# Kaiser Aluminum (KALU.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KALU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:33.861Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $148.42 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $13.12 per share, central $17.48 per share, high $20.47 per share. Buy at or below the central value $17.48 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:33.861Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.8% at the stated quote. About 3.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.57×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.00×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 13.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.6%

- FY2017: 11.4%

- FY2018: 12.1%

- FY2019: 10.8%

- FY2020: 7.4%

- FY2021: 3.5%

- FY2022: 0.2%

- FY2023: 4.8%

- FY2024: 3.6%

- FY2025: 7.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.59×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $93M

- Net income, five-year total: $158M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 46.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 23.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -0.81×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.27×

- FY2024: -0.38×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.1% vs 4.8%

- Per-share earnings: 2.63 to 2.93 (three-year endpoint medians)

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- Market cap gain: $491M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $67M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 1.3%

- Per-share value change: $0.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.63

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.93

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.20

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $652M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $478M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.09

- FY2017: $2.63

- FY2018: $5.43

- FY2019: $3.83

- FY2020: $1.81

- FY2021: -$1.17

- FY2022: -$1.86

- FY2023: $2.93

- FY2024: $2.87

- FY2025: $6.77

### accounting: fail

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 0.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 16.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.99×

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.0%

- FY2017: -6.9%

- FY2018: -4.1%

- FY2019: -11.2%

- FY2020: -9.6%

- FY2021: -4.0%

- FY2022: 1.5%

- FY2023: -7.3%

- FY2024: -5.2%

- FY2025: 0.0%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 24% since Jun 2026 · sales +22.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:00.167Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 33% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +22.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811596/000119312526059575/kalu-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2017: $1.4B 

- FY2018: $1.6B 

- FY2019: $1.5B 

- FY2020: $1.2B 

- FY2021: $2.6B 

- FY2022: $3.4B 

- FY2023: $3.1B 

- FY2024: $3.0B 

- FY2025: $3.4B 

- FY2026: $4.1B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811596/000119312526059575/kalu-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: 21.7% 

- FY2017: 19.5% 

- FY2018: 15.2% 

- FY2019: 19.7% 

- FY2020: 19.7% 

- FY2021: 10.4% 

- FY2022: 7.2% 

- FY2023: 10.8% 

- FY2024: 11.0% 

- FY2025: 9.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in aluminum; annual sales are USD 3.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811596/000119312526059575/kalu-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 3373000000; grossProfit 319900000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); KALU.US: Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. It offers flat-rolled plate, sheet, and coil; extruded rod, bar, hollows, and shapes; drawn rod, bar, pipe, tube, and wire; and cast aluminum products. The company also offers aero/HS products, such as heat-treated plates and sheets, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rods and bars, and seamless drawn tubes and billets used for end uses in the global aerospace, space, and defense industries, as well as packaging products, including bare and coated 3000 and 5000-series alloy aluminum coils used in beverage and food packaging industry. In addition, the company provides general engineering products comprising 6000-series aluminum alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire, and standard extruded shapes used in various applications, including the production of armor for military vehicles, ordnances, semiconductor manufacturing cells, electronic devices, power transmission bus pipe and bar, after-market motor sport parts, tooling plates, machinery and equipment parts, bolts, screws, and rivets. Further, it offers automotive extrusions consisting of 6000-series extruded aluminum products for structural components, crash management systems, anti-lock braking systems, and drawn tubes for drive shafts, as well as offers fabrication services, such as sawing and cutting to length. The company sells its products directly to aerospace and automotive manufacturers, tier one aerospace and automotive suppliers, beverage and food packaging manufacturers, and metal service centers through sales personnel located in the United States, Canada, and Western Europe. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9.5% to 11% during 2023–25; it earns 7.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 10.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811596/000119312526059575/kalu-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.13593272171253823],[2017,0.11359735590861648],[2018,0.12132043486272341],[2019,0.10769118522485892],[2020,0.07436434607082137],[2021,0.03522536869071523],[2022,0.001921323037636043],[2023,0.04762821142781726],[2024,0.036020725917968024],[2025,0.07438371125442064]]; median 0.07437402866262101. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 12.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 46% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 76100000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 51600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2017: growth capex 24486692.330387175; upkeep 51013307.669612825; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 34086692.330387175. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7183651641247129.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2018: growth capex 30200000; upkeep 43900000; cash acquisitions 43200000; owner earnings 91700000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.8004362050163577.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 60200000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 50900000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 51900000; owner earnings 29100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 58000000; cash acquisitions 609200000; owner earnings 15000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 40.61333333333334.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 143200000; owner earnings 12600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811596/000119312526059575/kalu-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: growth capex 14400000; upkeep 122500000; owner earnings 112500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.128.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Incremental return on capital 0.46049336283185843, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,32400000],[2017,35000000],[2018,37700000],[2019,39400000],[2020,43400000],[2021,46700000],[2022,50100000],[2023,50400000],[2024,50700000],[2025,51300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); KALU.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.482 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 33% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.47289163447754934. Price 148.42; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -14.879021289900294 → FY2025 6.768138611478763. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $72.49 per share

- 2016-11: $82.39 per share

- 2016-12: $77.69 per share

- 2017-01: $78.46 per share

- 2017-02: $78.83 per share

- 2017-03: $79.90 per share

- 2017-04: $84.41 per share

- 2017-05: $82.36 per share

- 2017-06: $88.52 per share

- 2017-07: $97.29 per share

- 2017-08: $96.32 per share

- 2017-09: $103.14 per share

- 2017-10: $99.18 per share

- 2017-11: $96.86 per share

- 2017-12: $106.85 per share

- 2018-01: $110.24 per share

- 2018-02: $100.37 per share

- 2018-03: $100.90 per share

- 2018-04: $98.54 per share

- 2018-05: $110.26 per share

- 2018-06: $104.11 per share

- 2018-07: $111.62 per share

- 2018-08: $109.59 per share

- 2018-09: $109.06 per share

- 2018-10: $95.37 per share

- 2018-11: $97.73 per share

- 2018-12: $89.29 per share

- 2019-01: $100.37 per share

- 2019-02: $109.48 per share

- 2019-03: $104.73 per share

- 2019-04: $98.40 per share

- 2019-05: $89.12 per share

- 2019-06: $97.61 per share

- 2019-07: $96.27 per share

- 2019-08: $88.43 per share

- 2019-09: $98.97 per share

- 2019-10: $107.08 per share

- 2019-11: $109.58 per share

- 2019-12: $110.89 per share

- 2020-01: $100.15 per share

- 2020-02: $94.55 per share

- 2020-03: $69.28 per share

- 2020-04: $72.23 per share

- 2020-05: $71.75 per share

- 2020-06: $73.62 per share

- 2020-07: $61.95 per share

- 2020-08: $64.28 per share

- 2020-09: $53.59 per share

- 2020-10: $62.93 per share

- 2020-11: $77.98 per share

- 2020-12: $98.90 per share

- 2021-01: $86.70 per share

- 2021-02: $114.10 per share

- 2021-03: $110.50 per share

- 2021-04: $120.47 per share

- 2021-05: $129.39 per share

- 2021-06: $123.49 per share

- 2021-07: $121.68 per share

- 2021-08: $126.26 per share

- 2021-09: $108.96 per share

- 2021-10: $97.14 per share

- 2021-11: $89.23 per share

- 2021-12: $93.94 per share

- 2022-01: $95.75 per share

- 2022-02: $96.50 per share

- 2022-03: $94.16 per share

- 2022-04: $96.50 per share

- 2022-05: $102.17 per share

- 2022-06: $79.09 per share

- 2022-07: $75.77 per share

- 2022-08: $71.76 per share

- 2022-09: $61.35 per share

- 2022-10: $80.79 per share

- 2022-11: $90.40 per share

- 2022-12: $75.96 per share

- 2023-01: $87.52 per share

- 2023-02: $79.32 per share

- 2023-03: $74.63 per share

- 2023-04: $65.72 per share

- 2023-05: $60.40 per share

- 2023-06: $71.64 per share

- 2023-07: $81.20 per share

- 2023-08: $75.92 per share

- 2023-09: $75.26 per share

- 2023-10: $56.80 per share

- 2023-11: $58.48 per share

- 2023-12: $71.19 per share

- 2024-01: $64.90 per share

- 2024-02: $72.52 per share

- 2024-03: $89.36 per share

- 2024-04: $90.49 per share

- 2024-05: $97.80 per share

- 2024-06: $87.90 per share

- 2024-07: $78.69 per share

- 2024-08: $74.55 per share

- 2024-09: $72.52 per share

- 2024-10: $74.26 per share

- 2024-11: $81.28 per share

- 2024-12: $70.27 per share

- 2025-01: $70.00 per share

- 2025-02: $70.76 per share

- 2025-03: $60.62 per share

- 2025-04: $64.46 per share

- 2025-05: $72.59 per share

- 2025-06: $79.90 per share

- 2025-07: $77.31 per share

- 2025-08: $77.87 per share

- 2025-09: $77.16 per share

- 2025-10: $90.53 per share

- 2025-11: $96.05 per share

- 2025-12: $114.86 per share

- 2026-01: $122.62 per share

- 2026-02: $130.14 per share

- 2026-03: $120.51 per share

- 2026-04: $170.43 per share

- 2026-05: $182.04 per share

- 2026-06: $195.63 per share

- 2026-07: $159.68 per share

- 2026-08: $158.78 per share

- 2026-09: $144.82 per share

- 2026-10: $148.42 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $59.76 per share, central $78.70 per share, high $89.91 per share

- FY2017: low $46.31 per share, central $51.04 per share, high $57.34 per share

- FY2018: low $49.70 per share, central $58.17 per share, high $66.48 per share

- FY2019: low $57.26 per share, central $67.27 per share, high $75.32 per share

- FY2020: low $74.64 per share, central $78.37 per share, high $83.34 per share

- FY2021: low $60.74 per share, central $66.93 per share, high $75.18 per share

- FY2022: low $58.45 per share, central $66.51 per share, high $77.24 per share

- FY2023: low $13.25 per share, central $14.90 per share, high $17.09 per share

- FY2024: low $8.27 per share, central $9.41 per share, high $10.92 per share

- FY2025: low $9.05 per share, central $10.30 per share, high $11.96 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811596/000119312526059575/kalu-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.