# Kinder Morgan (KMI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KMI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:39.195Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $32.82 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $14.35 per share, central $16.33 per share, high $18.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value $16.33 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:39.195Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.4% at the stated quote. About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.28×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.26×

- FY2018: 0.27×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.28×

- FY2021: 0.24×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.29×

- FY2025: 0.28×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.29×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 8.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 8.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 52.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 43.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 17.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.7%

- FY2018: 6.3%

- FY2019: 2.5%

- FY2020: 4.7%

- FY2021: 7.7%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: 7.7%

- FY2024: 8.2%

- FY2025: 8.8%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 9.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.08×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $14B

- Net income, five-year total: $13B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 128.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.46×

- FY2022: 1.22×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 0.89×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.7% vs 8.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.15 to 1.18 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Market cap gain: $15B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$3.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 29.0%

- Per-share value change: $1.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.18

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.38

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $486M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $18B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.32

- FY2017: $0.08

- FY2018: $0.72

- FY2019: $0.97

- FY2020: $0.08

- FY2021: $0.82

- FY2022: $1.16

- FY2023: $1.11

- FY2024: $1.18

- FY2025: $1.37

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 3

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.94×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.70×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.1%

- FY2017: -5.6%

- FY2018: -4.4%

- FY2019: -3.4%

- FY2020: -6.1%

- FY2021: -5.3%

- FY2022: -3.3%

- FY2023: -5.6%

- FY2024: -4.2%

- FY2025: -3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.7% a year for ten years · sales +6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:01.337Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-31: Pipeline Expansion Gains Momentum While Executive Share Sale Shapes Kinder Morgan (KMI) Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pipeline-expansion-gains-momentum-while-054807005.html))

- 2025-12-09: Kinder Morgan (KMI): Reassessing Valuation After 2026 Growth Outlook and Ninth Straight Dividend Increase ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinder-morgan-kmi-reassessing-valuation-130848647.html))

- 2026-01-22: Kinder Morgan Posts Record Earnings as LNG Demand Fuels Pipeline Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinder-morgan-posts-record-earnings-020000978.html))

- 2026-06-26: Kinder Morgan's Growth Story Rides on LNG and Surging Power Demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/kinder-morgans-growth-story-rides-143100068.html))

- 2026-07-23: KMI Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Natural Gas Pipeline Strength ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/kmi-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-161800354.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506307/000150630726000011/kmi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: $14B 

- FY2018: $14B 

- FY2019: $13B 

- FY2020: $12B 

- FY2021: $17B 

- FY2022: $19B 

- FY2023: $15B 

- FY2024: $15B 

- FY2025: $17B 

- FY2026: $18B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 54.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506307/000150630726000011/kmi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2017: 51.8% 

- FY2018: 52.5% 

- FY2019: 57.0% 

- FY2020: 59.8% 

- FY2021: 48.1% 

- FY2022: 40.4% 

- FY2023: 53.1% 

- FY2024: 36.7% 

- FY2025: 43.7% 

- FY2026: 54.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas midstream; annual sales are USD 16.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506307/000150630726000011/kmi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 16950000000; grossProfit 7401000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.7% to 53.1% during 2023–25; it earns 7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 53.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 36.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506307/000150630726000011/kmi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 43.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.04696144986035512],[2018,0.06349414681857757],[2019,0.025154342995291724],[2020,0.04710982658959537],[2021,0.07691104705202129],[2022,0.03373552319879921],[2023,0.07747603737520509],[2024,0.08195797572099052],[2025,0.08785833690215167],[2026,0.09266074134046888]]; median 0.07020259693529943. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 18.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2882000000; owner earnings 35000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 927000000; upkeep 2261000000; owner earnings 183000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 5.065573770491803.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 627000000; upkeep 2297000000; owner earnings 1609000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3896830329397141.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 2270000000; owner earnings 2331000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1707000000; owner earnings 637000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1281000000; owner earnings 2704000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1621000000; owner earnings 3190000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 2345000000; owner earnings 2391000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2629000000; owner earnings 2338000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506307/000150630726000011/kmi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 573000000; upkeep 2453000000; owner earnings 3056000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1875.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Incremental return on capital 1.2873383464176058, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,1272000000],[2017,1276000000],[2018,1774000000],[2019,2163000000],[2020,2441000000],[2021,2525000000],[2022,2504000000],[2023,2529000000],[2024,2557000000],[2025,2604000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 12.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KMI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 12.699 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

The expectations for 2026 discussed above involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are not guarantees of performance.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506307/000150630726000011/kmi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Excluding our recently divested interest in EagleHawk, we also expect to invest almost $3.3 billion in expansion projects and contributions to joint ventures, or discretionary capital expenditures, during 2026. The expectations for 2026 discussed above involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are not guarantees of performance. Many of the factors that will determine these expectations are beyond our ability to control or predict, and because of these uncertainties, it is advisable not to put undue reliance on any forward-looking statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1261443558274261. Price 32.82; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.5699954400364797 → FY2025 1.374718848403059. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $20.43 per share

- 2016-11: $22.20 per share

- 2016-12: $20.71 per share

- 2017-01: $22.34 per share

- 2017-02: $21.31 per share

- 2017-03: $21.74 per share

- 2017-04: $20.63 per share

- 2017-05: $18.76 per share

- 2017-06: $19.16 per share

- 2017-07: $20.43 per share

- 2017-08: $19.33 per share

- 2017-09: $19.18 per share

- 2017-10: $18.11 per share

- 2017-11: $17.23 per share

- 2017-12: $18.07 per share

- 2018-01: $17.98 per share

- 2018-02: $16.20 per share

- 2018-03: $15.06 per share

- 2018-04: $15.82 per share

- 2018-05: $16.68 per share

- 2018-06: $17.67 per share

- 2018-07: $17.78 per share

- 2018-08: $17.70 per share

- 2018-09: $17.73 per share

- 2018-10: $17.02 per share

- 2018-11: $17.07 per share

- 2018-12: $15.38 per share

- 2019-01: $18.10 per share

- 2019-02: $19.16 per share

- 2019-03: $20.01 per share

- 2019-04: $19.87 per share

- 2019-05: $19.95 per share

- 2019-06: $20.88 per share

- 2019-07: $20.62 per share

- 2019-08: $20.27 per share

- 2019-09: $20.61 per share

- 2019-10: $19.98 per share

- 2019-11: $19.61 per share

- 2019-12: $21.17 per share

- 2020-01: $20.87 per share

- 2020-02: $19.17 per share

- 2020-03: $13.92 per share

- 2020-04: $15.23 per share

- 2020-05: $15.80 per share

- 2020-06: $15.17 per share

- 2020-07: $14.10 per share

- 2020-08: $13.82 per share

- 2020-09: $12.33 per share

- 2020-10: $11.90 per share

- 2020-11: $14.38 per share

- 2020-12: $13.67 per share

- 2021-01: $14.08 per share

- 2021-02: $14.70 per share

- 2021-03: $16.65 per share

- 2021-04: $17.05 per share

- 2021-05: $18.34 per share

- 2021-06: $18.23 per share

- 2021-07: $17.38 per share

- 2021-08: $16.27 per share

- 2021-09: $16.73 per share

- 2021-10: $16.75 per share

- 2021-11: $15.46 per share

- 2021-12: $15.86 per share

- 2022-01: $17.36 per share

- 2022-02: $17.40 per share

- 2022-03: $18.91 per share

- 2022-04: $18.15 per share

- 2022-05: $19.69 per share

- 2022-06: $16.76 per share

- 2022-07: $17.99 per share

- 2022-08: $18.32 per share

- 2022-09: $16.64 per share

- 2022-10: $18.12 per share

- 2022-11: $19.12 per share

- 2022-12: $18.08 per share

- 2023-01: $18.30 per share

- 2023-02: $17.06 per share

- 2023-03: $17.51 per share

- 2023-04: $17.15 per share

- 2023-05: $16.11 per share

- 2023-06: $17.22 per share

- 2023-07: $17.71 per share

- 2023-08: $17.22 per share

- 2023-09: $16.58 per share

- 2023-10: $16.20 per share

- 2023-11: $17.57 per share

- 2023-12: $17.64 per share

- 2024-01: $16.92 per share

- 2024-02: $17.39 per share

- 2024-03: $18.34 per share

- 2024-04: $18.28 per share

- 2024-05: $19.49 per share

- 2024-06: $19.87 per share

- 2024-07: $21.13 per share

- 2024-08: $21.57 per share

- 2024-09: $22.09 per share

- 2024-10: $24.51 per share

- 2024-11: $28.27 per share

- 2024-12: $27.40 per share

- 2025-01: $27.48 per share

- 2025-02: $27.10 per share

- 2025-03: $28.53 per share

- 2025-04: $26.30 per share

- 2025-05: $28.04 per share

- 2025-06: $29.40 per share

- 2025-07: $28.06 per share

- 2025-08: $26.98 per share

- 2025-09: $28.31 per share

- 2025-10: $26.19 per share

- 2025-11: $27.32 per share

- 2025-12: $27.49 per share

- 2026-01: $30.49 per share

- 2026-02: $33.27 per share

- 2026-03: $33.53 per share

- 2026-04: $32.87 per share

- 2026-05: $31.08 per share

- 2026-06: $31.97 per share

- 2026-07: $32.18 per share

- 2026-08: $32.24 per share

- 2026-09: $30.15 per share

- 2026-10: $33.43 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $3.04 per share, central $3.43 per share, high $3.95 per share

- FY2017: low $0.90 per share, central $1.02 per share, high $1.19 per share

- FY2018: low $2.25 per share, central $2.38 per share, high $2.55 per share

- FY2019: low $1.23 per share, central $1.36 per share, high $1.52 per share

- FY2020: low $3.50 per share, central $3.92 per share, high $4.49 per share

- FY2021: low $9.47 per share, central $10.73 per share, high $12.40 per share

- FY2022: low $15.29 per share, central $17.38 per share, high $20.15 per share

- FY2023: low $12.21 per share, central $13.90 per share, high $16.14 per share

- FY2024: low $11.57 per share, central $13.17 per share, high $15.29 per share

- FY2025: low $13.57 per share, central $15.44 per share, high $17.93 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:23.649Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1506307/000150630726000011/kmi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.