# Intrepid Potash (IPI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/IPI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:23.781Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $32.27 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $32.65 per share, central $35.31 per share, high $38.86 per share. Buy at or below the central value $35.31 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:23.781Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.2% at the stated quote. About 11.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 13.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.27×

- FY2017: -0.09×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: -0.12×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.28×

- FY2023: -0.16×

- FY2024: -0.08×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 0.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -5.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 13.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -1.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.3%

- FY2017: -2.5%

- FY2018: 3.5%

- FY2019: 3.5%

- FY2020: -4.1%

- FY2021: 5.1%

- FY2022: 10.3%

- FY2023: -5.1%

- FY2024: -3.6%

- FY2025: 3.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $87M

- Net income, five-year total: $85M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 1193.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 44.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.06×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.72×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 2.16×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -2.5% vs -3.6%

- Per-share earnings: -8.79 to -2.80 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 5.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Market cap gain: $206M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $59M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 5.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $5.99

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$8.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$2.80

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.05

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $25M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$6.6M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -2.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -3.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$8.79

- FY2017: -$1.98

- FY2018: $0.90

- FY2019: $1.04

- FY2020: -$2.09

- FY2021: $18.66

- FY2022: $5.37

- FY2023: -$2.80

- FY2024: -$16.53

- FY2025: $0.85

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.25×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 9.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.99×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.9%

- FY2017: -7.9%

- FY2018: -10.0%

- FY2019: -6.2%

- FY2020: -10.6%

- FY2021: 22.3%

- FY2022: -2.1%

- FY2023: -10.3%

- FY2024: -48.0%

- FY2025: -7.1%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 61% since Mar 2022 · sales +17.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:57.870Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1% a year for ten years

- 2026-03-31: Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) Benefits from Strong Fertilizer Demand and Good Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/intrepid-potash-inc-ipi-benefits-184932583.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +17.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1421461/000142146126000008/ipi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-05.

- FY2016: $211M 

- FY2017: $158M 

- FY2018: $208M 

- FY2019: $220M 

- FY2020: $197M 

- FY2021: $270M 

- FY2022: $338M 

- FY2023: $279M 

- FY2024: $255M 

- FY2025: $298M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 17.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1421461/000142146126000008/ipi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-05.

- FY2017: 3.7% 

- FY2018: 18.4% 

- FY2019: 19.8% 

- FY2020: 5.3% 

- FY2021: 20.6% 

- FY2022: 41.9% 

- FY2023: 13.2% 

- FY2024: 11.4% 

- FY2025: 17.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in agricultural inputs; annual sales are USD 298.3 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1421461/000142146126000008/ipi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-05); FY2025: revenue 298328000; grossProfit 52213000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); IPI.US: Intrepid Potash, Inc. delivers potassium, magnesium, sulfur, salt, and water products. It operates through three segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield Solutions. The company offers muriate of potash for various markets, such as in agricultural market as a fertilizer input, in animal feed market as a nutrient supplement, in industrial market as a component in drilling and fracturing fluids, as well as input to other industrial processes. It also provides Trio, a specialty fertilizer that delivers potassium, sulfate, and magnesium in a single particle; salt for various markets, including animal feed, industrial applications, pool salt, and the treatment of roads and walkways for ice melting or to manage road conditions; magnesium chloride for use as a road treatment agent for deicing and dedusting; brines for use in oil and gas industry to support well workover and completion activities; and metal recovery salts. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 11.4% to 17.5% during 2023–25; it earns 0.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 13.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1421461/000142146126000008/ipi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.09286620484807796],[2017,-0.024505091965483602],[2018,0.035402069610228015],[2019,0.034672364647098185],[2020,-0.04093138336643462],[2021,0.0513207067092855],[2022,0.10308733789467292],[2023,-0.051113277485031174],[2024,-0.03595303683807655],[2025,0.03579063729879355]]; median 0.005083636340807291. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 16891000; owner earnings 28775000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 19789000; owner earnings 266002000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); FY2022: growth capex 31702000; upkeep 36994000; owner earnings 72220000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4389642758238715.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1421461/000142146126000008/ipi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-05); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 30239000; owner earnings 24118000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,97121000],[2018,0],[2019,519000],[2020,64000],[2021,702000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 19% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); IPI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 18.999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.026421264168620194. Price 32.27; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -63.84554810459999 → FY2025 1.830727050954376. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $10.40 per share

- 2016-11: $13.70 per share

- 2016-12: $20.80 per share

- 2017-01: $20.40 per share

- 2017-02: $20.00 per share

- 2017-03: $17.20 per share

- 2017-04: $18.10 per share

- 2017-05: $21.40 per share

- 2017-06: $22.60 per share

- 2017-07: $30.30 per share

- 2017-08: $37.10 per share

- 2017-09: $43.60 per share

- 2017-10: $40.20 per share

- 2017-11: $38.20 per share

- 2017-12: $47.60 per share

- 2018-01: $38.90 per share

- 2018-02: $33.10 per share

- 2018-03: $36.40 per share

- 2018-04: $45.30 per share

- 2018-05: $44.80 per share

- 2018-06: $41.00 per share

- 2018-07: $42.70 per share

- 2018-08: $34.00 per share

- 2018-09: $35.90 per share

- 2018-10: $39.50 per share

- 2018-11: $33.20 per share

- 2018-12: $26.00 per share

- 2019-01: $31.10 per share

- 2019-02: $38.00 per share

- 2019-03: $37.90 per share

- 2019-04: $37.20 per share

- 2019-05: $31.60 per share

- 2019-06: $33.60 per share

- 2019-07: $37.40 per share

- 2019-08: $29.70 per share

- 2019-09: $32.70 per share

- 2019-10: $30.90 per share

- 2019-11: $22.80 per share

- 2019-12: $27.10 per share

- 2020-01: $23.80 per share

- 2020-02: $17.70 per share

- 2020-03: $8.00 per share

- 2020-04: $9.60 per share

- 2020-05: $12.30 per share

- 2020-06: $9.90 per share

- 2020-07: $9.10 per share

- 2020-08: $9.34 per share

- 2020-09: $8.44 per share

- 2020-10: $9.98 per share

- 2020-11: $12.94 per share

- 2020-12: $24.15 per share

- 2021-01: $22.73 per share

- 2021-02: $29.69 per share

- 2021-03: $32.56 per share

- 2021-04: $32.16 per share

- 2021-05: $28.62 per share

- 2021-06: $31.86 per share

- 2021-07: $30.30 per share

- 2021-08: $31.01 per share

- 2021-09: $30.90 per share

- 2021-10: $48.71 per share

- 2021-11: $41.10 per share

- 2021-12: $42.73 per share

- 2022-01: $38.78 per share

- 2022-02: $56.89 per share

- 2022-03: $82.14 per share

- 2022-04: $76.58 per share

- 2022-05: $65.87 per share

- 2022-06: $45.29 per share

- 2022-07: $45.60 per share

- 2022-08: $46.73 per share

- 2022-09: $39.57 per share

- 2022-10: $45.25 per share

- 2022-11: $36.05 per share

- 2022-12: $28.87 per share

- 2023-01: $32.73 per share

- 2023-02: $31.67 per share

- 2023-03: $27.60 per share

- 2023-04: $25.78 per share

- 2023-05: $17.58 per share

- 2023-06: $22.69 per share

- 2023-07: $27.50 per share

- 2023-08: $26.83 per share

- 2023-09: $25.16 per share

- 2023-10: $19.89 per share

- 2023-11: $20.54 per share

- 2023-12: $23.89 per share

- 2024-01: $18.40 per share

- 2024-02: $21.08 per share

- 2024-03: $20.86 per share

- 2024-04: $20.12 per share

- 2024-05: $26.83 per share

- 2024-06: $23.43 per share

- 2024-07: $26.09 per share

- 2024-08: $24.68 per share

- 2024-09: $24.00 per share

- 2024-10: $25.09 per share

- 2024-11: $27.11 per share

- 2024-12: $21.92 per share

- 2025-01: $26.29 per share

- 2025-02: $26.09 per share

- 2025-03: $29.39 per share

- 2025-04: $33.04 per share

- 2025-05: $37.76 per share

- 2025-06: $35.73 per share

- 2025-07: $33.28 per share

- 2025-08: $30.43 per share

- 2025-09: $30.58 per share

- 2025-10: $26.63 per share

- 2025-11: $25.30 per share

- 2025-12: $27.73 per share

- 2026-01: $32.84 per share

- 2026-02: $36.97 per share

- 2026-03: $42.77 per share

- 2026-04: $39.57 per share

- 2026-05: $39.07 per share

- 2026-06: $32.78 per share

- 2026-07: $33.96 per share

- 2026-08: $38.67 per share

- 2026-09: $32.08 per share

- 2026-10: $32.27 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2022: low $39.21 per share, central $44.44 per share, high $51.39 per share

- FY2025: low $25.90 per share, central $28.66 per share, high $32.33 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1421461/000142146126000008/ipi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.