# Iluka Resources (ILU.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ILU.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 5.06 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 5.10 per share, central AUD 5.79 per share, high AUD 6.71 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 5.79 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.1% at the stated quote. About 11.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 0.73×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.02×

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.36×

- FY2019: 0.26×

- FY2020: 0.22×

- FY2021: 0.36×

- FY2022: 0.42×

- FY2023: 0.32×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: -0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 40.9pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 40.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 49.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.8%

- FY2017: 8.6%

- FY2018: 28.5%

- FY2019: 36.8%

- FY2020: 11.4%

- FY2021: 25.9%

- FY2022: 33.7%

- FY2023: 15.5%

- FY2024: 8.1%

- FY2025: -2.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.32×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 397M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 1.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -9.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 32.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 79.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.30×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.73×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 3.21×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.6% vs 8.1%

- Per-share earnings: -0.41 to 0.54 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Market cap gain: AUD 958M

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 922M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.95

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD -0.41

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.54

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.70

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 193M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 3.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: AUD -0.52

- FY2017: AUD -0.41

- FY2018: AUD 0.71

- FY2019: AUD -0.66

- FY2020: AUD 5.68

- FY2021: AUD 0.87

- FY2022: AUD 1.38

- FY2023: AUD 0.79

- FY2024: AUD 0.54

- FY2025: AUD -0.67

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.35×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -14.4%

- FY2017: -30.1%

- FY2018: -14.6%

- FY2019: -29.4%

- FY2020: 91.0%

- FY2021: -0.1%

- FY2022: -0.5%

- FY2023: 7.6%

- FY2024: 2.9%

- FY2025: -6.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 55% since May 2023 · sales -13.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.292Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -13.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: AUD 726M 

- FY2017: AUD 1.0B 

- FY2018: AUD 1.3B 

- FY2019: AUD 1.2B 

- FY2020: AUD 990M 

- FY2021: AUD 1.3B 

- FY2022: AUD 1.6B 

- FY2023: AUD 1.3B 

- FY2024: AUD 1.2B 

- FY2025: AUD 1.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 8.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 42.6% 

- FY2017: 45.4% 

- FY2018: 48.3% 

- FY2019: 63.5% 

- FY2020: 64.2% 

- FY2021: 69.9% 

- FY2022: 60.1% 

- FY2023: 49.9% 

- FY2024: 40.9% 

- FY2025: 8.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are AUD 1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2025: revenue 1015400000; grossProfit 82700000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.1% to 49.9% during 2023–25; it earns 13.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 49.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 8.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.008394332939787485],[2017,0.08587921348314606],[2018,0.2852704217793983],[2019,0.3679405428694528],[2020,0.11391699604743083],[2021,0.25934089480769723],[2022,0.337387302792409],[2023,0.1547305166795712],[2024,0.08055223219698888],[2025,-0.021620894766816428]]; median 0.13432375636350102. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back AUD 500000 of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2018: growth capex 218000000; upkeep 93500000; owner earnings 303900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7173412306679829.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 71200000; owner earnings 2520840000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 53600000; owner earnings 476220000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 152600000; owner earnings 586500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 281400000; owner earnings 251260000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 433900000; owner earnings 8960000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,92100000],[2017,25100000],[2018,108300000],[2019,99900000],[2020,32600000],[2021,55400000],[2022,146800000],[2023,97000000],[2024,33600000],[2025,25200000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 500000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ILU.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.0210000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:42:14.322Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.02429095641753881. Price 5.06; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.29251391571055324 → FY2025 -2.155882019551995. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 2.80 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 2.97 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 3.52 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 3.65 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 3.29 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 3.69 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 4.07 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 4.42 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 4.21 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 4.37 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 4.59 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 4.60 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 4.55 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 4.50 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 4.93 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 4.90 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 5.03 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 5.12 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 5.69 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 5.43 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 5.42 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 5.55 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 4.50 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 4.82 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 3.91 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 3.91 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 3.69 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 4.22 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 4.44 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 4.36 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 4.19 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 4.72 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 5.22 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 4.66 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 3.46 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 3.87 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 4.56 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 4.61 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 4.51 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 4.71 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 4.04 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 3.38 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 3.72 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 3.98 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 4.14 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 4.39 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 4.91 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 4.37 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 4.91 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 5.09 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 6.19 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 6.15 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 7.08 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 6.88 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 7.38 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 7.36 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 8.73 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 9.47 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 9.54 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 8.66 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 8.97 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 8.22 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 9.63 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 9.86 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 10.20 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 10.77 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 10.82 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 10.48 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 9.00 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 9.58 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 10.54 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 9.06 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 8.65 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 10.09 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 9.53 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 10.80 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 10.42 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 10.62 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 10.97 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 11.24 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 11.11 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 10.22 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 8.53 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 7.68 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 7.24 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 6.91 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 6.60 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 7.25 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 6.85 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 7.21 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 7.68 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 7.15 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 6.55 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 6.06 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 6.16 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 6.97 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 5.87 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 5.58 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 5.05 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 4.42 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 4.15 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 3.88 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 4.15 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 3.67 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 3.80 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 5.15 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 6.33 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 6.33 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 6.92 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 6.45 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 5.79 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 5.36 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 6.75 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 6.60 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 8.08 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 7.90 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 7.07 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 6.05 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 6.86 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 6.03 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 5.32 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2016: low AUD 2.96 per share, central AUD 3.34 per share, high AUD 3.84 per share

- FY2017: low AUD 3.04 per share, central AUD 3.45 per share, high AUD 3.99 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 3.76 per share, central AUD 4.28 per share, high AUD 4.96 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 8.64 per share, central AUD 9.74 per share, high AUD 11.21 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 16.17 per share, central AUD 18.24 per share, high AUD 20.99 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 12.53 per share, central AUD 14.16 per share, high AUD 16.31 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 10.99 per share, central AUD 12.47 per share, high AUD 14.44 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 5.09 per share, central AUD 5.78 per share, high AUD 6.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Iluka Resources

ILU · AU

S&P/ASX 200

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: AUD 5.06
Buy up to: AUD 5.79
Expected / yr: 11.1% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Sales fell in 6 years (limit 5), and 4 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and margins varied 72.9% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 25.3%
Worst year: -8.5%
Latest · 2025: -8.5%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 13.4% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year -0.8% (minimum 10%), and gross margin fell 40.9 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 13.4%
Worst year: -2.2%
Latest · 2025: -2.2%

Each $1 of profit left $0.32 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80), and new investment earned -9.9% (minimum 12%), and working capital rose 32.6% of sales (limit 10%) to 79.6% (waived at zero or below).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.32×
Annual median: 1.00×
Latest · 2025: 3.21×

Per-share value rose from -0.41 to 0.54, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: AUD 0.62
Worst year: AUD -0.67
Latest · 2025: AUD -0.67

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -6% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.3%
Worst year: 91.0%
Latest · 2025: -6.0%

Profit record · fail 4 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 22.1%, three-year average owner earnings per share -0.52 AUD. 4 loss years in the last 10; at most 2 allowed. Three-year average owner earnings per share is not positive.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price AUD 2.80 · Value 3.34 · Buy at or below 3.34; 2016-11 · Price AUD 2.97 · Value 3.34 · Buy at or below 3.34; 2016-12 · Price AUD 3.52 · Value 3.34 · Buy at or below 3.34; 2017-01 · Price AUD 3.65 · Value 3.34 · Buy at or below 3.34; 2017-02 · Price AUD 3.29 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-03 · Price AUD 3.69 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-04 · Price AUD 4.07 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-05 · Price AUD 4.42 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-06 · Price AUD 4.21 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-07 · Price AUD 4.37 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-08 · Price AUD 4.59 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-09 · Price AUD 4.60 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-10 · Price AUD 4.55 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-11 · Price AUD 4.50 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2017-12 · Price AUD 4.93 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2018-01 · Price AUD 4.90 · Value 3.45 · Buy at or below 3.45; 2018-02 · Price AUD 5.03 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-03 · Price AUD 5.12 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-04 · Price AUD 5.69 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-05 · Price AUD 5.43 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-06 · Price AUD 5.42 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-07 · Price AUD 5.55 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-08 · Price AUD 4.50 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-09 · Price AUD 4.82 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-10 · Price AUD 3.91 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-11 · Price AUD 3.91 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2018-12 · Price AUD 3.69 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2019-01 · Price AUD 4.22 · Value 4.28 · Buy at or below 4.28; 2019-02 · Price AUD 4.44; 2019-03 · Price AUD 4.36; 2019-04 · Price AUD 4.19; 2019-05 · Price AUD 4.72; 2019-06 · Price AUD 5.22; 2019-07 · Price AUD 4.66; 2019-08 · Price AUD 3.46; 2019-09 · Price AUD 3.87; 2019-10 · Price AUD 4.56; 2019-11 · Price AUD 4.61; 2019-12 · Price AUD 4.51; 2020-01 · Price AUD 4.71; 2020-02 · Price AUD 4.04; 2020-03 · Price AUD 3.38; 2020-04 · Price AUD 3.72; 2020-05 · Price AUD 3.98; 2020-06 · Price AUD 4.14; 2020-07 · Price AUD 4.39; 2020-08 · Price AUD 4.91; 2020-09 · Price AUD 4.37; 2020-10 · Price AUD 4.91; 2020-11 · Price AUD 5.09; 2020-12 · Price AUD 6.19; 2021-01 · Price AUD 6.15 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-02 · Price AUD 7.08 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-03 · Price AUD 6.88 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-04 · Price AUD 7.38 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-05 · Price AUD 7.36 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-06 · Price AUD 8.73 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-07 · Price AUD 9.47 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-08 · Price AUD 9.54 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-09 · Price AUD 8.66 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-10 · Price AUD 8.97 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-11 · Price AUD 8.22 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2021-12 · Price AUD 9.63 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2022-01 · Price AUD 9.86 · Value 9.74 · Buy at or below 9.74; 2022-02 · Price AUD 10.20 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-03 · Price AUD 10.77 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-04 · Price AUD 10.82 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-05 · Price AUD 10.48 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-06 · Price AUD 9.00 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-07 · Price AUD 9.58 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-08 · Price AUD 10.54 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-09 · Price AUD 9.06 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-10 · Price AUD 8.65 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-11 · Price AUD 10.09 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2022-12 · Price AUD 9.53 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2023-01 · Price AUD 10.80 · Value 18.24 · Buy at or below 18.24; 2023-02 · Price AUD 10.42 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-03 · Price AUD 10.62 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-04 · Price AUD 10.97 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-05 · Price AUD 11.24 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-06 · Price AUD 11.11 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-07 · Price AUD 10.22 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-08 · Price AUD 8.53 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-09 · Price AUD 7.68 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-10 · Price AUD 7.24 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-11 · Price AUD 6.91 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2023-12 · Price AUD 6.60 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2024-01 · Price AUD 7.25 · Value 14.16 · Buy at or below 14.16; 2024-02 · Price AUD 6.85 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-03 · Price AUD 7.21 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-04 · Price AUD 7.68 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-05 · Price AUD 7.15 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-06 · Price AUD 6.55 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-07 · Price AUD 6.06 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-08 · Price AUD 6.16 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-09 · Price AUD 6.97 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-10 · Price AUD 5.87 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-11 · Price AUD 5.58 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2024-12 · Price AUD 5.05 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2025-01 · Price AUD 4.42 · Value 12.47 · Buy at or below 12.47; 2025-02 · Price AUD 4.15 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-03 · Price AUD 3.88 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-04 · Price AUD 4.15 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-05 · Price AUD 3.67 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-06 · Price AUD 3.80 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-07 · Price AUD 5.15 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-08 · Price AUD 6.33 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-09 · Price AUD 6.33 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-10 · Price AUD 6.92 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-11 · Price AUD 6.45 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2025-12 · Price AUD 5.79 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2026-01 · Price AUD 5.36 · Value 5.78 · Buy at or below 5.78; 2026-02 · Price AUD 6.75 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79; 2026-03 · Price AUD 6.60 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79; 2026-04 · Price AUD 8.08 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79; 2026-05 · Price AUD 7.90 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79; 2026-06 · Price AUD 7.07 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79; 2026-07 · Price AUD 6.05 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79; 2026-08 · Price AUD 6.86 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79; 2026-09 · Price AUD 6.03 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79; 2026-10 · Price AUD 5.32 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79; 2026-10 · Price AUD 5.06 · Value 5.79 · Buy at or below 5.79

AUD per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	AUD 5.10 – AUD 6.71
Buy at or below	Central value AUD 5.79
Discount to value	1 − 5.06 / 5.79 = 12.6%
Return / year	About 11.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash AUD 0.46/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash AUD 0.07/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueAUD 1.0B

Revenue

Owner earningsAUD -926M

Owner earnings

Operating margin-8.5%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtAUD -1.1B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares430M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025