# Jefferies Financial Group (JEF.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/JEF

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:29.968Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $44.90 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $52.61 per share, central $67.88 per share, high $79.35 per share. Buy at or below the central value $67.88 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:29.968Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.5% at the stated quote. About 13.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.53×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.22×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.32×

- FY2020: 0.30×

- FY2021: 0.39×

- FY2022: 0.37×

- FY2023: 0.44×

- FY2024: 0.45×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- LTM to May 2026: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -6.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 53.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 59.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.4%

- FY2018: 8.3%

- FY2019: 61.1%

- FY2020: 8.2%

- FY2021: 12.8%

- FY2022: 18.9%

- FY2023: 15.9%

- FY2024: 20.2%

- FY2025: 2.9%

- LTM to May 2026: 2.2%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $4.3B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -3.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 140.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 1.40×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.3% vs 15.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.44 to 3.19 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -4.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -5.2%

- Market cap gain: $4.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $3.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 28.0%

- Per-share value change: $2.75

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.44

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $3.19

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.31

- Average buyback yield: 5.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $101M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $6.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.35

- FY2017: $0.44

- FY2018: $0.43

- FY2019: $2.91

- FY2020: $2.67

- FY2021: $6.17

- FY2022: $3.07

- FY2023: $1.17

- FY2024: $3.32

- FY2025: $3.19

### accounting: fail

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 2.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.35×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -2.11×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.19×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.0%

- FY2017: -1.9%

- FY2018: 0.5%

- FY2019: 3.6%

- FY2020: -2.4%

- FY2021: 0.2%

- FY2022: -2.0%

- FY2023: 3.8%

- FY2024: 1.5%

- FY2025: 2.9%

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Steven Check](https://gigainvestors.com/CHE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Steven Romick](https://gigainvestors.com/FPA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 43% since Nov 2024 · "Jefferies Financial stock slips 3% as Fixed Income, Asset Management revenues fall" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +12.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:58:59.232Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-25: Jefferies Q2 earnings dented by equity underwriting weakness; revenue beats ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4462430-jefferies-q2-earnings-dented-by-equity-underwriting-weakness-revenue-beats?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-12-08: Jefferies to Benefit From Pickup in Sponsor Activity in 2026, Morgan Stanley Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jefferies-benefit-pickup-sponsor-activity-160556561.html))

- 2026-01-07: Jefferies profit misses estimates despite investment banking gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jefferies-profit-misses-estimates-despite-215905809.html))

- 2026-03-25: Jefferies Says Private-Lending Blowups Led to $17 Million in Losses ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/eb4bbc3a-23a1-3b59-9a5e-5594fa8fa7fe/jefferies-says.html))

- 2026-06-25: Jefferies Drops 2% as Earnings Miss Overshadows Record Banking Revenue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jefferies-drops-2-earnings-miss-145755304.html))

- 2026-09-28: Jefferies Financial stock slips 3% as Fixed Income, Asset Management revenues fall ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jefferies-financial-stock-slips-3-210415210.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622326000009/jef-20251130.htm; observed 2026-01-28.

- FY2017: $5.0B 

- FY2018: $5.0B 

- FY2019: $5.4B 

- FY2020: $6.9B 

- FY2021: $8.9B 

- FY2022: $7.1B 

- FY2023: $7.4B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $11B 

- FY2026: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 67.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622326000009/jef-20251130.htm; observed 2026-01-28.

- FY2017: 41.9% 

- FY2018: 25.1% 

- FY2019: 54.2% 

- FY2020: 48.3% 

- FY2021: 51.6% 

- FY2022: 52.8% 

- FY2023: 60.6% 

- FY2024: 59.1% 

- FY2025: 59.7% 

- FY2026: 67.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in capital markets; annual sales are USD 10.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622326000009/jef-20251130.htm#000009622326000009 (filed 2026-01-28); FY2025: revenue 10823677000; grossProfit 6458667000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); JEF.US: Jefferies Financial Group Inc. operates as an investment banking and capital markets firm in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates in two segments, Investment Banking and Capital Markets, and Asset Management. The company provides investment banking and advisory services for mergers or acquisitions, debt financing, restructurings, and private capital advisory transactions; underwriting and placement services related to corporate debt, municipal debt, mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities, equity and equity-linked securities, and loan syndication services; and corporate lending services. It also offers financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services; equities research, sales, and trading services; wealth management services; and online foreign exchange trading services. In addition, the company provides investment-grade distressed debt securities, U.S. and European government and agency securities, municipal bonds, leveraged loans, emerging markets debt, interest rates, and credit index derivative products; and manages and offers services to a diverse group of alternative asset management platforms across a spectrum of investment strategies and asset classes. It serves public companies, private companies, sponsors and owners, institutional investors, and government entities. The company was formerly known as Leucadia National Corporation and changed its name to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. in May 2018. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 59.1% to 60.6% during 2023–25; it earns 10.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 60.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 59.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622326000009/jef-20251130.htm (filed 2026-01-28); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 59.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06446281273717064],[2018,0.082648796418614],[2019,0.6107667673917352],[2020,0.08156382060007655],[2021,0.12813787678391644],[2022,0.18861476964917867],[2023,0.15888951202091395],[2024,0.20185447015190236],[2025,0.029319023190425415],[2026,0.02249904381617925]]; median 0.10539333660126522. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 0.8% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); FY2017: growth capex 29434000; upkeep 164039000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 171726000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1714009526804328.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); FY2019: growth capex 37449355.298584014; upkeep 194779644.701416; cash acquisitions 100723000; owner earnings 922787355.298584. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.14973368946291632.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); FY2020: growth capex 18519000; upkeep 158439000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 775239000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.023888117083892837.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); FY2021: growth capex 21350000; upkeep 144255000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1674352000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.012751201658910432.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 224301000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 750491000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1155000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 390006000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); FY2024: growth capex 52734000; upkeep 197850000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 743383000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07093786110255414.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622326000009/jef-20251130.htm (filed 2026-01-28); FY2025: growth capex 5561000; upkeep 201906000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 710475000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.007827157887328899.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); Dividend observations: [[2016,91296000],[2017,117407000],[2018,151758000],[2019,149647000],[2020,160940000],[2021,222798000],[2022,280104000],[2023,278595000],[2024,302964000],[2025,374130000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622326000009/jef-20251130.htm (filed 2026-01-28); FY2025: cash repurchases 58515000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 25.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); JEF.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 25.901999999999997 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 18.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-01-28); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.029781698824906278. Price 44.9; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.5729207224745836 → FY2025 3.189619566681332. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $18.67 per share

- 2016-11: $22.02 per share

- 2016-12: $23.25 per share

- 2017-01: $23.85 per share

- 2017-02: $26.62 per share

- 2017-03: $26.00 per share

- 2017-04: $25.39 per share

- 2017-05: $24.39 per share

- 2017-06: $26.16 per share

- 2017-07: $26.03 per share

- 2017-08: $23.68 per share

- 2017-09: $25.25 per share

- 2017-10: $25.30 per share

- 2017-11: $26.31 per share

- 2017-12: $26.49 per share

- 2018-01: $27.07 per share

- 2018-02: $23.99 per share

- 2018-03: $22.73 per share

- 2018-04: $24.04 per share

- 2018-05: $21.88 per share

- 2018-06: $22.74 per share

- 2018-07: $24.25 per share

- 2018-08: $23.22 per share

- 2018-09: $21.96 per share

- 2018-10: $21.47 per share

- 2018-11: $21.85 per share

- 2018-12: $17.36 per share

- 2019-01: $20.81 per share

- 2019-02: $20.27 per share

- 2019-03: $18.79 per share

- 2019-04: $20.57 per share

- 2019-05: $17.67 per share

- 2019-06: $19.23 per share

- 2019-07: $21.33 per share

- 2019-08: $18.64 per share

- 2019-09: $18.40 per share

- 2019-10: $18.67 per share

- 2019-11: $20.90 per share

- 2019-12: $21.37 per share

- 2020-01: $21.64 per share

- 2020-02: $19.71 per share

- 2020-03: $13.67 per share

- 2020-04: $13.72 per share

- 2020-05: $14.65 per share

- 2020-06: $15.55 per share

- 2020-07: $16.20 per share

- 2020-08: $17.54 per share

- 2020-09: $18.00 per share

- 2020-10: $19.51 per share

- 2020-11: $22.73 per share

- 2020-12: $24.60 per share

- 2021-01: $23.35 per share

- 2021-02: $29.04 per share

- 2021-03: $30.10 per share

- 2021-04: $32.51 per share

- 2021-05: $32.13 per share

- 2021-06: $34.20 per share

- 2021-07: $33.19 per share

- 2021-08: $36.96 per share

- 2021-09: $37.13 per share

- 2021-10: $43.00 per share

- 2021-11: $37.58 per share

- 2021-12: $38.80 per share

- 2022-01: $36.64 per share

- 2022-02: $35.54 per share

- 2022-03: $32.85 per share

- 2022-04: $30.76 per share

- 2022-05: $33.02 per share

- 2022-06: $27.62 per share

- 2022-07: $32.57 per share

- 2022-08: $32.09 per share

- 2022-09: $29.50 per share

- 2022-10: $34.41 per share

- 2022-11: $37.99 per share

- 2022-12: $34.28 per share

- 2023-01: $39.28 per share

- 2023-02: $37.79 per share

- 2023-03: $31.74 per share

- 2023-04: $32.03 per share

- 2023-05: $30.07 per share

- 2023-06: $33.17 per share

- 2023-07: $36.79 per share

- 2023-08: $35.69 per share

- 2023-09: $36.63 per share

- 2023-10: $32.18 per share

- 2023-11: $35.44 per share

- 2023-12: $40.41 per share

- 2024-01: $40.76 per share

- 2024-02: $41.82 per share

- 2024-03: $44.10 per share

- 2024-04: $43.06 per share

- 2024-05: $46.52 per share

- 2024-06: $49.76 per share

- 2024-07: $58.47 per share

- 2024-08: $59.95 per share

- 2024-09: $61.55 per share

- 2024-10: $63.98 per share

- 2024-11: $79.14 per share

- 2024-12: $78.40 per share

- 2025-01: $76.89 per share

- 2025-02: $66.20 per share

- 2025-03: $53.57 per share

- 2025-04: $46.73 per share

- 2025-05: $48.60 per share

- 2025-06: $54.69 per share

- 2025-07: $57.66 per share

- 2025-08: $64.85 per share

- 2025-09: $65.42 per share

- 2025-10: $52.83 per share

- 2025-11: $57.56 per share

- 2025-12: $61.97 per share

- 2026-01: $61.18 per share

- 2026-02: $44.40 per share

- 2026-03: $41.27 per share

- 2026-04: $48.22 per share

- 2026-05: $52.72 per share

- 2026-06: $49.98 per share

- 2026-07: $54.60 per share

- 2026-08: $52.64 per share

- 2026-09: $45.73 per share

- 2026-10: $44.90 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $2.04 per share, central $2.32 per share, high $2.69 per share

- FY2017: low $2.58 per share, central $2.94 per share, high $3.41 per share

- FY2018: low $2.52 per share, central $2.86 per share, high $3.33 per share

- FY2019: low $3.37 per share, central $4.03 per share, high $4.70 per share

- FY2020: low $8.81 per share, central $10.02 per share, high $11.64 per share

- FY2021: low $50.47 per share, central $72.10 per share, high $84.69 per share

- FY2022: low $34.45 per share, central $39.20 per share, high $45.52 per share

- FY2023: low $39.15 per share, central $45.05 per share, high $52.35 per share

- FY2024: low $60.24 per share, central $76.97 per share, high $89.94 per share

- FY2025: low $42.33 per share, central $54.62 per share, high $63.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/96223/000009622326000009/jef-20251130.htm); period 2025-11-30, filed 2026-01-28.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.