# Intermediate Capital Group (ICG.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ICG.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:42.927Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 1,786.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 2,035.94 per share, central GBX 2,248.21 per share, high GBX 2,530.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 2,248.21 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:42.927Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.6% at the stated quote. About 12.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.63×

- FY2018: 0.62×

- FY2019: 0.86×

- FY2020: 0.44×

- FY2021: 0.75×

- FY2022: 0.63×

- FY2023: 0.42×

- FY2024: 0.61×

- FY2025: 0.54×

- FY2026: 0.75×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 97.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 95.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.2%

- FY2018: 4.3%

- FY2019: 3.3%

- FY2020: 4.8%

- FY2021: 7.0%

- FY2022: 8.1%

- FY2023: 3.0%

- FY2024: 7.1%

- FY2025: 5.6%

- FY2026: 6.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 2.3B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 2.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -21.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -117.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -3.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 1.02×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.02×

- FY2026: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.3% vs 6.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.77 to 1.62 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: GBP 2.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 1.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 9.8%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.85

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 1.62

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.07

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 11M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 3.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.77

- FY2018: GBP 0.89

- FY2019: GBP 0.63

- FY2020: GBP 0.37

- FY2021: GBP 1.58

- FY2022: GBP 1.82

- FY2023: GBP 0.97

- FY2024: GBP 1.62

- FY2025: GBP 1.54

- FY2026: GBP 1.64

### accounting: fail

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 5.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -0.06×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.3%

- FY2018: 2.5%

- FY2019: 1.4%

- FY2020: -2.7%

- FY2021: 4.6%

- FY2022: 3.2%

- FY2023: -0.1%

- FY2024: 2.4%

- FY2025: 3.4%

- FY2026: 5.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 25% since Jan 2025 · sales -15.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.939Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 2.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -15.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300OGASR5WRKJ8R68/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300OGASR5WRKJ8R68-2026-03-31/reports/549300OGASR5WRKJ8R68-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: GBP 441M 

- FY2018: GBP 349M 

- FY2019: GBP 213M 

- FY2020: GBP 256M 

- FY2021: GBP 672M 

- FY2022: GBP 990M 

- FY2023: GBP 599M 

- FY2024: GBP 982M 

- FY2025: GBP 990M 

- FY2026: GBP 834M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 95.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300OGASR5WRKJ8R68/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300OGASR5WRKJ8R68-2026-03-31/reports/549300OGASR5WRKJ8R68-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2020: 96.0% 

- FY2021: 97.7% 

- FY2022: 94.5% 

- FY2023: 96.7% 

- FY2024: 98.2% 

- FY2025: 96.1% 

- FY2026: 95.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are GBP 834 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: revenue 834000000; grossProfit 799600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 95.9% to 98.2% during 2024–26; it earns 5.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2024-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 98.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2025-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 96.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 95.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.05209398830211225],[2018,0.04335784167214617],[2019,0.03266849452538394],[2020,0.04773412070889819],[2021,0.0701610733125656],[2022,0.08097642597754738],[2023,0.02954589120843061],[2024,0.07105343076810736],[2025,0.05648543421925663],[2026,0.06555401817822183]]; median 0.05428971126068444. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 78 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2017-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4100000; owner earnings 219700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2018-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 4200000; owner earnings 252500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2019-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 5200000; owner earnings 180800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2020-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 10100000; owner earnings 109100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2021-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 10800000; owner earnings 461900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2022-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 7800000; owner earnings 538500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2023-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 11200000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 287600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2024-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 9500000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 481900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2025-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 6600000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 462400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 700000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 494900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Dividend observations: [[2017,270900000],[2018,80700000],[2019,88300000],[2020,142800000],[2021,150900000],[2022,165700000],[2023,236400000],[2024,223400000],[2025,228900000],[2026,242300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ICG.LSE.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: cash repurchases 78000000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ICG.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.936 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 2.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.05429747390586209. Price 1786; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.47448781315511473 → FY2026 1.6956412142971546. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 605.50 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 678.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 700.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 692.50 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 710.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 708.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 781.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 882.50 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 832.50 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 907.50 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 888.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 936.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 973.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,065.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,146.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,158.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,058.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 982.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,086.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,146.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,102.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,062.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 1,049.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,090.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 952.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,015.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 935.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,016.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 1,048.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 1,065.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 1,182.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 1,314.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 1,381.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 1,390.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 1,336.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 1,455.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 1,486.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 1,531.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 1,610.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,742.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 1,592.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 896.50 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 1,128.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 1,270.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 1,289.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 1,347.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,367.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 1,193.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 1,171.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 1,636.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 1,726.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 1,700.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 1,731.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 1,842.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 2,186.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 2,103.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,124.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 2,170.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 2,198.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 2,045.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 2,191.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 2,090.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 2,194.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 1,896.50 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 1,714.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 1,785.50 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 1,547.50 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 1,575.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,309.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 1,521.50 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 1,367.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 982.80 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 1,062.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 1,193.50 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 1,148.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 1,388.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 1,402.00 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 1,217.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 1,301.50 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 1,392.00 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 1,377.50 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 1,405.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 1,352.50 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 1,383.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 1,304.50 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 1,564.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 1,680.50 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 1,786.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 1,925.50 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 2,054.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 2,100.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 2,310.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 2,182.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 2,196.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 2,126.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 2,228.00 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 2,062.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 2,118.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 2,066.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 2,370.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 2,282.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 1,954.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 1,876.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 2,006.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 1,928.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 2,178.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 2,182.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 2,226.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 1,931.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 2,076.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 2,054.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 1,815.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 1,679.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 1,520.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 1,815.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 1,867.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 1,689.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 1,888.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 2,022.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 1,849.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 1,786.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 848.19 per share, central GBX 965.13 per share, high GBX 1,120.81 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 670.94 per share, central GBX 763.45 per share, high GBX 886.60 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 460.98 per share, central GBX 524.54 per share, high GBX 609.15 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 801.66 per share, central GBX 867.62 per share, high GBX 955.43 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 2,261.56 per share, central GBX 3,188.84 per share, high GBX 3,728.79 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 3,457.43 per share, central GBX 4,828.94 per share, high GBX 5,627.58 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 1,481.97 per share, central GBX 1,742.00 per share, high GBX 1,998.27 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 2,575.86 per share, central GBX 3,537.28 per share, high GBX 4,097.12 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 2,377.85 per share, central GBX 3,205.75 per share, high GBX 3,725.26 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 2,027.41 per share, central GBX 2,238.80 per share, high GBX 2,520.21 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:27.869Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300OGASR5WRKJ8R68/2026-03-31/ESEF/GB/0/549300OGASR5WRKJ8R68-2026-03-31/reports/549300OGASR5WRKJ8R68-2026-03-31-T01.xhtml); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Intermediate Capital Group

ICG · LSE

FTSE 100 · STOXX Europe 600

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 1,786.00
Buy up to: GBX 2,248.21
Expected / yr: 12.6% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 20.8% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 62.4%
Worst year: 42.3%
Latest · 2026: 75.3%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 5.4% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 3.3% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 5.4%
Worst year: 3.0%
Latest · 2026: 6.6%

Each $1 of profit left $1.02 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.02×
Annual median: 1.02×
Latest · 2026: 1.03×

Per-share value rose from 0.77 to 1.62, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 1.25
Worst year: GBP 0.37
Latest · 2026: GBP 1.64

Profits lacked the required cash backing.

Sloan accruals

10y median: 2.5%
Worst year: 5.1%
Latest · 2026: 5.1%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 62.5%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.64 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 605.50; 2016-11 · Price GBX 678.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 700.00; 2017-01 · Price GBX 692.50 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-02 · Price GBX 710.00 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-03 · Price GBX 708.00 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-04 · Price GBX 781.00 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-05 · Price GBX 882.50 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-06 · Price GBX 832.50 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-07 · Price GBX 907.50 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-08 · Price GBX 888.00 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-09 · Price GBX 936.00 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-10 · Price GBX 973.00 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-11 · Price GBX 1065.00 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2017-12 · Price GBX 1146.00 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2018-01 · Price GBX 1158.00 · Value 965.13 · Buy at or below 965.13; 2018-02 · Price GBX 1058.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-03 · Price GBX 982.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-04 · Price GBX 1086.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-05 · Price GBX 1146.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-06 · Price GBX 1102.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-07 · Price GBX 1062.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-08 · Price GBX 1049.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-09 · Price GBX 1090.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-10 · Price GBX 952.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-11 · Price GBX 1015.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2018-12 · Price GBX 935.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2019-01 · Price GBX 1016.00 · Value 763.45 · Buy at or below 763.45; 2019-02 · Price GBX 1048.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-03 · Price GBX 1065.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-04 · Price GBX 1182.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-05 · Price GBX 1314.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-06 · Price GBX 1381.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-07 · Price GBX 1390.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-08 · Price GBX 1336.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-09 · Price GBX 1455.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-10 · Price GBX 1486.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-11 · Price GBX 1531.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2019-12 · Price GBX 1610.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2020-01 · Price GBX 1742.00 · Value 524.54 · Buy at or below 524.54; 2020-02 · Price GBX 1592.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-03 · Price GBX 896.50 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-04 · Price GBX 1128.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-05 · Price GBX 1270.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-06 · Price GBX 1289.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-07 · Price GBX 1347.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-08 · Price GBX 1367.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-09 · Price GBX 1193.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-10 · Price GBX 1171.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-11 · Price GBX 1636.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2020-12 · Price GBX 1726.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2021-01 · Price GBX 1700.00 · Value 867.62 · Buy at or below 867.62; 2021-02 · Price GBX 1731.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-03 · Price GBX 1842.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-04 · Price GBX 2186.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-05 · Price GBX 2103.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-06 · Price GBX 2124.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-07 · Price GBX 2170.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-08 · Price GBX 2198.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-09 · Price GBX 2045.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-10 · Price GBX 2191.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-11 · Price GBX 2090.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2021-12 · Price GBX 2194.00 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2022-01 · Price GBX 1896.50 · Value 3188.84 · Buy at or below 3188.84; 2022-02 · Price GBX 1714.00 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-03 · Price GBX 1785.50 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-04 · Price GBX 1547.50 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-05 · Price GBX 1575.00 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-06 · Price GBX 1309.00 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-07 · Price GBX 1521.50 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-08 · Price GBX 1367.00 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-09 · Price GBX 982.80 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-10 · Price GBX 1062.00 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-11 · Price GBX 1193.50 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2022-12 · Price GBX 1148.00 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2023-01 · Price GBX 1388.00 · Value 4828.94 · Buy at or below 4828.94; 2023-02 · Price GBX 1402.00 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-03 · Price GBX 1217.00 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-04 · Price GBX 1301.50 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-05 · Price GBX 1392.00 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-06 · Price GBX 1377.50 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-07 · Price GBX 1405.00 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-08 · Price GBX 1352.50 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-09 · Price GBX 1383.00 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-10 · Price GBX 1304.50 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-11 · Price GBX 1564.00 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2023-12 · Price GBX 1680.50 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2024-01 · Price GBX 1786.00 · Value 1742.00 · Buy at or below 1742.00; 2024-02 · Price GBX 1925.50 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-03 · Price GBX 2054.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-04 · Price GBX 2100.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-05 · Price GBX 2310.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-06 · Price GBX 2182.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-07 · Price GBX 2196.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-08 · Price GBX 2126.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-09 · Price GBX 2228.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-10 · Price GBX 2062.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-11 · Price GBX 2118.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2024-12 · Price GBX 2066.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2025-01 · Price GBX 2370.00 · Value 3537.28 · Buy at or below 3537.28; 2025-02 · Price GBX 2282.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-03 · Price GBX 1954.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-04 · Price GBX 1876.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-05 · Price GBX 2006.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-06 · Price GBX 1928.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-07 · Price GBX 2178.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-08 · Price GBX 2182.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-09 · Price GBX 2226.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-10 · Price GBX 1931.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-11 · Price GBX 2076.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2025-12 · Price GBX 2054.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2026-01 · Price GBX 1815.00 · Value 3205.75 · Buy at or below 3205.75; 2026-02 · Price GBX 1679.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80; 2026-03 · Price GBX 1520.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80; 2026-04 · Price GBX 1815.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80; 2026-05 · Price GBX 1867.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80; 2026-06 · Price GBX 1689.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80; 2026-07 · Price GBX 1888.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80; 2026-08 · Price GBX 2022.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80; 2026-09 · Price GBX 1849.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80; 2026-10 · Price GBX 1786.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80; 2026-10 · Price GBX 1786.00 · Value 2238.80 · Buy at or below 2238.80

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 2,035.94 – GBX 2,530.80
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 2,248.21
Discount to value	1 − 1786.00 / 2248.21 = 20.6%
Return / year	About 12.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 140.86/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 496.32/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 834M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 495M

Owner earnings

Operating margin75.3%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -5.1B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares292M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·