# Kinross Gold (K.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/K.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:29.178Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 33.82 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 15.94 per share, central CAD 20.79 per share, high CAD 23.86 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 20.79 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:29.178Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.1% at the stated quote. About 7.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 0.84×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.01×

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.28×

- FY2020: 0.45×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.30×

- FY2025: 0.43×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -12.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 36.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 24.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.7%

- FY2017: 6.5%

- FY2018: 2.3%

- FY2019: 11.4%

- FY2020: 19.9%

- FY2021: 0.6%

- FY2022: 1.0%

- FY2023: 6.6%

- FY2024: 13.4%

- FY2025: 31.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 255.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -10.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -0.33×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.08×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.3% vs 13.4%

- Per-share earnings: -0.08 to 0.77 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: $30B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $5.1B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.85

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.08

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.77

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.40

- Average buyback yield: 3.2%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $5.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$0.08

- FY2017: $0.35

- FY2018: -$0.02

- FY2019: $0.57

- FY2020: $1.06

- FY2021: $0.17

- FY2022: -$0.47

- FY2023: $0.34

- FY2024: $0.77

- FY2025: $1.99

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.33×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.55×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -15.1%

- FY2017: -6.2%

- FY2018: -10.1%

- FY2019: -5.6%

- FY2020: -5.6%

- FY2021: -8.8%

- FY2022: -15.9%

- FY2023: -11.3%

- FY2024: -13.8%

- FY2025: -10.7%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 33% since Feb 2026 · "The company cut its production forecast for 2026 and 2027 by about 8%." (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +39.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.739Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-05: Kinross Gold's Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates on Higher Gold Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinross-golds-q2-earnings-surpass-124700168.html))

- 2025-09-08: Kinross Rises After Selling Portion of Asante Gold Stake ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinross-rises-selling-portion-asante-140006568.html))

- 2025-11-05: Kinross Gold Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates as Gold Prices Rise Y/Y ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinross-gold-q3-earnings-surpass-134800289.html))

- 2026-02-19: Kinross Gold Q4 Earnings and Sales Beat on Higher Gold Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinross-gold-q4-earnings-sales-120300947.html))

- 2026-05-05: Kinross Gold Q1 Earnings and Sales Beat on Higher Gold Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/kinross-gold-q1-earnings-sales-122100396.html))

- 2026-08-03: KGC Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Gold Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/kgc-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-135000540.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +39.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926035268/kgc-20251231x40f.htm; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: $3.5B 

- FY2017: $3.3B 

- FY2018: $3.2B 

- FY2019: $3.5B 

- FY2020: $4.2B 

- FY2021: $2.6B 

- FY2022: $3.5B 

- FY2023: $4.2B 

- FY2024: $5.1B 

- FY2025: $7.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 47.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926035268/kgc-20251231x40f.htm; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: 14.2% 

- FY2017: 21.3% 

- FY2018: 18.0% 

- FY2019: 38.6% 

- FY2020: 54.5% 

- FY2021: 20.8% 

- FY2022: 14.9% 

- FY2023: 27.4% 

- FY2024: 36.5% 

- FY2025: 47.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are USD 7.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: revenue 7174533268; grossProfit 3404370014; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.4% to 47.5% during 2023–25; it earns 6.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 36.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.007422582085311904],[2017,0.0651714988476362],[2018,0.022810011376564278],[2019,0.1136053195304917],[2020,0.1989719768114281],[2021,0.006204275958156663],[2022,0.009524602036290795],[2023,0.06559866164535313],[2024,0.13443609974435158],[2025,0.315851265347871]]; median 0.06538508024649467. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.8% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 9 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 633800000; owner earnings 117200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 897600000; owner earnings 367200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2019: growth capex 328900000; upkeep 731300000; owner earnings 718600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4576955190648483.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2020: growth capex 121700000; upkeep 842300000; owner earnings 1342400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0906585220500596.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: growth capex 111500000; upkeep 986800000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 416300000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2678356954119625.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1075500000; owner earnings 1020800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: growth capex 19489862; upkeep 1174710138; owner earnings 2431939976. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.008014121315632339.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,75500000],[2018,75500000],[2019,75500000],[2020,75500000],[2021,151100000],[2022,154000000],[2023,147300000],[2024,147500000],[2025,152100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KGC.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 600300000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); K.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.182 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.16702805421682887. Price 33.82; FX 1.4190435646374344; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.6078687952542964 → FY2025 1.9858942305572318. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-10: CAD 5.21 per share

- 2016-11: CAD 4.44 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 4.19 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 5.07 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 4.68 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 4.69 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 4.75 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 5.84 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 5.27 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 5.14 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 5.69 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 5.29 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 5.10 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 5.39 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 5.42 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 5.34 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 4.61 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 5.09 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 4.97 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 4.68 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 4.95 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 4.70 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 3.90 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 3.52 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 3.42 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 3.60 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 4.40 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 4.39 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 4.39 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 4.60 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 4.26 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 4.42 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 5.06 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 5.34 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 6.62 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 6.10 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 6.40 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 5.74 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 6.16 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 6.71 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 6.75 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 5.65 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 9.19 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 8.95 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 9.80 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 12.50 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 11.58 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 11.75 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 10.60 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 9.25 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 9.34 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 8.93 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 7.91 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 8.37 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 8.65 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 9.73 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 7.86 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 8.17 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 7.59 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 6.79 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 7.44 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 7.58 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 7.34 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 6.87 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 6.32 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 7.34 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 6.49 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 5.68 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 4.58 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 4.39 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 4.31 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 5.20 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 4.94 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 5.56 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 5.52 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 6.19 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 5.04 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 6.36 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 6.83 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 6.40 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 6.32 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 6.57 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 6.86 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 6.19 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 7.24 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 8.00 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 8.02 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 7.41 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 6.64 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 8.31 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 8.88 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 11.07 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 11.39 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 12.55 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 12.18 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 12.67 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 14.05 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 13.71 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 13.35 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 16.37 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 15.50 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 18.13 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 20.35 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 20.26 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 21.28 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 22.17 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 28.71 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 34.54 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 32.62 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 39.38 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 38.66 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 42.88 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 50.42 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 42.53 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 41.15 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 41.88 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 33.58 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 32.32 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 42.44 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 34.30 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 33.32 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2019: low CAD 2.02 per share, central CAD 2.22 per share, high CAD 2.48 per share

- FY2020: low CAD 7.37 per share, central CAD 8.69 per share, high CAD 9.91 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 4.05 per share, central CAD 4.53 per share, high CAD 5.18 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 5.58 per share, central CAD 6.36 per share, high CAD 7.34 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 7.37 per share, central CAD 8.85 per share, high CAD 10.21 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 12.55 per share, central CAD 16.55 per share, high CAD 19.08 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:10.053Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/701818/000110465926035268/kgc-20251231x40f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.