# Hexcel (HXL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/HXL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:13.190Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $89.86 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $25.62 per share, central $29.11 per share, high $33.76 per share. Buy at or below the central value $29.11 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:13.190Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.2% at the stated quote. About 5.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.48×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.18×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 23.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 14.4%

- FY2017: 14.3%

- FY2018: 14.1%

- FY2019: 14.7%

- FY2020: 0.5%

- FY2021: 1.9%

- FY2022: 6.9%

- FY2023: 9.4%

- FY2024: 8.2%

- FY2025: 7.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.53×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $749M

- Net income, five-year total: $490M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -41.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 24.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 7.84×

- FY2022: 1.40×

- FY2023: 1.16×

- FY2024: 1.28×

- FY2025: 1.42×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.3% vs 8.2%

- Per-share earnings: 2.65 to 1.37 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: $893M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.9%

- Per-share value change: -$1.28

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.65

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.37

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.45

- Average buyback yield: 3.6%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $231M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.65

- FY2017: $3.09

- FY2018: $3.11

- FY2019: $3.57

- FY2020: $0.38

- FY2021: $0.19

- FY2022: $1.49

- FY2023: $1.24

- FY2024: $1.59

- FY2025: $1.37

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.19×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.11×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.19×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.3%

- FY2017: -5.2%

- FY2018: -5.1%

- FY2019: -5.9%

- FY2020: -8.0%

- FY2021: -4.8%

- FY2022: -1.6%

- FY2023: -5.2%

- FY2024: -5.8%

- FY2025: -4.5%

## Holders

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.3% a year for ten years · sales +4.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:55.490Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-22: Hexcel Q1 Earnings and Revenues Miss, 2025 Guidance Lowered ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hexcel-q1-earnings-revenues-miss-144400175.html))

- 2025-05-10: HXL Q1 Earnings Call: Guidance Cut as Commercial Aerospace Demand Softens ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hxl-q1-earnings-call-guidance-212056858.html))

- 2025-07-26: Hexcel outlines $1B cash generation target through 2029 as A350 and defense demand strengthen ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4472523-hexcel-outlines-1b-cash-generation-target-through-2029-as-a350-and-defense-demand-strengthen?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-10-23: Hexcel's Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Sales Beat, '25 EPS View Lowered ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hexcels-q3-earnings-miss-estimates-135000499.html))

- 2026-01-29: HXL Q4 Deep Dive: Commercial Aerospace Recovery and Cost Discipline Drive Positive Momentum ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hxl-q4-deep-dive-commercial-213056408.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717605/000119312526046377/hxl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2017: $2.0B 

- FY2018: $2.2B 

- FY2019: $2.4B 

- FY2020: $1.5B 

- FY2021: $1.3B 

- FY2022: $1.6B 

- FY2023: $1.8B 

- FY2024: $1.9B 

- FY2025: $1.9B 

- FY2026: $2.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 23%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717605/000119312526046377/hxl-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 28.2% 

- FY2017: 28.0% 

- FY2018: 26.5% 

- FY2019: 27.2% 

- FY2020: 16.0% 

- FY2021: 18.9% 

- FY2022: 22.6% 

- FY2023: 24.2% 

- FY2024: 24.7% 

- FY2025: 23.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aerospace & defense; annual sales are USD 1.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717605/000119312526046377/hxl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 1893900000; grossProfit 434800000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HXL.US: Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets advanced lightweight composites technology. It operates through two segments, Composite Materials and Engineered Products. The company offers carbon fiber, reinforcements, prepregs and other fiber-reinforced matrix materials, honeycomb, resins, engineered core and composite structures for use in commercial aerospace, defense and space, and industrial applications. The Composite Materials segment manufactures and markets carbon fibers, fabrics, multi-axials, specialty reinforcements, prepregs and other fiber-reinforced matrix materials, structural adhesives, honeycomb, molding compounds, tooling materials, polyurethane systems, and laminates that are used in military aircraft, transportation, recreational products, and other industrial applications. The Engineered Products segment manufactures and markets aircraft structures and finished aircraft components, including wing to body fairings, wing panels, flight deck panels, door liners, rotorcraft blades, spars, and tip caps; and aircraft structural sub-components and semi-finished components used in rotorcraft blades, engine nacelles, and aircraft surfaces, such as flaps, wings, elevators, and fairings; and RF interference control products for military and aerospace applications. This segment also provides interference control materials, structural composites, and services; dielectric absorber foams; magnetic absorbers; and thermoplastics for commercial and defense applications. The company sells its products directly through its marketing managers, product managers, and sales personnel, as well as through independent distributors in the Americas, Europe, the Asia Pacific, India, and Africa. Hexcel Corporation was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23% to 24.7% during 2023–25; it earns 8.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 24.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717605/000119312526046377/hxl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 23%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1440014101841661],[2017,0.14263489217808795],[2018,0.14105629564566763],[2019,0.14665814839676644],[2020,0.005064102564102564],[2021,0.01904359580939507],[2022,0.06909126299842659],[2023,0.09437465308356861],[2024,0.08171959107046345],[2025,0.07019310259732248]]; median 0.08804712207701604. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 454.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2016: growth capex 99018329.13769904; upkeep 228881670.86230096; owner earnings 114518329.13769904. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8646504876842684.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 278100000; owner earnings 110400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2018: growth capex 61100000; upkeep 123000000; owner earnings 276600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22089660159074476.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2019: growth capex 62500000; upkeep 141600000; owner earnings 306600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20384866275277233.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 50600000; owner earnings 121900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 27900000; owner earnings 126200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 76300000; owner earnings 176200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 108200000; owner earnings 122300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 87000000; owner earnings 169100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717605/000119312526046377/hxl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 76700000; owner earnings 155000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,39800000],[2017,42600000],[2018,48400000],[2019,54200000],[2020,14200000],[2021,33700000],[2022,33700000],[2023,42200000],[2024,49300000],[2025,53900000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717605/000119312526046377/hxl-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 454300000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); HXL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.958 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 31.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.20774301939626272. Price 89.86; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.12253834701794779 → FY2025 1.9375. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $45.49 per share

- 2016-11: $51.72 per share

- 2016-12: $51.44 per share

- 2017-01: $51.35 per share

- 2017-02: $54.98 per share

- 2017-03: $54.55 per share

- 2017-04: $51.75 per share

- 2017-05: $51.43 per share

- 2017-06: $52.79 per share

- 2017-07: $51.17 per share

- 2017-08: $53.77 per share

- 2017-09: $57.42 per share

- 2017-10: $60.69 per share

- 2017-11: $62.00 per share

- 2017-12: $61.85 per share

- 2018-01: $68.35 per share

- 2018-02: $67.28 per share

- 2018-03: $64.59 per share

- 2018-04: $66.47 per share

- 2018-05: $70.83 per share

- 2018-06: $66.38 per share

- 2018-07: $69.01 per share

- 2018-08: $66.12 per share

- 2018-09: $67.05 per share

- 2018-10: $58.52 per share

- 2018-11: $61.67 per share

- 2018-12: $57.34 per share

- 2019-01: $67.71 per share

- 2019-02: $72.14 per share

- 2019-03: $69.16 per share

- 2019-04: $70.71 per share

- 2019-05: $72.79 per share

- 2019-06: $80.88 per share

- 2019-07: $81.76 per share

- 2019-08: $84.15 per share

- 2019-09: $82.13 per share

- 2019-10: $74.62 per share

- 2019-11: $79.63 per share

- 2019-12: $73.31 per share

- 2020-01: $74.22 per share

- 2020-02: $64.63 per share

- 2020-03: $37.19 per share

- 2020-04: $34.59 per share

- 2020-05: $36.19 per share

- 2020-06: $45.22 per share

- 2020-07: $37.30 per share

- 2020-08: $39.39 per share

- 2020-09: $33.55 per share

- 2020-10: $33.48 per share

- 2020-11: $49.52 per share

- 2020-12: $48.49 per share

- 2021-01: $43.66 per share

- 2021-02: $53.76 per share

- 2021-03: $56.00 per share

- 2021-04: $56.41 per share

- 2021-05: $59.46 per share

- 2021-06: $62.40 per share

- 2021-07: $54.42 per share

- 2021-08: $56.71 per share

- 2021-09: $59.39 per share

- 2021-10: $56.74 per share

- 2021-11: $51.38 per share

- 2021-12: $51.80 per share

- 2022-01: $52.17 per share

- 2022-02: $57.90 per share

- 2022-03: $59.47 per share

- 2022-04: $54.36 per share

- 2022-05: $57.45 per share

- 2022-06: $52.31 per share

- 2022-07: $60.51 per share

- 2022-08: $58.67 per share

- 2022-09: $51.72 per share

- 2022-10: $55.70 per share

- 2022-11: $59.95 per share

- 2022-12: $58.85 per share

- 2023-01: $70.58 per share

- 2023-02: $72.95 per share

- 2023-03: $68.25 per share

- 2023-04: $72.08 per share

- 2023-05: $68.99 per share

- 2023-06: $76.02 per share

- 2023-07: $70.68 per share

- 2023-08: $73.30 per share

- 2023-09: $65.14 per share

- 2023-10: $61.92 per share

- 2023-11: $69.31 per share

- 2023-12: $73.75 per share

- 2024-01: $66.39 per share

- 2024-02: $74.46 per share

- 2024-03: $72.85 per share

- 2024-04: $64.21 per share

- 2024-05: $68.87 per share

- 2024-06: $62.45 per share

- 2024-07: $66.21 per share

- 2024-08: $63.29 per share

- 2024-09: $61.83 per share

- 2024-10: $58.69 per share

- 2024-11: $63.39 per share

- 2024-12: $62.70 per share

- 2025-01: $65.20 per share

- 2025-02: $63.37 per share

- 2025-03: $54.76 per share

- 2025-04: $48.47 per share

- 2025-05: $52.89 per share

- 2025-06: $56.49 per share

- 2025-07: $59.91 per share

- 2025-08: $63.15 per share

- 2025-09: $62.70 per share

- 2025-10: $71.40 per share

- 2025-11: $76.23 per share

- 2025-12: $73.90 per share

- 2026-01: $82.81 per share

- 2026-02: $92.69 per share

- 2026-03: $80.93 per share

- 2026-04: $93.87 per share

- 2026-05: $89.79 per share

- 2026-06: $100.06 per share

- 2026-07: $102.95 per share

- 2026-08: $92.67 per share

- 2026-09: $83.92 per share

- 2026-10: $89.86 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $15.02 per share, central $19.44 per share, high $22.73 per share

- FY2017: low $15.53 per share, central $20.24 per share, high $23.63 per share

- FY2018: low $17.62 per share, central $23.15 per share, high $27.09 per share

- FY2019: low $21.35 per share, central $30.16 per share, high $35.39 per share

- FY2020: low $16.73 per share, central $18.92 per share, high $21.83 per share

- FY2021: low $17.50 per share, central $19.75 per share, high $22.74 per share

- FY2022: low $23.60 per share, central $26.73 per share, high $30.89 per share

- FY2023: low $24.02 per share, central $27.03 per share, high $31.03 per share

- FY2024: low $23.32 per share, central $26.39 per share, high $30.48 per share

- FY2025: low $23.41 per share, central $26.58 per share, high $30.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/717605/000119312526046377/hxl-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.