Margins varied 9.8% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 21.4%
- Worst year
- 16.6%
- Latest · LTM
- 16.8%
# Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KDP Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:35.320Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $34.18 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $23.50 per share, central $26.65 per share, high $30.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value $26.65 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:35.320Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 8.4% at the stated quote. About 8.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 0 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.10× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.21× - FY2018: 0.17× - FY2019: 0.21× - FY2020: 0.21× - FY2021: 0.23× - FY2022: 0.20× - FY2023: 0.22× - FY2024: 0.22× - FY2025: 0.22× - LTM to Jun 2026: 0.17× ### moat: fail - Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%. - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: 12.6% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.7% - Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.1 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 55.3% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.2% - Years with nonpositive capital: 1 - Capital spending / revenue: 3.2% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.2% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: 51.7% - FY2017: 18.4% - FY2018: 5.0% - FY2019: 9.7% - FY2020: 10.5% - FY2021: 12.7% - FY2022: 12.8% - FY2023: 12.6% - FY2024: 11.9% - FY2025: 13.9% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.14× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: $11B - Net income, five-year total: $9.3B - Return on incremental invested capital: >100% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.8 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.9 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -1.2% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: 1.12× - FY2022: 1.23× - FY2023: 1.11× - FY2024: 1.12× - FY2025: 1.13× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years) - potential debt-funded buybacks (informational) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 18.4% vs 12.6% - Per-share earnings: 0.92 to 1.53 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.7% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.8% - Market cap gain: -$46B - Cumulative retained earnings: $3.4B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.7% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.8% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025 - Per-share value growth: 6.6% - Per-share value change: $0.61 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.92 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.53 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.07 - Average buyback yield: 4.0% - Buyback history: 7 years - Debt-funded buybacks: Yes - Acquisition spending: $39B - Cumulative net income, 10 years: $14B - ROIC, first three-year median: 18.4% - ROIC, last three-year median: 12.6% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: $0.92 - FY2017: $1.20 - FY2018: $0.53 - FY2019: $0.88 - FY2020: $0.93 - FY2021: $1.50 - FY2022: $1.01 - FY2023: $1.55 - FY2024: $1.05 - FY2025: $1.53 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: 0.2% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90× - Restructuring years, last five: 1 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 4.9% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 0.96× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.72× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2016: -0.9% - FY2017: 0.4% - FY2018: -2.1% - FY2019: -2.5% - FY2020: -2.3% - FY2021: -1.4% - FY2022: -2.7% - FY2023: 1.6% - FY2024: -1.5% - FY2025: 0.2% ## Holders - [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. - [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Price needs cash profits to grow 4.1% a year for ten years · "Keurig Dr Pepper eyes $200M in supply chain savings from spinoff" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +21% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:00.487Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 4.1% a year for ten years - 2025-07-24: Keurig Dr Pepper Q2 Volume Growth Obscured By Margin Cut, Currency Headwind ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/keurig-dr-pepper-q2-volume-135644882.html)) - 2025-10-28: KDP Q3 Earnings Meet Estimates, 2025 Sales Outlook Raised, Stock Up 8% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kdp-q3-earnings-meet-estimates-174700551.html)) - 2025-11-07: Keurig Dr Pepper eyes $200M in supply chain savings from spinoff ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/keurig-dr-pepper-eyes-200m-072100496.html)) - 2026-02-24: Keurig Dr Pepper shares rise after earnings beat and strong guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/keurig-dr-pepper-shares-rise-124832707.html)) - 2026-04-13: BofA Trims Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Outlook, Wells Fargo Cuts Estimates on Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bofa-trims-keurig-dr-pepper-203529396.html)) - 2026-08-10: KDP Q2 Deep Dive: Strong Refreshment Beverages Offset Coffee Margin Pressures Amid Integration ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/kdp-q2-deep-dive-strong-072522039.html)) ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +21%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000016/kdp-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24. - FY2017: $6.7B - FY2018: $7.4B - FY2019: $11B - FY2020: $12B - FY2021: $13B - FY2022: $14B - FY2023: $15B - FY2024: $15B - FY2025: $17B - FY2026: $20B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 54.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000016/kdp-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-24. - FY2016: 59.9% - FY2017: 59.7% - FY2018: 52.2% - FY2019: 57.0% - FY2020: 55.8% - FY2021: 55.0% - FY2022: 52.1% - FY2023: 54.5% - FY2024: 55.6% - FY2025: 54.2% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in beverages non-alcoholic; annual sales are USD 16.6 billion. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000016/kdp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: revenue 16603000000; grossProfit 8999000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KDP.US: Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. owns, manufactures, and distributors beverages and single serve brewing systems in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International. It manufactures and distributes branded concentrates, syrup, and finished beverages, as well as sales of owned brands and third-party brands; tea, cocoa, and other products; and offers finished goods relating to K-Cup pods, single serve brewers, specialty coffee, and ready to drink coffee products. The company offers its products under the Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Mott's, A&W, Peñafiel, GHOST, Snapple, 7UP, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Clamato, Core Hydration, The Original Donut Shop, Sunkist soda, Squirt, C4 Energy, Hawaiian Punch, Electrolit, Bloom, Bai, Evian, Yoo-Hoo, Vita Coco, Big Red, RC Cola, Crush, McCafé, Tim Hortons, Van Houtte, Celestial Seasonings, Bigelow, Starbucks, Dunkin', Folgers, Peet's, and Swiss Miss brands, as well as other partner and private label brands. It markets and sells its products to supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, e-commerce retailers, office superstores, vending machines, fountains, grocery and drug stores, convenience stores, and other small outlets; and directly to consumers through Keurig.com website. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Frisco, Texas. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 54.2% to 55.6% during 2023–25; it earns 12.6% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 54.5%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 55.6%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000016/kdp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 54.2%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5171958145417234],[2017,0.18403973860848327],[2018,0.04998120713252261],[2019,0.09653090931880141],[2020,0.10479682762207101],[2021,0.12685661989272048],[2022,0.12834018771142955],[2023,0.1261395218260445],[2024,0.11889179253076526],[2025,0.13865868733053327]]; median 0.12649807085938247. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Can it raise prices Prices rose 3.8%; sales volumes rose. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000016/kdp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); [p0] 54.2 % 55.6 % (140) bps Operating margin 21.5 % 16.9 % 460 bps Effective tax rate 22.6 % 24.7 % (210) bps Sales Volumes Percentage Change LRB 1.0 % K-Cup pods (3.9) % Appliances (18.0) % Net Sales Drivers Percentage Change Volume / mix(1) 4.8 % Net price realization 3.8 % FX (0.4) % Total 8.2 % (1)The acquisition of GHOST contributed 3.8 percentage points to our consolidated volume / mix growth for the year ended December 31, 2025. 36 Table of Contents Gross profit increased $470 million, or 5.5%, to $8,999 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to $8,529 million in the prior year. This performance primarily reflected the gross profit impact of net sales growth (9 percentage points), partially offset by the net unfavorable impact from changes in ingredients, materials, and productivity, inclusive of tariffs (4 percentage points). SG&A expenses increased $338 million, or 6.7%, to $5,351 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to $5,013 million in the prior year, primarily driven by increased transportation and warehousing expenses (4 percentage points), costs associated with the JDE Peet's Acquisition and Separation (2 percentage points), and higher labor costs (2 percentage points). Impairment of goodwill in the prior year reflected a non-cash impairment charge of $306 million within the U.S. Warehouse Direct reporting unit in the U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment. Refer to Note 6 of the Notes to our Consolidated Financial Statements for further information. Impairment of intangible assets decreased $334 million to $78 million, driven by the favorable comparison of non-cash impairment charges for intangible brand assets compared to the prior year. Refer to Note 6 of the Notes to our Consolidated Financial Statements for further information. Other operating (income) expense, net reflected [p1] ee 24.1 % 27.2 % (310) bps International 25.1 % 26.5 % (140) bps Sales Volumes LRB K-Cup Pods Appliances U.S. Refreshment Beverages 0.7 % — % — % U.S. Coffee NM (4.8) % (19.9) % International 2.3 % 2.0 % (1.7) % Net Sales Drivers Volume / Mix(1) Net Price Realization FX Total U.S. Refreshment Beverages 9.0 % 2.9 % — % 11.9 % U.S. Coffee (4.2) % 4.8 % — % 0.6 % International 3.1 % 6.2 % (3.4) % 5.9 % (1)The acquisition of GHOST contributed 6.2 percentage points to our volume / mix growth in U.S. Refreshment Beverages for the year ended December 31, 2025. 38 Table of Contents U.S. Refreshment Beverages Sales volume increased 0.7% for the year ended December 31, 2025, led by growth in our energy portfolio, including the acquisition of GHOST, and in carbonated soft drinks. These benefits were partially offset by softness in our still beverages portfolio. Net sales increased 11.9% to $10,439 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, led by volume / mix growth, including a benefit from the acquisition of GHOST, as well as higher net price realization. Income from operations increased 56.5% to $2,939 million for the year ended December 31, 2025. This performance was led by the favorable comparison of our non-cash impairment charges for goodwill and intangible assets compared to the prior year (34 percentage points), the gross profit impact of net sales growth (32 percentage points), and the favorable comparison of the termination fee associated with ABI incurred in the prior year (12 percentage points). These benefits were partially offset by increased transportation and warehousing expenses (8 percentage points) and higher labor costs (5 percentage points). U.S. Coffee Appliance volume decreased 19.9%, reflecting price elasticity impacts, category softness, and continued retailer inventory management. K-Cup pod volume de [p2] re partially offset by softness in our still beverages portfolio. Net sales increased 11.9% to $10,439 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, led by volume / mix growth, including a benefit from the acquisition of GHOST, as well as higher net price realization. Income from operations increased 56.5% to $2,939 million for the year ended December 31, 2025. This performance was led by the favorable comparison of our non-cash impairment charges for goodwill and intangible assets compared to the prior year (34 percentage points), the gross profit impact of net sales growth (32 percentage points), and the favorable comparison of the termination fee associated with ABI incurred in the prior year (12 percentage points). These benefits were partially offset by increased transportation and warehousing expenses (8 percentage points) and higher labor costs (5 percentage points). U.S. Coffee Appliance volume decreased 19.9%, reflecting price elasticity impacts, category softness, and continued retailer inventory management. K-Cup pod volume decreased 4.8%, reflecting price elasticity impacts. Net sales increased 0.6% to $3,990 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, driven by higher net price realization, partially offset by unfavorable volume / mix. Income from operations decreased 10.8% to $962 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, driven by a net unfavorable change in ingredients, materials, and productivity, inclusive of tariffs (22 percentage points), partially offset by the benefit of net sales growth (11 percentage points). International LRB sales volume increased 2.3%. Appliance volumes decreased 1.7%, and K-Cup pod volumes increased 2.0%. Net sales increased 5.9% to $2,174 million in the year ended December 31, 2025, reflecting higher net price realization and volume / mix growth, partially offset by u [p3] prior year (12 percentage points). These benefits were partially offset by increased transportation and warehousing expenses (8 percentage points) and higher labor costs (5 percentage points). U.S. Coffee Appliance volume decreased 19.9%, reflecting price elasticity impacts, category softness, and continued retailer inventory management. K-Cup pod volume decreased 4.8%, reflecting price elasticity impacts. Net sales increased 0.6% to $3,990 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, driven by higher net price realization, partially offset by unfavorable volume / mix. Income from operations decreased 10.8% to $962 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, driven by a net unfavorable change in ingredients, materials, and productivity, inclusive of tariffs (22 percentage points), partially offset by the benefit of net sales growth (11 percentage points). International LRB sales volume increased 2.3%. Appliance volumes decreased 1.7%, and K-Cup pod volumes increased 2.0%. Net sales increased 5.9% to $2,174 million in the year ended December 31, 2025, reflecting higher net price realization and volume / mix growth, partially offset by unfavorable FX translation. Income from operations increased 0.2% to $546 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, reflecting the benefit from the gross profit impact of net sales growth (17 percentage points), which was mostly offset by a net unfavorable impact from changes in ingredients, materials, and productivity (10 percentage points) and increased transportation and warehousing expenses (7 percentage points). LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES Overview We believe our financial condition and liquidity remain strong. We manage all aspects of our business, including monitoring the financial health of our customers, suppliers, and other third-party relationships, implementing gross [p4] tage points) and higher labor costs (5 percentage points). U.S. Coffee Appliance volume decreased 19.9%, reflecting price elasticity impacts, category softness, and continued retailer inventory management. K-Cup pod volume decreased 4.8%, reflecting price elasticity impacts. Net sales increased 0.6% to $3,990 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, driven by higher net price realization, partially offset by unfavorable volume / mix. Income from operations decreased 10.8% to $962 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, driven by a net unfavorable change in ingredients, materials, and productivity, inclusive of tariffs (22 percentage points), partially offset by the benefit of net sales growth (11 percentage points). International LRB sales volume increased 2.3%. Appliance volumes decreased 1.7%, and K-Cup pod volumes increased 2.0%. Net sales increased 5.9% to $2,174 million in the year ended December 31, 2025, reflecting higher net price realization and volume / mix growth, partially offset by unfavorable FX translation. Income from operations increased 0.2% to $546 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, reflecting the benefit from the gross profit impact of net sales growth (17 percentage points), which was mostly offset by a net unfavorable impact from changes in ingredients, materials, and productivity (10 percentage points) and increased transportation and warehousing expenses (7 percentage points). LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES Overview We believe our financial condition and liquidity remain strong. We manage all aspects of our business, including monitoring the financial health of our customers, suppliers, and other third-party relationships, implementing gross margin enhancement strategies through our productivity initiatives, and developing new opportunities for growth such as innovation an [p5] city impacts, category softness, and continued retailer inventory management. K-Cup pod volume decreased 4.8%, reflecting price elasticity impacts. Net sales increased 0.6% to $3,990 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, driven by higher net price realization, partially offset by unfavorable volume / mix. Income from operations decreased 10.8% to $962 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, driven by a net unfavorable change in ingredients, materials, and productivity, inclusive of tariffs (22 percentage points), partially offset by the benefit of net sales growth (11 percentage points). International LRB sales volume increased 2.3%. Appliance volumes decreased 1.7%, and K-Cup pod volumes increased 2.0%. Net sales increased 5.9% to $2,174 million in the year ended December 31, 2025, reflecting higher net price realization and volume / mix growth, partially offset by unfavorable FX translation. Income from operations increased 0.2% to $546 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, reflecting the benefit from the gross profit impact of net sales growth (17 percentage points), which was mostly offset by a net unfavorable impact from changes in ingredients, materials, and productivity (10 percentage points) and increased transportation and warehousing expenses (7 percentage points). LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES Overview We believe our financial condition and liquidity remain strong. We manage all aspects of our business, including monitoring the financial health of our customers, suppliers, and other third-party relationships, implementing gross margin enhancement strategies through our productivity initiatives, and developing new opportunities for growth such as innovation and agreements with partners to distribute brands that are accretive to our portfolio. Cash generated by our foreign operations is [p6] owth (11 percentage points). International LRB sales volume increased 2.3%. Appliance volumes decreased 1.7%, and K-Cup pod volumes increased 2.0%. Net sales increased 5.9% to $2,174 million in the year ended December 31, 2025, reflecting higher net price realization and volume / mix growth, partially offset by unfavorable FX translation. Income from operations increased 0.2% to $546 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, reflecting the benefit from the gross profit impact of net sales growth (17 percentage points), which was mostly offset by a net unfavorable impact from changes in ingredients, materials, and productivity (10 percentage points) and increased transportation and warehousing expenses (7 percentage points). LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES Overview We believe our financial condition and liquidity remain strong. We manage all aspects of our business, including monitoring the financial health of our customers, suppliers, and other third-party relationships, implementing gross margin enhancement strategies through our productivity initiatives, and developing new opportunities for growth such as innovation and agreements with partners to distribute brands that are accretive to our portfolio. Cash generated by our foreign operations is generally repatriated to the U.S. periodically. We do not expect restrictions or taxes on repatriation of cash held outside the U.S. to have a material effect on our overall business, liquidity, financial condition, or results of operations for the foreseeable future. 39 Table of Contents The following summarizes our cash activity for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023: Principal Sources of Capital Resources Our principal sources of liquidity are our cash and cash equivalents, cash generated from our operations, and borrowing capacity currently available und [p7] and ends, natural gas in the case of glass bottles, resin in the case of K-Cup pods, PET bottles and caps, corn in the case of sweeteners, and pulp in the case of paperboard packaging. When appropriate, we mitigate the exposure to volatility in the prices of certain commodities used in our production pro [Noncontiguous filing excerpt] s and materials, represent approximately 55% of our cost of sales and include green coffee, water, aluminum cans and ends, PET bottles and caps, including both virgin and rPET, CO2, sweeteners, paper products, K-Cup pod packaging materials, fruit, glass bottles and enclosures, cocoa, teas, juices, and other ingredients. We also use post-consumer recycled materials in the manufacturing of our single serve brewers. The availability, quality, and costs of many of these materials have fluctuated, and may continue to fluctuate, over time. Additionally, under many of our supply arrangements for these raw materials, the price we pay fluctuates along with certain changes in indirect commodity costs, such as aluminum in the case of cans and ends, natural gas in the case of glass bottles, resin in the case of K-Cup pods, PET bottles and caps, corn in the case of sweeteners, and pulp in the case of paperboard packaging. When appropriate, we mitigate the exposure to volatility in the prices of certain commodities used in our production process and transportation to our customers through the use of various commodity derivative contracts or supplier pricing agreements. The intent of the contracts and agreements is to provide a certain level of predictability in our operating margins and our overall cost structure, while remaining in what we believe to be a competitive cost position. Green [Noncontiguous filing excerpt] , and pulp in the case of paperboard packaging. When appropriate, we mitigate the e [p8] 54.2 % 55.6 % (140) bps Operating margin 21.5 % 16.9 % 460 bps Effective tax rate 22.6 % 24.7 % (210) bps Sales Volumes Percentage Change LRB 1.0 % K-Cup pods (3.9) % Appliances (18.0) % Net Sales Drivers Percentage Change Volume / mix(1) 4.8 % Net price realization 3.8 % FX (0.4) % Total 8.2 % (1)The acquisition of GHOST contributed 3.8 percentage points to our consolidated volume / mix growth for the year ended December 31, 2025. 36 Table of Contents Gross profit increased $470 million, or 5.5%, to $8,999 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to $8,529 million in the prior year. This performance primarily reflected the gross profit impact of net sales growth (9 percentage points), partially offset by the net unfavorable impact from changes in ingredients, materials, and productivity, inclusive of tariffs (4 percentage points). SG&A expenses increased $338 million, or 6.7%, to $5,351 million for the year ended December 31, 2025 compared to $5,013 million in the prior year, primarily driven by increased transportation and warehousing expenses (4 percentage points), costs associated with the JDE Peet's Acquisition and Separation (2 percentag [Noncontiguous filing excerpt] 473 135 28.5 % Net income $ 2,079 $ 1,441 $ 638 44.3 % Earnings per common share: Basic $ 1.53 $ 1.06 $ 0.47 44.3 % Diluted 1.53 1.05 0.48 45.7 % Gross margin 54.2 % 55.6 % (140) bps Operating margin 21.5 % 16.9 % 460 bps Effective tax rate 22.6 % 24.7 % (210) bps Sales Volumes Percentage Change LRB 1.0 % K-Cup pods (3.9) % Appliances (18.0) % Net Sales Drivers Percentage Change Volume / mix(1) 4.8 % Net price realization 3.8 % FX (0.4) % Total 8.2 % (1)The acquisition of GHOST contributed 3.8 percentage points to our consolidated volume / mix growth for the year ended December 31, 2025. 36 Table of Contents Gross profit increased $470 ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 9 million of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 182000000; owner earnings 889000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 208000000; owner earnings 1097000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 180000000; owner earnings 840000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 365000000; owner earnings 1547000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 517000000; owner earnings 1461000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 455000000; owner earnings 2399000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 379000000; owner earnings 1766000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 481000000; owner earnings 2420000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 563000000; owner earnings 1611000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000016/kdp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 486000000; owner earnings 2346000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,386000000],[2017,414000000],[2018,232000000],[2019,844000000],[2020,846000000],[2021,955000000],[2022,1080000000],[2023,1142000000],[2024,1194000000],[2025,1250000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000016/kdp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 9000000 USD. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 4.7% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KDP.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.709 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What could break it US import tariffs could raise product costs. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000016/kdp-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-24); t our broader traceability and sustainable supply chain initiatives. We also purchase green coffee through outside brokers. Energy and Transportation Costs In addition to ingredients and packaging costs, we are significantly impacted by changes in fuel costs, which can also fluctuate substantially, due to the large truck fleet we operate in our distribution operations (reflected within SG&A expenses) and the energy costs consumed in the production process (reflected within cost of sales). We are also significantly impacted by changes in other transportation costs, such as ocean freight and tariffs. Transportation costs associated with the transportation and import of certain raw materials and finished goods to our manufacturing and distribution facilities are reflected within cost of sales. Intellectual Property Trademarks and Patents We possess a variety of intellectual property rights that are important to our business. We rely on a combination of trademarks, copyrights, patents, and trade secrets to safeguard our proprietary rights, including our brands, our technologies, and ingredient and production formulas for our products. We own numerous trademarks in our portfolio within the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and other countries. Depending upon the jurisdiction, trademarks are valid as long as they are in use and/or their registrations are properly maintained. 5 Table of Contents In many countries outside the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, the manufacturing and distribution rights to many of our CSD brands, including our Dr Pepper trademark and formula, are owned by third parties, including, in certain cases, competitors such as Coca-Cola. We hold U.S. and international patents related to Keurig brewers and coffee pod technology. Of these, a majority are utility patents and the remainder are design patents. We view these patents as valuable assets but we do not view any single patent as critical to our success. We also have pending patent applications associated with our brewers and with coffee pod technology. We take steps that we believe are appropriate to protect such innovation. Licensing Arrangements We license various trade names from our partners in order to manufacture and distribute K-Cup pods. Although these licenses vary in length and other terms, they generally are long-term, cover the entire U.S. and/or Canada, and may include royalty payments, upfront payments, or some combination of the two, to the partner in order to use their trade names to manufacture and/or distribute the K-Cup pods. We license various trademarks from third parties, which generally allow us to manufacture and distribute certain products or brands throughout the U.S. and/or Canada and Mexico. For example, we license trademarks for Sunkist soda and Rose's from third parties. Although these licenses vary in length and other terms, they generally are long-term, ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 4.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.3%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04556998092340481. Price 34.18; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8527865404837014 → FY2025 1.7214558262400939. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2016-10: $87.79 per share - 2016-11: $86.74 per share - 2016-12: $90.67 per share - 2017-01: $91.20 per share - 2017-02: $93.44 per share - 2017-03: $97.92 per share - 2017-04: $91.65 per share - 2017-05: $92.81 per share - 2017-06: $91.11 per share - 2017-07: $91.16 per share - 2017-08: $91.05 per share - 2017-09: $88.47 per share - 2017-10: $85.66 per share - 2017-11: $90.19 per share - 2017-12: $97.06 per share - 2018-01: $119.35 per share - 2018-02: $116.25 per share - 2018-03: $118.38 per share - 2018-04: $119.96 per share - 2018-05: $119.30 per share - 2018-06: $122.00 per share - 2018-07: $24.01 per share - 2018-08: $22.80 per share - 2018-09: $23.17 per share - 2018-10: $26.00 per share - 2018-11: $27.00 per share - 2018-12: $25.64 per share - 2019-01: $27.22 per share - 2019-02: $25.15 per share - 2019-03: $27.97 per share - 2019-04: $29.07 per share - 2019-05: $28.19 per share - 2019-06: $28.90 per share - 2019-07: $28.14 per share - 2019-08: $27.28 per share - 2019-09: $27.32 per share - 2019-10: $28.16 per share - 2019-11: $30.94 per share - 2019-12: $28.95 per share - 2020-01: $28.53 per share - 2020-02: $27.88 per share - 2020-03: $24.27 per share - 2020-04: $26.46 per share - 2020-05: $27.92 per share - 2020-06: $28.40 per share - 2020-07: $30.59 per share - 2020-08: $29.83 per share - 2020-09: $27.60 per share - 2020-10: $26.90 per share - 2020-11: $30.45 per share - 2020-12: $32.00 per share - 2021-01: $31.80 per share - 2021-02: $30.52 per share - 2021-03: $34.37 per share - 2021-04: $35.85 per share - 2021-05: $36.96 per share - 2021-06: $35.24 per share - 2021-07: $35.21 per share - 2021-08: $35.67 per share - 2021-09: $34.16 per share - 2021-10: $36.09 per share - 2021-11: $33.99 per share - 2021-12: $36.86 per share - 2022-01: $37.95 per share - 2022-02: $38.67 per share - 2022-03: $37.90 per share - 2022-04: $37.40 per share - 2022-05: $34.74 per share - 2022-06: $35.39 per share - 2022-07: $38.74 per share - 2022-08: $38.12 per share - 2022-09: $35.82 per share - 2022-10: $38.84 per share - 2022-11: $38.67 per share - 2022-12: $35.66 per share - 2023-01: $35.28 per share - 2023-02: $34.55 per share - 2023-03: $35.28 per share - 2023-04: $32.70 per share - 2023-05: $31.12 per share - 2023-06: $31.27 per share - 2023-07: $34.01 per share - 2023-08: $33.65 per share - 2023-09: $31.57 per share - 2023-10: $30.33 per share - 2023-11: $31.57 per share - 2023-12: $33.32 per share - 2024-01: $31.44 per share - 2024-02: $29.91 per share - 2024-03: $30.67 per share - 2024-04: $33.70 per share - 2024-05: $34.25 per share - 2024-06: $33.40 per share - 2024-07: $34.28 per share - 2024-08: $36.61 per share - 2024-09: $37.48 per share - 2024-10: $32.95 per share - 2024-11: $32.65 per share - 2024-12: $32.12 per share - 2025-01: $32.10 per share - 2025-02: $33.52 per share - 2025-03: $34.22 per share - 2025-04: $34.59 per share - 2025-05: $33.67 per share - 2025-06: $33.06 per share - 2025-07: $32.65 per share - 2025-08: $29.09 per share - 2025-09: $25.51 per share - 2025-10: $27.16 per share - 2025-11: $27.90 per share - 2025-12: $28.01 per share - 2026-01: $27.44 per share - 2026-02: $30.28 per share - 2026-03: $26.33 per share - 2026-04: $29.40 per share - 2026-05: $30.03 per share - 2026-06: $32.73 per share - 2026-07: $31.12 per share - 2026-08: $31.86 per share - 2026-09: $30.34 per share - 2026-10: $34.18 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2016: low $11.35 per share, central $12.66 per share, high $14.42 per share - FY2017: low $10.49 per share, central $11.94 per share, high $13.87 per share - FY2018: low $9.57 per share, central $10.89 per share, high $12.64 per share - FY2019: low $11.82 per share, central $13.45 per share, high $15.62 per share - FY2020: low $12.33 per share, central $14.03 per share, high $16.29 per share - FY2021: low $13.73 per share, central $15.59 per share, high $18.07 per share - FY2022: low $13.70 per share, central $15.57 per share, high $18.05 per share - FY2023: low $15.99 per share, central $18.20 per share, high $21.14 per share - FY2024: low $15.57 per share, central $17.70 per share, high $20.53 per share - FY2025: low $19.33 per share, central $21.92 per share, high $25.37 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:19.622Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418135/000141813526000016/kdp-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-24. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
KDP · US
S&P 500 · Nasdaq-100
Not a wonderful business
1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 9.8% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 12.6% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 9.7% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $1.14 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Per-share value rose from 0.92 to 1.53, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 0.2% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 21.0%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.54 USD.
| Value range | $23.50 – $30.83 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $26.65 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 34.18 / 26.65 = -28.3% |
| Return / year | About 8.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash USD 2.09/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash USD 0.70/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |