# J D Wetherspoon (JDW.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/JDW.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:43:09.814Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 1,025.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 458.89 per share, central GBX 520.96 per share, high GBX 603.59 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 520.96 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:43:09.814Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 641.77×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: -0.10×

- FY2021: -0.40×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -5.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 8.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.0%

- FY2018: 9.8%

- FY2019: 9.5%

- FY2020: -5.9%

- FY2021: -15.0%

- FY2022: 2.2%

- FY2023: 4.7%

- FY2024: 7.7%

- FY2025: 7.2%

- FY2026: 6.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.92×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 235M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 256M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -6.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: -0.30×

- FY2023: 0.55×

- FY2024: -0.71×

- FY2025: 1.31×

- FY2026: 2.54×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.8% vs 7.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.50 to 0.56 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- Market cap gain: GBP -302M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 45M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -3.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 1.4%

- Per-share value change: GBP 0.06

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.50

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.56

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.84

- Average buyback yield: 3.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: GBP 21M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 177M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 0.50

- FY2018: GBP 0.63

- FY2019: GBP 0.69

- FY2020: GBP -0.90

- FY2021: GBP -1.39

- FY2022: GBP 0.15

- FY2023: GBP 0.46

- FY2024: GBP 0.39

- FY2025: GBP 0.57

- FY2026: GBP 0.56

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.38×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -8.4%

- FY2018: -7.4%

- FY2019: -6.6%

- FY2020: -5.0%

- FY2021: -7.1%

- FY2022: -4.8%

- FY2023: -15.2%

- FY2024: -6.5%

- FY2025: -6.6%

- FY2026: -7.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.5% a year for ten years · sales +5.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.620Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85/2025-07-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27/reports/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27.xhtml; observed 2025-11-18.

- FY2017: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2018: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2019: GBP 1.8B 

- FY2020: GBP 1.3B 

- FY2021: GBP 773M 

- FY2022: GBP 1.7B 

- FY2023: GBP 1.9B 

- FY2024: GBP 2.0B 

- FY2025: GBP 2.1B 

- FY2026: GBP 2.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85/2025-07-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27/reports/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27.xhtml; observed 2025-11-18.

- FY2017: 14.9% 

- FY2018: 15.0% 

- FY2019: 13.9% 

- FY2020: 3.5% 

- FY2022: 5.8% 

- FY2023: 8.3% 

- FY2024: 11.7% 

- FY2025: 6.7% 

- FY2026: 8.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are GBP 2.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); FY2026: revenue 2238023000; grossProfit 179215000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); JDW.LSE: J D Wetherspoon plc owns and operates pubs and hotels in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. It also offers food and drinks; and slot/fruit machines and other products, as well as operates bar. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Watford, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 6.7% to 11.7% during 2024–26; it earns 6.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.7%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85/2025-07-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27/reports/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27.xhtml (filed 2025-11-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 6.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.0997306881569341],[2018,0.09791068447869357],[2019,0.09547478139780619],[2020,-0.05912156689104541],[2021,-0.14968058589201744],[2022,0.02201089701193658],[2023,0.04704665980875373],[2024,0.07743965678050416],[2025,0.07238401591732302],[2026,0.06363948872487049]]; median 0.06801175232109676. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years; bought back GBP 74.5 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); FY2017: growth capex 49615566.09983885; upkeep 84043433.90016115; owner earnings 45429566.09983885. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0921426365992708.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); FY2018: growth capex 1129000; upkeep 78902000; owner earnings 66709000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.016924253099281954.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); FY2019: growth capex 43913000; upkeep 81756000; owner earnings 70798200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6202558822116947.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 46961000; cash acquisitions 5315000; owner earnings 32686000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.16260784433702502.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85/2025-07-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27/reports/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27.xhtml (filed 2025-11-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 92827000; owner earnings 89311000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 26338000; owner earnings 153499000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); Dividend observations: [[2017,13352000],[2018,12655000],[2019,12652000],[2020,8371000],[2021,18463000],[2022,25727000],[2023,19691000],[2024,0],[2025,19460000],[2026,13340000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); FY2026: cash repurchases 74454000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 42.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); JDW.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 42.826 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 11.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12374863417313697. Price 1025; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.4963881216948209 → FY2026 1.4296398401773325. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 870.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 820.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 888.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 937.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 979.50 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 945.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 994.50 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 1,029.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 975.50 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 1,023.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 1,092.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 1,255.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 1,245.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 1,222.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 1,257.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 1,259.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 1,268.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 1,139.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 1,164.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 1,220.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 1,260.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 1,219.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 1,245.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 1,306.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 1,235.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,143.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,113.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 1,214.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 1,312.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 1,310.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 1,368.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 1,331.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 1,428.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 1,531.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 1,579.00 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 1,550.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 1,463.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 1,601.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 1,663.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 1,551.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 1,344.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 883.50 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 945.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 1,137.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 1,006.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 845.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 1,024.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 836.50 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 862.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 1,104.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 1,116.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 1,151.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 1,236.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 1,358.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 1,336.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 1,317.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 1,178.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 1,135.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 1,113.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 1,043.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 1,023.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 857.50 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 961.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 892.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 876.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 781.50 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 735.50 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 746.50 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 624.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 556.50 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 482.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 404.60 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 451.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 443.40 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 444.20 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 454.20 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 562.50 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 715.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 713.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 733.50 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 672.50 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 676.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 723.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 691.50 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 632.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 686.00 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 810.50 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 840.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 758.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 735.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 724.50 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 766.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 732.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 746.50 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 759.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 741.50 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 614.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 642.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 600.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 625.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 594.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 553.00 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 653.50 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 731.50 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 774.50 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 753.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 695.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 681.50 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 645.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 686.50 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 737.50 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 670.50 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 723.50 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 558.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 585.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 635.50 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 682.50 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 778.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 851.50 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 813.50 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 1,025.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 575.49 per share, central GBX 652.68 per share, high GBX 755.44 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 629.01 per share, central GBX 711.93 per share, high GBX 822.30 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 691.75 per share, central GBX 786.27 per share, high GBX 912.09 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 599.20 per share, central GBX 662.87 per share, high GBX 747.62 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 205.62 per share, central GBX 230.71 per share, high GBX 264.12 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 394.31 per share, central GBX 447.65 per share, high GBX 518.65 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:49:00.448Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85/2025-07-27/ESEF/GB/0/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27/reports/213800CHWARFAAN7UB85-2025-07-27.xhtml); period 2025-07-27, filed 2025-11-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

J D Wetherspoon

JDW · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 1,025.00
Buy up to: GBX 520.96
Expected / yr: 6.5% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 64176.5% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 6.1%
Worst year: -40.4%
Latest · 2026: 5.4%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 6.8% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year -5.9% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 6.8%
Worst year: -15.0%
Latest · 2026: 6.4%

Each $1 of profit left $0.92 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.92×
Annual median: 0.55×
Latest · 2026: 2.54×

Per-share value rose from 0.5 to 0.56, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.48
Worst year: GBP -1.39
Latest · 2026: GBP 0.56

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -7.5% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -6.8%
Worst year: -4.8%
Latest · 2026: -7.5%

Profit record · fail 2 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin -0.0%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.63 GBP. Mean operating margin over the last ten years is negative.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 870.00; 2016-11 · Price GBX 820.00; 2016-12 · Price GBX 888.00; 2017-01 · Price GBX 937.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-02 · Price GBX 979.50 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-03 · Price GBX 945.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-04 · Price GBX 994.50 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-05 · Price GBX 1029.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-06 · Price GBX 975.50 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-07 · Price GBX 1023.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-08 · Price GBX 1092.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-09 · Price GBX 1255.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-10 · Price GBX 1245.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-11 · Price GBX 1222.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2017-12 · Price GBX 1257.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2018-01 · Price GBX 1259.00 · Value 652.68 · Buy at or below 652.68; 2018-02 · Price GBX 1268.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-03 · Price GBX 1139.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-04 · Price GBX 1164.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-05 · Price GBX 1220.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-06 · Price GBX 1260.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-07 · Price GBX 1219.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-08 · Price GBX 1245.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-09 · Price GBX 1306.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-10 · Price GBX 1235.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-11 · Price GBX 1143.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2018-12 · Price GBX 1113.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2019-01 · Price GBX 1214.00 · Value 711.93 · Buy at or below 711.93; 2019-02 · Price GBX 1312.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-03 · Price GBX 1310.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-04 · Price GBX 1368.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-05 · Price GBX 1331.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-06 · Price GBX 1428.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-07 · Price GBX 1531.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-08 · Price GBX 1579.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-09 · Price GBX 1550.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-10 · Price GBX 1463.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-11 · Price GBX 1601.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2019-12 · Price GBX 1663.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2020-01 · Price GBX 1551.00 · Value 786.27 · Buy at or below 786.27; 2020-02 · Price GBX 1344.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-03 · Price GBX 883.50 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-04 · Price GBX 945.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-05 · Price GBX 1137.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-06 · Price GBX 1006.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-07 · Price GBX 845.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-08 · Price GBX 1024.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-09 · Price GBX 836.50 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-10 · Price GBX 862.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-11 · Price GBX 1104.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2020-12 · Price GBX 1116.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2021-01 · Price GBX 1151.00 · Value 662.87 · Buy at or below 662.87; 2021-02 · Price GBX 1236.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-03 · Price GBX 1358.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-04 · Price GBX 1336.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-05 · Price GBX 1317.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-06 · Price GBX 1178.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-07 · Price GBX 1135.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-08 · Price GBX 1113.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-09 · Price GBX 1043.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-10 · Price GBX 1023.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-11 · Price GBX 857.50 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2021-12 · Price GBX 961.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2022-01 · Price GBX 892.00 · Value 230.71 · Buy at or below 230.71; 2022-02 · Price GBX 876.00; 2022-03 · Price GBX 781.50; 2022-04 · Price GBX 735.50; 2022-05 · Price GBX 746.50; 2022-06 · Price GBX 624.00; 2022-07 · Price GBX 556.50; 2022-08 · Price GBX 482.00; 2022-09 · Price GBX 404.60; 2022-10 · Price GBX 451.00; 2022-11 · Price GBX 443.40; 2022-12 · Price GBX 444.20; 2023-01 · Price GBX 454.20; 2023-02 · Price GBX 562.50; 2023-03 · Price GBX 715.00; 2023-04 · Price GBX 713.00; 2023-05 · Price GBX 733.50; 2023-06 · Price GBX 672.50; 2023-07 · Price GBX 676.00; 2023-08 · Price GBX 723.00; 2023-09 · Price GBX 691.50; 2023-10 · Price GBX 632.00; 2023-11 · Price GBX 686.00; 2023-12 · Price GBX 810.50; 2024-01 · Price GBX 840.00; 2024-02 · Price GBX 758.00; 2024-03 · Price GBX 735.50; 2024-04 · Price GBX 724.50; 2024-05 · Price GBX 766.00; 2024-06 · Price GBX 732.00; 2024-07 · Price GBX 746.50; 2024-08 · Price GBX 759.00; 2024-09 · Price GBX 741.50; 2024-10 · Price GBX 614.00; 2024-11 · Price GBX 642.00; 2024-12 · Price GBX 600.00; 2025-01 · Price GBX 625.00; 2025-02 · Price GBX 594.00; 2025-03 · Price GBX 553.00; 2025-04 · Price GBX 653.50; 2025-05 · Price GBX 731.50; 2025-06 · Price GBX 774.50; 2025-07 · Price GBX 753.00; 2025-08 · Price GBX 695.00; 2025-09 · Price GBX 681.50; 2025-10 · Price GBX 645.00; 2025-11 · Price GBX 686.50; 2025-12 · Price GBX 737.50; 2026-01 · Price GBX 670.50 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-02 · Price GBX 723.50 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-03 · Price GBX 558.00 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-04 · Price GBX 585.00 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-05 · Price GBX 635.50 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-06 · Price GBX 682.50 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-07 · Price GBX 778.00 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-08 · Price GBX 851.50 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-09 · Price GBX 813.50 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-10 · Price GBX 1025.00 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65; 2026-10 · Price GBX 1025.00 · Value 447.65 · Buy at or below 447.65

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 458.89 – GBX 603.59
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 520.96
Discount to value	1 − 1025.00 / 520.96 = -96.8%
Return / year	About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 41.19/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 8.69/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 2.2B

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 153M

Owner earnings

Operating margin5.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP -1.1B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares107M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·