# Johnson Controls International (JCI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/JCI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:29.326Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $147.63 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $40.06 per share, central $45.56 per share, high $52.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value $45.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:29.326Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.1% at the stated quote. About 5.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.14×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 27.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.4%

- FY2017: 15.1%

- FY2018: 12.4%

- FY2019: 24.0%

- FY2020: 28.7%

- FY2021: 32.8%

- FY2022: 28.7%

- FY2023: 31.4%

- FY2024: 27.2%

- FY2025: 34.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.14×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $11B

- Net income, five-year total: $10B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 18.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.18×

- FY2022: 1.08×

- FY2023: 1.11×

- FY2024: 1.19×

- FY2025: 1.13×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.4% vs 31.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.71 to 2.69 (three-year endpoint medians)

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.8%

- Market cap gain: $34B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$5.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.9%

- Per-share value change: $0.98

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.71

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.69

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.53

- Average buyback yield: 4.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $23B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $14B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 31.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.29

- FY2017: $1.71

- FY2018: $2.32

- FY2019: $0.54

- FY2020: $0.84

- FY2021: $2.27

- FY2022: $2.19

- FY2023: $2.69

- FY2024: $2.52

- FY2025: $5.03

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 5.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.43×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.57×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.4%

- FY2017: 3.1%

- FY2018: -0.7%

- FY2019: -1.7%

- FY2020: -4.5%

- FY2021: -2.0%

- FY2022: -1.1%

- FY2023: -0.9%

- FY2024: -0.9%

- FY2025: 5.0%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.8% a year for ten years · sales +5.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:59.122Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.8% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-07: Johnson Controls Reports Strong Q2 Results; Raises FY25 Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/johnson-controls-reports-strong-q2-105500474.html))

- 2025-08-13: JCI Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Pressure Despite Organic Growth and Raised Profit Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jci-q2-deep-dive-margin-035734806.html))

- 2025-11-07: Data center cooling drives Johnson Controls growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/data-centers-drive-growth-johnson-092934637.html))

- 2026-02-04: Johnson Controls Reports Strong Q1 Results; Raises FY26 Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/johnson-controls-reports-strong-q1-115500605.html))

- 2026-04-27: Johnson Controls boosts HVAC optimization through Nantum AI purchase ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/johnson-controls-boosts-hvac-optimization-113830484.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344425000097/jci-20250930.htm; observed 2025-11-14.

- FY2017: $30B 

- FY2018: $23B 

- FY2019: $24B 

- FY2020: $22B 

- FY2021: $24B 

- FY2022: $21B 

- FY2023: $22B 

- FY2024: $23B 

- FY2025: $24B 

- FY2026: $25B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 36.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344425000097/jci-20250930.htm; observed 2025-11-14.

- FY2016: 27.2% 

- FY2017: 30.8% 

- FY2018: 32.8% 

- FY2019: 32.1% 

- FY2020: 33.2% 

- FY2021: 34.0% 

- FY2022: 34.4% 

- FY2023: 35.0% 

- FY2024: 35.2% 

- FY2025: 36.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in building products & equipment; annual sales are USD 23.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344425000097/jci-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: revenue 23596000000; grossProfit 8592000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); JCI.US: Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company designs, manufactures, sells, installs, and services heating, ventilating, air conditioning, controls, building management, refrigeration, integrated electronic security, integrated fire detection and suppression systems, and digital solutions. It also provides energy solutions and technical services, including inspection, scheduled maintenance, and repair and replacement of mechanical and control systems, as well as data-driven building solutions. It sells its products and services to commercial, residential security, institutional, industrial, data center, marine, and governmental customers. Johnson Controls International plc was incorporated in 1885 and is based in Cork, Ireland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35% to 36.4% during 2023–25; it earns 27.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 35%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.2%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344425000097/jci-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06371181581067999],[2017,0.15114119748245677],[2018,0.1241651162114627],[2019,0.2404198600466511],[2020,0.28686963943953],[2021,0.32821791924879723],[2022,0.28652805468527487],[2023,0.31368258463122667],[2024,0.2717234395929913],[2025,0.3485032786516123]]; median 0.2791257471391331. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 34% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344425000097/jci-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-14); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3401639344262295],[2022,0.3435576876483985],[2023,0.35036496350364965]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 760000000; owner earnings 2039000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 645000000; owner earnings 2341000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 586000000; owner earnings 713000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 443000000; owner earnings 1010000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 552000000; owner earnings 1930000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 592000000; owner earnings 1657000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 539000000; owner earnings 2055000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 494000000; owner earnings 2027000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344425000097/jci-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 434000000; owner earnings 3722000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); Dividend observations: [[2016,915000000],[2017,702000000],[2018,954000000],[2019,920000000],[2020,194000000],[2021,762000000],[2022,916000000],[2023,980000000],[2024,1000000000],[2025,976000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344425000097/jci-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-14); FY2025: cash repurchases 5991000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); JCI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.172 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Potential liability for environmental contamination could result in substantial costs." (SEC filing, Nov 2025)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344425000097/jci-20250930.htm (filed 2025-11-14); Potential liability for environmental contamination could result in substantial costs.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-14); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.216345681019047. Price 147.63; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.36281179138322 → FY2025 5.690261427916221. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $40.32 per share

- 2016-11: $44.98 per share

- 2016-12: $41.19 per share

- 2017-01: $43.98 per share

- 2017-02: $41.94 per share

- 2017-03: $42.12 per share

- 2017-04: $41.57 per share

- 2017-05: $41.76 per share

- 2017-06: $43.36 per share

- 2017-07: $38.95 per share

- 2017-08: $39.59 per share

- 2017-09: $40.29 per share

- 2017-10: $41.39 per share

- 2017-11: $37.64 per share

- 2017-12: $38.11 per share

- 2018-01: $39.13 per share

- 2018-02: $36.87 per share

- 2018-03: $35.24 per share

- 2018-04: $33.87 per share

- 2018-05: $33.56 per share

- 2018-06: $33.45 per share

- 2018-07: $37.51 per share

- 2018-08: $37.77 per share

- 2018-09: $35.00 per share

- 2018-10: $31.97 per share

- 2018-11: $34.78 per share

- 2018-12: $29.65 per share

- 2019-01: $33.77 per share

- 2019-02: $35.27 per share

- 2019-03: $36.94 per share

- 2019-04: $37.50 per share

- 2019-05: $38.52 per share

- 2019-06: $41.31 per share

- 2019-07: $42.44 per share

- 2019-08: $42.69 per share

- 2019-09: $43.89 per share

- 2019-10: $43.33 per share

- 2019-11: $42.83 per share

- 2019-12: $40.71 per share

- 2020-01: $39.45 per share

- 2020-02: $36.57 per share

- 2020-03: $26.96 per share

- 2020-04: $29.11 per share

- 2020-05: $31.41 per share

- 2020-06: $34.14 per share

- 2020-07: $38.48 per share

- 2020-08: $40.73 per share

- 2020-09: $40.85 per share

- 2020-10: $42.21 per share

- 2020-11: $46.04 per share

- 2020-12: $46.59 per share

- 2021-01: $49.82 per share

- 2021-02: $55.79 per share

- 2021-03: $59.67 per share

- 2021-04: $62.34 per share

- 2021-05: $66.54 per share

- 2021-06: $68.63 per share

- 2021-07: $71.42 per share

- 2021-08: $74.80 per share

- 2021-09: $68.08 per share

- 2021-10: $73.37 per share

- 2021-11: $74.76 per share

- 2021-12: $81.31 per share

- 2022-01: $72.67 per share

- 2022-02: $64.96 per share

- 2022-03: $65.57 per share

- 2022-04: $59.87 per share

- 2022-05: $54.51 per share

- 2022-06: $47.88 per share

- 2022-07: $53.91 per share

- 2022-08: $54.14 per share

- 2022-09: $49.22 per share

- 2022-10: $57.84 per share

- 2022-11: $66.44 per share

- 2022-12: $64.00 per share

- 2023-01: $69.57 per share

- 2023-02: $62.72 per share

- 2023-03: $60.22 per share

- 2023-04: $59.84 per share

- 2023-05: $59.70 per share

- 2023-06: $68.14 per share

- 2023-07: $69.55 per share

- 2023-08: $59.06 per share

- 2023-09: $53.21 per share

- 2023-10: $49.02 per share

- 2023-11: $52.80 per share

- 2023-12: $57.64 per share

- 2024-01: $52.69 per share

- 2024-02: $59.27 per share

- 2024-03: $65.32 per share

- 2024-04: $65.07 per share

- 2024-05: $71.91 per share

- 2024-06: $66.47 per share

- 2024-07: $71.54 per share

- 2024-08: $72.85 per share

- 2024-09: $77.61 per share

- 2024-10: $75.55 per share

- 2024-11: $83.86 per share

- 2024-12: $78.93 per share

- 2025-01: $78.00 per share

- 2025-02: $85.66 per share

- 2025-03: $80.11 per share

- 2025-04: $83.90 per share

- 2025-05: $101.37 per share

- 2025-06: $105.62 per share

- 2025-07: $105.00 per share

- 2025-08: $106.89 per share

- 2025-09: $109.95 per share

- 2025-10: $114.39 per share

- 2025-11: $116.31 per share

- 2025-12: $119.75 per share

- 2026-01: $119.26 per share

- 2026-02: $144.30 per share

- 2026-03: $130.95 per share

- 2026-04: $146.03 per share

- 2026-05: $134.06 per share

- 2026-06: $146.11 per share

- 2026-07: $146.66 per share

- 2026-08: $138.24 per share

- 2026-09: $148.65 per share

- 2026-10: $156.47 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $6.53 per share, central $7.55 per share, high $8.75 per share

- FY2017: low $14.68 per share, central $16.70 per share, high $19.39 per share

- FY2018: low $13.59 per share, central $15.47 per share, high $17.96 per share

- FY2019: low $15.26 per share, central $16.99 per share, high $19.31 per share

- FY2020: low $16.65 per share, central $18.67 per share, high $21.35 per share

- FY2021: low $26.11 per share, central $30.36 per share, high $35.12 per share

- FY2022: low $28.20 per share, central $31.77 per share, high $36.52 per share

- FY2023: low $30.04 per share, central $35.31 per share, high $40.99 per share

- FY2024: low $30.48 per share, central $34.65 per share, high $40.21 per share

- FY2025: low $34.82 per share, central $39.62 per share, high $46.01 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:13.801Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/833444/000083344425000097/jci-20250930.htm); period 2025-09-30, filed 2025-11-14.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.