# Kennametal (KMT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KMT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:39.589Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $30.99 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $27.35 per share, central $32.35 per share, high $37.55 per share. Buy at or below the central value $32.35 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:39.589Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.3% at the stated quote. About 10.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.53×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.20×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.0%

- FY2018: 17.3%

- FY2019: 18.1%

- FY2020: 1.0%

- FY2021: 6.0%

- FY2022: 10.1%

- FY2023: 9.7%

- FY2024: 9.0%

- FY2025: 7.1%

- FY2026: 18.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.27×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.0B

- Net income, five-year total: $808M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 85.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 37.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.24×

- FY2023: 1.33×

- FY2024: 1.25×

- FY2025: 1.51×

- FY2026: 1.19×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.3% vs 9.0%

- Per-share earnings: 0.61 to 1.37 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: -$324M

- Cumulative retained earnings: $718M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 10.7%

- Per-share value change: $0.76

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.61

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.37

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.18

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $4.0M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.61

- FY2018: $2.42

- FY2019: $2.90

- FY2020: -$0.07

- FY2021: $0.65

- FY2022: $1.72

- FY2023: $1.46

- FY2024: $1.37

- FY2025: $1.20

- FY2026: $4.42

### accounting: fail

- Sloan accruals exceed 10%

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 10.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.15×

- Restructuring years, last five: 5

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -0.01×

- Accounting red flags: 2

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.21×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.9%

- FY2018: -2.6%

- FY2019: -2.2%

- FY2020: -7.6%

- FY2021: -6.8%

- FY2022: -1.4%

- FY2023: -5.5%

- FY2024: -6.7%

- FY2025: -4.5%

- FY2026: 10.9%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 23% since Feb 2026 · "Kennametal’s (KMT) Profit Outlook Pause: Tungsten Price Rally Has Likely Played Out" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +19.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:01.458Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-11: KMT Q1 Earnings Call: Tariff Mitigation, Cost Controls, and Margin Expansion Shape Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kmt-q1-earnings-call-tariff-082819248.html))

- 2025-08-06: Kennametal (NYSE:KMT) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 Earnings, Stock Drops 12.4% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kennametal-nyse-kmt-reports-sales-112450817.html))

- 2025-11-05: Kennametal Boosts FY25 Outlook; Stock Up 13% - Update ([nasdaq.com](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/kennametal-boosts-fy25-outlook-stock-13-update))

- 2026-02-05: KMT Q4 Deep Dive: Pricing Actions and Cost Initiatives Support Raised Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kmt-q4-deep-dive-pricing-053728476.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +19.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/55242/000162828026056143/kmt-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-12.

- FY2017: $2.1B 

- FY2018: $2.4B 

- FY2019: $2.4B 

- FY2020: $1.9B 

- FY2021: $1.8B 

- FY2022: $2.0B 

- FY2023: $2.1B 

- FY2024: $2.0B 

- FY2025: $2.0B 

- FY2026: $2.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 41.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/55242/000162828026056143/kmt-20260630.htm; observed 2026-08-12.

- FY2017: 32.0% 

- FY2018: 35.1% 

- FY2019: 35.0% 

- FY2020: 28.1% 

- FY2021: 30.0% 

- FY2022: 32.2% 

- FY2023: 31.1% 

- FY2024: 30.6% 

- FY2025: 30.4% 

- FY2026: 41.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in tools & accessories; annual sales are USD 2.4 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/55242/000162828026056143/kmt-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-12); FY2026: revenue 2356698000; grossProfit 969956000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); KMT.US: Kennametal Inc. engages in development and application of tungsten carbides, ceramics, and hard materials and solutions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Metal Cutting and Infrastructure. The Metal Cutting segment provides milling, hole making, turning, threading, and toolmaking systems used in the manufacture of airframes, aero engines, trucks and automobiles, ships, and various types of industrial equipment under the Kennametal, WIDIA, WIDIA Hanita, and WIDIA GTD brands through its direct sales force, a network of independent and national distributors, integrated supplier channels, and digitally. Its Infrastructure segment produces engineered tungsten carbide and ceramic components, earth-cutting tools, and metallurgical powders, such as compacts, nozzles, frac seats, and custom components used in oil and gas and petrochemical industries; rod blanks and abrasive water jet nozzles for general industries; earth cutting tools and systems used in underground mining, trenching and foundation drilling, and road milling; tungsten carbide powders for the oil and gas, aerospace, and process industries; high temperature critical wear components, tungsten penetrators, and armor solutions for aerospace and defense; and ceramics used by the packaging industry for metallization of films and papers under the Kennametal brand through a direct sales force and distributors. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.4% to 41.2% during 2024–26; it earns 9.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 30.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/55242/000162828026056143/kmt-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-12); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 41.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06011526235369067],[2018,0.17266242081912625],[2019,0.18115177099867374],[2020,0.009670319384364407],[2021,0.05957224384684238],[2022,0.10120348671422057],[2023,0.0966112277028022],[2024,0.08951127234318913],[2025,0.07115505794777424],[2026,0.18632059334618734]]; median 0.09306125002299567. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 10.1 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 118018000; owner earnings 38776000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2018: growth capex 62324000; upkeep 108680000; owner earnings 200180000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3113397941852333.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2019: growth capex 2597659.5090458095; upkeep 209745340.4909542; owner earnings 144231659.5090458. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.018010328092237553.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 127302000; owner earnings 53620000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 96924000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 179377000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 94385000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 158099000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 107561000; cash acquisitions 4010000; owner earnings 136449000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.029388269609890876.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 88971000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 140650000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/55242/000162828026056143/kmt-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-12); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 76905000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 408639000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); Dividend observations: [[2017,64128000],[2018,65104000],[2019,65746000],[2020,66303000],[2021,66735000],[2022,66565000],[2023,64524000],[2024,63431000],[2025,61852000],[2026,60847000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/55242/000162828026056143/kmt-20260630.htm (filed 2026-08-12); FY2026: cash repurchases 10106000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-15); KMT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.803 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-15.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-08-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.006954385872704796. Price 30.99; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share -2.7456504039581637 → FY2026 5.277937073775574. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $28.31 per share

- 2016-11: $34.49 per share

- 2016-12: $31.26 per share

- 2017-01: $35.74 per share

- 2017-02: $37.09 per share

- 2017-03: $39.23 per share

- 2017-04: $41.58 per share

- 2017-05: $38.47 per share

- 2017-06: $37.42 per share

- 2017-07: $36.90 per share

- 2017-08: $35.00 per share

- 2017-09: $40.34 per share

- 2017-10: $43.65 per share

- 2017-11: $46.62 per share

- 2017-12: $48.41 per share

- 2018-01: $48.78 per share

- 2018-02: $41.20 per share

- 2018-03: $40.16 per share

- 2018-04: $36.45 per share

- 2018-05: $37.23 per share

- 2018-06: $35.90 per share

- 2018-07: $38.96 per share

- 2018-08: $40.84 per share

- 2018-09: $43.56 per share

- 2018-10: $35.45 per share

- 2018-11: $41.82 per share

- 2018-12: $33.28 per share

- 2019-01: $37.58 per share

- 2019-02: $37.69 per share

- 2019-03: $36.75 per share

- 2019-04: $40.70 per share

- 2019-05: $30.75 per share

- 2019-06: $36.99 per share

- 2019-07: $34.58 per share

- 2019-08: $29.89 per share

- 2019-09: $30.74 per share

- 2019-10: $30.95 per share

- 2019-11: $34.83 per share

- 2019-12: $36.89 per share

- 2020-01: $31.29 per share

- 2020-02: $27.80 per share

- 2020-03: $18.62 per share

- 2020-04: $25.61 per share

- 2020-05: $27.74 per share

- 2020-06: $28.71 per share

- 2020-07: $26.96 per share

- 2020-08: $29.02 per share

- 2020-09: $28.94 per share

- 2020-10: $31.00 per share

- 2020-11: $34.99 per share

- 2020-12: $36.24 per share

- 2021-01: $37.88 per share

- 2021-02: $37.36 per share

- 2021-03: $39.97 per share

- 2021-04: $40.16 per share

- 2021-05: $37.51 per share

- 2021-06: $35.92 per share

- 2021-07: $36.25 per share

- 2021-08: $37.18 per share

- 2021-09: $34.23 per share

- 2021-10: $39.75 per share

- 2021-11: $35.37 per share

- 2021-12: $35.91 per share

- 2022-01: $34.57 per share

- 2022-02: $31.71 per share

- 2022-03: $28.61 per share

- 2022-04: $25.73 per share

- 2022-05: $27.74 per share

- 2022-06: $23.23 per share

- 2022-07: $26.85 per share

- 2022-08: $23.44 per share

- 2022-09: $20.58 per share

- 2022-10: $26.71 per share

- 2022-11: $26.42 per share

- 2022-12: $24.06 per share

- 2023-01: $28.50 per share

- 2023-02: $28.33 per share

- 2023-03: $27.58 per share

- 2023-04: $25.96 per share

- 2023-05: $24.92 per share

- 2023-06: $28.39 per share

- 2023-07: $30.48 per share

- 2023-08: $26.47 per share

- 2023-09: $24.88 per share

- 2023-10: $23.11 per share

- 2023-11: $23.31 per share

- 2023-12: $25.79 per share

- 2024-01: $24.52 per share

- 2024-02: $25.24 per share

- 2024-03: $24.94 per share

- 2024-04: $23.53 per share

- 2024-05: $25.75 per share

- 2024-06: $23.54 per share

- 2024-07: $26.14 per share

- 2024-08: $25.87 per share

- 2024-09: $25.93 per share

- 2024-10: $25.32 per share

- 2024-11: $28.70 per share

- 2024-12: $24.02 per share

- 2025-01: $23.95 per share

- 2025-02: $22.13 per share

- 2025-03: $21.30 per share

- 2025-04: $19.48 per share

- 2025-05: $21.53 per share

- 2025-06: $22.96 per share

- 2025-07: $24.76 per share

- 2025-08: $21.43 per share

- 2025-09: $20.93 per share

- 2025-10: $21.95 per share

- 2025-11: $27.68 per share

- 2025-12: $28.41 per share

- 2026-01: $34.39 per share

- 2026-02: $40.28 per share

- 2026-03: $36.13 per share

- 2026-04: $38.71 per share

- 2026-05: $32.80 per share

- 2026-06: $35.05 per share

- 2026-07: $33.97 per share

- 2026-08: $29.34 per share

- 2026-09: $30.74 per share

- 2026-10: $30.99 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $7.06 per share, central $7.78 per share, high $8.74 per share

- FY2018: low $12.04 per share, central $12.85 per share, high $13.93 per share

- FY2019: low $7.53 per share, central $8.40 per share, high $9.50 per share

- FY2020: low $11.53 per share, central $12.17 per share, high $13.03 per share

- FY2021: low $8.34 per share, central $9.30 per share, high $10.57 per share

- FY2022: low $16.45 per share, central $18.65 per share, high $21.57 per share

- FY2023: low $17.74 per share, central $20.07 per share, high $23.18 per share

- FY2024: low $19.74 per share, central $22.31 per share, high $25.73 per share

- FY2025: low $21.04 per share, central $23.76 per share, high $27.38 per share

- FY2026: low $26.98 per share, central $31.91 per share, high $37.04 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/55242/000162828026056143/kmt-20260630.htm); period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.