# Incyte (INCY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/INCY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:19.834Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $113.27 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $90.22 per share, central $119.54 per share, high $136.61 per share. Buy at or below the central value $119.54 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:19.834Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.5% at the stated quote. About 10.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.16×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.19×

- FY2020: -0.10×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.26×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.32×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 35.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -29.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 94.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 92.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 27.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -58.4%

- FY2018: 33.3%

- FY2019: 95.7%

- FY2020: -29.7%

- FY2021: 44.7%

- FY2022: 37.8%

- FY2023: 33.1%

- FY2024: 5.6%

- FY2025: 68.1%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 87.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 84.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.94×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.08×

- FY2024: 1.09×

- FY2025: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 33.3% vs 33.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.03 to 2.65 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Market cap gain: $666M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 71.8%

- Per-share value change: $2.61

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.03

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.65

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.18

- Average buyback yield: 2.3%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $426M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 33.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 33.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.54

- FY2017: -$1.53

- FY2018: $0.51

- FY2019: $2.05

- FY2020: -$1.36

- FY2021: $4.27

- FY2022: $1.52

- FY2023: $2.65

- FY2024: $0.15

- FY2025: $6.41

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -1.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 17.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.10×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -12.2%

- FY2017: -9.6%

- FY2018: -8.6%

- FY2019: -7.7%

- FY2020: -4.8%

- FY2021: 4.0%

- FY2022: -10.8%

- FY2023: 1.5%

- FY2024: -5.6%

- FY2025: -1.8%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Harry Burn](https://gigainvestors.com/SSHFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.7% a year for ten years · "Incyte Sales Growth Drives Share Price Gains" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +13.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:56.872Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-13: INCY Q1 Earnings Call: New Product Launches and Pipeline Progress Drive Outperformance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incy-q1-earnings-call-product-104412693.html))

- 2025-06-17: Incyte Stock Rises on QIAGEN Deal to Advance Blood Cancer Diagnostics ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incyte-stock-rises-qiagen-deal-160800070.html))

- 2025-08-13: INCY Q2 Deep Dive: Product Launches and Pipeline Progress Underpin Revenue Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incy-q2-deep-dive-product-041502786.html))

- 2025-10-08: Incyte May Face Long-Term Revenue Erosion on Generic Competition, Oppenheimer Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/incyte-may-face-long-term-150439309.html))

- 2026-06-27: Incyte (INCY) Wins EU Backing For Opzelura As Pipeline Data Builds Across Four Drugs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/incyte-incy-wins-eu-backing-060649444.html))

- 2026-07-28: Incyte Q2 Revenue Jumps 38%, Raises FY26 Sales Guidance ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/incyte-q2-revenue-jumps-38-raises-fy26-sales-guidance))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +13.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000087916926000010/incy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2017: $1.5B 

- FY2018: $1.9B 

- FY2019: $2.2B 

- FY2020: $2.7B 

- FY2021: $3.0B 

- FY2022: $3.4B 

- FY2023: $3.7B 

- FY2024: $4.2B 

- FY2025: $5.1B 

- FY2026: $5.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 92.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000087916926000010/incy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-10.

- FY2017: 94.8% 

- FY2018: 95.0% 

- FY2019: 94.7% 

- FY2020: 95.1% 

- FY2021: 94.9% 

- FY2022: 93.9% 

- FY2023: 93.1% 

- FY2024: 92.6% 

- FY2025: 92.8% 

- FY2026: 92.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in biotechnology; annual sales are USD 5.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000087916926000010/incy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: revenue 5141242000; grossProfit 4769142000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); INCY.US: Incyte Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics in the United States, Europe, Canada, and Japan. The company offers JAKAFI for the treatment of myelofibrosis (MF), polycythemia vera, and steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease; ICLUSIG, a kinase inhibitor to treat chronic myeloid leukemia and Philadelphia-chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia; MONJUVI/ MINJUVI for the treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and Follicular Lymphoma; NIKTIMVO for the treatment of chronic graft-versus-host disease. It also provides INCA033989 for the treatment of essential thrombocythemia and MF;  INCA035784 for the treatment of anti-mutant calreticulin and myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs); INCB160058 for the treatment of MPNs; PEMAZYRE, a selective fibroblast growth factor receptor kinase inhibitor for the treatment of unresectable biliary tract cancer, metastatic cholangiocarcinoma, and myeloid/lymphoid neoplasms; ZYNYZ to treat adults with metastatic or recurrent locally advanced Merkel cell carcinoma. The company's clinical stage products include INCB123667 for ovarian cancer; INCB161734 for solid tumors; INCA33890 for cancers; Ruxolitinib cream for atopic dermatitis, hidradenitis suppurativa (HS), and prurigo nodularis; Povorcitinib for HS, nonsegmental vitiligo, prurigo nodularis, and asthma; and INCB00928 for the treatment of fibrodysplasia ossificans progressive. It has collaboration and license agreement with Novartis, Lilly, and Syndax. The company sells its products to specialty and retail pharmacies, hospital pharmacies, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Incyte Genomics Inc and changed its name to Incyte Corporation in March 2003. Incyte Corporation was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 92.6% to 93.1% during 2023–25; it earns 35.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 93.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 92.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000087916926000010/incy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 92.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.5837292041093894],[2018,0.33316433001260454],[2019,0.9574141094194142],[2020,-0.29680169955929436],[2021,0.4468033011959971],[2022,0.37812201947261503],[2023,0.33143439285429827],[2024,0.05618301499098902],[2025,0.681414696358044],[2026,0.8785605849483774]]; median 0.35564317474260976. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 94% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000087916926000010/incy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.949438211653546],[2022,0.9390214264567472],[2023,0.9310026466258023]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 19.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2016: growth capex 36792185.60689819; upkeep 83484814.39310181; owner earnings 79162185.60689819. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4647697044343874.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2018: growth capex 18514000; upkeep 54969000; owner earnings 109493000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16908843487711545.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2019: growth capex 23531000; upkeep 54533000; owner earnings 446906000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05265313063597266.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2021: growth capex 63882978.2601026; upkeep 117123021.7398974; owner earnings 889301978.2601026. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07183496699859823.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2022: growth capex 9978000; upkeep 67855000; owner earnings 340660000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.029290201373803792.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 32486000; owner earnings 647773000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 86263000; owner earnings 35600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000087916926000010/incy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 58867000; owner earnings 1321069000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,16751000],[2020,22759000],[2021,29940000],[2022,26301000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000087916926000010/incy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); FY2025: cash repurchases 19100000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); INCY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.8450000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We depend heavily on our lead product, JAKAFI (ruxolitinib)" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000087916926000010/incy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-10); We depend heavily on our lead product, JAKAFI (ruxolitinib)

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 47.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06800127042312953. Price 113.27; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.13566859937427256 → FY2025 6.58230692575984. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $86.97 per share

- 2016-11: $102.29 per share

- 2016-12: $100.27 per share

- 2017-01: $121.21 per share

- 2017-02: $133.10 per share

- 2017-03: $133.67 per share

- 2017-04: $124.28 per share

- 2017-05: $129.33 per share

- 2017-06: $125.91 per share

- 2017-07: $133.29 per share

- 2017-08: $137.41 per share

- 2017-09: $116.74 per share

- 2017-10: $113.25 per share

- 2017-11: $98.99 per share

- 2017-12: $94.71 per share

- 2018-01: $90.29 per share

- 2018-02: $85.16 per share

- 2018-03: $83.33 per share

- 2018-04: $61.94 per share

- 2018-05: $68.27 per share

- 2018-06: $67.00 per share

- 2018-07: $66.54 per share

- 2018-08: $73.91 per share

- 2018-09: $69.08 per share

- 2018-10: $64.82 per share

- 2018-11: $64.25 per share

- 2018-12: $63.59 per share

- 2019-01: $80.59 per share

- 2019-02: $86.23 per share

- 2019-03: $86.01 per share

- 2019-04: $76.80 per share

- 2019-05: $78.63 per share

- 2019-06: $84.96 per share

- 2019-07: $84.92 per share

- 2019-08: $81.82 per share

- 2019-09: $74.23 per share

- 2019-10: $83.92 per share

- 2019-11: $94.16 per share

- 2019-12: $87.32 per share

- 2020-01: $73.07 per share

- 2020-02: $75.41 per share

- 2020-03: $73.23 per share

- 2020-04: $97.66 per share

- 2020-05: $101.91 per share

- 2020-06: $103.97 per share

- 2020-07: $98.76 per share

- 2020-08: $96.35 per share

- 2020-09: $89.74 per share

- 2020-10: $86.64 per share

- 2020-11: $84.54 per share

- 2020-12: $86.98 per share

- 2021-01: $89.75 per share

- 2021-02: $78.66 per share

- 2021-03: $81.27 per share

- 2021-04: $85.38 per share

- 2021-05: $83.78 per share

- 2021-06: $84.13 per share

- 2021-07: $77.35 per share

- 2021-08: $76.49 per share

- 2021-09: $68.78 per share

- 2021-10: $66.98 per share

- 2021-11: $67.72 per share

- 2021-12: $73.40 per share

- 2022-01: $74.33 per share

- 2022-02: $68.30 per share

- 2022-03: $79.42 per share

- 2022-04: $74.96 per share

- 2022-05: $75.89 per share

- 2022-06: $75.97 per share

- 2022-07: $77.68 per share

- 2022-08: $70.43 per share

- 2022-09: $66.64 per share

- 2022-10: $74.34 per share

- 2022-11: $79.67 per share

- 2022-12: $80.32 per share

- 2023-01: $85.14 per share

- 2023-02: $76.98 per share

- 2023-03: $72.27 per share

- 2023-04: $74.41 per share

- 2023-05: $61.55 per share

- 2023-06: $62.25 per share

- 2023-07: $63.72 per share

- 2023-08: $64.53 per share

- 2023-09: $57.77 per share

- 2023-10: $53.93 per share

- 2023-11: $54.34 per share

- 2023-12: $62.79 per share

- 2024-01: $58.77 per share

- 2024-02: $58.36 per share

- 2024-03: $56.97 per share

- 2024-04: $52.05 per share

- 2024-05: $57.79 per share

- 2024-06: $60.62 per share

- 2024-07: $65.07 per share

- 2024-08: $65.66 per share

- 2024-09: $66.10 per share

- 2024-10: $74.12 per share

- 2024-11: $74.59 per share

- 2024-12: $69.07 per share

- 2025-01: $74.16 per share

- 2025-02: $73.50 per share

- 2025-03: $60.55 per share

- 2025-04: $62.66 per share

- 2025-05: $65.06 per share

- 2025-06: $68.10 per share

- 2025-07: $74.89 per share

- 2025-08: $84.61 per share

- 2025-09: $84.81 per share

- 2025-10: $93.48 per share

- 2025-11: $104.46 per share

- 2025-12: $98.77 per share

- 2026-01: $100.07 per share

- 2026-02: $101.27 per share

- 2026-03: $94.12 per share

- 2026-04: $95.27 per share

- 2026-05: $96.74 per share

- 2026-06: $113.36 per share

- 2026-07: $119.52 per share

- 2026-08: $123.22 per share

- 2026-09: $121.35 per share

- 2026-10: $113.27 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $10.50 per share, central $12.21 per share, high $13.21 per share

- FY2019: low $17.38 per share, central $20.74 per share, high $22.70 per share

- FY2020: low $15.79 per share, central $16.86 per share, high $18.29 per share

- FY2021: low $20.94 per share, central $25.50 per share, high $28.15 per share

- FY2022: low $34.84 per share, central $43.70 per share, high $48.86 per share

- FY2023: low $54.83 per share, central $71.54 per share, high $81.26 per share

- FY2024: low $34.43 per share, central $41.14 per share, high $46.41 per share

- FY2025: low $78.37 per share, central $104.53 per share, high $119.76 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:03.200Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/879169/000087916926000010/incy-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.