# Jupiter Fund Management (JUP.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/JUP.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:24.996Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 171.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 252.66 per share, central GBX 276.53 per share, high GBX 308.31 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 276.53 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:24.996Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 18.4% at the stated quote. About 18.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.47×

- FY2017: 0.47×

- FY2018: 0.45×

- FY2019: 0.36×

- FY2020: 0.39×

- FY2021: 0.34×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.21×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.27×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 87.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 84.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 7

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 22.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 21.7%

- FY2017: 24.0%

- FY2018: 23.7%

- FY2019: 18.9%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 6.0%

- FY2023: 6.3%

- FY2024: 6.9%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.11×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 390M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 350M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -71.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 12.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.08×

- FY2022: 1.26×

- FY2023: -0.04×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.01×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 23.7% vs 6.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.30 to 0.12 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 297M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -10.6%

- Per-share value change: GBP -0.18

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 0.30

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.12

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.19

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 867M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 1.0B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 23.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 0.30

- FY2017: GBP 0.34

- FY2018: GBP 0.31

- FY2019: GBP 0.27

- FY2020: GBP 0.20

- FY2021: GBP 0.27

- FY2022: GBP 0.09

- FY2023: GBP -0.03

- FY2024: GBP 0.12

- FY2025: GBP 0.18

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.27×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 37.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.62×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.56×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.4%

- FY2017: -4.5%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: -2.9%

- FY2020: 0.1%

- FY2021: -2.9%

- FY2022: -9.2%

- FY2023: -8.4%

- FY2024: -0.7%

- FY2025: 3.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 33% since Dec 2021 · "65bps driven by changes to our business mix." (JUP filing, Mar 2026) · sales +19.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.105Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 8.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +19.1%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31/reports/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: GBP 351M 

- FY2017: GBP 410M 

- FY2018: GBP 413M 

- FY2019: GBP 426M 

- FY2020: GBP 505M 

- FY2021: GBP 616M 

- FY2022: GBP 379M 

- FY2023: GBP 406M 

- FY2024: GBP 403M 

- FY2025: GBP 479M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 89%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31/reports/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: 84.1% 

- FY2017: 86.5% 

- FY2018: 87.4% 

- FY2019: 88.8% 

- FY2020: 88.1% 

- FY2021: 87.8% 

- FY2022: 80.7% 

- FY2023: 84.6% 

- FY2024: 60.7% 

- FY2025: 89.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are GBP 479.2 million.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31/reports/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: revenue 479200000; grossProfit 426300000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 60.7% to 89% during 2023–25; it earns 22.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 84.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 60.7%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31/reports/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 89%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.21703175494955604],[2017,0.23952104427202717],[2018,0.23670746388443017],[2019,0.18872826306393323],[2020,8.39131802453602],[2021,3.6829809332085293],[2022,0.06024017860093486],[2023,0.06328540699649043],[2024,0.06898470533373564],[2025,2.1149317024468735]]; median 0.2268696094169931. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back GBP 37.3 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2800000; owner earnings 139000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 900000; owner earnings 158300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1700000; owner earnings 145300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 3600000; owner earnings 115300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2600000; owner earnings 109160000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 3500000; owner earnings 162080000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5300000; owner earnings 60140000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3500000; owner earnings 580000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 7600000; owner earnings 65820000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31/reports/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 500000; owner earnings 101260000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,116800000],[2017,132200000],[2018,151200000],[2019,130000000],[2020,85500000],[2021,111700000],[2022,94000000],[2023,35200000],[2024,34200000],[2025,22300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31/reports/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 37300000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 13.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); JUP.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 13.754 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 8.7% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 4.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.13429793209265722. Price 171.8; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.2755365387822108 → FY2025 0.17941875834990023. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 431.70 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 429.50 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 443.60 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 401.50 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 419.30 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 426.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 474.60 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 493.60 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 505.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 534.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 536.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 552.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 594.50 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 598.50 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 628.50 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 591.60 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 512.20 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 471.60 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 455.50 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 453.90 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 446.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 438.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 419.20 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 405.30 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 337.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 321.50 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 295.20 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 327.40 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 338.70 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 361.80 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 375.30 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 368.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 422.50 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 373.80 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 341.70 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 355.40 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 342.60 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 364.30 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 409.60 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 385.60 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 300.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 200.00 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 218.60 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 250.20 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 256.20 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 226.80 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 209.60 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 224.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 232.20 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 242.60 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 282.40 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 286.40 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 295.40 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 278.60 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 258.40 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 277.60 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 282.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 270.40 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 267.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 250.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 249.40 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 235.80 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 256.40 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 229.60 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 210.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 206.60 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 178.20 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 178.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 148.10 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 125.40 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 97.20 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 91.85 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 103.80 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 123.80 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 132.80 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 140.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 146.40 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 135.50 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 130.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 109.50 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 107.60 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 114.30 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 99.50 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 96.10 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 78.50 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 82.30 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 93.40 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 79.05 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 81.00 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 88.55 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 77.50 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 83.70 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 76.90 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 87.70 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 85.40 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 86.70 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 80.50 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 83.50 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 86.70 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 80.20 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 73.40 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 70.90 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 72.40 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 91.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 100.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 128.80 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 125.20 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 144.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 152.20 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 146.60 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 158.60 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 187.60 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 188.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 166.60 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 153.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 161.60 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 163.60 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 158.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 170.20 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 173.40 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 171.80 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 396.90 per share, central GBX 441.69 per share, high GBX 501.31 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 455.23 per share, central GBX 507.26 per share, high GBX 576.53 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 564.72 per share, central GBX 749.98 per share, high GBX 865.22 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 473.93 per share, central GBX 528.23 per share, high GBX 600.51 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 442.47 per share, central GBX 493.27 per share, high GBX 560.89 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 395.19 per share, central GBX 440.44 per share, high GBX 500.69 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 275.19 per share, central GBX 303.13 per share, high GBX 340.34 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 273.26 per share, central GBX 299.13 per share, high GBX 333.57 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 225.37 per share, central GBX 243.78 per share, high GBX 268.29 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 221.47 per share, central GBX 242.40 per share, high GBX 270.25 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31/reports/5493003DJ1G01IMQ7S28-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Jupiter Fund Management

JUP · LSE

FTSE 250

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: GBX 171.80
Buy up to: GBX 276.53
Expected / yr: 18.4% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 31.3% around their average (limit 35%), and 1 loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 35.4%
Worst year: 18.1%
Latest · 2025: 27.5%

The second-worst year 6.3% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 22.7%
Worst year: 6.0%
Latest · 2025: >100%

New investment earned -71.2% (minimum 12%), and working capital rose 12.2% of sales (limit 10%) to 19.1% (waived at zero or below).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.11×
Annual median: 1.01×
Latest · 2025: 1.01×

Per-share value fell from 0.3 to 0.12, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 2% over ten years and 1.4% over five (either must be at most 1% a year), and acquisitions used 85.6% of profits (limit 50%) while returns fell to 6.9% (minimum 15% and two-thirds of their starting level).

Earnings per share

10y median: GBP 0.23
Worst year: GBP -0.03
Latest · 2025: GBP 0.18

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 3.1% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -2.9%
Worst year: 3.1%
Latest · 2025: 3.1%

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 33.7%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.1 GBP.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price GBX 431.70 · Value 441.69 · Buy at or below 441.69; 2016-11 · Price GBX 429.50 · Value 441.69 · Buy at or below 441.69; 2016-12 · Price GBX 443.60 · Value 441.69 · Buy at or below 441.69; 2017-01 · Price GBX 401.50 · Value 441.69 · Buy at or below 441.69; 2017-02 · Price GBX 419.30 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-03 · Price GBX 426.00 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-04 · Price GBX 474.60 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-05 · Price GBX 493.60 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-06 · Price GBX 505.00 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-07 · Price GBX 534.00 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-08 · Price GBX 536.50 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-09 · Price GBX 552.00 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-10 · Price GBX 594.50 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-11 · Price GBX 598.50 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2017-12 · Price GBX 628.50 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2018-01 · Price GBX 591.60 · Value 507.26 · Buy at or below 507.26; 2018-02 · Price GBX 512.20 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-03 · Price GBX 471.60 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-04 · Price GBX 455.50 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-05 · Price GBX 453.90 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-06 · Price GBX 446.00 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-07 · Price GBX 438.00 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-08 · Price GBX 419.20 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-09 · Price GBX 405.30 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-10 · Price GBX 337.00 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-11 · Price GBX 321.50 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2018-12 · Price GBX 295.20 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2019-01 · Price GBX 327.40 · Value 749.98 · Buy at or below 749.98; 2019-02 · Price GBX 338.70 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-03 · Price GBX 361.80 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-04 · Price GBX 375.30 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-05 · Price GBX 368.00 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-06 · Price GBX 422.50 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-07 · Price GBX 373.80 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-08 · Price GBX 341.70 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-09 · Price GBX 355.40 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-10 · Price GBX 342.60 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-11 · Price GBX 364.30 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2019-12 · Price GBX 409.60 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2020-01 · Price GBX 385.60 · Value 528.23 · Buy at or below 528.23; 2020-02 · Price GBX 300.00 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-03 · Price GBX 200.00 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-04 · Price GBX 218.60 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-05 · Price GBX 250.20 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-06 · Price GBX 256.20 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-07 · Price GBX 226.80 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-08 · Price GBX 209.60 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-09 · Price GBX 224.00 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-10 · Price GBX 232.20 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-11 · Price GBX 242.60 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2020-12 · Price GBX 282.40 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2021-01 · Price GBX 286.40 · Value 493.27 · Buy at or below 493.27; 2021-02 · Price GBX 295.40 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-03 · Price GBX 278.60 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-04 · Price GBX 258.40 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-05 · Price GBX 277.60 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-06 · Price GBX 282.00 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-07 · Price GBX 270.40 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-08 · Price GBX 267.00 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-09 · Price GBX 250.00 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-10 · Price GBX 249.40 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-11 · Price GBX 235.80 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2021-12 · Price GBX 256.40 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2022-01 · Price GBX 229.60 · Value 440.44 · Buy at or below 440.44; 2022-02 · Price GBX 210.00 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-03 · Price GBX 206.60 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-04 · Price GBX 178.20 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-05 · Price GBX 178.00 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-06 · Price GBX 148.10 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-07 · Price GBX 125.40 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-08 · Price GBX 97.20 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-09 · Price GBX 91.85 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-10 · Price GBX 103.80 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-11 · Price GBX 123.80 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2022-12 · Price GBX 132.80 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2023-01 · Price GBX 140.00 · Value 303.13 · Buy at or below 303.13; 2023-02 · Price GBX 146.40 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-03 · Price GBX 135.50 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-04 · Price GBX 130.00 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-05 · Price GBX 109.50 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-06 · Price GBX 107.60 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-07 · Price GBX 114.30 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-08 · Price GBX 99.50 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-09 · Price GBX 96.10 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-10 · Price GBX 78.50 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-11 · Price GBX 82.30 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2023-12 · Price GBX 93.40 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2024-01 · Price GBX 79.05 · Value 299.13 · Buy at or below 299.13; 2024-02 · Price GBX 81.00 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-03 · Price GBX 88.55 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-04 · Price GBX 77.50 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-05 · Price GBX 83.70 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-06 · Price GBX 76.90 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-07 · Price GBX 87.70 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-08 · Price GBX 85.40 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-09 · Price GBX 86.70 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-10 · Price GBX 80.50 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-11 · Price GBX 83.50 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2024-12 · Price GBX 86.70 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2025-01 · Price GBX 80.20 · Value 243.78 · Buy at or below 243.78; 2025-02 · Price GBX 73.40 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-03 · Price GBX 70.90 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-04 · Price GBX 72.40 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-05 · Price GBX 91.00 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-06 · Price GBX 100.00 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-07 · Price GBX 128.80 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-08 · Price GBX 125.20 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-09 · Price GBX 144.00 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-10 · Price GBX 152.20 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-11 · Price GBX 146.60 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2025-12 · Price GBX 158.60 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2026-01 · Price GBX 187.60 · Value 242.40 · Buy at or below 242.40; 2026-02 · Price GBX 188.00 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53; 2026-03 · Price GBX 166.60 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53; 2026-04 · Price GBX 153.00 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53; 2026-05 · Price GBX 161.60 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53; 2026-06 · Price GBX 163.60 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53; 2026-07 · Price GBX 158.00 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53; 2026-08 · Price GBX 170.20 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53; 2026-09 · Price GBX 173.40 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53; 2026-10 · Price GBX 171.80 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53; 2026-10 · Price GBX 171.80 · Value 276.53 · Buy at or below 276.53

GBX per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	GBX 252.66 – GBX 308.31
Buy at or below	Central value GBX 276.53
Discount to value	1 − 171.80 / 276.53 = 37.9%
Return / year	About 18.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash GBX 15.84/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash GBX 79.52/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueGBP 479M

Revenue

Owner earningsGBP 101M

Owner earnings

Operating margin27.5%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtGBP 364M

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares564M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·