# Kraft Heinz (KHC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KHC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:37.510Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $23.28 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $22.47 per share, central $25.31 per share, high $29.09 per share. Buy at or below the central value $25.31 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:37.510Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.7% at the stated quote. About 10.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 3.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.21×

- FY2017: 0.23×

- FY2018: -0.39×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.14×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: -0.19×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -10.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 33.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.9%

- FY2017: 11.9%

- FY2018: -17.8%

- FY2019: 5.2%

- FY2020: 3.3%

- FY2021: 6.2%

- FY2022: 7.9%

- FY2023: 9.5%

- FY2024: 4.3%

- FY2025: -10.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.2B

- Net income, five-year total: $3.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 0.97×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.9% vs 4.3%

- Per-share earnings: 2.93 to 2.26 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: -$78B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$5.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -3.2%

- Per-share value change: -$0.67

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.93

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.26

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.09

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.93

- FY2017: $8.91

- FY2018: -$8.36

- FY2019: $1.58

- FY2020: $0.29

- FY2021: $0.82

- FY2022: $1.91

- FY2023: $2.31

- FY2024: $2.26

- FY2025: -$4.93

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -12.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.09×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.43×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.4%

- FY2017: 8.7%

- FY2018: -12.3%

- FY2019: -1.6%

- FY2020: -4.6%

- FY2021: -4.7%

- FY2022: -0.1%

- FY2023: -1.2%

- FY2024: -1.6%

- FY2025: -12.6%

## Holders

- [Warren Buffett](https://gigainvestors.com/BRK): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Prem Watsa](https://gigainvestors.com/FFH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mark Hillman](https://gigainvestors.com/HCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bruce Berkowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/fairx): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 45% since Apr 2022 · "Revenue has fallen for eight straight quarters compared with a year earlier." (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · sales -3.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:00.955Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.2% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-13: KHC Q1 Earnings Call: Lowered Guidance Amid Declining Volumes and Elevated Investment ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/khc-q1-earnings-call-lowered-103839299.html))

- 2025-07-30: Kraft Heinz Swings to Loss on Impairment Charge, as Sales Fall Again ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8028b7ac-755c-3bd8-af3b-71913664458f/kraft-heinz-swings-to-loss-on.html))

- 2025-10-29: Kraft Heinz Lowers Full-Year Outlook on Weak Consumption Trends ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/4f3742b3-b1fa-371e-bc69-199a2690c9bf/kraft-heinz-lowers-full-year.html))

- 2026-03-06: Kraft Heinz Scraps Split To Fund Product Push And Lower Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kraft-heinz-scraps-split-fund-120846145.html))

- 2026-05-06: Kraft Heinz stock gains on earnings beat, revenue tops estimates ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/kraft-heinz-stock-gains-earnings-114432974.html))

- 2026-07-01: Kraft Heinz (KHC) Is Up 5.1% After Global Reorganization Into Three Regional Operating Hubs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/kraft-heinz-khc-5-1-031201407.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1637459/000163745926000009/khc-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: $26B 

- FY2017: $26B 

- FY2018: $26B 

- FY2019: $25B 

- FY2020: $26B 

- FY2021: $26B 

- FY2022: $26B 

- FY2023: $27B 

- FY2024: $26B 

- FY2025: $25B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 33.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1637459/000163745926000009/khc-20251227.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: 34.8% 

- FY2017: 34.6% 

- FY2018: 34.0% 

- FY2019: 32.6% 

- FY2020: 35.0% 

- FY2021: 33.3% 

- FY2022: 30.7% 

- FY2023: 33.5% 

- FY2024: 34.7% 

- FY2025: 33.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are USD 24.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1637459/000163745926000009/khc-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 24942000000; grossProfit 8309000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KHC.US: The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in North America and internationally. Its products include condiments, sauces, dressings, and spreads; cheese, frozen potato products, and other frozen meals; meal kits, frozen snacks, and pickles; dry packaged desserts, refrigerated ready to eat desserts, and other dessert toppings; ready to drink and powdered beverages, and liquid concentrates; American sliced and recipe cheeses; mainstream coffee, coffee pods, and premium coffee; and cold cuts, bacon, and hot dogs. It offers its products under the Kraft, Oscar Mayer, Heinz, Philadelphia, Lunchables, Velveeta, Ore-Ida, Capri Sun, Maxwell House, Kool-Aid, Jell-O, ABC, Master, Quero, Golden Circle, Wattie's, Pudliszki, and Plasmon brands, as well as Bagel Bites, Claussen, A1, and Cool Whip. It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative, and independent grocery accounts; convenience, value, and club stores; pharmacies and drug stores; mass merchants; foodservice distributors; institutions, including hotels, restaurants, bakeries, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and various e-commerce platforms and retailers. The company has a strategic partnership with the National Football League. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 33.3% to 34.7% during 2023–25; it earns 5.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 33.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0986974401726111],[2017,0.11896998742928976],[2018,-0.17839329969906179],[2019,0.051812304809259566],[2020,0.03300956972054507],[2021,0.06183327834598042],[2022,0.07867983588008733],[2023,0.09500487465481555],[2024,0.04310190283504495],[2025,-0.09961138567069054]]; median 0.05682279157761999. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 436 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1247000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 3686000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1217000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 10755000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 768000000; cash acquisitions 199000000; owner earnings 2161000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0920869967607589.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 596000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 729000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 905000000; cash acquisitions 74000000; owner earnings 1017000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0727630285152409.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 916000000; cash acquisitions 481000000; owner earnings 2380000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.20210084033613446.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 41175006.55246818; upkeep 971824993.4475318; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2844175006.5524683. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.014476959560367545.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1024000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2668000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,3764000000],[2017,2888000000],[2018,3183000000],[2019,1953000000],[2020,1958000000],[2021,1959000000],[2022,1960000000],[2023,1965000000],[2024,1931000000],[2025,1898000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KHC.US.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: cash repurchases 436000000 USD.

### What could break it

"Commodity, energy, and other input prices are volatile" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1637459/000163745926000009/khc-20251227.htm (filed 2026-02-12); Commodity, energy, and other input prices are volatile

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.016069717407168838. Price 23.28; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.9236641221374046 → FY2025 -4.784330244313395. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $88.95 per share

- 2016-11: $81.65 per share

- 2016-12: $87.32 per share

- 2017-01: $89.29 per share

- 2017-02: $91.51 per share

- 2017-03: $90.81 per share

- 2017-04: $90.39 per share

- 2017-05: $92.20 per share

- 2017-06: $85.64 per share

- 2017-07: $87.46 per share

- 2017-08: $80.75 per share

- 2017-09: $77.55 per share

- 2017-10: $77.33 per share

- 2017-11: $81.37 per share

- 2017-12: $77.76 per share

- 2018-01: $78.39 per share

- 2018-02: $67.05 per share

- 2018-03: $62.29 per share

- 2018-04: $56.38 per share

- 2018-05: $57.48 per share

- 2018-06: $62.82 per share

- 2018-07: $60.25 per share

- 2018-08: $58.27 per share

- 2018-09: $55.11 per share

- 2018-10: $54.97 per share

- 2018-11: $51.12 per share

- 2018-12: $43.04 per share

- 2019-01: $48.06 per share

- 2019-02: $33.19 per share

- 2019-03: $32.65 per share

- 2019-04: $33.24 per share

- 2019-05: $27.65 per share

- 2019-06: $31.04 per share

- 2019-07: $32.01 per share

- 2019-08: $25.52 per share

- 2019-09: $27.94 per share

- 2019-10: $32.33 per share

- 2019-11: $30.50 per share

- 2019-12: $32.13 per share

- 2020-01: $29.20 per share

- 2020-02: $24.77 per share

- 2020-03: $24.74 per share

- 2020-04: $30.33 per share

- 2020-05: $30.47 per share

- 2020-06: $31.89 per share

- 2020-07: $34.38 per share

- 2020-08: $35.04 per share

- 2020-09: $29.95 per share

- 2020-10: $30.59 per share

- 2020-11: $32.94 per share

- 2020-12: $34.66 per share

- 2021-01: $33.51 per share

- 2021-02: $36.38 per share

- 2021-03: $40.00 per share

- 2021-04: $41.29 per share

- 2021-05: $43.59 per share

- 2021-06: $40.78 per share

- 2021-07: $38.47 per share

- 2021-08: $35.99 per share

- 2021-09: $36.82 per share

- 2021-10: $35.89 per share

- 2021-11: $33.61 per share

- 2021-12: $35.90 per share

- 2022-01: $35.80 per share

- 2022-02: $39.22 per share

- 2022-03: $39.39 per share

- 2022-04: $42.63 per share

- 2022-05: $37.83 per share

- 2022-06: $38.14 per share

- 2022-07: $36.83 per share

- 2022-08: $37.40 per share

- 2022-09: $33.35 per share

- 2022-10: $38.47 per share

- 2022-11: $39.35 per share

- 2022-12: $40.71 per share

- 2023-01: $40.53 per share

- 2023-02: $38.94 per share

- 2023-03: $38.67 per share

- 2023-04: $39.27 per share

- 2023-05: $38.22 per share

- 2023-06: $35.50 per share

- 2023-07: $36.18 per share

- 2023-08: $33.09 per share

- 2023-09: $33.64 per share

- 2023-10: $31.46 per share

- 2023-11: $35.11 per share

- 2023-12: $36.98 per share

- 2024-01: $37.13 per share

- 2024-02: $35.28 per share

- 2024-03: $36.90 per share

- 2024-04: $38.61 per share

- 2024-05: $35.37 per share

- 2024-06: $32.22 per share

- 2024-07: $35.21 per share

- 2024-08: $35.43 per share

- 2024-09: $35.11 per share

- 2024-10: $33.46 per share

- 2024-11: $31.97 per share

- 2024-12: $30.71 per share

- 2025-01: $29.84 per share

- 2025-02: $30.71 per share

- 2025-03: $30.43 per share

- 2025-04: $29.10 per share

- 2025-05: $26.73 per share

- 2025-06: $25.82 per share

- 2025-07: $27.46 per share

- 2025-08: $27.97 per share

- 2025-09: $26.04 per share

- 2025-10: $24.73 per share

- 2025-11: $25.51 per share

- 2025-12: $24.25 per share

- 2026-01: $23.74 per share

- 2026-02: $24.61 per share

- 2026-03: $22.49 per share

- 2026-04: $22.66 per share

- 2026-05: $24.01 per share

- 2026-06: $23.62 per share

- 2026-07: $25.85 per share

- 2026-08: $25.67 per share

- 2026-09: $22.72 per share

- 2026-10: $23.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $23.92 per share, central $26.80 per share, high $30.64 per share

- FY2017: low $33.40 per share, central $37.88 per share, high $43.85 per share

- FY2018: low $12.05 per share, central $13.64 per share, high $15.76 per share

- FY2019: low $20.75 per share, central $23.41 per share, high $26.95 per share

- FY2020: low $22.52 per share, central $25.30 per share, high $29.00 per share

- FY2021: low $11.36 per share, central $12.60 per share, high $14.25 per share

- FY2022: low $9.57 per share, central $10.83 per share, high $12.51 per share

- FY2023: low $21.10 per share, central $23.91 per share, high $27.66 per share

- FY2024: low $21.57 per share, central $24.45 per share, high $28.28 per share

- FY2025: low $23.31 per share, central $26.16 per share, high $29.95 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1637459/000163745926000009/khc-20251227.htm); period 2025-12-27, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.