# KGHM Polska Miedz (KGH.WAR)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KGH.WAR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:59.133Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2026.

Listing currency: PLN. Reporting currency: PLN.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: PLN 324.25 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low PLN 91.02 per share, central PLN 120.66 per share, high PLN 139.84 per share. Buy at or below the central value PLN 120.66 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:59.133Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.8% at the stated quote. About 5.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.4%). required return 10.4% a year (PL 10-year bond 6.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.41×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.19×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.01×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 14.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.3%

- FY2017: 10.8%

- FY2018: 6.4%

- FY2019: 5.6%

- FY2020: 7.8%

- FY2021: 15.1%

- FY2022: 11.6%

- FY2023: 1.1%

- FY2024: 6.6%

- FY2025: 7.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.46×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: PLN 6.4B

- Net income, five-year total: PLN 14B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 11.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -7.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 1.75×

- FY2024: 0.34×

- FY2025: 0.33×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.3% vs 6.6%

- Per-share earnings: -21.86 to 14.34 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: PLN 38B

- Cumulative retained earnings: PLN 18B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: PLN 36.20

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: PLN -21.86

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: PLN 14.34

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: PLN 220M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: PLN 16B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: PLN -21.86

- FY2017: PLN 7.84

- FY2018: PLN 8.29

- FY2019: PLN 7.11

- FY2020: PLN 9.00

- FY2021: PLN 30.78

- FY2022: PLN 23.86

- FY2023: PLN -18.49

- FY2024: PLN 14.34

- FY2025: PLN 18.44

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.21×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.09×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -25.7%

- FY2017: -4.4%

- FY2018: -5.8%

- FY2019: -9.2%

- FY2020: -9.0%

- FY2021: 3.9%

- FY2022: 4.3%

- FY2023: -19.0%

- FY2024: -3.4%

- FY2025: -0.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 17.8% a year for ten years · sales +20.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:03.272Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 17.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +20.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22/2023-12-31/ESEF/PL/0/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22-2023-12-31-pl/reports/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22-2023-12-31-pl.xhtml; observed 2024-05-01.

- FY2017: PLN 20B 

- FY2018: PLN 21B 

- FY2019: PLN 23B 

- FY2020: PLN 24B 

- FY2021: PLN 30B 

- FY2022: PLN 34B 

- FY2023: PLN 33B 

- FY2024: PLN 35B 

- FY2025: PLN 36B 

- FY2026: PLN 44B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 17.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22/2023-12-31/ESEF/PL/0/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22-2023-12-31-pl/reports/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22-2023-12-31-pl.xhtml; observed 2024-05-01.

- FY2016: 20.4% 

- FY2017: 25.3% 

- FY2018: 19.3% 

- FY2019: 17.4% 

- FY2020: 19.7% 

- FY2021: 21.1% 

- FY2022: 18.6% 

- FY2023: 8.1% 

- FY2024: 16.9% 

- FY2025: 17.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in copper; annual sales are PLN 36.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2025: revenue 36366000000; grossProfit 6240000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KGH.WAR: KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally. The company offers copper cathodes, wire rod, Cu - Ofe wire, Cu - Ag wire, and granules; silver and gold; molybdenum; rhenium; nickel; and lead, sulphuric acid, copper and nickel sulphate, and selenium products, as well as platinum, palladium, and rock salt products. It holds a portfolio of mines located in Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa, and the United States. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Lubin, Poland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.1% to 17.2% during 2023–25; it earns 7.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22/2023-12-31/ESEF/PL/0/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22-2023-12-31-pl/reports/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22-2023-12-31-pl.xhtml (filed 2024-05-01); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 8.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 16.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09295939705497952],[2017,0.10781027182004084],[2018,0.06415762577268265],[2019,0.05568401380681456],[2020,0.07793341246875855],[2021,0.1510671277187868],[2022,0.11570235712606083],[2023,0.011030133791579723],[2024,0.06617300202951018],[2025,0.07273983127423891]]; median 0.07533662187149873. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 72.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 11% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2017: growth capex 1095594261.641799; upkeep 1700405738.358201; owner earnings 1476594261.641799. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7419738042484515.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2018: growth capex 171241205.44055796; upkeep 2543758794.559442; owner earnings 959241205.440558. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17851735775040098.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2019: growth capex 1464000000; upkeep 2061000000; owner earnings 1282600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1414314673319819.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2020: growth capex 959505303.3131981; upkeep 2519494696.686802; owner earnings 1227305303.313198. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7817983844141675.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2021: growth capex 1659000000; upkeep 2269000000; owner earnings 6027000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.27526132404181186.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2022: growth capex 1893000000; upkeep 2239000000; owner earnings 4623200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.40945665340024223.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2024: growth capex 2181760165.5315185; upkeep 3749239834.4684815; owner earnings 978160165.5315185. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.230473333930932.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); FY2025: growth capex 873664001.9542885; upkeep 4699335998.0457115; owner earnings 1207664001.9542885. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7234330083040412.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); Incremental return on capital 0.1096491390340021, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); Dividend observations: [[2016,300000000],[2017,200000000],[2018,300000000],[2019,300000000],[2020,300000000],[2021,300000000],[2022,600000000],[2023,200000000],[2024,300000000],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 31.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KGH.WAR SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 31.795 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 17.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-01); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.24505780408357458. Price 324.25; FX 1; discount 0.10372; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -36.10182693377622 → FY2025 6.038320009771442. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (PLN per share)

- 2016-10: PLN 71.08 per share

- 2016-11: PLN 87.36 per share

- 2016-12: PLN 92.48 per share

- 2017-01: PLN 123.90 per share

- 2017-02: PLN 129.00 per share

- 2017-03: PLN 115.80 per share

- 2017-04: PLN 123.10 per share

- 2017-05: PLN 105.70 per share

- 2017-06: PLN 110.65 per share

- 2017-07: PLN 122.30 per share

- 2017-08: PLN 126.10 per share

- 2017-09: PLN 117.40 per share

- 2017-10: PLN 122.95 per share

- 2017-11: PLN 106.80 per share

- 2017-12: PLN 111.20 per share

- 2018-01: PLN 110.05 per share

- 2018-02: PLN 105.00 per share

- 2018-03: PLN 86.82 per share

- 2018-04: PLN 93.64 per share

- 2018-05: PLN 84.72 per share

- 2018-06: PLN 88.00 per share

- 2018-07: PLN 96.50 per share

- 2018-08: PLN 90.80 per share

- 2018-09: PLN 89.10 per share

- 2018-10: PLN 86.88 per share

- 2018-11: PLN 89.72 per share

- 2018-12: PLN 88.88 per share

- 2019-01: PLN 94.16 per share

- 2019-02: PLN 101.30 per share

- 2019-03: PLN 107.00 per share

- 2019-04: PLN 102.85 per share

- 2019-05: PLN 95.00 per share

- 2019-06: PLN 103.50 per share

- 2019-07: PLN 94.40 per share

- 2019-08: PLN 78.32 per share

- 2019-09: PLN 80.00 per share

- 2019-10: PLN 83.64 per share

- 2019-11: PLN 89.90 per share

- 2019-12: PLN 95.58 per share

- 2020-01: PLN 91.20 per share

- 2020-02: PLN 70.54 per share

- 2020-03: PLN 59.82 per share

- 2020-04: PLN 76.98 per share

- 2020-05: PLN 86.28 per share

- 2020-06: PLN 90.90 per share

- 2020-07: PLN 126.05 per share

- 2020-08: PLN 136.85 per share

- 2020-09: PLN 118.00 per share

- 2020-10: PLN 118.15 per share

- 2020-11: PLN 149.00 per share

- 2020-12: PLN 183.00 per share

- 2021-01: PLN 188.40 per share

- 2021-02: PLN 189.35 per share

- 2021-03: PLN 190.20 per share

- 2021-04: PLN 194.60 per share

- 2021-05: PLN 202.00 per share

- 2021-06: PLN 187.65 per share

- 2021-07: PLN 194.60 per share

- 2021-08: PLN 178.30 per share

- 2021-09: PLN 157.65 per share

- 2021-10: PLN 153.40 per share

- 2021-11: PLN 141.05 per share

- 2021-12: PLN 139.40 per share

- 2022-01: PLN 139.55 per share

- 2022-02: PLN 165.50 per share

- 2022-03: PLN 172.90 per share

- 2022-04: PLN 144.95 per share

- 2022-05: PLN 145.55 per share

- 2022-06: PLN 118.90 per share

- 2022-07: PLN 115.45 per share

- 2022-08: PLN 88.50 per share

- 2022-09: PLN 87.66 per share

- 2022-10: PLN 95.66 per share

- 2022-11: PLN 115.80 per share

- 2022-12: PLN 126.75 per share

- 2023-01: PLN 140.65 per share

- 2023-02: PLN 127.40 per share

- 2023-03: PLN 122.25 per share

- 2023-04: PLN 119.40 per share

- 2023-05: PLN 104.60 per share

- 2023-06: PLN 112.40 per share

- 2023-07: PLN 124.05 per share

- 2023-08: PLN 114.10 per share

- 2023-09: PLN 111.95 per share

- 2023-10: PLN 112.25 per share

- 2023-11: PLN 115.30 per share

- 2023-12: PLN 122.70 per share

- 2024-01: PLN 112.45 per share

- 2024-02: PLN 107.80 per share

- 2024-03: PLN 114.15 per share

- 2024-04: PLN 140.65 per share

- 2024-05: PLN 151.70 per share

- 2024-06: PLN 150.35 per share

- 2024-07: PLN 136.10 per share

- 2024-08: PLN 138.80 per share

- 2024-09: PLN 159.35 per share

- 2024-10: PLN 149.45 per share

- 2024-11: PLN 127.25 per share

- 2024-12: PLN 115.00 per share

- 2025-01: PLN 125.75 per share

- 2025-02: PLN 129.45 per share

- 2025-03: PLN 125.45 per share

- 2025-04: PLN 119.55 per share

- 2025-05: PLN 122.90 per share

- 2025-06: PLN 128.90 per share

- 2025-07: PLN 127.80 per share

- 2025-08: PLN 128.00 per share

- 2025-09: PLN 160.00 per share

- 2025-10: PLN 193.85 per share

- 2025-11: PLN 211.70 per share

- 2025-12: PLN 280.80 per share

- 2026-01: PLN 332.10 per share

- 2026-02: PLN 335.50 per share

- 2026-03: PLN 267.90 per share

- 2026-04: PLN 302.80 per share

- 2026-05: PLN 349.55 per share

- 2026-06: PLN 331.25 per share

- 2026-07: PLN 307.95 per share

- 2026-08: PLN 357.20 per share

- 2026-09: PLN 329.55 per share

- 2026-10: PLN 344.65 per share

## Annual estimated value (PLN per share)

- FY2016: low PLN 82.71 per share, central PLN 93.18 per share, high PLN 106.92 per share

- FY2017: low PLN 78.42 per share, central PLN 88.52 per share, high PLN 101.77 per share

- FY2018: low PLN 54.06 per share, central PLN 60.62 per share, high PLN 69.23 per share

- FY2019: low PLN 58.62 per share, central PLN 65.88 per share, high PLN 75.41 per share

- FY2020: low PLN 74.50 per share, central PLN 82.89 per share, high PLN 93.91 per share

- FY2021: low PLN 95.14 per share, central PLN 106.65 per share, high PLN 121.74 per share

- FY2022: low PLN 103.91 per share, central PLN 116.98 per share, high PLN 134.13 per share

- FY2023: low PLN 102.16 per share, central PLN 114.84 per share, high PLN 131.47 per share

- FY2024: low PLN 95.94 per share, central PLN 108.49 per share, high PLN 124.95 per share

- FY2025: low PLN 73.87 per share, central PLN 98.42 per share, high PLN 114.31 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:43.866Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22/2023-12-31/ESEF/PL/0/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22-2023-12-31-pl/reports/G30CO71KTT9JDYJESN22-2023-12-31-pl.xhtml); period 2023-12-31, filed 2024-05-01.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.