# Keppel (KEP1.F)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KEP1.F

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: SGD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 6.95 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 3.39 per share, central EUR 3.73 per share, high EUR 4.19 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 3.73 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.2% at the stated quote. About 6.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; SG 10-year bond 2.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.20×

- FY2025: 0.19×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 3.0%

- FY2018: 5.2%

- FY2019: 3.8%

- FY2020: 2.6%

- FY2021: 3.3%

- FY2022: 2.2%

- FY2023: 4.9%

- FY2024: 4.6%

- FY2025: 4.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.76×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: SGD 5.9B

- Net income, five-year total: SGD 7.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -26.9 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.89×

- FY2022: 0.47×

- FY2023: 0.85×

- FY2024: 0.54×

- FY2025: 0.74×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.8% vs 4.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.25 to 0.53 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -8.6%

- Market cap gain: SGD -1.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: SGD 4.5B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -8.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.9%

- Per-share value change: SGD 0.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: SGD 0.25

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: SGD 0.53

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.61

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: SGD 0.07

- FY2018: SGD 0.33

- FY2019: SGD 0.25

- FY2020: SGD -0.18

- FY2021: SGD 0.56

- FY2022: SGD 0.54

- FY2023: SGD 2.31

- FY2024: SGD 0.53

- FY2025: SGD 0.44

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.14×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.83×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.5%

- FY2018: 3.1%

- FY2019: 4.9%

- FY2020: -2.2%

- FY2021: 4.3%

- FY2022: 2.2%

- FY2023: 15.0%

- FY2024: 2.7%

- FY2025: 0.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.4% a year for ten years · sales +3.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.316Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: SGD 6.0B 

- FY2018: SGD 6.0B 

- FY2019: SGD 7.6B 

- FY2020: SGD 6.6B 

- FY2021: SGD 8.6B 

- FY2022: SGD 6.6B 

- FY2023: SGD 7.0B 

- FY2024: SGD 5.8B 

- FY2025: SGD 6.0B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 29.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 32.9% 

- FY2018: 29.8% 

- FY2019: 30.5% 

- FY2020: 30.2% 

- FY2021: 23.4% 

- FY2022: 21.8% 

- FY2023: 28.2% 

- FY2024: 25.6% 

- FY2025: 29.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are SGD 6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2025: revenue 5982987000; grossProfit 1745623000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KEP1.F: Keppel Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the infrastructure, real estate, and connectivity businesses in Singapore, China, Hong Kong, other Far East and ASEAN countries, and internationally. The company manages private funds and listed real estate investment and business trusts in areas of infrastructure, real estate, and connectivity; provides energy and environmental solutions and services, including commercial power generation, renewables, environmental engineering and construction, and infrastructure operation and maintenance; sustainable and urban space solutions; sustainable urban renewal and senior living services; system integration solutions and services; and engages in the property development and investment, and master development activities. It also offers telecommunication services; leases, develops, operates, and manages data centres; trades and sells telecommunication and information technology equipment; and develops and operates golf club. In addition, the company engages in electricity, energy and power supply; general wholesale trading; purchase and sale of gaseous fuels; development of district heating and cooling system; environmental, technology, and engineering works and construction activities; solid waste treatment activities; design and construction of waste-to-energy and desalination plants; commercial power generation; ownership and operation of hotels; and renewable energy generation activities. The company was formerly known as Keppel Corporation and changed its name to Keppel Ltd. in January 2024. Keppel Ltd. Limited was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Singapore.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 25.6% to 29.2% during 2023–25; it earns 3.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 25.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 29.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); 9-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.02990896638946084],[2018,0.05215075194997585],[2019,0.03777403090994381],[2020,0.02604359628593312],[2021,0.03280924873143971],[2022,0.022108483540757392],[2023,0.04861708404227202],[2024,0.04590825267390936],[2025,0.045389604453587515]]; median 0.03777403090994381. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 13.9% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 392991000; owner earnings 36057000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2019: growth capex 141500000; upkeep 375294000; owner earnings 587487200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24085631142261482.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2021: growth capex 208470000; upkeep 406402000; owner earnings 913708200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22815818004041116.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 696211000; owner earnings 444137200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2023: growth capex 112747868.96310866; upkeep 808342131.0368913; owner earnings 3455457268.9631085. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03262892873131703.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 611418000; owner earnings 512989400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2025: growth capex 81810835.07099903; upkeep 432068164.929001; owner earnings 588256235.070999. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1390734686579649.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,363531000],[2018,435531000],[2019,417938000],[2020,273078000],[2021,345752000],[2022,654833000],[2023,581520000],[2024,608092000],[2025,616954000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 115995000 SGD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KEP1.F SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.2 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:38.195Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13691882075144035. Price 6.946; FX 0.6958119292237442; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 3.39 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 3.53 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 3.78 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 4.00 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 4.52 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 4.63 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 4.35 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 4.13 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 3.96 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 3.94 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 3.89 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 3.99 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 4.72 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 4.69 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 4.58 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 5.23 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 4.87 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 4.75 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 5.08 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 4.93 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 4.51 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 4.25 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 4.02 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 4.27 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 3.84 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 3.80 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 3.75 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 3.84 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 3.97 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 4.04 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 4.34 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 3.88 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 4.25 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 4.13 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 3.79 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 3.89 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 4.48 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 4.40 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 4.46 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 4.34 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 4.06 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 3.33 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 3.88 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 3.74 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 3.77 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 3.23 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 2.71 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 2.72 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 2.71 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 3.12 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 3.28 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 3.08 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 3.11 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 3.37 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 3.32 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 3.26 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 3.41 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 3.37 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 3.24 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 3.28 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 3.44 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 3.27 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 3.31 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 3.69 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 3.88 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 4.34 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 4.75 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 4.63 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 4.43 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 4.85 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 5.09 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 4.87 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 4.89 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 5.20 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 4.97 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 5.16 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 3.76 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 3.84 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 4.17 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 4.27 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 4.48 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 4.97 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 4.66 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 4.70 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 4.26 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 4.58 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 4.78 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 4.92 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 4.93 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 4.98 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 4.66 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 4.56 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 4.41 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 4.51 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 4.19 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 4.57 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 4.41 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 4.70 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 4.75 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 4.79 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 4.85 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 4.72 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 4.33 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 4.63 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 4.92 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 5.73 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 5.75 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 5.78 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 6.73 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 6.77 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 6.75 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 7.17 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 8.67 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 7.90 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 7.17 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 7.29 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 7.36 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 7.74 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 7.81 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 7.76 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 6.96 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2021: low EUR 1.43 per share, central EUR 1.46 per share, high EUR 1.50 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 2.30 per share, central EUR 2.57 per share, high EUR 2.92 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 2.87 per share, central EUR 3.19 per share, high EUR 3.62 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 3.06 per share, central EUR 3.36 per share, high EUR 3.75 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 3.37 per share, central EUR 3.71 per share, high EUR 4.17 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:23.154Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.