# Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ISRG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:24.907Z. Financial observations: FY1998–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $427.86 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $135.60 per share, central $190.39 per share, high $220.95 per share. Buy at or below the central value $190.39 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:24.907Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.1% at the stated quote. About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.34×

- FY2018: 0.32×

- FY2019: 0.31×

- FY2020: 0.24×

- FY2021: 0.32×

- FY2022: 0.25×

- FY2023: 0.25×

- FY2024: 0.28×

- FY2025: 0.29×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.31×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 19.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 68.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 66.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 22.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 80.4%

- FY2017: 62.1%

- FY2018: 30.9%

- FY2019: 57.8%

- FY2020: 21.6%

- FY2021: 22.5%

- FY2022: 19.8%

- FY2023: 20.9%

- FY2024: 16.8%

- FY2025: 21.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $9.7B

- Net income, five-year total: $10B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 44.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 32.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.85×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 1.05×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 62.1% vs 20.9%

- Per-share earnings: 1.89 to 6.42 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: $177B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.5%

- Per-share value change: $4.52

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.89

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.42

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.22

- Average buyback yield: 1.2%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $209M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $15B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 62.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.08

- FY2017: $1.89

- FY2018: $3.16

- FY2019: $3.85

- FY2020: $2.94

- FY2021: $4.66

- FY2022: $3.65

- FY2023: $5.03

- FY2024: $6.42

- FY2025: $7.87

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -0.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 26.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.06×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.7%

- FY2017: -8.4%

- FY2018: -0.5%

- FY2019: -2.2%

- FY2020: -3.8%

- FY2021: -2.8%

- FY2022: -1.3%

- FY2023: -0.1%

- FY2024: -0.5%

- FY2025: -0.8%

## Holders

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 25% since Nov 2025 · "Intuitive Surgical Shares Fall as US da Vinci Procedure Growth Slows" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales +9.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:58.097Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-01: FDA Expands Intuitive Surgical (NasdaqGS:ISRG) da Vinci SP System for Advanced Colorectal Surgeries ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fda-expands-intuitive-surgical-nasdaqgs-173603975.html))

- 2025-07-22: Intuitive Surgical Skids As Robotic Surgery Giant Calls For A Slowdown This Year ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9322d36c-ac35-3527-aca8-392c6dc73c7e/intuitive-surgical-skids-as.html))

- 2025-10-21: Intuitive Surgical beats earnings estimates on strong demand for surgical robots ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intuitive-surgical-beats-earnings-estimates-204329658.html))

- 2026-01-15: Intuitive Surgical Sets Softer 2026 Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intuitive-surgical-sets-softer-2026-110934192.html))

- 2026-07-17: Intuitive Surgical Shares Fall as US da Vinci Procedure Growth Slows ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/intuitive-surgical-shares-fall-us-105204800.html))

- 2026-09-16: ISRG Wins EU Nod to Expand da Vinci SP in Gynecologic Procedures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/isrg-wins-eu-nod-expand-153700902.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035267/000103526726000010/isrg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-03.

- FY2017: $3.1B 

- FY2018: $3.7B 

- FY2019: $4.5B 

- FY2020: $4.4B 

- FY2021: $5.7B 

- FY2022: $6.2B 

- FY2023: $7.1B 

- FY2024: $8.4B 

- FY2025: $10B 

- FY2026: $11B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 66%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035267/000103526726000010/isrg-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-03.

- FY2016: 69.9% 

- FY2017: 70.1% 

- FY2018: 69.9% 

- FY2019: 69.4% 

- FY2020: 65.6% 

- FY2021: 69.3% 

- FY2022: 67.4% 

- FY2023: 66.4% 

- FY2024: 67.5% 

- FY2025: 66.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in medical instruments & supplies; annual sales are USD 10.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035267/000103526726000010/isrg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: revenue 10064700000; grossProfit 6642300000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 66% to 67.5% during 2023–25; it earns 22% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 66.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 67.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035267/000103526726000010/isrg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 66%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.8036137234332614],[2017,0.6214214486447285],[2018,0.3088782433589032],[2019,0.577902478260577],[2020,0.21562086009710044],[2021,0.2245530362390728],[2022,0.1978543755276412],[2023,0.20945448061882277],[2024,0.1680564239287034],[2025,0.21644651539143536]]; median 0.2204997758152541. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 10 years; bought back USD 2.3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 53900000; owner earnings 774100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2017: growth capex 73456893.20445764; upkeep 117243106.79554236; owner earnings 641856893.2044576. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11444434730259821.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2018: growth capex 64600000; upkeep 122800000; owner earnings 1127900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.057274581079882966.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2019: growth capex 158241072.39060283; upkeep 267358927.60939717; owner earnings 1314941072.3906028. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12034080896333685.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 341500000; owner earnings 995300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2021: growth capex 43300000; upkeep 310200000; owner earnings 1704600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.025401853807344832.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2022: growth capex 161243577.22011793; upkeep 371156422.7798821; owner earnings 1316943577.220118. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12243772626954934.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2023: growth capex 334220944.12735856; upkeep 729979055.8726414; owner earnings 1522820944.1273584. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2194748801008128.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); FY2024: growth capex 525907485.4373177; upkeep 585292514.5626823; owner earnings 2199307485.437318. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23912412835385974.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035267/000103526726000010/isrg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 539800000; owner earnings 2993300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,8000000],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035267/000103526726000010/isrg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); FY2025: cash repurchases 2295300000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ISRG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.514 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"OUR PRODUCTS ARE SUBJECT TO A LENGTHY AND UNCERTAIN DOMESTIC REGULATORY REVIEW PROCESS." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035267/000103526726000010/isrg-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-03); OUR PRODUCTS ARE SUBJECT TO A LENGTHY AND UNCERTAIN DOMESTIC REGULATORY REVIEW PROCESS.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 18.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 16.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-03); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3455909560645122. Price 427.86; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.7510993843447669 → FY2025 8.252826027019575. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-11: $71.53 per share

- 2016-12: $70.46 per share

- 2017-01: $76.97 per share

- 2017-02: $81.89 per share

- 2017-03: $85.16 per share

- 2017-04: $92.87 per share

- 2017-05: $101.63 per share

- 2017-06: $103.93 per share

- 2017-07: $104.25 per share

- 2017-08: $111.63 per share

- 2017-09: $116.21 per share

- 2017-10: $125.12 per share

- 2017-11: $133.26 per share

- 2017-12: $121.65 per share

- 2018-01: $143.89 per share

- 2018-02: $142.15 per share

- 2018-03: $137.61 per share

- 2018-04: $146.93 per share

- 2018-05: $153.22 per share

- 2018-06: $159.49 per share

- 2018-07: $169.40 per share

- 2018-08: $186.67 per share

- 2018-09: $191.33 per share

- 2018-10: $173.73 per share

- 2018-11: $176.96 per share

- 2018-12: $159.64 per share

- 2019-01: $174.55 per share

- 2019-02: $182.54 per share

- 2019-03: $190.19 per share

- 2019-04: $170.21 per share

- 2019-05: $154.95 per share

- 2019-06: $174.85 per share

- 2019-07: $173.17 per share

- 2019-08: $170.45 per share

- 2019-09: $179.98 per share

- 2019-10: $184.32 per share

- 2019-11: $197.63 per share

- 2019-12: $197.05 per share

- 2020-01: $186.59 per share

- 2020-02: $177.99 per share

- 2020-03: $165.07 per share

- 2020-04: $170.29 per share

- 2020-05: $193.34 per share

- 2020-06: $189.94 per share

- 2020-07: $228.48 per share

- 2020-08: $243.61 per share

- 2020-09: $236.51 per share

- 2020-10: $222.36 per share

- 2020-11: $242.02 per share

- 2020-12: $272.70 per share

- 2021-01: $249.21 per share

- 2021-02: $245.60 per share

- 2021-03: $246.31 per share

- 2021-04: $288.33 per share

- 2021-05: $280.73 per share

- 2021-06: $306.55 per share

- 2021-07: $330.49 per share

- 2021-08: $351.19 per share

- 2021-09: $331.38 per share

- 2021-10: $361.13 per share

- 2021-11: $324.34 per share

- 2021-12: $359.30 per share

- 2022-01: $284.18 per share

- 2022-02: $290.33 per share

- 2022-03: $301.68 per share

- 2022-04: $239.30 per share

- 2022-05: $227.64 per share

- 2022-06: $200.71 per share

- 2022-07: $230.17 per share

- 2022-08: $205.74 per share

- 2022-09: $187.44 per share

- 2022-10: $246.47 per share

- 2022-11: $270.39 per share

- 2022-12: $265.35 per share

- 2023-01: $245.69 per share

- 2023-02: $229.39 per share

- 2023-03: $255.47 per share

- 2023-04: $301.22 per share

- 2023-05: $307.84 per share

- 2023-06: $341.94 per share

- 2023-07: $324.40 per share

- 2023-08: $312.68 per share

- 2023-09: $292.29 per share

- 2023-10: $262.22 per share

- 2023-11: $310.84 per share

- 2023-12: $337.36 per share

- 2024-01: $378.22 per share

- 2024-02: $385.60 per share

- 2024-03: $399.09 per share

- 2024-04: $370.62 per share

- 2024-05: $402.12 per share

- 2024-06: $444.85 per share

- 2024-07: $444.61 per share

- 2024-08: $492.63 per share

- 2024-09: $491.27 per share

- 2024-10: $503.84 per share

- 2024-11: $542.00 per share

- 2024-12: $521.96 per share

- 2025-01: $571.88 per share

- 2025-02: $573.15 per share

- 2025-03: $495.27 per share

- 2025-04: $515.80 per share

- 2025-05: $552.34 per share

- 2025-06: $543.41 per share

- 2025-07: $481.09 per share

- 2025-08: $473.30 per share

- 2025-09: $447.23 per share

- 2025-10: $534.28 per share

- 2025-11: $573.48 per share

- 2025-12: $566.36 per share

- 2026-01: $504.22 per share

- 2026-02: $503.51 per share

- 2026-03: $460.99 per share

- 2026-04: $457.61 per share

- 2026-05: $424.64 per share

- 2026-06: $397.68 per share

- 2026-07: $353.33 per share

- 2026-08: $376.86 per share

- 2026-09: $406.63 per share

- 2026-10: $422.06 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $43.08 per share, central $55.74 per share, high $63.11 per share

- FY2017: low $43.47 per share, central $58.43 per share, high $66.78 per share

- FY2018: low $46.40 per share, central $63.83 per share, high $73.56 per share

- FY2019: low $68.00 per share, central $91.82 per share, high $105.11 per share

- FY2020: low $60.45 per share, central $79.43 per share, high $90.79 per share

- FY2021: low $77.81 per share, central $108.34 per share, high $125.37 per share

- FY2022: low $80.95 per share, central $108.35 per share, high $125.22 per share

- FY2023: low $78.19 per share, central $104.54 per share, high $120.25 per share

- FY2024: low $82.25 per share, central $112.95 per share, high $130.82 per share

- FY2025: low $121.91 per share, central $170.59 per share, high $197.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:08.999Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035267/000103526726000010/isrg-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-03.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.