demand-134428778.html))

- 2026-02-12: Howmet Aerospace first-quarter forecast exceeds estimates, shares higher premarket ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/howmet-aerospace-first-quarter-forecast-123623294.html))

- 2026-08-31: Howmet Aerospace retreats 8% after SpaceX in-house turbine plan ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4638484-howmet-aerospace-retreats-8-after-spacex-in-house-turbine-plan?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-09-03: Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Is Facing New Competition In Gas Turbine Blade Casting ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/howmet-aerospace-hwm-facing-competition-141108207.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +10.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $13B 

- FY2018: $14B 

- FY2019: $7.1B 

- FY2020: $5.3B 

- FY2021: $5.0B 

- FY2022: $5.7B 

- FY2023: $6.6B 

- FY2024: $7.4B 

- FY2025: $8.3B 

- FY2026: $9.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 34.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: 16.9% 

- FY2018: 14.6% 

- FY2019: 22.8% 

- FY2020: 21.7% 

- FY2021: 22.8% 

- FY2022: 23.9% 

- FY2023: 24.3% 

- FY2024: 27.6% 

- FY2025: 30.7% 

- FY2026: 34.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aerospace & defense; annual sales are USD 8.3 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 8252000000; grossProfit 2537000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HWM.US: Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating and structural parts. The Fastening Systems segment produces aerospace fastening systems, as well as commercial transportation, industrial, and other fasteners; and latches, bearings, fluid fittings, and installation tools. The Engineered Structures segment provides titanium ingots and mill products, aluminum and nickel forgings, and machined components and assemblies for aerospace and defense applications; and titanium forgings, extrusions, and forming and machining services for airframe, wing, aero-engine, and landing gear components. The Forged Wheels segment offers forged aluminum wheels and related products for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation markets. The company was formerly known as Arconic Inc. Howmet Aerospace Inc. was founded in 1888 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.3% to 30.7% during 2023–25; it earns 27.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 24.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.17529098441507202],[2018,0.18300437110328005],[2019,0.14975737577639753],[2020,0.27582846003898637],[2021,0.22484271033341788],[2022,0.2675496235681743],[2023,0.3027103048795023],[2024,0.4046235144517827],[2025,0.4797125344994444],[2026,0.4608897374446751]]; median 0.27168904180358033. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

"Product price increases are in excess of inflationary cost pass through to our customers." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); Product price increases are in excess of inflationary cost pass through to our customers.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 11.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 192000000; upkeep 576000000; owner earnings 642000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.29906542056074764.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 586000000; owner earnings 179000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 267000000; owner earnings 223000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 199000000; owner earnings 329000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 193000000; owner earnings 541000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 219000000; owner earnings 818000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 44000000; upkeep 277000000; owner earnings 1155000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0380952380952381.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 170000000; upkeep 283000000; owner earnings 1508000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11273209549071618.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Incremental return on capital 1.489163207341053, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,228000000],[2017,162000000],[2018,119000000],[2019,57000000],[2020,11000000],[2021,19000000],[2022,44000000],[2023,73000000],[2024,109000000],[2025,181000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 755000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HWM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.8750000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); itanium, aluminum, cobalt, and superalloy materials) necessary for the manufacture of Howmet’s products and other manufacturing and operating costs are influenced by market forces, including inflation, supply and demand, and shortages. For example, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, global titanium prices may continue to fluctuate. Our customers’ failure to return titanium revert (reusable scrap) to Howmet can result in an increase of the amount of titanium purchased at inflated costs. Governmental constraints, including export restrictions, sanctions, new or increased import duties or tariffs, and countervailing or anti-dumping duties, also impact the cost of raw materials and other manufacturing and operating costs. The global trade landscape is growing more volatile, including as a result of 2025 and early 2026 executive orders in the U.S. for the imposition of new tariffs, the retaliatory counter measures by other countries and the likelihood and unpredictability of further tariffs and related countermeasures. We continually monitor the global trade environment and any changes in tariffs, trade agreements, restrictions, or sanctions that may impact the Company or our suppliers or customers, and work to mitigate potential impacts. Inflation worldwide and in the United States has resulted in an increase in the costs of materials and labor. While we generally intend to pass along higher raw material and energy costs to our customers through contractual agreements in the form of price increases, there can be a delay between an increase in our costs and our ability to increase the prices of our products. Additionally, we may not be able to increase the prices of our products due to competitive pricing pressure and other factors. If the Company is unable to pass through or offset significant cost increases through customer price increases, productivity improvements, cost reduction or other programs, Howmet’s business, operating results or financial condition could be materially adversely affected. The timing, extent, application, and level of tariffs by various governments and our ability to recover tariffs are subject to changes and uncertainties and given the unpredictability and frequency of these changes, there can be no assurance we will be able to successfully mitigate the impacts of changes in the global trade environment and if the Company is unable to mitigate these impacts, Howmet’s business, operating results or financial condition could be materially adversely affected.

9

Table of Contents

Howmet is unable to predict the future course of industry variables, the strength of the U.S., regional or global economies, or the effects of government actions. Negative economic conditions, such as a major economic downturn or recession, continued inflation, changes in the global trade landscape or disruptions in the financial markets, coul

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 24.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.34450686350990545. Price 219.7; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -2.3666666666666667 → FY2025 3.7142857142857144. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $14.79 per share

- 2016-12: $14.22 per share

- 2017-01: $17.48 per share

- 2017-02: $22.08 per share

- 2017-03: $20.20 per share

- 2017-04: $20.96 per share

- 2017-05: $21.07 per share

- 2017-06: $17.37 per share

- 2017-07: $19.01 per share

- 2017-08: $19.53 per share

- 2017-09: $19.08 per share

- 2017-10: $19.26 per share

- 2017-11: $18.87 per share

- 2017-12: $20.90 per share

- 2018-01: $23.05 per share

- 2018-02: $18.70 per share

- 2018-03: $17.67 per share

- 2018-04: $13.66 per share

- 2018-05: $13.54 per share

- 2018-06: $13.04 per share

- 2018-07: $16.63 per share

- 2018-08: $17.16 per share

- 2018-09: $16.88 per share

- 2018-10: $15.59 per share

- 2018-11: $16.47 per share

- 2018-12: $12.93 per share

- 2019-01: $14.43 per share

- 2019-02: $14.18 per share

- 2019-03: $14.65 per share

- 2019-04: $16.47 per share

- 2019-05: $16.79 per share

- 2019-06: $19.80 per share

- 2019-07: $19.20 per share

- 2019-08: $19.82 per share

- 2019-09: $19.94 per share

- 2019-10: $21.07 per share

- 2019-11: $23.74 per share

- 2019-12: $23.60 per share

- 2020-01: $22.97 per share

- 2020-02: $22.51 per share

- 2020-03: $12.32 per share

- 2020-04: $13.07 per share

- 2020-05: $13.08 per share

- 2020-06: $15.85 per share

- 2020-07: $14.78 per share

- 2020-08: $17.52 per share

- 2020-09: $16.72 per share

- 2020-10: $17.25 per share

- 2020-11: $23.46 per share

- 2020-12: $28.54 per share

- 2021-01: $24.58 per share

- 2021-02: $28.11 per share

- 2021-03: $32.13 per share

- 2021-04: $31.96 per share

- 2021-05: $35.48 per share

- 2021-06: $34.47 per share

- 2021-07: $32.82 per share

- 2021-08: $31.75 per share

- 2021-09: $31.20 per share

- 2021-10: $29.69 per share

- 2021-11: $28.13 per share

- 2021-12: $31.83 per share

- 2022-01: $31.09 per share

- 2022-02: $35.92 per share

- 2022-03: $35.94 per share

- 2022-04: $34.12 per share

- 2022-05: $35.77 per share

- 2022-06: $31.45 per share

- 2022-07: $37.13 per share

- 2022-08: $35.43 per share

- 2022-09: $30.93 per share

- 2022-10: $35.55 per share

- 2022-11: $37.67 per share

- 2022-12: $39.41 per share

- 2023-01: $40.69 per share

- 2023-02: $42.18 per share

- 2023-03: $42.37 per share

- 2023-04: $44.29 per share

- 2023-05: $42.75 per share

- 2023-06: $49.56 per share

- 2023-07: $51.14 per share

- 2023-08: $49.47 per share

- 2023-09: $46.25 per share

- 2023-10: $44.10 per share

- 2023-11: $52.60 per share

- 2023-12: $54.12 per share

- 2024-01: $56.26 per share

- 2024-02: $66.55 per share

- 2024-03: $68.43 per share

- 2024-04: $66.75 per share

- 2024-05: $84.65 per share

- 2024-06: $77.63 per share

- 2024-07: $95.70 per share

- 2024-08: $96.66 per share

- 2024-09: $100.25 per share

- 2024-10: $99.72 per share

- 2024-11: $118.38 per share

- 2024-12: $109.37 per share

- 2025-01: $126.58 per share

- 2025-02: $136.60 per share

- 2025-03: $129.73 per share

- 2025-04: $138.58 per share

- 2025-05: $169.89 per share

- 2025-06: $186.13 per share

- 2025-07: $179.77 per share

- 2025-08: $174.10 per share

- 2025-09: $196.23 per share

- 2025-10: $205.95 per share

- 2025-11: $204.59 per share

- 2025-12: $205.02 per share

- 2026-01: $208.08 per share

- 2026-02: $262.53 per share

- 2026-03: $230.46 per share

- 2026-04: $243.04 per share

- 2026-05: $258.25 per share

- 2026-06: $268.86 per share

- 2026-07: $282.26 per share

- 2026-08: $244.95 per share

- 2026-09: $226.18 per share

- 2026-10: $216.84 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2020: low $6.73 per share, central $7.19 per share, high $7.79 per share

- FY2021: low $6.72 per share, central $7.45 per share, high $8.43 per share

- FY2022: low $8.34 per share, central $9.27 per share, high $10.51 per share

- FY2023: low $12.69 per share, central $14.28 per share, high $16.40 per share

- FY2024: low $19.94 per share, central $22.55 per share, high $26.02 per share

- FY2025: low $28.79 per share, central $32.56 per share, high $37.59 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:55.657Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/hwm-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.