# International Paper (IP.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/IP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:23.297Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $34.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $25.70 per share, central $29.18 per share, high $33.82 per share. Buy at or below the central value $29.18 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:23.297Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.9% at the stated quote. About 8.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.92×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: -0.11×

- LTM to Jun 2026: -0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -11.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 27.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 12.1%

- FY2018: 11.5%

- FY2019: 5.5%

- FY2020: 7.6%

- FY2021: 11.6%

- FY2022: 16.7%

- FY2023: 9.8%

- FY2024: 4.8%

- FY2025: -11.6%

- LTM to Jun 2026: -12.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 5.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $599M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.32×

- FY2022: 1.07×

- FY2023: 2.08×

- FY2024: 1.69×

- FY2025: 0.71×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.5% vs 4.8%

- Per-share earnings: 2.11 to 0.87 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.0%

- Market cap gain: -$455M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $67M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -10.6%

- Per-share value change: -$1.25

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.87

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.64

- Average buyback yield: 2.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $6.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.06

- FY2017: $4.86

- FY2018: $4.60

- FY2019: $3.07

- FY2020: $0.58

- FY2021: $4.46

- FY2022: $4.10

- FY2023: $0.87

- FY2024: $1.57

- FY2025: -$6.95

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.63×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.8%

- FY2017: 1.1%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -7.1%

- FY2020: -8.9%

- FY2021: -1.1%

- FY2022: -2.8%

- FY2023: -6.6%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -13.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 42% since Nov 2024 · "IP Misses Q1 Earnings Estimates, Lowers 2026 EBITDA View on Higher Costs" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales -2.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:57.714Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-30: International Paper misses results estimates on weak demand amid economic uncertainty ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/international-paper-misses-results-estimates-111352696.html))

- 2025-10-30: International Paper (NYSE:IP) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q3 Earnings, Stock Drops ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/international-paper-nyse-ip-reports-120443771.html))

- 2025-11-14: International Paper To Shut Two U.S. Packaging Plants As Demand Slows ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/international-paper-shut-two-us-packaging-plants-demand-slows))

- 2026-02-28: International Paper Resets With Regional Split Plant Closure And Cost Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/international-paper-resets-regional-split-210958383.html))

- 2026-04-30: IP Misses Q1 Earnings Estimates, Lowers 2026 EBITDA View on Higher Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ip-misses-q1-earnings-estimates-180000927.html))

- 2026-07-30: IP Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Decline Y/Y on High Maintenance Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ip-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-171800162.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -2.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000055/ip-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: $22B 

- FY2018: $23B 

- FY2019: $18B 

- FY2020: $18B 

- FY2021: $19B 

- FY2022: $21B 

- FY2023: $19B 

- FY2024: $19B 

- FY2025: $25B 

- FY2026: $24B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 27.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000055/ip-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2017: 31.9% 

- FY2018: 33.3% 

- FY2019: 30.8% 

- FY2020: 23.8% 

- FY2021: 28.6% 

- FY2022: 28.4% 

- FY2023: 20.4% 

- FY2024: 28.2% 

- FY2025: 29.5% 

- FY2026: 27.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaging & containers; annual sales are USD 24.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000055/ip-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 24896000000; grossProfit 7351000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); IP.US: International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. The company offers linerboard, medium, whitetop, and saturating kraft; and converts containerboard into corrugated boxes, bulk bins, shipping containers and specialty packaging through its converting facilities. Its products support customers in various industries, such as food and beverage, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, personal care pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20.4% to 29.5% during 2023–25; it earns 8.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 28.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000055/ip-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 29.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.1214881531139655],[2018,0.11495151912002922],[2019,0.0554002541296061],[2020,0.0762724613455913],[2021,0.11642391049841914],[2022,0.16682518546699637],[2023,0.09834151347516874],[2024,0.04848237930332043],[2025,-0.11627955530038102],[2026,-0.12080763501958404]]; median 0.08730698741038002. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 65 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1348000000; owner earnings 680000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 48000000; upkeep 1343000000; owner earnings 2144000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.022388059701492536.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 244000000; upkeep 1328000000; owner earnings 2012000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12127236580516898.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1276000000; owner earnings 1255000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 751000000; owner earnings 611000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 549000000; owner earnings 2310000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 931000000; owner earnings 1613000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1141000000; owner earnings 629000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 921000000; owner earnings 941000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,733000000],[2017,769000000],[2018,789000000],[2019,796000000],[2020,806000000],[2021,910000000],[2022,673000000],[2023,642000000],[2024,643000000],[2025,977000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000055/ip-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 65000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); IP.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.242 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Results of legal proceedings could have a material effect on our consolidated financial results." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000055/ip-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); Results of legal proceedings could have a material effect on our consolidated financial results.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.9% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.028177716845520284. Price 34.1; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.6773476563062866 → FY2025 -4.925845362863358. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $45.03 per share

- 2016-11: $48.72 per share

- 2016-12: $53.06 per share

- 2017-01: $56.60 per share

- 2017-02: $52.70 per share

- 2017-03: $50.78 per share

- 2017-04: $53.97 per share

- 2017-05: $52.88 per share

- 2017-06: $56.61 per share

- 2017-07: $54.98 per share

- 2017-08: $53.87 per share

- 2017-09: $56.82 per share

- 2017-10: $57.27 per share

- 2017-11: $56.61 per share

- 2017-12: $57.94 per share

- 2018-01: $62.86 per share

- 2018-02: $59.59 per share

- 2018-03: $53.43 per share

- 2018-04: $51.56 per share

- 2018-05: $53.50 per share

- 2018-06: $52.08 per share

- 2018-07: $53.73 per share

- 2018-08: $51.14 per share

- 2018-09: $49.15 per share

- 2018-10: $45.36 per share

- 2018-11: $46.19 per share

- 2018-12: $40.36 per share

- 2019-01: $47.43 per share

- 2019-02: $45.82 per share

- 2019-03: $46.27 per share

- 2019-04: $46.81 per share

- 2019-05: $41.47 per share

- 2019-06: $43.32 per share

- 2019-07: $43.91 per share

- 2019-08: $39.10 per share

- 2019-09: $41.82 per share

- 2019-10: $43.68 per share

- 2019-11: $46.34 per share

- 2019-12: $46.05 per share

- 2020-01: $40.72 per share

- 2020-02: $36.96 per share

- 2020-03: $31.13 per share

- 2020-04: $34.25 per share

- 2020-05: $34.05 per share

- 2020-06: $35.21 per share

- 2020-07: $34.79 per share

- 2020-08: $36.27 per share

- 2020-09: $40.54 per share

- 2020-10: $43.75 per share

- 2020-11: $49.48 per share

- 2020-12: $49.72 per share

- 2021-01: $50.31 per share

- 2021-02: $49.65 per share

- 2021-03: $54.07 per share

- 2021-04: $58.00 per share

- 2021-05: $63.10 per share

- 2021-06: $61.31 per share

- 2021-07: $57.76 per share

- 2021-08: $60.09 per share

- 2021-09: $55.92 per share

- 2021-10: $49.67 per share

- 2021-11: $45.52 per share

- 2021-12: $46.98 per share

- 2022-01: $48.25 per share

- 2022-02: $43.53 per share

- 2022-03: $46.15 per share

- 2022-04: $46.28 per share

- 2022-05: $48.45 per share

- 2022-06: $41.83 per share

- 2022-07: $42.77 per share

- 2022-08: $41.62 per share

- 2022-09: $31.70 per share

- 2022-10: $33.61 per share

- 2022-11: $37.12 per share

- 2022-12: $34.63 per share

- 2023-01: $41.82 per share

- 2023-02: $36.39 per share

- 2023-03: $36.06 per share

- 2023-04: $33.11 per share

- 2023-05: $29.44 per share

- 2023-06: $31.81 per share

- 2023-07: $36.06 per share

- 2023-08: $34.92 per share

- 2023-09: $35.47 per share

- 2023-10: $33.73 per share

- 2023-11: $36.94 per share

- 2023-12: $36.15 per share

- 2024-01: $35.83 per share

- 2024-02: $35.36 per share

- 2024-03: $39.02 per share

- 2024-04: $34.94 per share

- 2024-05: $45.09 per share

- 2024-06: $43.15 per share

- 2024-07: $46.48 per share

- 2024-08: $48.42 per share

- 2024-09: $48.85 per share

- 2024-10: $55.54 per share

- 2024-11: $58.83 per share

- 2024-12: $53.82 per share

- 2025-01: $55.63 per share

- 2025-02: $56.35 per share

- 2025-03: $53.35 per share

- 2025-04: $45.68 per share

- 2025-05: $47.81 per share

- 2025-06: $46.83 per share

- 2025-07: $46.74 per share

- 2025-08: $49.68 per share

- 2025-09: $46.40 per share

- 2025-10: $38.64 per share

- 2025-11: $39.48 per share

- 2025-12: $39.39 per share

- 2026-01: $40.32 per share

- 2026-02: $43.55 per share

- 2026-03: $35.70 per share

- 2026-04: $30.42 per share

- 2026-05: $33.47 per share

- 2026-06: $38.10 per share

- 2026-07: $40.83 per share

- 2026-08: $37.93 per share

- 2026-09: $33.17 per share

- 2026-10: $34.10 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $18.96 per share, central $21.37 per share, high $24.58 per share

- FY2017: low $20.74 per share, central $23.41 per share, high $26.98 per share

- FY2018: low $21.27 per share, central $24.16 per share, high $28.01 per share

- FY2019: low $34.76 per share, central $39.50 per share, high $45.82 per share

- FY2020: low $45.79 per share, central $50.38 per share, high $56.48 per share

- FY2021: low $49.50 per share, central $55.92 per share, high $64.47 per share

- FY2022: low $49.08 per share, central $55.70 per share, high $64.52 per share

- FY2023: low $42.68 per share, central $48.28 per share, high $55.73 per share

- FY2024: low $31.29 per share, central $35.29 per share, high $40.62 per share

- FY2025: low $28.48 per share, central $32.22 per share, high $37.22 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:07.293Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51434/000005143426000055/ip-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.