# Ithaca Energy (ITH.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ITH.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:53.905Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 291.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 430.80 per share, central GBX 487.04 per share, high GBX 561.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 487.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:53.905Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.3% at the stated quote. About 15.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 2.41×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.16×

- FY2017: -0.23×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: -0.05×

- FY2020: -0.36×

- FY2021: 0.35×

- FY2022: 0.44×

- FY2023: 0.38×

- FY2024: 0.35×

- FY2025: 0.36×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -3.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 42.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 41.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 22.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.5%

- FY2017: -3.6%

- FY2018: 2.2%

- FY2019: -0.9%

- FY2020: -18.9%

- FY2021: 30.9%

- FY2022: 27.5%

- FY2023: 26.9%

- FY2024: 16.1%

- FY2025: 26.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.45×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $2.6B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.44×

- FY2022: 1.26×

- FY2023: 1.88×

- FY2024: 1.84×

- FY2025: 1.27×

### management: fail

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -1.5% vs 26.7%

- Per-share earnings: -0.13 to 0.13 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 15.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 10.6%

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 15.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 10.6%

- Per-share value change: $0.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.13

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.13

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $2.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -1.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.13

- FY2017: -$0.06

- FY2018: $0.28

- FY2019: -$0.02

- FY2020: -$0.45

- FY2021: $0.42

- FY2022: $1.02

- FY2023: $0.29

- FY2024: $0.13

- FY2025: -$0.05

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -16.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.39×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.52×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.9%

- FY2017: -8.0%

- FY2018: 2.3%

- FY2019: -6.2%

- FY2020: -27.9%

- FY2021: -10.3%

- FY2022: -10.2%

- FY2023: -15.8%

- FY2024: -8.5%

- FY2025: -16.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6% a year for ten years · sales +48.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.330Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +48.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/21380057TNFLXPXBIP34/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380057TNFLXPXBIP34-2025-12-31/reports/21380057TNFLXPXBIP34-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-15.

- FY2016: $144M 

- FY2017: $242M 

- FY2018: $326M 

- FY2019: $538M 

- FY2020: $1.1B 

- FY2021: $1.4B 

- FY2022: $2.6B 

- FY2023: $2.3B 

- FY2024: $2.0B 

- FY2025: $2.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 41.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/21380057TNFLXPXBIP34/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380057TNFLXPXBIP34-2025-12-31/reports/21380057TNFLXPXBIP34-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-04-15.

- FY2016: 47.5% 

- FY2017: 51.5% 

- FY2018: 62.9% 

- FY2019: 18.7% 

- FY2020: 28.1% 

- FY2021: 38.4% 

- FY2022: 48.0% 

- FY2023: 43.2% 

- FY2024: 42.5% 

- FY2025: 41.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas e&p; annual sales are USD 2.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XE3.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-04-15); FY2025: revenue 2946500000; grossProfit 1235600000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 41.9% to 43.2% during 2023–25; it earns 9.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XE3.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-04-15); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XE3.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-04-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 42.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XE3.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-04-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 41.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.014737414170127257],[2017,-0.03624360878193976],[2018,0.021522125740944715],[2019,-0.009427551976328987],[2020,-0.1886779604046518],[2021,0.3087623034894029],[2022,0.2751087893305624],[2023,0.2687269953635002],[2024,0.16115664080230743],[2025,0.2669815909482208]]; median 0.09133938327162608. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 84740000; owner earnings 65214000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 62187000; owner earnings 229477000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://ithacaenergy-files.fra1.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/Documents/IPO-b2f4d6/Ithaca%20Energy%20plc%20-%20Final%20Prospectus.pdf (filed 2026-04-15); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 163884000; owner earnings 45917000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XE3.F.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-04-15); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 269606000; owner earnings 611598200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XE3.F.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-04-15); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 380640000; cash acquisitions 1023584000; owner earnings 1302067400. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7861221316193002.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XE3.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-04-15); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 478838000; cash acquisitions 13567000; owner earnings 549904400. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.024671561093164558.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/XE3.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-04-15); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 464078000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 281190200. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,120000000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,265972000],[2024,432692000],[2025,497700000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 86.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ITH.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 86.503 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-15); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.09675828704115924. Price 291.6; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.6615576516224502 → FY2025 -0.06405723905723906. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2022-11: GBX 187.80 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 182.90 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 188.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 176.10 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 149.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 159.60 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 144.20 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 151.20 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 176.40 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 141.80 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 184.20 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 167.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 151.20 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 144.20 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 137.20 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 137.60 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 133.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 118.60 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 134.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 124.40 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 129.00 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 129.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 108.80 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 101.60 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 104.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 110.40 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 125.60 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 143.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 159.60 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 133.40 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 143.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 157.60 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 173.40 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 232.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 197.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 217.50 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 173.40 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 165.80 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 183.60 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 222.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 258.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 270.20 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 220.80 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 217.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 242.20 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 275.40 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 274.40 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 291.60 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 104.97 per share, central GBX 118.81 per share, high GBX 137.24 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 168.80 per share, central GBX 191.41 per share, high GBX 221.52 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 283.56 per share, central GBX 322.38 per share, high GBX 374.06 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 118.90 per share, central GBX 135.25 per share, high GBX 157.01 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 77.46 per share, central GBX 88.14 per share, high GBX 102.36 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 316.06 per share, central GBX 359.47 per share, high GBX 417.26 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 922.35 per share, central GBX 1,047.42 per share, high GBX 1,213.93 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 452.42 per share, central GBX 513.67 per share, high GBX 595.22 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 338.22 per share, central GBX 383.62 per share, high GBX 444.07 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 351.57 per share, central GBX 399.25 per share, high GBX 462.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/21380057TNFLXPXBIP34/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/21380057TNFLXPXBIP34-2025-12-31/reports/21380057TNFLXPXBIP34-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.