# Intel (INTC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/INTC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:21.904Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $95.37 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.22×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.22×

- FY2017: 0.29×

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.31×

- FY2020: 0.30×

- FY2021: 0.25×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.00×

- FY2024: -0.22×

- FY2025: -0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 21.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 18.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -1.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 21.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 55.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 34.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 24.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 17.0%

- FY2017: 20.0%

- FY2018: 32.3%

- FY2019: 28.7%

- FY2020: 29.6%

- FY2021: 22.8%

- FY2022: 2.7%

- FY2023: 0.1%

- FY2024: -9.0%

- FY2025: -1.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -3.37×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$36B

- Net income, five-year total: $11B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -14.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.88×

- FY2022: -0.50×

- FY2023: -8.56×

- FY2024: 1.67×

- FY2025: 12.01×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.0% vs -1.4%

- Per-share earnings: 2.12 to -0.06 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- Market cap gain: $13B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $8.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$2.18

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.06

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.49

- Average buyback yield: 3.6%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $23B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $93B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -1.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.12

- FY2017: $1.99

- FY2018: $4.48

- FY2019: $4.71

- FY2020: $4.94

- FY2021: $4.86

- FY2022: $1.94

- FY2023: $0.40

- FY2024: -$4.38

- FY2025: -$0.06

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.11×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 25.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.23×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.1%

- FY2017: -10.1%

- FY2018: -6.5%

- FY2019: -8.9%

- FY2020: -9.5%

- FY2021: -6.0%

- FY2022: -4.1%

- FY2023: -5.1%

- FY2024: -13.8%

- FY2025: -4.7%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [William Browne](https://gigainvestors.com/TB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Chase Coleman](https://gigainvestors.com/TGM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 32% since Jun 2026 · "Intel (INTC) Sees AI CPU Demand Squeeze As CEO Flags 50% Fulfillment" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales -0.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:57.351Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-08-19: Intel scores $2B investment from Japan's SoftBank, shares jump after-hours ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4486774-intel-scores-2b-investment-from-japans-softbank-shares-jump-after-hours?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-09-18: Intel Stock Surges on Nvidia Plan to Invest $5 Billion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3efd0c4c-abb5-35a4-b5f2-d5d054738c08/intel-stock-surges-on-nvidia.html))

- 2026-01-22: Intel shares slip over 13% as weak guidance overshadows Q4 earnings beat ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-shares-slip-4-weak-213829898.html))

- 2026-04-24: Intel shares surge as AI drives first-quarter revenue jump ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/intel-shares-surge-ai-drives-062123617.html))

- 2026-06-08: Intel Stock Jumps As Google Reportedly Signs On As Foundry Customer ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/db44a8f0-6de2-37e9-801e-bf5d6b766460/intel-stock-jumps-as-google.html))

- 2026-09-22: Intel (INTC) Sees AI CPU Demand Squeeze As CEO Flags 50% Fulfillment ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/intel-intc-sees-ai-cpu-051505418.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -0.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000011/intc-20251227.htm; observed 2026-01-23.

- FY2016: $59B 

- FY2017: $63B 

- FY2018: $71B 

- FY2019: $72B 

- FY2020: $78B 

- FY2021: $79B 

- FY2022: $63B 

- FY2023: $54B 

- FY2024: $53B 

- FY2025: $53B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 34.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000011/intc-20251227.htm; observed 2026-01-23.

- FY2016: 60.9% 

- FY2017: 62.3% 

- FY2018: 61.7% 

- FY2019: 58.6% 

- FY2020: 56.0% 

- FY2021: 55.4% 

- FY2022: 42.6% 

- FY2023: 40.0% 

- FY2024: 32.7% 

- FY2025: 34.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductors; annual sales are USD 52.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000011/intc-20251227.htm (filed 2026-01-23); FY2025: revenue 52853000000; grossProfit 18375000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); INTC.US: Intel Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and services computing and related end products and services in the United States, Ireland, Israel, and internationally. It operates through three segments: CCG, DCAI, and Intel Foundry. The company offers client computing group products, including client and commercial CPUs, discrete client GPUs, edge computing, and connectivity products; data center and AI products, such as server CPUs, discrete GPUs, and networking products; and semiconductors comprising wafer fabrication, substrates, and other related products and services. It also provides driving assistance and self-driving solutions; and develops and manufactures multi-beam mask writing tools. The company sells its products through sales organizations, distributors, resellers, retailers, and OEM partners. It serves original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, cloud service providers, and other manufacturers and service providers. Intel Corporation has a strategic collaboration with Infosys Limited to develop a multi-layer AI fabric that unifies infrastructure, models, data, applications, and workflows into a composable and agent-ready ecosystem. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 32.7% to 40% during 2023–25; it earns 18.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 40%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 32.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000011/intc-20251227.htm (filed 2026-01-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 34.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.17022694375321354],[2017,0.19994854820175964],[2018,0.3229939104688546],[2019,0.28661640836808094],[2020,0.29640088498516987],[2021,0.2280068747133972],[2022,0.026660574561654007],[2023,0.0009095977230715062],[2024,-0.08998322376762967],[2025,-0.014457795012959875]]; median 0.1850877459774866. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); FY2016: growth capex 2338868977.16395; upkeep 7286131022.83605; owner earnings 3323868977.16395. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7036585958209343.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); FY2017: growth capex 2045174394.17066; upkeep 9732825605.82934; owner earnings 45174394.17066002. Growth capex / owner earnings = 45.272868219203815.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); FY2018: growth capex 5055673006.758245; upkeep 10125326993.241755; owner earnings 11127673006.758245. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4543333546634367.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); FY2019: growth capex 739283398.9727592; upkeep 15473716601.02724; owner earnings 17186283398.97276. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04301589714370397.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); FY2020: growth capex 112000000; upkeep 14341000000; owner earnings 20899000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.005359108091296234.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); FY2021: growth capex 844990299.3069153; upkeep 19484009700.693085; owner earnings 17427990299.306915. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04848466660786007.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,4925000000],[2017,5072000000],[2018,5541000000],[2019,5576000000],[2020,5568000000],[2021,5644000000],[2022,5997000000],[2023,3088000000],[2024,1599000000],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 14% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); INTC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 13.988 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"If we are unable to secure a significant external foundry customer for Intel 14A" (SEC filing, Jan 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000011/intc-20251227.htm (filed 2026-01-23); If we are unable to secure a significant external foundry customer for Intel 14A

### What the price says

The price is 8.2 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-23); Closing price 95.37 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 11.667328918322296; price multiple 8.174107430041815. FY2025 cash earnings/share -0.7079470198675497. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $34.87 per share

- 2016-11: $34.70 per share

- 2016-12: $36.27 per share

- 2017-01: $36.82 per share

- 2017-02: $36.20 per share

- 2017-03: $36.07 per share

- 2017-04: $36.15 per share

- 2017-05: $36.11 per share

- 2017-06: $33.74 per share

- 2017-07: $35.47 per share

- 2017-08: $35.07 per share

- 2017-09: $38.08 per share

- 2017-10: $45.49 per share

- 2017-11: $44.84 per share

- 2017-12: $46.16 per share

- 2018-01: $48.14 per share

- 2018-02: $49.29 per share

- 2018-03: $52.08 per share

- 2018-04: $51.62 per share

- 2018-05: $55.20 per share

- 2018-06: $49.71 per share

- 2018-07: $48.10 per share

- 2018-08: $48.43 per share

- 2018-09: $47.29 per share

- 2018-10: $46.88 per share

- 2018-11: $49.31 per share

- 2018-12: $46.93 per share

- 2019-01: $47.12 per share

- 2019-02: $52.96 per share

- 2019-03: $53.70 per share

- 2019-04: $51.04 per share

- 2019-05: $44.04 per share

- 2019-06: $47.87 per share

- 2019-07: $50.55 per share

- 2019-08: $47.41 per share

- 2019-09: $51.53 per share

- 2019-10: $56.53 per share

- 2019-11: $58.05 per share

- 2019-12: $59.85 per share

- 2020-01: $63.93 per share

- 2020-02: $55.52 per share

- 2020-03: $54.12 per share

- 2020-04: $59.98 per share

- 2020-05: $62.93 per share

- 2020-06: $59.83 per share

- 2020-07: $47.73 per share

- 2020-08: $50.95 per share

- 2020-09: $51.78 per share

- 2020-10: $44.28 per share

- 2020-11: $48.35 per share

- 2020-12: $49.82 per share

- 2021-01: $55.51 per share

- 2021-02: $60.78 per share

- 2021-03: $64.00 per share

- 2021-04: $57.53 per share

- 2021-05: $57.12 per share

- 2021-06: $56.14 per share

- 2021-07: $53.72 per share

- 2021-08: $54.06 per share

- 2021-09: $53.28 per share

- 2021-10: $49.00 per share

- 2021-11: $49.20 per share

- 2021-12: $51.50 per share

- 2022-01: $48.82 per share

- 2022-02: $47.70 per share

- 2022-03: $49.56 per share

- 2022-04: $43.59 per share

- 2022-05: $44.42 per share

- 2022-06: $37.41 per share

- 2022-07: $36.31 per share

- 2022-08: $31.92 per share

- 2022-09: $25.77 per share

- 2022-10: $28.43 per share

- 2022-11: $30.07 per share

- 2022-12: $26.43 per share

- 2023-01: $28.26 per share

- 2023-02: $24.93 per share

- 2023-03: $32.67 per share

- 2023-04: $31.06 per share

- 2023-05: $31.44 per share

- 2023-06: $33.44 per share

- 2023-07: $35.77 per share

- 2023-08: $35.14 per share

- 2023-09: $35.55 per share

- 2023-10: $36.50 per share

- 2023-11: $44.70 per share

- 2023-12: $50.25 per share

- 2024-01: $43.08 per share

- 2024-02: $43.05 per share

- 2024-03: $44.17 per share

- 2024-04: $30.47 per share

- 2024-05: $30.85 per share

- 2024-06: $30.97 per share

- 2024-07: $30.74 per share

- 2024-08: $22.04 per share

- 2024-09: $23.46 per share

- 2024-10: $21.52 per share

- 2024-11: $24.05 per share

- 2024-12: $20.05 per share

- 2025-01: $19.43 per share

- 2025-02: $23.73 per share

- 2025-03: $22.71 per share

- 2025-04: $20.10 per share

- 2025-05: $19.55 per share

- 2025-06: $22.40 per share

- 2025-07: $19.80 per share

- 2025-08: $24.35 per share

- 2025-09: $33.55 per share

- 2025-10: $39.99 per share

- 2025-11: $40.56 per share

- 2025-12: $36.90 per share

- 2026-01: $46.47 per share

- 2026-02: $45.61 per share

- 2026-03: $44.13 per share

- 2026-04: $94.48 per share

- 2026-05: $114.68 per share

- 2026-06: $139.63 per share

- 2026-07: $90.20 per share

- 2026-08: $89.51 per share

- 2026-09: $120.23 per share

- 2026-10: $102.81 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $10.72 per share, central $11.74 per share, high $13.11 per share

- FY2017: low $10.58 per share, central $11.67 per share, high $13.13 per share

- FY2018: low $13.74 per share, central $17.36 per share, high $19.94 per share

- FY2019: low $18.48 per share, central $24.05 per share, high $27.73 per share

- FY2020: low $42.28 per share, central $54.98 per share, high $63.49 per share

- FY2021: low $57.90 per share, central $71.28 per share, high $82.13 per share

- FY2022: low $43.43 per share, central $48.52 per share, high $55.28 per share

- FY2023: low $36.72 per share, central $41.00 per share, high $46.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086326000011/intc-20251227.htm); period 2025-12-27, filed 2026-01-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.