# Intercontinental Exchange (ICE.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ICE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:14.803Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $158.41 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $86.28 per share, central $97.76 per share, high $113.04 per share. Buy at or below the central value $97.76 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:14.803Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.2% at the stated quote. About 7.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.06×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.41×

- FY2018: 0.41×

- FY2019: 0.41×

- FY2020: 0.37×

- FY2021: 0.38×

- FY2022: 0.38×

- FY2023: 0.37×

- FY2024: 0.37×

- FY2025: 0.39×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.44×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 56.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 61.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 23.1%

- FY2018: 19.1%

- FY2019: 18.9%

- FY2020: 16.0%

- FY2021: 16.3%

- FY2022: 25.1%

- FY2023: 18.4%

- FY2024: 20.3%

- FY2025: 25.3%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 23.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.32×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $18B

- Net income, five-year total: $14B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -79.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -671.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 288.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.14×

- FY2022: 1.38×

- FY2023: 1.43×

- FY2024: 1.41×

- FY2025: 1.36×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.1% vs 20.3%

- Per-share earnings: 2.39 to 4.78 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Market cap gain: $58B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $15B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 9.1%

- Per-share value change: $2.39

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.39

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.78

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.47

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $27B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $24B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.39

- FY2017: $4.25

- FY2018: $3.43

- FY2019: $3.42

- FY2020: $3.76

- FY2021: $7.18

- FY2022: $2.58

- FY2023: $4.19

- FY2024: $4.78

- FY2025: $5.75

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 5.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.41×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.59×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.9%

- FY2017: 0.6%

- FY2018: -0.6%

- FY2019: -0.8%

- FY2020: -0.6%

- FY2021: 0.5%

- FY2022: -1.1%

- FY2023: -0.9%

- FY2024: -1.3%

- FY2025: -1.0%

## Holders

- [Nicolai Tangen](https://gigainvestors.com/AKO): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Von Mueffling](https://gigainvestors.com/cc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.1% a year for ten years · "Interest Rate Business Growth: 20% increase in transaction revenues." (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales -1.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:55.851Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: NYSE-parent ICE beats first-quarter profit estimates on robust trading volume ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/nyse-parent-ices-first-quarter-113916667.html))

- 2025-07-31: NYSE-parent ICE's profit beats estimates as volatility fuels record revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyse-parent-ices-second-quarter-114039713.html))

- 2026-07-30: ICE Q2 Earnings Beat on Data Growth and Mortgage Strength ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ice-q2-earnings-beat-data-173200358.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -1.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571949/000157194926000004/ice-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2017: $5.8B 

- FY2018: $6.3B 

- FY2019: $6.5B 

- FY2020: $8.2B 

- FY2021: $9.2B 

- FY2022: $9.6B 

- FY2023: $9.9B 

- FY2024: $12B 

- FY2025: $13B 

- FY2026: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 79%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571949/000157194926000004/ice-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2017: 56.4% 

- FY2018: 56.6% 

- FY2019: 56.4% 

- FY2020: 52.1% 

- FY2021: 54.7% 

- FY2022: 54.0% 

- FY2023: 57.1% 

- FY2024: 55.5% 

- FY2025: 61.9% 

- FY2026: 79.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in financial data & stock exchanges; annual sales are USD 12.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571949/000157194926000004/ice-20251231.htm#000157194926000004 (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: revenue 12640000000; grossProfit 7821000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ICE.US: Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange and equities, and corporate and exchange-traded funds, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides fixed income pricing, reference data, indices, analytics, and execution services, as well as global CDS clearing and multi-asset class data delivery technology. The Mortgage Technology segment offers a technology platform that provides customers comprehensive and digital workflow tools to address inefficiencies and mitigate risks that exist in the U.S. residential mortgage market life cycle from application through closing, servicing, and the secondary market. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55.5% to 61.9% during 2023–25; it earns 19.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 57.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 55.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571949/000157194926000004/ice-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 61.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.23083640597710073],[2018,0.1911289578140866],[2019,0.18901546490167376],[2020,0.15962183074508132],[2021,0.1625827532157983],[2022,0.25070513816070816],[2023,0.18362814040064498],[2024,0.2030850213439284],[2025,0.25318861597864345],[2026,0.23808828391444942]]; median 0.1971069895790075. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.4 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 365000000; owner earnings 1675000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 357000000; owner earnings 2704000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 280000000; owner earnings 2294000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 305000000; owner earnings 2290000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 410000000; owner earnings 2430000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 452000000; owner earnings 4615000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 482000000; owner earnings 1995000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 190000000; owner earnings 3393000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 406000000; owner earnings 3885000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571949/000157194926000004/ice-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 373000000; owner earnings 4491000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Dividend observations: [[2016,409000000],[2017,476000000],[2018,555000000],[2019,621000000],[2020,669000000],[2021,747000000],[2022,853000000],[2023,955000000],[2024,1039000000],[2025,1105000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571949/000157194926000004/ice-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: cash repurchases 1389000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ICE.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.8130000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08894724834131751. Price 158.41; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.452593917710197 → FY2025 7.810434782608696. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $54.08 per share

- 2016-11: $55.40 per share

- 2016-12: $56.42 per share

- 2017-01: $58.36 per share

- 2017-02: $57.13 per share

- 2017-03: $59.87 per share

- 2017-04: $60.20 per share

- 2017-05: $60.19 per share

- 2017-06: $65.92 per share

- 2017-07: $66.71 per share

- 2017-08: $64.67 per share

- 2017-09: $68.70 per share

- 2017-10: $66.10 per share

- 2017-11: $71.45 per share

- 2017-12: $70.56 per share

- 2018-01: $73.84 per share

- 2018-02: $73.08 per share

- 2018-03: $72.52 per share

- 2018-04: $72.46 per share

- 2018-05: $70.89 per share

- 2018-06: $73.55 per share

- 2018-07: $73.91 per share

- 2018-08: $76.23 per share

- 2018-09: $74.89 per share

- 2018-10: $77.04 per share

- 2018-11: $81.72 per share

- 2018-12: $75.33 per share

- 2019-01: $76.76 per share

- 2019-02: $77.15 per share

- 2019-03: $76.14 per share

- 2019-04: $81.35 per share

- 2019-05: $82.21 per share

- 2019-06: $85.94 per share

- 2019-07: $87.86 per share

- 2019-08: $93.48 per share

- 2019-09: $92.27 per share

- 2019-10: $94.32 per share

- 2019-11: $94.17 per share

- 2019-12: $92.55 per share

- 2020-01: $99.74 per share

- 2020-02: $89.22 per share

- 2020-03: $80.75 per share

- 2020-04: $89.45 per share

- 2020-05: $97.25 per share

- 2020-06: $91.60 per share

- 2020-07: $96.78 per share

- 2020-08: $106.23 per share

- 2020-09: $100.05 per share

- 2020-10: $94.40 per share

- 2020-11: $105.51 per share

- 2020-12: $115.29 per share

- 2021-01: $110.35 per share

- 2021-02: $110.31 per share

- 2021-03: $111.68 per share

- 2021-04: $117.71 per share

- 2021-05: $112.88 per share

- 2021-06: $118.70 per share

- 2021-07: $119.83 per share

- 2021-08: $119.53 per share

- 2021-09: $114.82 per share

- 2021-10: $138.46 per share

- 2021-11: $130.72 per share

- 2021-12: $136.77 per share

- 2022-01: $126.66 per share

- 2022-02: $128.12 per share

- 2022-03: $132.12 per share

- 2022-04: $115.81 per share

- 2022-05: $102.39 per share

- 2022-06: $94.04 per share

- 2022-07: $101.99 per share

- 2022-08: $100.85 per share

- 2022-09: $90.35 per share

- 2022-10: $95.57 per share

- 2022-11: $108.31 per share

- 2022-12: $102.59 per share

- 2023-01: $107.55 per share

- 2023-02: $101.80 per share

- 2023-03: $104.29 per share

- 2023-04: $108.93 per share

- 2023-05: $105.95 per share

- 2023-06: $113.08 per share

- 2023-07: $114.80 per share

- 2023-08: $117.99 per share

- 2023-09: $110.02 per share

- 2023-10: $107.44 per share

- 2023-11: $113.84 per share

- 2023-12: $128.43 per share

- 2024-01: $127.33 per share

- 2024-02: $138.42 per share

- 2024-03: $137.43 per share

- 2024-04: $128.76 per share

- 2024-05: $133.90 per share

- 2024-06: $136.89 per share

- 2024-07: $151.56 per share

- 2024-08: $161.55 per share

- 2024-09: $160.64 per share

- 2024-10: $155.87 per share

- 2024-11: $160.96 per share

- 2024-12: $149.01 per share

- 2025-01: $159.83 per share

- 2025-02: $173.23 per share

- 2025-03: $172.50 per share

- 2025-04: $167.97 per share

- 2025-05: $179.80 per share

- 2025-06: $183.47 per share

- 2025-07: $184.83 per share

- 2025-08: $176.60 per share

- 2025-09: $168.48 per share

- 2025-10: $146.29 per share

- 2025-11: $157.30 per share

- 2025-12: $161.96 per share

- 2026-01: $173.78 per share

- 2026-02: $164.13 per share

- 2026-03: $157.28 per share

- 2026-04: $158.09 per share

- 2026-05: $147.85 per share

- 2026-06: $123.11 per share

- 2026-07: $152.48 per share

- 2026-08: $160.70 per share

- 2026-09: $152.03 per share

- 2026-10: $156.42 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $38.53 per share, central $54.83 per share, high $64.31 per share

- FY2017: low $38.22 per share, central $54.29 per share, high $63.66 per share

- FY2018: low $44.18 per share, central $62.68 per share, high $73.44 per share

- FY2019: low $56.36 per share, central $79.97 per share, high $93.72 per share

- FY2020: low $71.39 per share, central $101.66 per share, high $119.28 per share

- FY2021: low $81.38 per share, central $115.94 per share, high $136.06 per share

- FY2022: low $94.95 per share, central $128.92 per share, high $148.98 per share

- FY2023: low $83.29 per share, central $118.28 per share, high $138.65 per share

- FY2024: low $75.69 per share, central $85.85 per share, high $99.38 per share

- FY2025: low $88.17 per share, central $99.52 per share, high $114.63 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:34:57.663Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1571949/000157194926000004/ice-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.